Result day 183.

Lady Sylvia  Pl (10's adv)  + 3/4 pts
Lady Percy   Un Pl          - 2pts
Double       lost           - 1pt

Profit / Loss               -2 1/4pts

Total                      198 1/2pts

Bet day 196. 1pt E.W. Alkimos 14-1 ladbrokes, 1pt E.W. Atlantic Sport 11-1 B365 4-1+ offer + 1/2 pt E.W. double 11's & 12's B365(BOG) write up to follow.....

Just spotted your post now K.I.W. , as you will have gathered I fancy Godolphin's representative, GL with Kirthill, made the shortlist but may find one or two better treated today.

Bet day 199. 1pt E.W. Gulf Coast 17.30 Beverly 8-1 B365 BOG….

Not a big fan off betting in amateur events as a rule, however I can’t get away from this horse's chances.

Drops to a career low mark and shaped very well Lto when 3rd at Catterick off a 1lb higher mark, he now drops to 10F for the first time in a while, and with these type of contests ran (usually)at a decent gallop this should suit. Majority of his good efforts have came on tracks with stiff finishes (Carlisle, Beverly and Pontefract). Usually comes on considerably for a run (even off the back of long breaks), and looks sure to appreciate the better ground. He's won his 2nd start in July for his last 2 completed seasons (including this race in 2008), with the majority of his best form coming in the said month. I personally had him about a 6-1 shot at best, 8's a shade too big Imo, especially with the stable there or thereabouts with their runners at present. GL

Bet day 203.   5pts win Roxelana 5-2 generally(BOG) 20.45 Lingfield 1pt E.W. Lightning Cloud & 1/2pt E.W. Instance 15.55 Ascot 10’s and 33’s respectively B365 both BOG….

…..Having looked at plenty of today’s runners and riders, I think it’s probably worth keeping the majority of my powder dry for this evening’s card at Leafy, and in particular the last race where a resurgent Jeremy Noseda has an outstanding chance with his filly Roxelana in the lucky last, and I personally have her as maximum bet material.

In all honesty I was originally drawn to the Sir Michael Stoute filly, and on paper she should make up into a very nice type, and made a very favourable impression when winning her maiden Lto. Having gone through the probable’s looking to see if there were any dangers to this filly’s chance I came across a brick wall in the form of Roxelana, with the 10F trip making her much more appealing than Sir Michael’s inmate. Having watched all of her races to date this morning I simply can’t get off her chances, and in all honesty is unlucky not to have form figures of 1-1-1. Her race course debut was over 7F on course in February, and if memory serves the dogs had been barking all morning regarding her chance the dogs, with a fair view joining in the gamble. That day she fluffed her lines at the start costing her 3 or so lengths, then proceeded to race very green with her ears almost flat to her head for the majority of the contest at the rear, with many a punter surely thinking they had once again been put away. The race fit and experienced colt Burnhope had best part of 10 lengths on her passing the furlong pole, but the penny did eventually drop and under a hand ride from Hayley Turner cut back the winning distance to a length come the line.

Her next start was over a mile on track a fortnight later, where she clearly showed she had learned plenty from debut, travelling a lot kinder for Jimmy Fortune and showing a very willing attitude when once again overcoming greenness in the closing stages to win by a head, looking to need every yard of the mile in doing so. She was given a few months off before coming back for a handicap at Goodwood, again over a mile. Once again she looked tapped for toe the majority of the race towards the rear, but come the business she thundered home up the centre of the course, once again making up plenty of ground from the 2 pole in doing so. Today she steps up to 10F which is well and truly warranted on her racing style, and backed up with some stamina from the dam’s side. As all ready stated Jeremy Noseda’s yard look to have had a few maidens running well lately and could be turning the corner of what to my mind has been a fairly low key season for him. Jimmy Fortune has had plenty of chances in the last 12 months or so, and has used them to good effect, with Lingfield also being a happy hunting ground for him in the same time period.


Now onto the Ascot cavalry charge, hardly original but I’ve found it hard to look past the chance of Kevin Ryan’s lightly raced gelding, and looks to have been given a nice stall to jump from. On trends he seems to tick a lot of the boxes, and now steps back up to his optimum trip, with course and ground looking to suit. I will also be having a very small saver on Jeremy Noseda’s filly Instance, whom will surely leave her seasonal debut well behind, and could surprise at decent odds in a wide open renewal if she sees things out for a yard looking to be on the comeback.

therobster27 , good luck

great to see someone finding a max bet, fingers crossed!

Today’s most competitive handicap is Ascot’s 17.05, and plenty as you would expect look to hold fairly strong claims. In recent years this race has went to a 4 or 5 yrold, and with the two at the head of affairs in the betting being 5yrolds that trend may be set to continue. I’m hoping this year the trends will be bucked, and thought Rasaman could be the one to do just that, but I’m prepared to have a wee saver on Fratellino from the 5yrold bunch at his huge odds, and don’t forget 2 out of the last 5 winners have went off 50’s & 66-1 respectively.

