for the new year(3) with a twist.....

All the best robster and v well done on last two years success

Will follow with interest

Good luck therobster, hopefully 2013 will  be 'lucky' for you.

Bet day 5. 50p E.W. Lucky 15

Mauricetheathlete  14.45 Chepstow    10-1
Monbeg Dude        15.20 Chepstow    12-1
Soft Song          15.00 Sandown      5-1
Fruity O'Rooney    15.40 sandown     10-1

All above with Betfred BOG 3x odds 1 winner.

Mauricetheathlete   10-1

In today’s 14.45 I simply can’t get away from the E.W. appeal Mauricetheathlete makes, and like a few in the race looks well suited to these stamina sapping underfoot conditions. His last couple of runs have been fairly sound, and if anything they at least advertise his wellbeing. He drops to his last winning mark and connections have also applied some head gear to aid his cause. He was a decent 3rd Lto behind Fred The Shred, but these revised terms and feather weight should at least account for that rival, and will be staying on more dourly than most when push comes to shove, running his usual honest race around C/D.

Monbeg Dude 12-1
Today’s Welsh National will take all the getting the conditions, my idea of the winner is the improving Monbeg Dude, who connections have booked the right man for the type of ride he look’s to need. Jamie Moore did well too get this horse anchored at the rear Lto after looking very fresh in the early part of that contest, and for most of the second circuit had to continually take a pull as his horse was going supremely well. But when he let the handbrake off his mount made up his ground effortlessly in the soft conditions, and although he did not put the contest to bed decisively, he was fighting out the finish with a couple of decent stayers and Imo would have stretched away from those rivals if the was further. In the last 12 renewals of the race over 91% of the winners have either been Irish or French bred (41%Irish), with almost 60% of winners have carrying 10-05 or less. He will do for me in a wide open affair, with improvement looking a certainty.

Soft Song 5-1

The penultimate race at Sandown sees Soft Song reappear from his excellent run over C/D behind Petit Robin, and that race was far, far more competitive than todays assignment being a listed class 1, and was a fancied 13-2 shot for it. Today his price of 5-1 seems more than fair, given the fact that connections are negating the 5lb rise the incurred for that decent effort with a very highly rated conditional in Michael Nolan. Lto was only his 4th lifetime hurdle start, and the experience of his last few run’s on our shores should have built up some confidence, and looks just the type to go on improving with racing. He won a few races on the level in France, 1 in vsoft ground and the other contest the going was described as heavy, so he looks certain to appreciate todays going at Sandown and he’s my idea of the winner.

Fruity O’Rooney 10-1

The concluding race on Sandown’s card in terms of unraveling form is as hard as any race today, but certain bits of information have lead me to the door of Fruity O’Rooney, and I’m happy to have him as the concluding leg of my bet. He very much looks like he’s running himself into some form, and was still in there pitching  with a squeak in the Hennessey with a few to jump before his stamina gave way, and the big boy’s arrived. Is he the reason why Jamie Moore is not riding in the Welsh National??? Could have ridden at least Harouet, and you would have thought possibly turned down the ride on Monbeg Dude?? Fruity O’Rooney looks primed to give his running, and has been dropped 3lbs for his gallant effort Lto in the Hennessey and looks capable of hitting the frame or better.

GL with this new angle Rob

Good luck Robster, try to check your thread daily
you always try to put some good price tips
with good write ups.Unlike so many who now clutter this forum

Thanks guys, obviously a little different this year with my betting being exclusively Lucky 15’s, but essentially my approach is the same, and if I can finish the year off in profit this time round (doubling is at least the target) Imo it would be a greater feat than the last couple. I will still be putting up selections as and when on the MANL thread, and do have a small amount E.W. on those, but not the sort of stakes I’m accustomed to due to commitment's during the coming year.

"With work and home commitments"

Get your facts right

Stakes should be from the racing bank. The racing bank should be separate from any 'household ' expenses/budgets. So'commitments' shouldn't influence the size of the bank/stake........


Yes facts you are absolutely right regarding a betting bank, it should be a total separate entity from anything to do with your household bills, drawings and any commitments etc, but to say your bank should have nothing to do with any current or future commitments is a little flippant, especially at the level I bet at. I have afforded myself a bank of 500 quid for my coming venture, knowing this amount of bank will give me at least a decent crack at my goal at the denominations I’ve chosen to work with, and absorb any long term losses much easier. If I had of chosen to start with a bank of 2K and approached my gambling like the last couple of years and lost this (which anyone has the potential to do, no matter how small that potential), I would really be struggling with other things I need to pay for this year as 2K is a fair bit of money to me, so in this respect “commitments” have had an influence on my bank personally, and as advised in my opening statement I’m not going to put on the line what I can’t afford to loose.

