Patience fella - plenty days ahead ........ we hope .....

By the way I like your thread - flat racing is my game .....

Up to now your thread appears to have avoided the head bangers - long may it continue ....

Good Luck Geton.

I am going to take my chances e.w. with Arte Del Calcio @ 6-1. Pulled fiercly on debut for the first 3 furlongs and never settled. When asked the question looked green and wasn't knocked about. As you say now gelded and got a fair draw today. Hopefully that may mean he settles better.  The lay off would be a slight concern but he wouldn't have to be a superstar to land this. 6-1 today means he should be ready to give a good account.

Red Trump was supported late on debut but despite that didn't show much to inspire me. 4-1 is short enough.

Lanarkshire could be anything but also at the prices i'm going to pass.

Agree with all your comments re somemothers

Others will need to step up to be involved.

GL ALL

Nip and Tuck getting well supported. Can't help thinking with connections the handicap mark will be too tempting after today....

was MJ born in Lanarkshire?

i did wonder if that was the case.

havent seen the race yet.

sounded like red trump was still green in the closing stages.

getting a bit boring now last three beat at 1.41, 1.07 and 1.13.

good effort. traded very low. thought it was gonna win. had a small win and larger place bet. cheers.

SOUTHWELL - 3.00

I will start with the horse im backing here Cape Safari who is currently trading around 3/1 on BF. I just think she has loads in her favour against the other 2 horses at the head of the betting. Her handicap mark of 67 looks about fair that should be enough to take this with race fitness on her side as well. Its hard to know exactly if your horse will act on this horrible surface but the same goes for all of the horses in the market here but Cape Safari is by Cape Cross who has a 11% strike at the track. I do think her running style will suit here as well she is uncomplicated and has galloped to the line on both her last 2 starts at lingfield and been up on the lead which is another massive plus for this course. At 3/1 she has a lot fewer questions to answer than the others and rates a good bet.

Dubai Sunshine probably wont be inconvenienced by by this surface either on breeding, by dubawi who has 19% strike rate here, in fact he has a 19% strike rate just about everywhere which is very impressive. Breeding aside there is still a lot of guess work involved in backing this horse at around 3/1 tho after showing next to nothing in 2 poor all weather maidens this winter. The step up in trip will probably suit but is he even going to be fit for this on his third run for handicap mark? obviously gelded in the 81 days since we last saw him, i dont know how much work u can do with a horse on the gallops who has just lost his manhood. If it doesnt get a good start from stall 9 he could also find himself in tough spot facing kick back, the negatives just go on and on. Basically its 3/1 because its Michael Bells simple as that.

The other horse at the front of the betting Henry George is again only there because its mark johnstons. The maiden he ran in at Redcar was actually a really good one for the track and he did alright until about half way before getting beaten 26 lengths and hang into the centre of the track. If this wasnt MJ's it would be 33/1 today based on that effort. MJ is, as always in jan, in redhot form tho so does warrant respect but at 4/1 you really are guessing. I dont know what the sires strike rate at southwell is but it aint great on the all weather in general. The biggest worry for me about this horse is the draw in stall 1, i think about 1/20 horses win from the 1 box over a mile at southwell and bearing in mind every race has a stall 1 no matter how small the field that is pretty fking woeful. The track is simple deeper on the inside i guess and if they have had a little snow and had to plough it or whatever they do, it could be even worse.

Kings Wharf form isnt any good. There was only 2 horse in that race last time and they pulled clear.

The rest are either unraced from yards that never have first time out winners are had a start or two and shown nothing.

The only other horse worth a positive mention and i will be having a small interest is Swinger at 25/1 or thereabouts. He ran alright on debut at thirsk sent off 7/1 and alto the form hasn't worked out in the context of this race its right up there with the best of them. He obviously ran a stinker next time at this track which has to be worry but that was a bit of funny race and just wonder if something else went a miss because he has been off since. The winner made all at a good pace and bolted up and swinger chased him for a long way. At the likely double figure odds im willing to give him another try altho the dangers of backing horses on their 3rd run after a break are obvious.

So Cape Safari back in trip and more likely to handle the surface than not looks well overpriced at 3/1 unless you are willing to take a leap of faith on bells or johnstons its the only way to go.

I think she should be trading well under 2/1 here.

happysnappy, do you know the record of 3YO fillies in open maidens at Southwell at around this time of year?

I think I've heard it said they don't have a very good record. Though the track has been riding quicker this time around, so perhaps it isn't as relevant as when they been harrowing and the emphasis is more on stamina and strength to get through the deep surface.

7.4 now

I've had a little more on.

was a funny old market some real dogs got backed. Ok the race was bad but not that bad and 2.3 a place at one point was very generous for cape safari. obviously easy to say that now.

the winner was a strange one as well really well backed this morning then went off 4/1 and bolted up. Obvious bell has sorted it out.

Never looked like winning and was a bit surprises she wasnt ridden close to the pace. i dont like getting stuck mid div at southwell so in the end im happy enough with the place dispite making a lose on the race.

it seemed like no one had a clue but in the end it was the early morning fav and 2nd fav that pulled clear. So basically the market had it right first time around before people started guessing.

another 2nd

KEMPTON - 4.50

Chaud Lapin and Sannibel lack a turn of foot and both are dropped in trip with the intention of making all i would think.

Cats Eyes debut run was very encouraging for a yard who's horses come on a ton for a run, missed break showed really good speed mid race to get into contention. Think Cowell has also had 5 winners this year from 10 runners. I honestly thought this horse would be under 1/2 to beat this field which really isnt very good.

Its unoriginal but she will beat this lot with a turn of foot the others just don't have.

