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All Weather maiden thread - 2012
All Weather maiden thread - 2012
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11/8 - Captivity
Evens - Scatter Dice Available now with the bookies. Both really generous prices. Of the 2 Captivity would be the stronger at the prices |
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nice wright ups. well thought out. profitable. very well done.
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Best of Luck Pal. Am too busy today to look at these in detail so can't help
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Good luck, will follow you in on Scatter Dice
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back to school for me.
got the market completely wrong again and more worryingly the results. Captivity - not much wrong with the bet just got taken on for the lead which cost him the race. just need his own way in front off slow fractions would have won. Scatter - always dangerous taking on 3 unraced horses from big yards and whilst MJ's both traded short in-running were well beaten at the line. first bet in a maiden i have had for a while that know i shouldnt have had. Expensive and disappointing. |
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Well don't give up
Just backed Elwazeer at Dundalk, ran a good 2nd, but not quite good enough Hopeful there will be something good for tomorrow |
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never give up.
WOLVERHHAMPTON - 4.45 I've got move away from backing all these short ones but couldnt resist 10/11 about Performing Pocket in this. His mark of 77 does look a bit on the high side but dont think hes too far from that ability. Ran really well on debut at Salisbury over 6f and it wasnt a bad run at kempton next time either. At the time it looked disappointing being sent off 4/7 and getting beat by 2 at pretty big prices but the form is working out with both the horses directly behind him coming out and winning races. Interesting the trainer last year george baker said he wasnt suited by the all weather but i dont know what he based that on other than he got beat. Very few horses dont act on polytrack its a very fair surface. Think the owner looks within his rights to take horse to another yard as Baker didnt do a great job with him in my opinion. He ran him on the all weather then blamed the surface but any half decent trainer would surely have give him a spin on a all weather gallop and then stepped him up in trip of softer ground just to see him not stay in a listed race. Sim**** horses are running really well and considering he ran his best race first time out last year it could be the time to caught him. Place That Face's form just isnt very good. They all finished in a heap last time and couple them only rated in the mid 50's were only a length or so behind him. Got 10lbs on offical ratings to find with the favourite. |
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LINGFIELD - 4.35
Going to chance a small bet on Burnhope here at around 9/2. Improved massively on his first run for scott dixon and the switch to polytrack. I didnt think that maiden he ran in behind Roedean was going to be much good but the form looks really solid now. Roedean keeps on winning and 5th came out and won next time too. Like yesterday i am taking on 2 newcomers from decent yards but at least im getting a fair price this time around. You would think one of Botti's or Noseda's would be good enough to win this on debut but at 9/2ish i think its worth an interest. Is a real shame there isnt another runner because the rest of them look carp and he would have made a nice ew. He could be of interest in the place market anyway with just 2 places depending on the price. |
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LINGFIELD - 4.05
No bet in this for me. I would be very surprised if Falcons Reign who comes out the same maiden as burnhope gets beaten and if i was punting with a bit more confidence i might even be tempted to take the 2/5. You just cant back anything else in this, Palmyra ran in a poor maiden and was beaten a fair way. But after taking a bit of a hit today i would rather try and find my way back to form with some better priced runners. |
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Tricky to know just how good Place That Face actually is
Have backed Tarooq 3:00 Lingfield for today, tough race and not a maiden |
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Very interesting thread, the happysnapper.
Many of your selections tie in with those of a maiden method I'm testing. You study a lot more factors than I use, so your write-ups are interesting. My method is extremely simple - too simple, perhaps. Anyway, yesterday, I was on the same two as yourself, but with doubts. These doubts proved justified. Today, I have picked out all the ones you mention, but, like yesterday, they are not full-on, 100% selections for me. So it's a case of taking a chance or waiting for another day. I had hoped that Performing Pocket would be my bet of the week, but, when i looked at other things such as "speed figures" it appeared that Place That Face was superior.   Dunno what to do now; some kind of dutching, maybe? After that diabolical Scatter thing yesterday, I'm not brimming with confidence, but perhaps I should have heeded my doubts about jockey and filly. Anyway, thank you for this thread, even though I hope it doesn't become too popular.   |
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i am a little concerned by the lack of strength in the market for for Performing Pocket, yard in form, spencer booked and a stone clear on offical ratings yet its still trading over even money. i do wonder if he has trained on aspecially as his form tailed off last year.