Xmoneyx, my angle for the previous couple of years has been as stated above, 20 quid per point, and some days (not very often) I could have up to 10-12pts staked, on average I’d say 3-4pts per day…. you do the math’s with 20 quid a point and a bank of 500(what I can comfortably afford) could not withstand any great loosing run, especially if it came in January.

Madhatters, the Mrs. would throw my PC out of the window, or file for divorce if my time was spent trawling through form and footage a per the amount it was last year….. the latter part’s not so bad though? …. Is it?

GeorgeB, Robsters selections are quite often in the most difficult h'caps of the day and i think he has done marvellously to make a good profit for the past 2 years, and although i haven't seen a breakdown of last years figures i,m pretty sure it included some very long losing runs. Don't really think this is the type of subsciption service based on one's own interpretation of form that some people would be willing to pay for. Who is Big Sam? Well done again Robster will provide a long term interest for the new year, good luck, can you bring up last years final postings and analysis please.

Maurice let me down for an E.W.5 timer

Mind...I had a V good day

Happy new tear Rob

stewarts rise, tbh, I don't know what sort of market there is out there for the likes of BS13, and it would be interesting to know how many have followed him over to the 'dark side'!
Presumably they have some sort of following on here, and robster has been known to move the market!

Putting the work in watching the videos and studying the form is a time consuming business - like having a full time job at the height of the Flat season, so I'd imagine trying to put the necessary work in and hold down a full time job at the same time would be nigh on impossible!

Evening guys, George you make an excellent point regarding going through races thoroughly being very time consuming, and also affording yourself the necessary time to look through re-runs etc.. Although I tend to skim through race cards initially to see if any note book horses are running, or for certain trainers that target certain race’s, after this I usually concentrate my efforts to just 2 or 3 races per day (usually the well contested handicaps), a decent analysis of only a few such events can keep you occupied for a fair time. Unfortunately I’ve no longer such spare time on my hands to undertake such analysis of certain races, but still try breaking down races in a manner that allows me to form selections.

My intention for doing these threads was to generate debate, allow others to consider my angle into a race, as well as helping with my own personal discipline. As stated in the past I have never had any intention of charging for my efforts, nor will I be asking for any such subscriptions in the future. Unlike plenty have crowed on the forum they have came across the holy grail of betting, or have just been in the boozer talking with certain trainers etc, or another good start to some of these fantasy threads is … my man in joe blogs yard tells me this one will sluice up tomorrow, a very small minority will be legitimate, but the vast won’t. There are plenty of decent tipsters around that get paid and have subscription services such as Tom Segal, Henry Ricks, Mel Collier and Hugh Taylor to name but a few with a higher profile. They have had excellent records over the years which have stood the test of time, Imo I’m leagues away from those guys in terms of knowledge and analysis, but quite happy to plod on within this forum putting up what I can, when I can with the knowledge I’ve accrued throughout the years regarding tracks and trainers, the form book and also what I see with my eyes.

Did crunch some numbers on last years thread at the end Stewarts, but here it is again for your perusal….

Please find below this year’s numbers crunched…..


                    No. selections     Winners          P / L at SP       P/L at adv

January               31                 6                +18 3/4pts       +20 pts

February              19                 1                - 17 pts          - 16 pts

March                 27                 4                 + 6 pts          + 9 ½ pts

April                 21                 1                 - 14 pts           - 9 pts

May                   22                  2                  - 12 ¾pts        + 3pts

June                   26                  1                 - 20 pts          - 19 pts

July                   13                   0                  -13 pts            - 13 pts

August                  8                   0                    - 8 pts            - 8 pt

September           15                   2                    - 6 ¼ pts         - 1pt

October             31                   6                    + 13 pts        + 29 pts

November            23                   3                   - 2 ½ pts        + 7 ½ pt

December            18                    3                   - 4 ¼ pts         + ½ pt

Totals              256                  29                     - 59 pts        + 3 ½ pt


The table illustrates a 1pt single win at both industry S.P. and advised prices on all selections, which is fairly dire reading by anyone’s standards. However due to the E.W. nature of my betting, and the inclusion of E.W.doubles into my strategies, is in my eye’s proof that being a successful punter does not necessarily mean you have to bang in winners day in day out.

In this years thread, if my calculations are correct I have invested a total of 700.5 pts which has yielded a profit of 167 ¾ pts, and annual profit on points invested of approximately 24 %.