   I will start with Rasaman, and although he is now in the twilight of his career has shown recently is no back number, and looks to be peaking if his last 3 contests are anything to go by. I will go back 3 starts to when he was attempting to give 7lbs to an in form Bosuns Breeze, Graham Lee had to switch him around in behind runners at Musselburgh before getting some daylight up the rail, but trying to concede that weight to a horse that subsequently has shown he had best part of 18lb in hand proved to be futile. He then went to Doncaster for a 6f contest a fortnight later mid June, narrowly getting up to deny Mass Rally, Head Space and Bertiewhittle who have all added a degree of solidness to that form with their next couple of runs.

Rasaman’s next run was on Monday gone, where Graham Lee thought it would be ok to run 10 or so yards  before removing the hood, costing this horse 10 plus lengths in doing so, chance well and truly gone. For most of the race Graham Lee almost treated it like an exercise gallop, but under a hand ride in the closing stages made up plenty of ground late on, admittedly through beaten horses, but finished with plenty of running left in him without having to hard a race. A decent clip over 5F probably favours him more than 6, and his current mark of 80 is still relatively workable given he shapes like he is very much in form.

Now onto Fratellino, who may well be suited to an artificial surface but has got some reasonable form in the book on turf, most of it came in his 2yrold campaign but at least proves he has been equally effective on the green stuff.  If in the mood he looks well capable off this sort of mark, and the last time he contested a handicap off this mark yielded a very good 2nd in a big field over Newmarket’s 6 last year. He will however need to show more than he has done in his last couple of turf starts, albeit he was wading out of his depth Lto at Haydock. He has been given a little break since, and at least has some form on the course when runner up in the Windsor Castle as a 2yrold, and in a race that has thrown up some rags  he could go well at a massive price.


PS. Could do with a bit of Luck alright.

well done with the e/w on the saver rob 40/1 nice one

Missed the first bit off above post...

Cheers VB, what's made it worse is I was keen on Taajub a couple of times last year

Beverley is far removed from the aura the Olympic game’s will provide, however I’m still hoping Robert Winston will bag a couple gold’s for Brittain on tomorrow nights card, that Brittain being of the Melvyn variety.

All of Robert Winston’s intended rides at Ayr were not declared, so will have to wait until the evening card at Beverley gets underway for his first race of the day, and the two of his 4 rides I’m interested in are for as already stated  Mel Brittain.

I will start with Brockfield who is set to concede weight all round in his particular race, but is at least stepping back down in class to shoulder the burden of top weight, after a couple of contrasting races in slightly better class. Although he has won a 10F handicap in soft ground I'm of the opinion he most definitely appreciates a sounder surface, and his last 5 races over tomorrows distance with the prefix good in the going he has form figures of 5-2-2-2-1, and he also seems to hand the undulations of Beverley with lifetime form figures of 3-2-2-2, all over 10F on a decent surface in bigger than average field handicaps. He has a habit of replacing a bad run with a good one, which has been evident throughout his career but there has been 3 recent examples all off the back of soft ground contests going onto a better surface, and after failing to fire around Chester on soft going he now heads back to Beverley on decent good ground. His draw in 13 could have been kinder, but saying that his last 2 visits to the track he was also poorly drawn, but finished runner up on both occasions.

Now onto Seldom who runs an hour later in the 20.00 who also has the unlucky for some 13 box to start from, and just like his stable companion seems to be able to replace a very poor run with an extremely good one. He has also shown an affinity for Beverley, especially in the month of July, and after winning this very race last year also won a race on the corresponding card the previous season. His mark of 65 is right at the outside edge of his ability, but has run some reasonable races over a mile on marks there or thereabouts. He has only one success to his name over tomorrow’s trip, but although his win ratio at a mile seems poor Imo he does get it, and has ran some good races on fairly stiff tracks over this trip.

In the lat 12 months Mel Brittain’s Beverley record isn’t to shabby, with 8 wins from 30 runners a nigh on 27% strike rate along with a handsome £17.88 profit to level stakes. Robert Winston in the same period is as equally as good, with a 22% strike rate from his 40 rides, and he is well in front with his profit at £29.88, and when they combine at Beverley they usually attract plenty of support, taking home the bacon more often than not.

Bet day 210. 1pt E.W. Tyfos 16.10 Newcastle & 1pt E.W. Fantasy Gladiator 17.00 Ascot 10-1 & 12-1 with B365 both BOG... + 1/2 pt E.W. Double...

Having browsed the majority of the racing for today last night and early morning I’ve decided to go with an old favourite of mine in the 16.10 at Newcastle, and although the handicapper looks to have him in his grasp there are other factors that makes Tyfos just about the E.W. value bet of the contest for me at his double figured price. I am also keen to be onside of Fantasy Gladiator in the lucky last at Ascot, who in stark contrast looks to be loosening away from the handicapper’s grip, and also has his chance in a wide open affair.

