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******** BETTING FOR A LIVING ********
******** BETTING FOR A LIVING ********
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Replies: 245
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Football betting only involves 2 runners and you have a far greater chance of winning
3 runners hth |
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2 runners
3 possible outcomes  |
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FFS 2 Runners many possible outcomes
Horse racing,too many possible outcomes including>Will the thing come out of the gate ok.will it get kicked in running etc etc Thanks FEN and ILWAB |
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Chances of winning are not related number of outcomes they are related to discrepancy in odds to true chance, but then again I suspect your definition of 'chances of winning' is 'what chance do I have of getting this next bet right' which is of course completely wrong
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Chances of winning are not related number of outcomes they are related to discrepancy in odds to true chance
This is exactly it in a nutshell. If you are betting horses, football teams, flies crawling up the wall, whatever, you will only make money by backing at prices greater than that horse's/team's chance of winning. The number of competitors/outcomes is utterly irrelevant. The skill is in accurately guaging the horse's/team's correct price. Failure to do so will always, always result in long-term loss. |
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Never before have I witnessed so many people that constantly lose money gambling post as if they have got this game stitched up.
Living in denial is a very strange thing indeed Horse racing is a sport well worth watching,once you are gamling at horse racing you are in a minefield |
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Its also easier to validate ones own overall losing position by suggesting that no one wins rather than take the time and effort to seek out the solutions
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The skill is in accurately guaging the horse's/team's correct price. Failure to do so will always, always result in long-term loss.
Failing to gauge a price correctly will also soon put you in the poor house,dont make me laugh I add>If you dont know how to spell gauge correctly>You should not be gambling |
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OliasOfSunhillow I am winning
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I dont think spelling is a particularly important ingredient in GAMLING
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I agree spelling meanz nathing
I was joking  |
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I have a strategy that works for me and Ive been doing it for several years now. It wouldn't suit everyone. My mate had 2 weeks holiday and followed everything I did but he couldn't help having a bit here, a bit there and then chasing a bit here and there. He works for a living and I do this and, even though he knows every bet I do he just would not have the discipline.
My week so far has been pretty easy. No bets Monday. Four bets Tuesday. Four bets yesterday. Three today. One tonight. Three possibles tomorrow. Four possibles Saturday. There is always the possibilty of something unusual happening and I have no control over that. I can have 3 losing days a month but I have never had a spectacularly losing day ever. I've had a biggish bet on Frankel to stay unbeaten at 7/4 with PP. I've given a little bit back by laying him at very short prices in-running but if he continues to be 1/5 and shorter from now on I will come out of it very well, thanks. I'm sorry if that sounds like b ull sh i t but they are the facts. I don't win large amounts, small is beautiful in my opinion. Keep it simple stupid is a motto to follow. There are at least 38 races today I wouldn't even look at. |
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folks can we keep the slagging off for some other threads, this thread is very helpful to all so lets keep it friendly. ta
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small is beautiful or the dripping tap fills the bucket
thanks for the input brig |
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brigust thanks for the input,can I ask do you concentrate solely on horse racing or other sports as well
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brigust1 Thank you for your interesting posts>out of interest,did you back SNA when it ran a stinker in Ireland a while back?
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Valuebetting
brigust1 Posts are interesting,are you aware that for every 1 honest post here at betfair there are 32.......? |
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Failing to gauge a price correctly will also soon put you in the poor house,dont make me laugh
I add>If you dont know how to spell gauge correctly>You should not be gambling Many apologies for the spelling mistake. I was trying to make a point a little too rapidly I think. |
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LittleSuzieLays
Date Joined: 31 Oct 11 Add contact 21 Jun 12 10:24 Never before have I witnessed so many people that constantly lose money gambling post as if they have got this game stitched up. You took the words right out of my mouth. Everyone on here thinks they know what it takes to profit from Gambling yet 95%+ of them are doing their absolutes. |
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Valuebetting Why not ask all the Pros to PM you their bets for a month (obviously before the off
 ),in this way you would be able to see how they do it |
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listen to big boss,2/1 coulpled=1/2
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betlarge No offence meant (I was joking), I once knew a millionaire that signed his cheques with an X
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value bets sapphire6/4 camelot8/11,so you think 1/1.
