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for the new year(3) with a twist.....
for the new year(3) with a twist.....
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Using 1/5 place odds I get £69.36 return
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Result(s) days 33 & 34.
1.00 E.W. Lucky 15 1 Winner 1 place Return 32.45p 1.00 E.W. Lucky 15 1 winner 2placed 1 NR 213.60p Profit / Loss 186.05p Total 674.30p I'm so pleased you don't settle bets for Paddy Power xmoneyx  |
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Bet day 39. 1.00 E.W. L15
Baile Anrai 16.00 Kempton 14-1 Wings of Icarus 14.50 Kempton 11-2 Blazing Diva 13.50 Newcastle 14-1 Beau Dandy 15.00 Newcastle 7-1 all with B365 2 x odds 1 winner, summary(s) will follow.... |
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Blazing Diva starts my bet off, and in a very poor race looks to have a decent chance. She continues to slide in the weights, and has recently been given further respite from the assessor to the tune of another 6lbs. She also looks at home on a stiff galloping track, with 2 of her 3 successes coming over C/D, the other over Carlisle’s 26F. Blazing Diva loves these underfoot conditions, and her lifetime form is best from around now until the conclusion of the season, and looks to hold a decent E.W. chance should her jumping hold up.
Wings of Icarus, like many in the contest is very unexposed, but I get the feeling connections think he is better than he’s shown (now that’s surprising from this yard!). He traveled well for a long way in his latest start over 3 miles at Ascot, with horses finishing just ahead and behind enhancing the form of that race in recent weeks. Along with the first time tongue tie and blinkers connections pop Timmy Murphy on, and off his mark of 103 coming back in trip could see him very much in the mix at the business end. Back at Newcastle Beau Dandy is also sporting first time blinkers, and could well improve for the fitting of this particular head gear. He is relatively unexposed in the context of this race, and looks certain to have some sort of a say at today’s weights, especially given the fact connections like to land a punt at this course, Beau Dandy being their sole representative of this meet. Baile Anrai, who has been drifting in the betting with a few firms, but I simply can’t have him a double figured price in my book. He is another who has been given some recent respite from the handicapper, and connections put a tongue tie on for the first time. This time last year was running a massive race before falling in a race contested by the likes of Bobs Worth and Siliniaco Conti, and was traveling as well as anything before his fall 3 out. He has been quietly punted on both of his starts this season, and I’m fairly certain we have not see the true colours of this horse in either of those races. He now has his sights lowered to a class 3 contest, and for me looks set to be in the thick of things off his new mark |
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Running Total should be 650.30p , not 674.30p as originally instructed.
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Bet for day 48. 50p E.W. Lucky 15
Mac Aeda 14.55 Haydock 25-1 Tanaten 14.40 Ascot 10-1 General Miller 15.15 Ascot 13-2 Somersby 15.50 Ascot 9-2 Bet VC.. unfortunately for me no BOG, but I'd be amazed if they were not around that mark for sp, if not shorter..... summary to follow later. |
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i fancy mac aeda is segal pick rob.
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Having work commitments tomorrow I thought I’d throw my hat in the ring early, and have decided to put my selections on with a firm that for whatever reason no longer grant me the concession of BOG. I’m very much of the opinion that a couple will go off approximately the stated prices, with the other two contracting enough to justify the necessity of getting on early.
