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for the new year (2)
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therobster27,
Fabulous write-up, as always! Good Luck, always! |
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Extra bet(s)day 259. 1pt E.W. Penitent 16.15 Doncaster 12-1 B365 1/4odds 1-2-3 places + 1/2 pt E.W. double with with Ancient Cross 12's & 14's repectively B365, Both BOG..... write up to follow...
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Having scoured the rest of the cards this morning for some value I have found myself coming back to Doncaster’s 16.15, and in particular the chances of Penitent. Although there is some 14-1 still on offer with other firms, I think B365’s concession of a ¼ of the odds at 12-1 for 3 places(at present) more than fair value, and thought this horse to have a considerably better chance than those odds would suggest.
Having previously been owned by Cheverly Park and trained by Willie Haggas, this horse was bought by Middleham Park Racing, and sent him to be trained by arguably the best up and coming handler in the country. David O’Meara wasted no time at all in finding the key to this fellow, quickly finding the winning thread on course for his seasonal debut in April, readily winning a modest listed event. He then went onto confirm form with Questioning at the end of that month over Haydock’s mile in heavy ground, looking to have improved considerably from his debut run, making a mockery of a fairly well assembled G2 contest. He was then off course for 111 days before being seen again, presumably with some sort of an injury set back. David O’Meara sent him over to Leopardstown for a G3 event, but never really threatened to get involved when trying to give lumps of weight away to some half decent 3yrolds, looking as though the run would do him good when sticking on for 5th. In Doncaster he returns to a much more familiar and successful venue, as apart from winning the listed event on seasonal debut he has also won a Lincoln, and also unlucky not to win his first ever race on course. He has won in September for his last 3 campaigns (3 from 4), and although well suited to softer conditions it’s worth noting he has won 50% of his races on good ground (3/6), and versatile enough to win on both a poly surface as well as fibre sand. Connections interestingly drop him back to 7F, and the manner in which he travels through his races at a mile I don’t think stepping back will inconvenience him. I’m certain this afternoon he will leave that Leopardstown run well behind, and at his price looks more than a fair E.W. poke to hit the frame. |
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Pentient run in grp 2 was sandown not haydock in tough going, many didnt handle it and he was race fit, this is alot tougher m8, but like u said he loves it here but id be surprised if he has enough early speed for this but best of luck
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Pentient run in grp 2 was sandown not haydock in tough going, many didnt handle it and he was race fit, this is alot tougher m8, but like u said he loves it here but id be surprised if he has enough early speed for this but best of luck
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Yes BTT, Sandown the venue, I've been through that much form this morning I could well have put Cartmel. Only time will tell if he has the toe for this distance, I'm convinced he should be ok. GL
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Bet for day 261. 1pt E.W. Courageous 15.20 Brighton 14-1 B365, write up to follow....
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Strange how this "well bred" horse used to "stay on" over 7f as a 2yr old to play a part in races.
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Courageous is very tricky to win with, but at his current odds of 14-1 it’s worth risking a few quid to see if Mathew Lawson can get the rub of the green during tomorrows race, and it just may be possible he could have the race ran to suit.