The one of interest in the race for me cerainly isnt Place that Face but Elavvson at 10/1 or better. I wrote this eariler but wanted to watch the market regards performing pocket before getting too involved.. If performing Pocket performs as his official rating suggests he will win and win very easily. In truth he could probably run 10 pounds below that and still have a favourites chance so at 10/11 he does rate as decent bet and most likely winner. I think Place That Face and Strike A Pose ran to marks in the mid to high 50’s last time which gives them a mountain to climb. Dear Ben and Mayforde Jack didn’t do anything to recommend them on debut when both sent off at big prices and Ozz is looking like going off a big price on debut. Elavssom is definitely of interest though at a double figure price. Was well beaten at the line at Chepstow over a mile but ran an encouraging race and was still front rank with about two furlongs to run with most of the runners being hard ridden and he may have been on the wrong part of the track. Jo Hughes is proving to be no mug having winners on the flat and over jumps. Again it’s a crying shame there isn’t one more place up for grabs here as he would have made a lovely ew bet. The place market will still be of interest as I reckon he can beat place that face even if that one runs right up to his best. Ive also decided to back the shortie of noseda's at 1.5 on here in the mile maiden at lingfield. The race is just awful, as bad as it gets in fact. |
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In the 4.35 at Lingfield I agree that Burnhope has a sporting chance at the price - this maiden rarely takes much winning and he is facing two inexperienced fillies - one of them may prevail but as your selection is still trading on here at around 9/2 he is the one for me ....... best of luck
It has to be said that if the money comes for Botti's filly then that would be significant as that yard knows the time of day ..... |
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6/5 a place looks fair as well crepello. only need one of the newcomers to miss fire and we will collect because he sets a fair standard.
so in summary ive backed.... 4.45 - Elavssom E/W 4.05 - Falcon Reign 4.35 - Burnhope E/W Performing Pocket is worrying weak and have traded out for the majority of my bet. leaving a small win but will still record a loss if wins and Elavsson is out the frame. not staying up to watch tonight so will check in in the morning. good luck |
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i spend many hours on the aw maidens ,vids/times/collateral/price dependant ,
got them right yesterday ,which has of course no relevance to today . thought scatter dice first run ,was well below standard required ,also way too skinny , first impression was free money pp 445 wolvs ,on further inspection , how many horses start @salisbury 6f ,return to wolvs for 6f . wolv and salisbury ,exact opposites . place the face ,exposed and moderate ,makes pp likeliest winner ,but unlike the bookies ,i dont have to play . will be pissed if pp wins 5lengths 7/4jf ,but..... concentrate on rugby and amstell |
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performing pockets ran at salisbury then kempton.
and place that face, the main one i want to take on is a none runner. |
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Elavssom is now very appealing at 7/1 ew with the bookies. the place part of the bet at 7/4 is a bargin.
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ths - not keen on that one (Elavssom) - the race he ran in (after taking out the winner) was a diabolical affair - however, if the favourite "falls down" then anything can win this ....
I generally ignore what trainers say (yesterday, one remarked that he was confident his winner would benefit fron a step up in trip after the way it ran in a 20 furs hurdle race - it had run in one hurdle race and that was over 17 furs!!) and I doubt G Baker will let us into his inner thoughts about his horses - PP looks a good thing to me but I don't bet at those prices ..... Best of luck |
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it aint his horse anymore crepello.
it does look a good thing but if there is one possible improver in the field its Elavssom who just didnt stay a mile on debut at a testing track. The race wasnt much good i agree with you but it in the context of this race it may as well been the derby haha. Ive backed Elavssom ew and had a win double Performing Pocket and the short one of Noseda's at leafy. dont mind if PP wins as long as Elvassom chases him home. good luck |
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Betting for profit in races with un-raced or unexposed runners is like trying to do a water speed record on white water rapids, all that can be gained is a wreck!