10/11 may even get even money tomorrow and i'm backing her fairly heavily.

Get it on
Get paid

I know its annoying gman but the problem is half the punters in country cant get on with the bookies anyway, at least thats the position i am in. So whilst i know its annoying i just start backing them as soon as a price i consider to be overs is available. Just have to chip away over night betting against bots basically, by nibbling at other horses in the race to effect the % of the book i think u can actually get enough on most of the time. I appreciate most people have better things to do during these hours, like sleep, but as i live down under i have the time to invest.

it doesn't help anyone else i know but then no else is going to help me get on with the bookies when they do price up so i think its pretty much every man for himself. Like you i was amazed it was even as big as 4/5 - 8/11 in the first place.

when i had betting accounts it used to really pi$$ me off too.

Yes, it looks the winner given some progress from its first run - for such a short price I would be concerned that this sire (deceased) has a 3% strike rate on dirt and only slightly better on turf - Chaud Lapin ran a blinder on its first run for this trainer over 6 furs at this track (it was an uncompetitive affair) and has every chance at around 11/2 but best of luck .......

SOUTHWELL – 3.00

Bond Style has a few pounds to find with kickingthelilly and henry bee on what they have achieved to date but at around 4/1 or 7/2 win and 11/10ish in the place market I think there are plenty of reasons to think he can bridge the gap.

Bryan Smart didn’t finish last year very well with a poor strike rate in Nov and Dec but already this year they are starting to run a fair bit better. So the fact this ones last two runs came in Nov and Dec I think we can mark him up a little anyway. His turf starts aren’t much to shout about, altho they were better contests, but his last effort over 6f at this course was encouraging at a low level, running on behind Sky Crossing after getting out paced at the top of the straight. Firstly it told us he acts on the surface and the step back up to 7f will almost certainly suit. The bare form is ok, the winner given a mark of 75 and the 4th has run consistently since and scored a couple of days ago in a handicap off 61. 53 days since his last race and with the yard back in some sort of form im sure we are going to see a fair bit of improvement.

I think Kickingthelilly was flattered to finish so close to Boudoir at Kempton last time in a fillies maiden. She takes on colts again here at Southwell which is never ideal. We are guessing as to whether she will handle the surface and the sire stats are inconclusive.

Henry Bee’s is a worry over this trip for the first time on at this track. Ran down late over 6f at Wolverhampton by a very exposed 4yo that had been pushed a long and outpaced for much of the race. Cadeaux Genereux’s have a pretty poor record on this surface at just 6% and is far from certain to see the trip out well enough.

Dilzan should be suited by this better test of stamina and made an ok debut but will want a mile plus to show his best I think and Ellison just doesn’t have maiden winners. Apart Hada Men he has won one race from 21 runners here in the last 5 years. I would have thought this one will be running over hurdles before long. The same can pretty much be said for stablemate Adili, maybe he is getting them fit on the all weather before going hurdling in the spring or something.

Handsome King has obviously had training problems weakening quickly when last seen on the turf last summer. The market will be interesting for this one.

The place part of the bet may be strongest here with Kickingthelilly, Henry Bee and Dilizan all running on the fibresand for first time. We only need one of the front two not to act on it and suddenly we are a very short price to fill one of the 1st two places. As kickingtheliily is a filly against colts and henry bee up in trip and poorly bred for the job we must have every chance of being in the thick of the action.

has been quite weak bond style.

hasnt put me off to be honest and now trading at 6/4 to place. which is massive being the only horse with course form.

quite a bit of interest in Dilzan but im still more than happy with my bet and prices i have.

i know nothing about bots apart from they basically they try and jump in front of you when you are trying to back or lay one, normally when the market is well over 100%.

looks like Bond Style is racing with just the two legs today judge on the market.

6/1 to win and people laying any price you like in the place too.

I'm keeping the faith.....just

For me, the only plus he has is his form on the surface and we all know how important that is at Southwell - he has an awful lot to find with the front two in the market as you are well aware - best of luck with your selection .....

just watched the replay and i owe Mr Pickard a pint.

didnt ride to the line otherwise i was cooked.

good luck sandnik.

LINGFIELD – 4.05

Pretty unoriginal here but going for the favourite of Mark Johnstons again Scatter Dice at 10/11 or Evens. She ran a cracking race first time out against a well backed newcomer of Charlie Hills that looked much better than a run of the mill all weather horse. He dwarfed the filly Scatter Dice and m.hills didn’t have to go for everything by any means to beat her but just looked a really nice type who is entered in the derby, it was a credit to SD that she even made a race of it. Up in trip will definitely suit her on breeding and the evidence we saw first time out.

The only three that can beat her are all unraced and none of their trainers are really renowned for sending out first time out winners. In the last 3 years Simcock has had 1 debut winning 3yo which was I’m A Dreamer, I doubt this is as good as him. Channon’s does have a derby entry as well but in the last 3 years he has sent out no debut winning 3yo’s and its only by Authorized who hasn’t exactly set the world alight in his first season as a sire. I Don’t know when these entries are made for the derby, if it was last week I would say its pretty significant but ive got a feeling its before they even race as a 2yo which is now a pretty long time ago. Tregoning has had a couple score 1st time out but not for a long time and his always come on a ton for their first run. His is also the weakest in the market.

The market will have to be watched regarding all three of them but im very happy to take MJ’s at around even money. With the benefit  of run she should be able to control this race from the off before kicking for home of the bend. The fox takes off another 3lbs putting her on 7-11 and will be very hard to catch.

6/5 - Captivity
Evens - Scatter Dice

Double them up if you’re feeling brave.