I know they have had contrasting fortunes since he and Commandingpresence(11-2 tomorrow) where 3rd & 4th respectively behind Prodigality last month, however Courageous did make up good ground when closing nicely up the centre that day, and with the lads claim tomorrow is 9lb better of for finishing a neck in front of this horse. This time last year this horse was approximately a 10lb better animal, and it doesn’t seem that long ago he was acquitting himself fairly well in those big field class 2 events. Those days are possibly firmly behind him, despite not being beaten too far in a decent contest at Ascot in July. He seems to go on various ground, but does look to handle a decent fast surface as well as anything, and no doubt tomorrow it will be firm and fast over Brighton’s 6F. He also seems to run well in September, with 1 of only his 2 lifetime wins coming in this month, along with some other decent placed form. His last few run’s have not been too bad in the grand scheme of things, and despite finishing 8th on Saturday did shape like he was still in form. That day he fractionally missed the break, and then seemed to get bumped in behind the main body of runners. The lad on board Michael Murphy basically had no room to run at for the entire contest, and despite trying to manufacture himself some racing room several times from his cramped rail position, the door kept closing. Imo that race was a much more competitive affair than tomorrow’s assignment, and he was made the 6-1 market leader in that wide open affair. Tomorrow he has the rail pitch to jump from, and hopefully with a smarter exit and the slightly smaller field Matty Lawson may be able to hold his ground, especially if Peters Island decides to thin the field out from the offset. Although there are a few at the head of the market with some nice form to their names, I wouldn’t be tripping over to take 11-4 for Clear Spring, now tackling this grade for the first time under it’s most recent penalty. All things being equal if Courageous is on a going day he should be in the mix in some capacity come the line. |
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Think he must be a bit thinker mange, as you say the potential was never realised to the max, should have much more than just 2 career wins to his name.
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From what Ive said Rob..........Prob make a 2ml Hurdler stayed that as a 2yr old...............& it wakes em up.......................G.L. M8
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Result for days 258 & 259.
Times Up Won 5-1 (4's BOG adv) + 10pts Duke Of Firenze Un PL - 2pts Double Lost - 1pt Ancient Cross "5th" (14-1 adv) + 2 1/2pts Penitent Un Pl - 2pts Double Lost - 1pt Profit / Loss + 6 1/2 pts Total 166 3/4pts |
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Bet day 266. 1pt E.W. Pivot Man 33-1 generally (use BOG)…
Today’s big field handicap at Newbury sees plenty involved whom have crossed swords on numerous occasions already this season, with as you would expect some varying results, and the majority of the time the form not exactly tallying up with their respective marks. That however is the nature of the handicap beast, and I’m without a doubt today’s race will not exactly be ran too the form book either. Having needed your crystal ball to find winners through the week at Yarmouth (unless you were an avid Freddy Tylicki follower), that in mind I’m prepared to have a go a at a one you would need the same leap of faith as backing Freddy’s winners. The horse in question is Amanda Perrett’s Pivot Man, whom would be struggling to pop onto anyone’s radar in his current form, but there are a few positives( if you can call them that ) to make a small case towards his chance today. For a start I’m prepared to put a line through his last 2 handicap runs, having been drawn 17 of 18 in the Johns Smiths Cup he was ridden out of the gates like a 6F sprinter to get to the front, and once there got into an almighty duel for the lead with Fair Trade, needless to say they finished last and 2nd last beaten an awfully long way due to those early exertions. His latest run was at the back end of July at Goodwood, and it was game over as the gates opened. After missing the start by a length he quickly found himself in behind the majority of the field, looking to hate the application of the first time blinkers (disposed with today). Regardless of excuses for his last 2 run’s he is just as likely to run poorly today, but saying that is more than capable of putting in a surprise effort. This appeared to be the story of last season, where you would also have needed strong binoculars to pick him out at the finish, having finished nigh on tailed off in 4 of his 5 starts (beaten an average of 34 lengths in those 4 events) shedding only 7lbs off his mark in doing so. It was ironically at the back end of September when he blew all of his previous form out of the water of his revised mark of 83, winning a 10F contest at Ffos Las by a staggering 8L, then followed that run up with another solid display under his hefty 12lb penalty when decent 2nd behind Kirt Hill last October over today’s C/D on G/Firm ground (and meets Kirt Hill on 18lbs better terms for ¾ length). Having started the season off 95 now finds himself running off 84, only 1lb higher than his facile win at the back end of last September. His only other win ironically was the back end of September in his previous season, when beating none other than Carlton House by 4 lengths on his racing debut. Amada Perrett looked like she had her horses in decent nick earlier in the month, but has since took a little dip in her own current form, but is at least bringing Pivot Man into this race a fresh horse after giving him a break. Although his profile suggests he’s not going to find a massive amount, he is only having his 5th run of the campaign and only his 14th career start today, and could just potentially catch a few out that have had hard season’s thus far, and is more than capable given his overall record to produce a good enough account to hit the frame. |
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15.10 Newbury ^^^^^
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Extra bet day 266. 1pt E.W. The Checka 15.30 Ayr 16-1 generally (BOG 5 places).