However I choose to see it this way….. I’ve made a 167.75 % return on my initial investment at the start of the year of 2K, and no high street bank is going to give you those rates.


Happy New Year, and all the best for 2013 with your punting

Kind regards, therobster

Lets hope Mrs Robster is not one for looking over your shoulder & reading your comments about her
Or you could end up with different twist of something
Good Luck

Don't do yourself down btw
Its not the third year for nowt

Work must be summat special to keep you away from doing this full time

Bet for day 12. 50p E.W. Lucky 15  Sunny Hill Boy  14.25 Warwick 25-1
                                   Quentin Collonges  15.35 Warwick  12-1
                                   Topolski            14.40 Kempton  33-1
                                   On Trend            15.15 Kempton 11-1

All with B365 BOG, x 2 odds one winner.


Tomorrows racing at Kempton and Warwick are where I’m personally venturing in my quest for winners, and I’m chancing my arm on a few at very long odds, with my hopes of a return of sorts placed heavily on the place part of the bet.



I will start with Sunny Hill Boy who looks to have been discarded by A.P. McCoy, appearing by the betting to be the stables third string. That may well be the case, but I just simply can’t have him a 25-1 shot tomorrow given his comeback run in the big 3mile brush hurdle event at Haydock in November. That day prior turning in he looked likely to be an oblique back number, with the horse looking very much in need of the outing in that very soft ground. However he responded admirably to Maurice Linehan’s urgings, and ran on very nicely to be a very unlikely 5th. We all know his target will be the Grand National at Aintree, but never the less is well capable of running a big race off tomorrow’s mark of 140, with an old friend in Alan Berry taking the reigns who has been involved with this horse right from the start, and is 2 from 4 on him to date.

Now onto Henry Daly’s grey charge Quentin Collonges, who made his seasonal debut at Doncaster mid December, and having backed him for that particular contest I was fairly disappointed with his underwhelming display. However on reflection some positives could be gleaned from that run, as for a fair chunk of it he traveled fairly nicely for Andrew Tinkler despite his jumping being a proverbial mile off his A game. Regardless of showing little or no respect for the entire back straight on the final circuit, to his credit  he was still just off the pace turning in with just a semblance of a chance. That chance however was short lived, but did keep on for pressure quite nicely given it was his first run back, which he looked very much like he’d benefit from. He now steps up to an extreme test, which Imo will suit him very well, and could be in the shake up if brushing up his fencing.

In the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton a case can be made for plenty of the runners, and although current form has not lead me to the door of the chances of Topolski, other factors have swayed me in. Both of his runs this season have looked very much needed, and on that pretence I can’t help feeling this horse could have been targeted for this race by his connections, who have been known to land a plot or two in the past with fairly limited resources. The Arbuthnot yard look to be in fairly good order, having had plenty running well and some winners recently from there limited stock, which bodes well for Topolski. Like his first couple of runs in this current campaign again tomorrow he is likely to go off an unconsidered outsider, but has at least been helped by the assessor to the tune of 7lbs for those previous runs, and has also been stepped up further in trip,and with all of his jumping wins coming this side of the New Year previously he could run well at huge odds.

I’ve thrown On Trend in as he was another I liked a couple of runs back, and I’m certain we have not see his true colours yet this season. I’m also sure we will see him in a much better light stepping up in trip, and he won’t mind the ground either. He looks to have plenty of scope and time on his side, and Imo has the potential to make his mark look silly and could hit the frame at very rewarding odds.

going in for the kill i see

For a 15 stake not a bad return on a bingo bet facts especially with an odds on winner included. Keep up the excellent work Robster.

10/01/2013
15:20    Bet Winnings    15 Wins from 15 lines
Cool Sky (Win), Brave Spartacus (Win), Chac Du Cadran (Win)
Rule 4 Applies, Funky Munky (Win)

Includes Lucky 15 Bonus and Guaranteed Price Bonus    £1,116.07

stuck your ON TREND  in my placepot  perm

Many thanks  Robster

Bet for day 19....  1 E.W. Lucky 15. all BOG B365 1/4odds a place 1-2-3. 2x odds 1 winner

Al Khan         14.00 6-1
Sole Danser     14.35 7-2
Loyalty         15.10 9-1
Sulis Minerva   15.45 8-1

Will give a brief analysis for my selections tomorrow if the meeting goes ahead, which it should.

Pasiondana 14.35 Wol 5-2
Devout 15.35 Wol 2-1
Athletic 16.35 Wol 6-1
Lean On Pete 17.35 Wol 3-1

wolv doesn't look good

Ave temp -4 tonight

Tomorrow  -2.  0 at best