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for the new year (2)
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Yes shambles on before Hugh put him up, and just as well by the looks at the way it's been slashed. Thing is the majority of my selections are put up over night/ very early morning for that very reason. If Tom Segal of Hugh Taylor ( to name just a couple of tipsters with a huge following) put a horse up you also fancy, and your not on before they do, you can kiss goodbye to a fair chunk of profit (providing it wins of course). By the end of your financial year it could count for a considerable amount, and on occasion’s because you've missed the price you could even potentially omit winners, again costing you on your overall profit margin.
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Emuska non runner
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anyone no the reason why?? ground etc..
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therobster27
Emmuska (GB) Declared at: 05/06/2012 10:51 Reason: Self Cert (Coughing) |
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Ahh Em
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No, but lots pulled out at LeIcester so I assume it's down to the rain. Frustrating.
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Ah, must be the damp weather causing the cough.
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Ahh Hem
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Or Hugh caused the price to tumble before connections were on
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Bet for day 158. 1pt E.W. Tajneed 20.10 Ripon 12-1 B365.
Having gone through this race earlier this afternoon, I had every intention of having a decent 4/5pt win on Pearl Ice, as Imo could be destined for the top echelons in sprinting, and in all honesty is probably head and shoulders above these. However I was still expecting at least around about the 7-2 mark, and having watched 11-4 disappear with B365 fairly rapidly I will not be getting involved at 7-4 and will solely depend on Tajneed, here is my write up in it's entirety..... .....Tomorrow nights 20.10 at Ripon, and some of the usual Ripon suspects line up to do battle over the 6, on ground (described at the moment) as good to soft, with some sporadic good patches. There are a couple Imo within this that should go very close, in fact I’m very sweet on the chances of Pearl Ice to repay his current connections a little of his hefty purchase price, and have a feeling that Tajneed may be able to still play a minor role, despite the yards poor form. I will start with Pearl Ice, whom looks every inch a sprinter, and although he has went up a few pounds for his recent 2nd behind Arganil at Thirsk, in truth he’s 4lb better off as he really should have won, and won easy. I will roll back slightly to his seasonal debut, where he had plenty who re-appose tomorrow night in front of him, however that was his first run for 203 days, and only his second in 569, and the weight of money that came for him overnight and on the day, in truth never looked likely to yield at any stage. That day he raced up the worst part of the course for the entire 6F, and Graham Gibbons rode him fairly aggressively without cover, which also looked to conspire against his chance. Lto at Thirsk was a different story, Graham Gibbons took a pull after leaving the stalls and got him nicely covered up in behind a wall of horses, hard on the steel but looking very settled and content. However riding a horse in behind the pace has its draw backs like trying to navigate a route through to the front, and still having everything in front of him passing the 2 pole would possibly not have been in the script. However Graham Gibbons had plenty of horse underneath him to manoeuvre around in behind, but the gaps he waited for were not for opening, and if he could have rode the race 99 more times where he went would have been the 100th route he would have chosen. This horse has been well punted for new connections on each occasion, and has a really nice high stall to jump from tomorrow night….. will the bookie chaps find out tomorrow if they’ve just been keeping it warm??? Imo if Pearl Ice gets the run of the race, and the gaps are forthcoming…Bookies will have a somewhat lighter satchel on their return journey. Now onto the horse I’ll be having a very small saver on just in case the gaps don’t appear for Pearl Ice, that’s a horse that needs no introduction to this track…Tajneed. Even though the Dandy Nicholls yard have struggled for winners and form in general, Tajneed has ran some respectable races for his young claimer, and despite some reasonably good performances is now 15lb’s below contesting last seasons Great St Wilfred, where he made some good late gains to finish 4th in the far side group(8th/19 overall). As stated he simply loves Ripon’s 6F, and although he has ran well over 6 outside this venue, to quote a phrase from Dandy Nicholls “He’s simply a 10lb better animal at this course”. Adrian Nicholls now takes back over from the young lass that’s been riding recently, and has also been allocated a nice stand side pitch to embark from, and he could be the precipitator the yard desperately need to spring into some decent form. |
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Just seems to be one of those days..... Tajneed 14's with Boyles, going to have an extra 1/2pt E.W. with those, 3pts staked in total, the saving grace with B365 it's the 4-1+ race if it were to win.