I will start with Tatenen who kicks of proceedings in Ascots 14.40, and looks to have again been prepped with a run in a cup race at Cheltenham before a crack at an Ascot race, which he won last year. He did in fact win the previous renewal of that particular contest, and is now looking to complete a hat trick of handicaps on the course in as many runs. Lto in that race at Cheltenham at one point during the race must have traded fairly short, and looked to be traveling along nicely at the head of affairs with a little break to the pursuers on the run to the 4th last, however after almost walking through that fence he also seemed to get low at 3 out, there he was joined and quickly passed looking a spent force, appearing to get very tired very quickly from his earlier exertions. The suspicion is 3miles is just beyond his comfort zone, but if he is to get it Ascot is as likely place as any, and after some assistance from the assessor is now only 1lb higher than his last winning mark. Now over to the Grand National trial at Haydock, where plenty look to hold solid chances, but those I had thought had good winning chances are all priced up accordingly at single figures. However at very big odds I thought Mac Aeda had sound place prospects, and given the fact his form figures for the last 3 runs in February reads 2-1-1 gives me even more hope he can hit the frame. He like a fair few others looks at ease with lots of cut in the ground, and seems to run himself into form, as he’s shown in his last couple of campaigns. Lto on track looked to have be nursed into the race to perfection by Denis O’Regan, but just as he appeared on the scene with menace he quickly seemed to fold looking to stop fairly quickly, with connections now hoping a tongue tie can assist in some way. Brian Hughes takes over in the saddle tomorrow and looks to have been a good appointment on his rides for the stable in the last 12 months or so, with 5 Wins & 3places form his 13 rides, a nice 19.77 profit to level stakes. With pace assured in the race he once again will be held up and kidded into the race, and hopefully his feather weight will count for something in the very testing forecast conditions. Back over at Ascot runs General Miller, who obviously has had more than his fair share of problems being limited to only 3 runs during the best part of 3 years. He runs tomorrow of a reduced handicap mark of 139, and if he brings some of his old juvenile form to the table he could truly embarrass the handicapper, and also looks capable of running a race when fresh. He also seems at home on a softer surface, and is very much the dark horse of the race. Somersby looks a very interesting contender on the same card a half an hour or so later, and looks suited to Ascot as a venue having form figures of 3-2-2-1, those 2 runner up spots being to a rampant Master Minded. There are not many times this horse has been out of the frame during his career, with the majority of contests being grade 1 & 2’s. |
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G/L Rob
and Thank you |
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Result day 39.
1.00 E.W. Lucky 15 1 Winner 1 place Return 27.52p Profit / Loss -2.48p Total 671.82p |
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Total ^^^^ 647.82p
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Result day 48(should have been day 47)
50p E.W. Lucky 15 0 winners 0 places Return 0.00 Profit / Loss -15.00p Total 632.82p |
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Bet day 51. 50p E.W. Lucky 15
Auroras Encore 14.50 Doncaster 7-1 Shalone 15.55 Doncaster 50-1 Sovento 19.00 Kempton 11-2 Lady Of Burgundy 20.00 Kempton 15-2 Bet Fred BOG….. 3 x odds 1 winner. It maybe a little premature to suggest Auroras Encore will win today, especially given the fact he’s only came good in the spring for his last few campaigns, but since spring is just around the corner and this horse has had a few run’s already he may well be primed to strike, and his decent run Lto in the Betfred Classic at Warwick looks a healthy indicator his turn is not that far away. That day he traveled onto the heels of the principles running down the back fairly nicely, but the lack of match fitness and desperate underfoot conditions looked to conspire against him. The four that finished in front that day had all been running well and in decent winning form prior to that contest, and some reasonable form has since came out of that race. Today’s better ground is sure to help, and the drop in trip will pose no problems either, if anything it will assist his chances, with the yard in decent order presently. Now onto Shalones chances in the 15.55, and on the book looks very much up against it. However it’s fair to say this once smart hurdler has had more than his fair share of problems, and since putting Tataniano to the sword for his last win in a decent novice contest has only had 7 starts in well over 5 years. It’s hard to really assess whether he has retained enough ability in his couple of starts for current connections to ascertain if he’ll get competitive in today’s race, and after running well for a long way on his comeback race at Haydock late December it’s his latest race that has given me a little hope he may. I’ve no doubt in my mind that day he had no chance in giving lumps of weight away to the likes of the improving Kaylif Aramis and The Bear Trap, but despite a PU next to his form line ran a better race than that indicated for a 100-1 rag. That day he looked to travel well just off the speed for a lot of the contest, but turning for home just looked to go out like the proverbial light, giving the impression he still very much needed it, floundering badly in the ultra testing Ffos Las ground. The assessor has since eased him of 6lbs, and the first time cheek pieces are applied. Adrian Wintle has also assisted the horses chance with a claimer, and these amateur types may not be everyone’s cup of tea but Miss Lewis looks a very capable rider, and with those new riding combinations in place the flatter track and better ground could see him in a better light today (maybe). Now onto the poly surface at Kempton, where in the 19.00 Sovento gets my vote to run a big race. No doubt Spirit of Gondree will be on everyones short list after looking a very unlucky 3rd Lto over 10F, and looks the type that will no doubt again will have to be kidded in between horse by Winston, and will arrive on the scene late at the business end. I think however Sovento may prove a tough nut to crack over Kempton’s 11F, and having far too much use made of him over 12F Lto duly ran out of gas, giving way to the finishers, with the 1st , 2nd and 5th subsequently franking the form. Martin Harleys experienced hands takes over from the apprentice now that Sovento appears to be coming very much to hand, and is only 1lb above his last winning mark. The money that has come for him prior to his other wins has already started to arrive, which bodes very well for his chances taking into account the connections. An hour later runs Lady Of Burgundy, who is certain to see things out over today’s trip far better than the vast majority who oppose in this evenings race. Since her return last moth has ran a couple of solid enough races over 12F, and may well have finished a couple of places and lengths closer Lto if she were not hindered and boxed on the run for home, eventually plugging on a one paced 7th. She has a nice draw to cut the corners, and given a clear run should be in amongst it at the end that counts, and has a massive chance Imo. |
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Thank you
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Has Lampus found his new Bush ?