I will start with Tyfos, and having had this race down to a short list of him, Comanche Raider and Noodles Blue Boy  whom all finished within a length of each other last month over C/D,  the all important price has just about swung me in favour of Tyfos, and all things being equal it could be a sound decision. The sun shone all day at Newcastle yesterday, and that was off the back of a fairly consistently dry period, and all ready this morning the sun is fairly hot with day looking set to be a cracker, with top of the ground performers looking to have a definite edge. Tyfos undoubtedly comes into that category, with plenty of decent form in the book on going described as G/Firm. He also seems to crank up his form from July through to early August, having a really consistent profile within this time period for the last few seasons with form figures of 1-3-4-3-2-3-2-1-1-1-2, with marks ranging from 75 to 86 respectively.
   It’s fair to say the yard don’t venture up to Newcastle that often, perhaps because they have went away empty handed on each of their 19 attempts, but Brian Baugh sends his sole runner of the day back up to this venue to try and break that sequence, and given today’s under foot conditions has a better than average chance of doing so.

  As already stated Fantasy Gladiator’s mark has become very attractive, and although he is arguably a better poly track performer, Lto on course showed he is very much coming to hand. That day he was held up just off the pace over the mile, and for the majority of the contest looked to travel extremely strongly, racing with much more enthusiasm than a few of his previous runs, racing to a share of the lead passing the furlong pole until weakening out of proceedings passing the distance. He now drops further in class and also comes back to 7F, and it’s fair to say James Doyle is a very eye catching booking for the stable.

Having backed these at bigger prices last night, but unfortunately not having enough time to compile my write up I’m happy to take the prices advised at the top for the purpose of this thread, and at those prices the horses in question still make plenty of appeal.

got 8s robster

Fantastic insight as usual rob, I think we can safely predict a NR in this race....

Result days 210 & 215.

Fantasy Gladiator     Un Pl -2pts
Tyfos                 Un Pl -2pts
Double                Lost  -1pt


Harlestone Wood       Un Pl -4pts

Profit / Loss               -9pts

Total                    174 pts

Today’s 2 biggest fields have had my attention for a fairly long time yesterday evening, and a little more time this morning, those  races being the Stewards Cup at 15.55 and the consolation race to open the card. The horses that have interested me the most within these contests are Kevin Ryan’s Louis The Pious, and Robin Bastiman’s gallant servant Borderlescott.

I will start with Louis The Pious, and I’m certain connections will be bitterly disappointed not to be involved in the big one, just missing out on getting in looking very much  like he could have been teed up nicely for it. I do get the feeling he is a much better horse on a decent surface having 5 starts so far this season, 4 of those on ground described as soft or worse, with the one piece of stand out form coming on the sole time he encountered G/Firm ground at Chester. After starting his campaign off over a mile, he was been dropped to 7F for his previous 4 outings, and now drops back further in trip to 6F for the first time this season. His lifetime form figures for this distance read 5-4-1-1-1-1-2-3, with the final race in that sequence being close up behind a couple of very good sprinters who quickly made up into group class performers. His record on Good ground compared to a soft surface is also very contrasting , soft ground or worse reads 5-6-8-16-5, with ground with good or better in the prefix reading 4-1-4-1-1-1-2-3-2. The yard could do with a winner, and had a couple run well yesterday, with Graham Lee taking the ride who has been given some nice opportunities from the yard, seldom disappointing.

Now onto the “Big un”, and despite Borderlescott looking past his sell by date I just can’t help thinking there’s one last Hurrah in him. It maybe a little of my heart ruling my head, however that’s most definitely not the case, and looking back through his record on course you’ll see why.

Sep 05 Class 2 handicap 6F Gd  2nd /13   bt nk
Aug 06Class 2 handicap 6F Gd 1st/27   
Aug 07Class 2 handicap 6F Gf  2nd/27  bt sh/hd
Aug 08Class 2 handicap 6F Gf 3rd/27 bt 3/4length
Jul   09  Group 3             5F Gf 4th /17 bt 4 ½ lengths
Jul 10  Group 2               5F Gd 1st/15

His record in this race is 1-2-3, and although he has ran some good races on a soft surface he really does act well on decent fast ground. He now dips back into the handicapping sphere for his first start in an awfully long time, and his lifetime  record in August is also very good with figures of 1-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-6, with all this taken into consideration,  he may well not be the back number his odds suggest.

Personally can’t have him today B.T.T., really fancied him a few starts back at York over 5F (which I consider his best trip), and he really disappointed. Looks held on the book by plenty who re-oppose from their running at York last Saturday, and on Jockey bookings looks the 3rd string. GL

Post Robster, unlucky

Great shout none the less BTT, Fahey 1st 4th & 5th. Thought my luck had changed up until the last 50yds or so, but great ride given by G.Lee on the runner up, who for me has been the story of the season in jockey terms.

Long time no hear GGR, hope your finding some.... Has been a very trying summer for me thus far in my quest for winners, but I'm hoping my turn is not far away.

Unlucky robster. Great EW shout.