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Result day 157.
Highlife Dancer Un Pl -2pts Emmuska N/R 0pts Double Lost -1pt Profit / Loss -3pts Total 229 3/4pts |
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Bet for day 161. 2pts Win Lord Aeryn 15.45 Doncaster 5-1 B365 BOG, write up to follow.....
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Final bet for day 161. 2pts Win Mulaqen 16.00 Newmarket 7-1 SJames + 1pt E.W. Double with Lord Aeryn 5's & 6's with B365 BOG...
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There is plethora of decent quality racing to choose from tomorrow, and have opted for a couple of nicely shaped race’s from a betting perspective, those being the 15.45 at Donny, and Newmarket’s 16.00, where the two I like the look of respectively are Lord Aeryn & Mulaqen
I will start at Doncaster, where I do think the one horse lining up in the 15.45 that could potentially progress further this season is Richard Fahey’s charge, especially now reverting back to a sprint trip. Lto was his seasonal debut over a mile at Haydock, and despite running a little fresh in the early part of the race, came through to hit the front on the run to the furlong pole, but just did not quite see the mile out against some race fit rival’s, a couple of which showing some nice previous form. The winner of that contest Oriental Scot only found one too good on his revised mark Nto, with the runner up Imperial Djay winning nicely at Chester. After being apprentice ridden twice from his last 3 starts, Lord Aeryn is now re-united with Paul Hanagan, who has been on him for 3 of his 4 wins, and has placed on him a few other occasions. Lord Aeryn also looks a horse to benefit markedly for a run, and in his last 3 campaigns on his second start has form figures of 1-1-2. He does not seem inconvenienced by any ground, and as already stated reverts back to a distance that he is 3 from 5, and is 1-1 over C/D. They are sure to go a decent clip, which will most definitely suit, and his overall profile suggest to me that further progress is imminent. Now onto the chance of Mulaqen, and the manner in which this horse won at York on seasonal debut was always going to make him a horse of interest Nto. That day he was always sitting handy in the first 5, and the pace to my eye looked fairly generous, and on the run to the 2 pole Paul Hanagan asked him about his business and the response was that of a good horse, opening up quickly at the head of affairs off that good gallop, being eased a half a furlong out with plenty in hand. Tomorrow he goes up a couple of rungs in class, but looks very capable of being equal to the task, despite the handicapper not wanting any more egg on his chin(13lb rise). With Mr Hanagan on duty at Doncaster Tadhg O’shea takes over tomorrow, whom looks to have played his part in nurturing this horse through his career to date, and could well be rewarded tomorrow for his supporting role. Mulaqen is also entered in the Pitman Derby at Newcastle towards the end of the month, however the improvement he could potentially make before then could in all fairness may rule him out of that contest, and connections may have their sights set on pattern / group company if things go to plan tomorrow. He looks certain to get a decent pace to once again sit behind , and does look a horse that could be better served by a softer surface, with the galloping expanses of Newmarket also sure to be right up his street. |
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Result day 158.
Tajneed Un Pl -3pts Profit / Loss -3pts Total 226 3/4pts Although I was not involved at his cramped odds of 5-2, Pearl Ice won in the manner I thought he would, logistically different tactics to what I assumed, but won impressively none the less. Tajneed also ran a good race all things considered, and might just have a little say in The Great St Wilfred, which I assume will be one of his targets. |
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Bet day 162. 1 pt E.W. Trendelenburg 16.10 Perth 16-1 generally BOG....