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Cheers therobter(make em pay)
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robster: Cracking write-up as always. Hope they all win for you.
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Good luck Rob, Shalone is certainly better than its two runs this year & has dropped to a decent mark, wish they had found a race nearer 20 furlongs though, should never be the rag of the field that's for sure.
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GL RObster
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Not sure what to make of Shalone, maybe the horse has a breathing problem, went from being in the process of running a decent race to being pulled up in the space of a couple of hundred yards, its had three tries at three miles now plus one of two & a half on bottomless ground, surely a drop to twenty furlongs on ground no worse than soft with another ratings cut of around 5 lbs may well see him in a better light.
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Would not rule a breathing problem out, came there tanking into the straight and went out like a light (again) before being pulled up. Hard to say whether he does not get 3 miles taking into account that potential problem, but dropping back to 20F would not do him any harm, and as you say may be relieved of another 5lbs for his trouble and qualify for a drop in to 0-120 company. It will be interesting to see how quickly he is turned out, and at what trip / class.
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I played Lady of B PL.......some ride
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Bet for day 54. 1.00 E.W. Lucky 15.
Woody Waller 14.20 Newcastle 14-1 Rapidolyte De Lada 14.55 Newcastle 14-1 What A Friend 15.50 Kempton 20-1 Baby Shine 16.25 Kempton 14-1 William Hill BOG 2 x odds 1 winner. write up later..... |
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G/L
Thank You |
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Result day 51.
50p E.W. Lucky 15 0 winners 1 N/R return 1.00 Profit / Loss - 14.00p Total 618.82p |
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With the Newcastle Card falling to snow I will give my analysis for my Kempton selections, and having put my bet on last night I have technically now 2 x E.W. singles and an E.W. double to the tune of 4 quid units.
I will start with my N.b. so to speak, the mare Baby Shine in the 16.25 on the card. I did like the look of her Lto, and although steadily backed the previous evening, morning and throughout the day of the race, she never really looked like landing those wagers from a good half mile out. It’s only in her current campaign has she been started off prior to January, and has not really built on the good promise she has shown in her prior couple of seasons by establishing herself as a regular graded performer. She was spared a hard race when her chance had gone Lto, and was merely going through the motions well before the final flight and the run for home, in fact I’ve seen horses being pulled up move quicker. The assessor now cuts her some slack to the tune of 5lbs, and with that connections lower her sights further in grade. She still has plenty to do with Quadick Lake on the book from that run Lto, but Imo Baby Shine looked a tired horse on the run in and simply never gave her true running. There are a few lower down in the handicap that are very unexposed, but she is only having her 13 start in all spheres and at only 7 is far from exposed herself. We will now roll back to the Racing Plus Chase, and J.P. McManus has recently purchased the fairly unexposed Wyck Hill, who since having his attentions turned to the larger obstacles has been nothing short of a revelation in this sphere, and no doubt he has plenty more to give. However at his fairly large double figured price my attentions were caught my What A Friend, who is classy and quirky in equal measures, but has a fairly good record when fresh. It’s fair to say he’s probably not the force of old, but is still rated a 161 animal by the handicapper, and this his easiest assignment for some time. Paul Nicholls has decided to put a claimer up for the first time in the horse’s career, and is certain to appreciate the better ground than most. He is friendless in the market at the minute, and more often than not flatters to deceive, but you would not put it past this horse to put it all in when they least expect it….is that today?, only time will tell. |
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M8
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Thank you
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Well done
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well done lad......