Having stared at this horse all morning I’ve talked myself into a tentative punt, I know it’s a big ask lumping 9-10, but considering technically bottom weight being 8-10( 14lbs) I believe he has a sporting chance of hitting the frame given his group form, that claim enhanced with those firms offering the concession of 5th. This horse has shown a very consistent level of form so far this season, many of those races being at the top level. To date he has taken in a listed contest, one G3, one G2 and 3 G1’s, and is able to boast form for those contests of 1-2-12th -2-3-2. He can also compete at a decent level with plenty of dig in the ground, and with the prefix soft or worse in the going has consistently ran well, with lifetime form figures of 1-1-2-2-4-2-3-2 , with plenty of those contests being listed and above. The Checka looks to have taken his form to a much higher echelon since coming back to a conventional sprint trip, and the key factor for me has been the consistency he has shown for this drop in distance. George Baker wouldn’t have that many rides for the Eve Johnson Houghton(or at Ayr for that matter), but at least the yard are going into the back end of the season in better shape than they started it, and I would be disappointed if he could not fill a top 5 position in this ground from Imo a decent place to jump from, and given the fact he stays 7F should see things out better than most at the business end. |
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Results day 261 & 266.
Courageous Un Pl -2pts Pivot Man Un Pl -2pts The Cheka Un Pl -2pts Profit / Loss -6pts Total 160 3/4pts |
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Bet day 267. 1pt E.W. First Rock 17.20 Hamilton 16-1 PP BOG….
The lucky last at Hamilton looks a very open affair, with more than a few of the contenders with questions to answer. Mark Johnston has a couple of interesting contenders in the form of the unexposed pair of Red Orator and Tartan Jura, with both of those in the questions to answer bracket I will be opposing them today. Plenty others in the field look thoroughly exposed, with a fair few having been on the go since the spring, having plenty of racing throughout the season so far. The couple that I thought up until yesterday had the least questions to answer were the Alan Swinbank pair of Lady Kashan and First Rock, no doubt the former is well in today given her decent 2nd yesterday in similar conditions, but she was given an extremely hard race in the process, and for that reason I’d be against her today. The one I’ve decided to have a go at today is First Rock, who may look a little high in the weights, but the issue of a few pound here or there can often be factored out given today’s underfoot conditions. Ironically although he has not won on a soft surface he did look to handle it when holding every chance passing the 2 pole over 16F at Newcastle last October, only to flatten out in the closing stages, with Newcastle being a fairly stiff 2miles to see out in those conditions. He also seems to handle the fibre sand at Southwell very well, with plenty of winning and placed form at that venue on his C.V. ., which can more often than not give an indication horses will handle cut on turf. He also looks a better horse when fresh, with form figures of 2-2-2 on his seasonal bow’s, and other good form with smaller breaks in his racing. On breeding he will probably appreciate the drop in distance, with a lot of his sire’s progeny also looking to do well on a heavy surface up to middle distance. The exchanges seem desperate to lay him this morning, and he’s been available at double his tissue price for some small money. Ironically there has been money around for the other Swinbank runner, but at his price of 16-1 with the safety net of B.O.G. I’d rather be with First Rock, with Robert Winston taking the ride for the first time. |
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Bet Day 268. 1pt E.W. Taurus Twins 16.00 Leicester 20-1 B365 BOG (4-1+ feature race)….