.....Flat racing in Britain seems to be a famine or a feast, with this weekend being no exception to that rule, after cracking afternoon and evening racing on the flat on Saturday, Sunday not just in the weather sense appears to be a wash out. However Perth appears to have saved the day with a nice enough looking card of N.H., which has attracted runners from far and wide for their feature event, the Perth Gold Cup. From a pure betting perspective, after an initial run down of the runners and riders at face value, Imo the E.W. thieves such as myself appear to be getting more than fair value. Without sounding flippant, Imo it looks like your getting 4 places for a race that only 5-6 have a serious chance of winning, which could be extended to 8-9 for the place purposes, and with the probability of a coin flip for a place it makes perfect sense to look for something in the double figured price bracket to play on. You will have deduced from my opening line I’ve decided that Gordon Elliot’s “ahem,” so called second string is definitely worth a risk to small stakes, who for me looks just about the value of the race at his current odds of 16-1. If truth be known I’d have liked the going to have come up a little softer underfoot, but with some heavy forecast showers in the region the ground described as good could potentially ride on the softer side of that, which Imo would at least enhance his chance. This horse last year contest some fairly nice novice chases, with a modicum of success within those contests, and in a stark contradiction to my theory he need’s softer ground, he has a reasonable record on good/yielding ground, wining three & placing twice from 7 attempts on that particular ground, one of them a hurdle over 27F on course. This horse appears to be at his best being waited with off a decent pace, and gradually crept into the race, and with Auroras Encore in the line up they certainly won’t be hanging about. Paul Carberry was seen to good effect on a few occasions on this lad over hurdles with that type of ride, and Timmy Murphy looks tailor made for horses that require the kit glove treatment, as he doesn’t do an awful lot when hitting the front, and I couldn’t think of anyone better at that type of ride. Maybe Gordon Elliot thinks he’s up to winning off his current mark of 130, after getting him ready for a tilt at this race in a charity affair Lto, and was doing all his good work very late on, no doubt putting a fitness edge on him for today’s assignment. It is a little off putting that both his horses are drifting somewhat alarmingly on the machine, and it is a possibility it will be replicated with the firms, but I’m still happy to be involved with a BOG bookmaker at 16-1. |
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Results day 161 & 162.
Mulaqen Un Pl -2pts Lord Aeyrn Lost -2pts Double Lost -2pts Trendelburg Fell -2pts Profit / loss - 8pts Total 218 3/4 pts |
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Bet for day 167. 1pt E.W. Dubai Hills 14.45 York 12-1 B365 BOG....
……Not beaten far in a conditions race over C/D a few weeks ago on his seasonal debut, and that day he only found the C/D specialist Smarty Socks(100), and the very highly regarded Boomerang Bob(114) a little too good. They both had a couple of runs under their respective belts, and it was under the distance before they both mastered Dubai Hills, who did appear to get tired very late on. All of his rivals that day were superior to him on ratings, in fact a good few had a stone+ in hand. Dubai Hills now returns to the handicap sphere off the same mark, and taking that last run literally he surely must be well in, especially as his mark reduced late on last year after a very busy campaign, which had merged from his previous one. Royston French now takes over from Justin Newman for a stable that appear to be in relatively good order, and are at least among the winners in June, and Dubai Hills also looks to have bagged a nice stall to jump from before the dog leg comes up. The race also looks sure to be run to suit in the fact he will get a decent lead into the contest, the race is littered with pace setters, and for me looks entitled to be on the premises off his current mark. |
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Rob, Agree with you on Dubai Hills outstanding ew chance ( but don't let that put you off
 ) today ,very genuine Horse and ground should not hinder....white frost is also well in but the run last time was terrible from a good draw |
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WD rob. Place money not too shabby.
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Bet day 168 2pt E.W. Carragold 16.15 York & 1pt E.W. Toby Tyler 17.15 York 10-1 & 14-1 respectively both Paddy Power + 1/2pt E.W. double BOG...
