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All Weather maiden thread - 2012
All Weather maiden thread - 2012
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I'm Backing Belle Josephines at the prices. 3.2 will do for me. Jockey and Trainer combo have excellent strike rate round here and won't have to run up to more than 72-74 to land this modest race. 1.8 is too short for the fav and despite the decent time i'm not sure it was that strong a race.
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I've backed the same now @ 15/8
Hopefully it will be another front runner for trainer and jockey |
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As the betting suggests this looks a two horse affair - I thought the race was very much run to suit Red Shuttle last time and the trainer of the winner that day said later that he thought his horse was better than he showed that day and will likely have blinkers on next time - in my view, Belle Josephine will need to be little better than a plater to win this very weak event - it looks a tempting price at around 2/1 but I do not back unknown quantities (plenty of other days - I hope) so I will just be watching - best of luck .....
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MJ has a 30% strike rate at distances of 1m2f+ with debutants on the all weather in the last 3 years.
not bad at all. |
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Thats an encouraging stat
I would be surprised if the fav looks as good in the paddock considering the breeding of Belle Josephine, would probably bring the betting closer once the stable vibes get passed on, as long as they are good there could be a complete turnaround in this market, it just seems false at present |
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Back for more, thanks for everybodys help getting the winner of that last race, when it went 5/2 thought the money was down the drain
Hunters Belt 4:45 Southwell looks to have a fair chance, bookies put it up at 4/1, but thats gone, was a bit slow myself and have backed at 5/2 |
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well done with Josephine guys.
only barely knew how to put one foot in front of the other but was still good enough. The 2nd was definitely massively flatter to finish 2nd on debut. I didnt play in the end but might have a go at the maidens tomorrow. good luck with hunters belt sandnik i will have a look at it in a bit....but its nots a maiden   |
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SOUTHWELL - 3.15
Pretty sure Aqua Ardens isnt really going to be trying that hard tomorrow but i still think its a bet at 5/1. Dropped back to 6f i'm guessing to try and get a handicap mark but moved quite well last time at wolverhampton under a pretty soft ride over 7f. The track will be riding really slow tomorrow and if he can stay with Derivaties over the first 3 or 4 furlongs he will be in with a shout. An older gelding against a 3yo filly on a deep southwell track in feb and Nayef has 30% strike in the there in the last 5 years. 9 winners from 30 runners. He will be with a shout because Derivatives looks a bit of hound and just isnt finishing his races off. The most worrying piece of form is kempton run over a mile, she was 2 lengths clear entering the final furlong and ended getting beat by 3 of them including Miss Astragal who just a rogue. Out battled last time but a 25/1 shot that showed nothing on her debut and whilst she definitely improved massive from first to second run she wasnt backed at all and a lot of Morrisons better ones are when they run at southwell. She just keeps finding ways to get beat and couldnt touch her at 1/5. Derivatives may be able to burn them all off early but if there is only a length or two between these inside the last couple of furlongs i know which one i would rather be on. Aqua Ardens didnt look devoid of speed last time despite his breeding. |
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WOLVERHAMPTON - 3.30
Quite a few very different opinions about this race around for this race but i think its very straightforward and Cool Hand Luke @ a shade of odds on should be taken. Firstly who every did the RP tissue must have confused Polar Auroras with a another horse when sticking him in at 7/2. its a 15 time maiden rated 55, granted this race isnt great but its not that bad and the two at the top of the market should be better than this thing. Now i know you cant be wrong about horses until after the off and maybe the guy who did the timeform write up has spotted something i havent in Cuore's debut run but to call it promising just looks plain silly to me at this stage, it was beaten 20 lengths in a shlt race after being sent off 40/1 or something off the bridle at halfway. Already gelded and already available at 32 on here. time have have him in as the 2nd pick with 4 stars, they do say he is sure to do better which i cant argue with but only because he cant possible do any worse. They have basically given it a positive write up because the yard are in form (at last after 10 years on the cold list). Maybe they let the cleaning lady have go at this race or something. I think this definitely just concerns the front two in the market and i do have concerns about the value of the Macy Anne's form at kempton on debut. The winner of the race sent of 2/5 first time out is clear pretty decent he missed the break, travelled well before winning as he liked without really coming off the bridle. Oratorian is now winning races over 6f so maybe he didnt stay or wasnt fit in this, basically he was a handicap project by the look of things. Bursting Bubbles looked like he was going to drop out the back of the TV at one stage before appearing to stay on again. The run was also 2 months ago which is longer than ideal and you have to worry if she has had a small set back since. The time was also very