Ajjaadd is sure to be a popular choice among punters, winning this last year and looking to be coming to hand for a repeat bid. However I do like the look of the runner up that day 12 months ago Taurus Twins, and although does have to find ground with Ajjaadd on his run at Ascot Lto, he also seems to run some of his best races at this point in the year, and looks to have been given a break by his trainer with a possible autumn campaign on his agenda. He also looks capable of handling most ground, but 4 out of his 6 turf wins have came on G/Firm ground, which as you would imagine this faster ground suits his catch me if you can tactic’s. Robert Winston takes back over today, and from only 11 rides has won on him 4times and been 2nd on two other occasions. He also seems to have had a reasonable time of it for the yard over the years with a 22% win strike rate and a £27 profit to £1 level stakes. The Price yard also seem to be holding their own going into the back end of the season, with 6 second’s and 3 winners from his 20 runners since the start of the month. Taurus Twin’s will need to put in a career best this afternoon, but in a wide open affair looks capable of out running his odds of 20-1. |
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G.L. M8
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Will be hoping for some of that mate after my terrible summer, GL with yours
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Same as that Rob...................no serious bets...so not loosing a lot......after a big study permed 5 e.w..some of em got well backed........1 winner the rest nowhere.........this seems "par for the course" of late
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Bet day 270. 2pt win Enthusiastic + ½ pt E.W. Twice Bitten 20.20 Kempton 7-1 & 25-1 generally use BOG firms…
……Tonight’s 20.20 at Kempton looks to revolve around the principles in the betting market, with Refractor, Kuda Huraa and Mountain Range all looking to appreciate the poly surface at Kempton. However having been through various form lines and watched numerous pieces of footage regarding the race, I’m prepared to over look the obvious / proven form in the book, and go with a one that could be seriously well handicapped, along with a small saver on one that look’s massively overpriced given his appreciation for the course also. I will start with Enthusiastic, who off his mark of 78 could be well in, and as a 4yrold is only having his 4th lifetime start. He has progressed well with each run, and on his return to action in August over 12F at headquarters did exceptionally well to put a nigh on year absence behind him to finish a decent 2nd to Castilo Del Diablo. That day he wondered around in the closing stages, possibly lack of experience and race fitness conspiring against his winning chance on this occasion, and horses with reasonable reputations in behind well beaten. He was turned out a few weeks later in an ordinary maiden at Wolverhampton over today’s trip, and confirmed his superiority over a couple in behind him at Newmarket. That day he travelled strongly for the entire journey, looking to have came on a bundle for his seasonal bow, only having to be nudged out in the closing stages to win a very comfortable 1 ¾ lengths, looking like he’d plenty more to offer. If he makes anywhere near the improvement I’m expecting, there’s no question Imo he will be the one to beat, looking a much better horse than his current mark would suggest. Now onto my saver, who at his current odds of 25-1 looks to be well over priced given he has not been given the most suitable of rides in his last couple of starts on the surface, and could be involved with a more positive ride tonight. He looks a horse that does not have the electric turn of foot as some of his market rival posses, but one thing he does do well is run on steadily. He also looks to be best suited to a poly surface, with all of his worth while form coming at Wolverhampton and Kempton. I’m certain with the likes of Kuda Huraa and the Bells Of Peover in the line up to name but a couple who like to force the issue, he will get the decent gallop he needs to show his good work at the business end, and may just be the forgotten horse in the race with others looking to hold smaller number denominations in their current form figures. |
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morning therobster'