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if you had taken the troble to do your research bf fanatic you would know that this is where getons expertise lies.
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ths - I know it is with Simcock but Baker made the comment about his run on dirt when he trained the animal - that is what I was alluding to .....
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well done geton with that burnhope and thanks
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Unlucky with the first, well done with Burnhope and unlucky with the meeting being cancelled, you would have had a treble on a different day
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forgot to mention I'm a parrot lol
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well done. odds on loser then straight back with a bang. cheers.
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i was considering retiring the thread after the Noseda horse got beat
 , the third short one in 2 days i have sunk.i really should be stricker on backing short ones but i cant believe how much the Simcock horse improved for his first run, i just didnt see that coming. Kelly didnt give it a great ride but the best horse won. No maidens tomorrow and i'm not in great form so im happy enough with that. |
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keep going. your doing well. cant win everyday. you will def profit long term
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Thehappysnapper, theres a lot of false paces being set, Fox's race was pretty bad and let the horses who weren't as fit get away with an easy race, by design or not I wouldn't know, but its a game where you can't trust to what is going to happen in a race. So your calculations would go out the window. The only way to beat it is to stick to the better prices, but you know that yourself. The shorties look like penalty kicks but they have to be avoided at least most of the time.
I've enjoyed your write ups. Good luck next week if you keep the thread going. Don't divert to water sports  |
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Dasho 3:40 Kempton
Should run well from lower draw this time |
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watched the kelly ride a few times and imo it stunk.
he gave it every chance to lose the race. Firstly i would want to know why he held it up from a low draw against a field of inferior horses? Cant possible see how this would improve his chance of winning and just increased the chance of getting stuck behind slow horses. he rode it first time out and was off the bridle quite early in the race, in short i thnik he must have known the horse didnt have a great turn of foot so hes held the thing up, travelled better than anything but given horse as much to as possible to do in the home straight and at the same time allowed the only danger in the race to make up ground to draw level with him. Basically the winner was upsides him 2f but if Kelly wanted to he could have been 4 lenths in front. At this point he switched the horse to the inside rail which has been riding significantly slower all weak. 4/11 and it looked to me as if he did everything possible to get beat. |
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Not very good for racings image really rides like that
I've diverted to Ireland and have backed Trifoleum 1:50 Punchestown, thought that running anywhere near So Young was pretty smart performance, quite keen on that horse for bigger things yet. Market fairly quiet on the other runners so far, doesn't seem much confidence behind Simeon, but I'm fairly confident with mine even if it drifts |
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good shout and well done, hope u made plenty.
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cant get interested in these early maidens- the joy of the flat is come october you get the back end maidens virtually daily ,a great climax to the season.
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Thanks thehappysnapper was losing yesterday and then got back up with your Burnhope and then winner of the last at Fairyhouse, so all profit today no other bets
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5:30 Wolves
Red Shuttle didn't seem to be given too hard a time on his last run, unusual to have started career in a NHF race, so wouldn't take that as a positive. I would presume that the 20/1 SP tells us that the money wasn't down by connections, so the close 2nd was a bit better than expected, when they get a crack with the whip too near the line I always put that down to the jockey putting on a bit of a show, but thats just my opinion. But all said and done the time wasn't bad and this on paper is a 2 horse race, I don't follow breeding so can't fathom anything about Red Soles. I'm tempted to to back Belle Josephine at 7/4 in the hope it front runs and Red Shuttle gets held up again, because he didn't run on as well as he should have from the way he was travelling, this could easily be a slower run affair. |
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yeah i think red shuttle was flattered to get so close to the winner last time but going to keep an eye on the market regards the johnston horse.
this might be one to leave alone |
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trouble is the time says it was a good run
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probably just means they went a decent end to end gallop for once tho doesnt it?
standard times are set on a load of falsely run races at lingfield which i guess means they arent worth much. i never really take them into account for maidens to be honest but thats just my opinion |
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I just been checking and the 3:20 race that day has a similar time and that was a pretty low grade affair, so could be as you say
The Johnston horse is drifting well now in the betting, didn't realise it was such an expensive purchase |