slow top speed in the RP gave her a mark of 7, i dont really know how top speed works but which ever way you look at 7 cant be great. Cool Hand Luke has race fitness on his side after running a really decent 3rd over course and distance last month. The 2nd has won since and 4th roedean has won 4 on the bounce.Cool Hand Lukes best two runs have come at wolverhampton and they clearly think he has retained enough ability after being backed into 13/8 last time. The only disappointing run was at warwick but that was in a much better race and i reckon something went wrong because he dropped away very quickly and was put away for 5 months after that. Maybe they just didnt have quite as ready they thought here last month and reckon he will come on plenty and build on what is already half decent form. I will be really surprised if he gets beat in this. He can go from the front and probably get his own way as well which is never a bad thing. 10/11, 5/6, 4/5, even 8/11 or 4/6 looks too big to me. If was pricing it up i would go maybe 1/3 CHL, 5/2 Macy |
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WOLVERHAMPTON - 2.30
Not having a punt in this. I backed Bond Style at Southwell last time and was fortunate to get the place money up. They finished in a real heap behind the winner, i dont think the race is any good and 6/5 just isnt bigger enough to tempt me. Theres nothing in the others form to get excited about either but Osborne and Dalgleish are having plenty of winners and Scott Dixon isnt going too either to be fair. No bet |
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I liked the look of Derivatives last run, held a bit wide on first 2 bends and then didn't seem to shirk the issue, seemed to
battle well enough, time seemed ok. Aqua Ardens could be better switched to this surface. I'll watch this one. Not sure which way to go on the Cool Hand Luke race, but he didn't do much wrong last time, battled well under a bit of pressue from a long way out, was a positive. I'd side with you on this one, but do give a squeak to Polar Auroras. Good luck with them both |
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yeah there wasnt anything wrong with Derivatives last run and if that was the only form in the book you would be confident of winning today but i just think she keeps find ways to get beaten.
1/5 and im just not completely sure she is straightforward. starting to remind me a bit of another one of Gosdens, Cotton Trader. |
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Being able to make the running is a positive for the fav, but you on the otherhand get a good price if you take it on, only one to beat
Non runner in Polar Auroras in other race |
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Bond style will do for me at 11/8. Many more question marks around other and was impressed with the attitude at southwell. Champ on board is a plus and should have come on for that run
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Essexvale looks overpriced in that race, has shown signs of ability but too many poor runs
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Macy Definitely looks like better value to me. Travelled with plenty of purpose on debut and was never really getting going until the final furlong. Considering was so green and quite fresh i think she did well to finish as close as she did. This could be a tricky tactical affair but what i do know is that very few Jockeys ride Wolverhampton as well as Joe Fanning.
At 7/4 i'm with Macy but can see why Cool hand luke is the favourite and may just be a little more streetwise in what could turn into a chess match. But at the prices its a no brainer. Should be Evs each of two on my tissue. |
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Good luck with Bond Style Gman500
Looks like he might make the running if he breaks quick enough by that last run |
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was he getting going tho gman or were the others just stopping?
difficult to know exactly i guess maybe it was bit of both. I do agree that fanning is massive plus for the horse in such a small field. good luck with your bets today anyway |
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i do think bond style will be suited by this less demanding track, he was travelling better than the winner turning into the straight at southwell but there where some very average horses that were close behind, arguably should have beaten him, and for that reason i'm out.
agree theres nothing much in the race how Bengaline and jericho had acheived higher offical ratings that bond style is beyond me. again i will wish you luck |
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Tar Pal. Not going nuts today. 1pt win singles and 1pt double. Leaving Southwell alone.
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Bond Style has fibresand form and is clearly a contender but will he repeat those runs on polytrack?
I prefer Jericho who, for me, has decent form (in the context of this race) and ran very well on this track over 8.5 furs after missing the break - the drop in trip may be a negative but at the prices I prefer him - his stable is in cracking form ..... |
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well done Crep.. Got the price right but not the result
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^i
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Wd Geton with Aqua - I couldn't face a bet at Swell so missed out
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that favourite is just a wrong'un.
great result |
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well done on the double thehappysnapper, hope you cleaned up
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can't complain there... Joe gave it a great ride and it was out streetwised in the end. I think it didn't know what to do when in front.