just a little snippet of trivia about Enthusiastic and 'new' trainer.... As regards pleasing results, coming a close second to Patriotic's victory was the recent win of Enthusiastic, the first winner trained in this phase of his intermittent training career of Mick Murphy. This whole M. Murphy thing is very confusing. When Mick was riding in jumps races in the '70s (for Middleham trainers such as Neville Crump, Pat Buckley and Steve Nesbitt) I think that he wasn't the only M. Murphy riding. More recently, when his son Michael (pictured in Ed Walker's string recently) was riding on the Flat (most notably on Presvis) he rode as M. J. Murphy so that he wouldn't be confused with the M. Murphy who was riding over jumps. Just when we got that straight - blow me, another M. Murphy has started riding on the Flat, and his middle initial is J. also. So he's Michael J. M. Murphy. And it's hardly less confusing for Mick senior now that he's training again: there's already a Mike Murphy training, so Mick (as he is invariably known) has gone down as Michael, which is even more confusing than it needs to be. Anyway, Mick was either a salaried or a private trainer briefly for someone near Bury St Edmunds in the late '80s, but since then he's worked behind the scenes, spending some years as James Eustace's head lad, several years in Sheikh Mohammed's employ and several years running a livery yard. And now he's a trainer in Hamilton Road - and got off the mark for this reincarnation when the Hon. Earle Macke-owned Enthusiastic won at Wolverhampton recently. Enthusiastic was formerly with Luca, but when the Macke horses moved, Mick became his new trainer - and that recommendation by Earle Macke's racing manager Fiona Shaw (whose father Dan Burke and Mick have been friends for years) was clearly a very good one because Enthusiastic is in the hands of one of the most experienced and conscientious horsemen I know |
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If that doesn't wake you up nothing will, So who's Mick ha ha ... nice touch Delta.
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the paragraph above is credited to John Berry (trainer)
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therobster27,
Sadly, Enthusiastic, carries a penalty this evening! One of Hugh Taylor's selections! |
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* Michael J. M. Murphy rides a winner
gl later therobster27 with Michael Murphy ... |
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* Michael J. M. Murphy rides another
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Enthusiastic
wd Rob |
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well done the robster right to be enthusiastic about that ,great ride by the murph
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Oi Oi
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WD Rob
 You sifted thru all the Smurfs |
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WD therobster''
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wd
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Just about to watch it online and the bloody computer puts in a moody....Just watched the replay now, looks a one to be on Nto.
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Bet for day 272. 2pt win Ruacana 14.00 Haydock 6-1 Whill BOG , write up to follow.....
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Tomorrow’s opener at Haydock is sure to cast Ruacana in a much better light than his previous 2 appearances, and at his price of 6-1 could be value in a trappy little heat.
After running his last 2 contests on G/firm / Good he returns to a soft surface, and looks altogether more at home with plenty of cut. After a trio of maidens over 9F in the spring at Wolverhampton was sent handicapping and upped 3F in trip. With the venue of Pontefract possibly being one of the most demanding 12F in the country, especially in the soft. He did it well that day, giving an indication he could in time make up into a nice prospect in the staying ranks. He then followed up on another testing 12F on good ground at Chepstow, in the process showing some nice battling qualities when wearing down the inform filly Scatterdice well inside the final furlong. He then went to Mussleburgh and ran a shade disappointing, just plugging on and looking a shadow of himself in his previous 2 outings. He was upped in trip next time out to tomorrow’s 14F, and despite (Imo) the course not suiting his galloping style he proceeded to run a screamer when finishing 2nd to Monshak around the tight contours of Chester, with the very testing conditions probably being a good leveller. His penultimate run in the shergar cup event is best forgotten, ridden for a turn of foot a little off the pace was possibly not the best way to ride him, but did consent to run on nicely on ground that looked fast enough for him. Lto again was a race that would not have suited, with Mikael Barzelona grasping the nettle off a sedate stop start pace at a crucial point in the race, ultimately winning (nicking) him that muddling contest. Tomorrow the Haydock ground is described as heavy, combine this factor with the galloping nature of the course could well be this horses optimum conditions. The favourite looks short enough to me on what he has achieved thus far, and although he looks bred for the gig his appreciation for very heavy ground on turf have to be taken on trust, but his cramped odds at least gives the look of value to the rest of the field, with Ruacana catching my eye more than the rest. |
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Extra bet day 272. 1 pt E.W. Fair Trade 16.35 Newmarket 66-1 B365 ¼ odds 1-2-3-4-5 places.