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WD Rob again
Ifs only too |
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Bet day 55. 50p E.W. Lucky 15
The Sawyer 15.25 Towcester 7-1 Badgers Cove 16.30 Towcester 3-1 Time To Think 15.15 Fontwell 4-1 The Bishops Baby 16.50 Fontwell 20-1 B365 2 x odds 1 winner, BOG.. write up to follow.... |
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Of today’s selections the biggest priced one is the one I fancy the most, and The Bishops Baby at her price of 20-1 Imo looks more than reasonable value, and looks weighted to figure with some respite from the assessor for time off with an injury. She is no world beater by any stretch of the imagination, but has been on the whole fairly consistent at a modest level during her last few seasons. Although her only career success has came in soft, I think the slightly better ground she encounters today will suit her perfectly, and has put in many a decent effort on such a surface. She also seems to be fairly happy with Fontwell as a venue, and although she’s yet to get her head in front she has never been unplaced over today's C/D from her only 3 previous attempts (3-2-2). As already alluded too, she’d previously been off 642 days prior to last months bumpers for jumpers return over 16F at Kempton, and was given a very sympathetic return to action by Leighton Aspell all things considered. That day she was anchored at the rear of the field stone dead last for the majority of the contest, and was allowed to pick her way through the field under her own terms, a never nearer 7th. Today’s step back up to 19F or so will suit, and regular pilot Tom Cannon is back in the plate, and she looks certain to give her running having been given some nice recovery time from that previous contest.
Now onto The Sawyer, who obviously is not the force of old at very much the twilight of his career, and his ever diminishing mark a reflection of his fall from grace. However he has had his previously lofty sights well and truly lowered in today’s class 4 contest, with nothing in the field looking likely to run in the caliber of races The Sawyer has previously contested, with many of them even in this lowly event looking out of their comfort zone. He usually comes to hand early in the year, with 6 of his 8 career wins coming in the previous month. However is couple of runs in January this season were both in class 2 events, and on the evidence of those couple of spins that class of race now sadly looks beyond him. In today’s line up the highest rated horse is 115, and dropping back to 20F on this stiffer course may just see him back in the winners enclosure. Back over at Fontwell runs a horse I have a lot of time for, pardon the pun, but Time To Think done me a massive favour on a previous thread and hopefully will do me another on my current one. Just like her previous couple of campaigns she’s looked to have needed the run, and hopefully just like in those previous seasons her comeback run will have brought her on plenty for today’s race. Ground and trip look fine, and seems suited to tight tracks so I will surmise Fontwell will also be ok as a venue, and with Andrew Thornton back in the plate looks primed to give her running. Over at Towcester Badgers Cove is the penultimate leg of the bet, but he was very much the last one to be added to my slip. He looks well suited to the test Towcester provides, and has a fairly good record here from his 4 visits, and on his hurdling form he looks well in here off 114. He was no match for a reasonable recruit to the chasing sphere in Sydney Paget Lto, with that horse only finding the vastly improving Emperors choice a half length to good in a class 2 contest at Carlisle recently. This looks as straight forward chance as he’s had so far in the chasing realms, and should be good enough to register his first win in this sphere given the opposition. |
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Result day 54.
1.00 E.W. L 15 1 winner + 2 N/R's return 84.00p Profit / Loss + 54.00p Total 672.82p |
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Well done, I don't get to read this regularly but good to see you in profit. It's no mean feat if you can turn a profit over long-term with this form of betting, good luck.
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U CANT BELIEVE THAT Badgers lets me dow for an E.W.Treb as posted on a thread 4/1 W 11/2 W
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Bet for day 61. 1.00 E.W. Lucky 15
Mr Gardner 15.50 Newbury 12-1 Princely Player 15.15 Newbury 14-1 Quentin Collonges 14.55 Doncaster 9-1 Beyeh 15.30 Doncaster 9-1 Bet Fred BOG, write up to follow..... |
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Thank you and G/L
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hav u worked out returns not betting e/w so doubling unit amount?
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