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Red Hiney Monkey
Red Hiney Monkey 21 Jun 12 10:50 Joined: 13 Sep 05 | Topic/replies: 1,758 | Blogger: Red Hiney Monkey's blog LittleSuzieLays Date Joined: 31 Oct 11 Add contact 21 Jun 12 10:24 Never before have I witnessed so many people that constantly lose money gambling post as if they have got this game stitched up. You took the words right out of my mouth. Everyone on here thinks they know what it takes to profit from Gambling yet 95%+ of them are doing their absolutes. LaughLaugh Why do you think these posters carry on in this way,I have followed racing for many years and have placed some very large bets,I am winning at the moment due to good luck and nothing else |
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GH no just horse racing. Suzi, no I didn't. I think I said earlier I never bet or lay a horse first time out. Makes for unacceptable risk at a silly price. You couldn't back him because sometimes AOB's improve for the run even though he had been in Meydan. You couldn't back the Oxx horse because SNA is a better horse and if he was right he would beat him. Yo couldn't lay either fr the same reason and you couldn't bet or lay the rags at those prices. A race avoided. There are others. (Hope I got the Oxx bit right from memory).
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susie
I was thinking of starting a serious thread that everyone could contribute to but the last time we tried that was a few years ago and we had to set up a web site instead due to the idiots on here who just come o here to ruin good threads but yes I would like to start some kind of project up, see how it go's |
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brigust1 Thank you for your reply and honesty,due to the fact that SNA had run at Meydan I would have placed a large bet and done my conkers,due to circumstances beyond my control I did not get a bet on SNA (I was very lucky)
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Thanks for the reply brigust.
Littlesuzi I think sna was a certainty in the coronation though,even at the price. |
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Valuebetting That sounds good, good luck
The problem with forums is that it only takes a few idiots to start the ball rolling,what happens is that the sensible ones (myself included) sometimes feel the need to become idiots so as to be able to communicate with the idiots at their level Good luck with your betting and please go steady>This sport can soon break you. brigust1 Is good to take advice from Have you read through the below topic? It's good http://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/28810999/for-the-new-year-2?origpost_id=516761285&pg=1 |
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"I think sna was a certainty in the coronation though,even at the price"
That is a contradiction of terms |
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Well put Littlesuzielays but please dont "dumb down" to speak to some forum members as I have always respected your wise comments and good manner so keep it up please
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A freind of mine from africa once said that "in his village they say that if a donkey kicks you and you kick the donkey back, then you are worse than the donkey" ,very wise words indeed.
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bf_fananatic Point taken and good luck today with your ratings
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Thank you, fingers and calculations crossed
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bf
donkey |
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its a good one that and very true.
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I like the Donkey one.
Brig . . . Apolgise if i came over a blunt a bit earlier its years spent on here i guess  You sir speak a lot of sense. Still wont have num 5 tho!!! Be lucky . . Love vic mel. |
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You need no.5 Fen, trust me.
Look you guys I am no-one secial. I haven't got any special contacts or psychic powers. I wasn't born with a silver spoon and am just working class. I just do exactly what all of you know you should be doing. There are far too many races so I select those I can work on. I never bet in handicaps, with Bf they are wide open for fiddles etc too risky. That means I can plan my whole week easily. I keep my bets the same except for very, very special circumstances. I never chase and by selecting your races and sticking to it that is eliminated. I keep records every day. You all now the rules you should be working to but sadly most of you can't live without the buzz. It really is simple, honestly. I cannot remember the last time I said 'I shouldn't have backed that'. |
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Me neither.
Every bet i have/do has a reason behind it, if not may as well feed a fobt. Im on about num 5 never listen to anybody?? Ive been listening and reading all morning. |