I’m certain this his horse may have been put away with the Cambridgeshire in mind, however due to being cut a massive amount of slack from the assessor, has to settle for the Silver version having just missed out on tomorrow’s show piece. Having fancied him once this season without success, I’ve been waiting for him to pop up later on in the season, and racing at Newmarket clearly suits this horse. Another thing he seems to do is run well fresh, having finished runner up on the course making his racing debut at the back end of the 2009 season, he won first time up the following year. He has obviously plenty to prove at present, but is used to conceding weight to animals with much more ability than this afternoon’s offering. Today he races 16lb lower than his last official rating, and has not got many miles on the clock for a 5yrold, with G.Baker having a reasonably good record when riding for this outfit. I had this horse about a 20-1 shot to win it in my mind, so I will happily take the odds on offer of 66-1 with B365, giving 16 ½ -1 for 5 places. |
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Resault(s) day 267,268 & 270
First Rock N/R 0pts Taurus Twins Un Pl - 2pts Twice Bitten Un Pl - 1pt Enthusiastic Won 11-4(7's adv) + 14 pts Profit / Loss + 11 pts Total 171 3/4 pts |
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Bet day 273. 1pt E.W. Oojooba 15.50 Haydock. 1pt E.W. Marshgate Lane 17.25 Newmarket + 1pt E.W. Double, both with P.P. 9-2 & 5-1 repectively BOG.....
.....With some really excellent handicaps on offer throughout the country I have been extremely busy giving plenty of those events the once over, and although I have my eye on a few at bigger price’s for later I will start with my safer bets (if there is such a thing). The 2 I think that could run massive races are Oojooba in the 15 .50 at Haydock, and over at Newmarket the Godolphin colt Marshgate Lane in the concluding race to their card. I will start with Oojooba, and connections have taken their time with this precious filly, who should at least be destined for better things than achieved thus far. She does look a filly that can handle soft ground, but being by Monsun you would have assumed that fact, along with the anticipation of competing in middle distance races. She only saw the racecourse late last year, making a very favourable impression on debut aon the track over a mile, with none other than Great Heavens a well beaten 5th within that maiden. After that winning start things have obviously not panned out as thought, but does look a filly that is maybe starting to come into her own, especially if Lto can be taken literally. That day in a listed contest at Salisbury over 10F she looked to be struggling as the pace cranked up at the top of the straight, but stuck to her task well to keep on and split Opera Gal & Ruhm, with the former following up with a close 2nd in a class 1 event in Germany along with a demolition job of a poor listed event at Ayr, with the latter Ruhm also winning cosily (muddling race) Nto. That form is standout compared to anything else this line up can provide, and with the Roger Varian yard hitting a little form this month she may have plenty more to offer this afternoon. Now onto Marshgate Lane who runs in the lucky last at Newmarket, who also looks like he could be ready to step forward on the decent level he has already shown so far this season. He is another that has been given plenty of time to flourish by his current connection’s, and has made stealthy progress within a short space of time, giving the distinct impression he may well be progressing towards a group contest in the near future. Lto at Goodwood his 3rd place finishing position does not tell the whole story, with the distinct probability that lack of experience cost him the race that day. After running around leaving the stalls Mikael Barzalona settled him nicely towards the rear of the field, and at the top of the straight (still with plenty to do) slowly worked his way to the outside to make his run. That run did come, but in doing so had to come fairly wide, and looked a little isolated from the action that was unfolding up the rails, but none the less ran on very willingly all the way to the line, looking a little unlucky not to have won (Imo). Today he heads back to Newmarket a course he seems to act on, and I’m certain the step up in trip will also suit. Further improvement looks a formality, and can see this horse really appreciating the rising ground at the business end, and the ground will surely be on the easier side of good than it was at Goodwood(which will also help his casue). Marshgate Lane could well be a cut above this line up, with 5-1 (11-2 VCbet)as a bet to nothing looking fair all things considered. |