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cheers, great results.
Cool Hand Luke had to work much harder than i hoped, may have been a bit lucky with that one in the end. Dont know it the 2nd was just still green in the closing stages or not. Think i'm up to a level stakes profit of about 13pts which i am pretty happy with, and thats before you count all my places  |
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A very good thread.
Well done and thanks. |
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No maidens tomorrow, just backed Pale Orchid 4:30 Kempton, one of your maiden winners, probably not value but that was certainly impressive last time out, got low to the ground, bit of a Dancing Brave style about her. This one definitely has the right attitude, smart time, has to stay another furlong.
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Beware Pale Orchid, a filly against the males at this time of year . Lay for me at the current 2.76
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the most interesting race of the of day by a mile.
Pale Orchid looks plenty short enough to me too at prices. Discoverer is much more interesting at nearly 4/1 but havent looked at the race in much depth yet. |
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well done today geton, always finding the winners of these maidens ,and for those that don,t really know you to well yet then wait till the flat starts properly in march because geton finds some real good value winners as he did last season, top stuff snapper
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actually i think Fairway To Heaven is by far the best bet in the race. Its significant that he was so well backed first time out in what was a decent maiden. Wigham doesnt have too many good ones but they are quite good at knowing how they stack up. He Moved really well and whilst he was lucky to keep the race in the end he was still the best horse in the race and only needed one crack of the whip to score nicely. There is almost certainly more to come from Fairway To Heaven as well who looked green in the closing stages after travelling strongly. Kalokagathia and Ashdown Lad are winners waiting to happen, red thrump went very close in a lesser race next time and Mister Mackenzie and Remix also give the form a very solid look.
Pale Orchid may well improve up to 7f but hes also up 7 pounds for beating Dark Castle who had previously only won a weak maiden so the form might not be as strong as it looks at first glance. Ashdown Lad got to within 1/2 a length of Discoverer at lingfield on debut but was nearly 2 lengths behind Fairway To Heaven next time and that was after the benefit of a run. Discoverer is probably better than he showed last time at lingfield, it was a bit of a messy race and he had to make his own running. He might be better judged on his debut run when deadheating with Sujet Ballagio at lingfield, the form looks really strong with bronze angel winning a handicap next time off 83 and Sujet scoring in maiden company, however 7f might just strech Sujet who wasnt doing much in the closing stages (won back over 6f) and Bronze angel came from a very unpromising position, not given a great ride, to score. Nothing else was making up any ground from off the speed so think there is every chance Bronze Angel is a fair bit better then the rest of the field. A good race for the all weather and im looking forward to seeing what Fairway To Heaven can do. |
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cheers jon.
hope i can keep rolling right into the flat season. just need to make sure i dont do my balls at cheltenham inbetween |
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im sure ryanwe can give you a hand with cheltenham geton
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i will certainly keep an eye on the other thread for cheltenham bets mate.
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Would be handy for Pale Orchid to be on a lower mark and get a bit of weight but she's not giving a load of weight either, so not too much of a negative.
If you take the Discoverer race, didn't look too good to me, bit slow and didn't find much either and with the 3rd horse coming back out in a mile race, didn't really frank the form and showed he didn't really have a bundle of speed yet he wasn't far behind Discoverer. The proximity of the 2nd Ashdown Lad who then ran behind Fairway To Heaven performing perhaps to a similar level, to me deters from Fairway To Heavens performance, although like you said ran green to a certain extent and a muddling race. Saying all that I'm ready to get my ass kicked |
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cracking race
you were spot on about the Lingfield race in your summary |
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it was a good race and the front 2 will surely be winning more races.
Discoverer wasnt the worst result for me but still lost on the race. Fairway to Heaven regressed from a promising debut over course and distance and the market was spot on. These yards arent really very good for racing or form students. The 5f maiden at wolverhampton isnt really worth much time discussing. Al Freej comes out of one the best all weather maidens last time and really should win but dropping her back to 5f at the sharpest track looks a dreadful decision to me. not been quickest away on her first two starts and took awhile to pick in the straight at lingfield. Anyway she should get away with it today against a pretty weak field but im certainly not going to pay to find out at 1/5. |