…Having gone through a few races at York tomorrow I’ve concluded that proven ability to handle very soft ground is going to be on obvious positive, and sometimes it can pay to look beyond the present form book when a horse has consistently acted well in tomorrows forecast going of soft ground. The 2 I feel that may have a bit more going for them than most tomorrow in their respective chances are Mel Brittain’s Carragold, and Paul Midgley’s Toby Tyler… and here’s why. I will start with the previously mentioned Carragold, who although appears adaptable as far as ground goes, Imo she is a different proposition when tackling a soft surface, as you would expect being a daughter of Diktat. Her record on ground that is described as soft reads 1-1-2, admittedly gained off marks a lot inferior to her present one, but non the less all in handicap company. Most of her winning and decent performances have come on much stiffer tracks, and York probably not a track you would have in the testing category. However I think the pace is going to be very generous looking at the line up, and 9F around here in the conditions with an assured gallop could just about be perfect. Lto over Beverly’s 10F despite given a bit to do ran a very good 3rd in ground probably more livelier than ideal, and the 2 who finished in front that day have both came out and won fairly easily, with the 6th also winning with authority Nto. Robert Winston again continues his good association with this mare and when riding her on turf has form figures of 1-1-1-2-1-3, and in general has a decent record for the stable, particularly in soft ground handicaps. Tomorrow she has been given a very economical stall to jump from, and in the last 4 years this race has been won with horses drawn 5 or less, and most definitely looks the one that is going to give the unexposed Alfred Hutchinson most to think about. Now onto Toby Tyler, another who looks to be very much at home with plenty of dig in the ground, and does look like he is coming to hand judging on his latest run at Ripon. He is another that has some decent form with plenty of dig in the ground, and his lifetime form in softer or worse going reads 1-2-3-4-1-3, with plenty of other credible performances in the book on going the easier side of good. Lto when finishing 3rd over Ripon’s 6F on his preferred soft did not tell the whole story, with Micky Fenton switching the old boy around in behind horses for 2 furlongs of the last 3, finishing his race off very well. He is another who will appreciate a break neck pace to be anchored off, and there’s all probability he will have his requirements met. Judging on the way the race’s panned out today he also look’s like he has a decent pitch to jump from, and he has a very good record over 6F with a nigh on 33% strike rate at the distance. Paul Midgley continues to be in good form, and Toby Tyler has every possibility of sustaining the stables good run. |
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Points on the board Rob
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Extra bet(s) day 168. 1pt E.W. Night Trade 15.15 Bath 14-1 B365, BOG… + 1/2pt E.W. treble with above/below 2… 14’s, 14’s & 8’s with the same firm.
…. Having thought my betting was completed for today, I just can’t resist one last wager on a horse that’s been good to me over the last couple of seasons, that horse being Night Trade, and although Ron Harris is triply represented, for my money she looks his best chance. Having had her in mind as a 10-1 chance, I’m happy to take the 14’s on offer now despite only the 3 firms pricing up. Having backed her E.W. in January at fairly big odds, she came up trumps for the place part of the bet, and I’m prepared to back her again today on very similar pretences as to when punting her back then. Today she slips back to a mark of 75, and although she has competed well off marks slightly higher, she does appear to operate fairly consistently on this mark. Life time form in handicaps off and up to this mark read 1-3-4-4-2-1-2-7-1-1-3-1, and for all of her wins a claiming apprentice has assisted. It’s fair to say she had been on the go a long time last year before being given a well earned break mid February, and has bettered each run back since that break without being threatening, and as a result has dropped a few pound in the handicap. Lto over today’s C/D she ran a fair race when partnered by Luke Morris, and after being run off her feet early doors was still tail end Charlie passing the 2 pole, but stuck on well to finish a never nearer mid-division 6th, looking very much like she was approaching her "A" game. Darren Eagan takes back over on this mare today, and it’s fair to say he’s been the apprentice story of the season, and looks fairly strong in a finish for a jockey at this stage of his career. Night Trade does just about get 7F, so hopefully they will once again go a decent gallop for her stamina to kick in late on, which I’m sure with the lad’s claim should allow her to be in the mix at the business end. |
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Result day 167.
Dubai Hills Pl 10-1(12's adv) + 2pts Profit / Loss + 2pts Total 220 3/4pts PS, quick note re the first write up for today's runners, Carragold not a daughter but son of Diktat, probably confusing him with Caranbola, who I did consider in the last before scratching her very late in my calculations.  , It's not the first, and definitely not the last time I've made this error |
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Night Trade 10p R4 (B365) and now only 3 places, but 14/1 (no BOG) available with Coral.
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Lol, that^ was before Comptonspirit nr.
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Carragold has done well to get up for 4th there. Looked unlikely 1f and even 100yds from the line. Saves the day with 2pts on to place.
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Bet day 169. 1pt E.W. Favorite Girl 14.00 Doncaster 6-1 B365 (4-1+ feature race)BOG, 1pt E.W. Lockantanks 16.40 Doncaster 7-1 Skybet and 1/2 pt E.W. double with Betfred 6-1 & 13-2 respectively, write up to follow.....
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Sometimes when your looking for an angle into a race current form/wellbeing is usually top of the agenda, and that has been the case for me in coming up with today’s selections…. not from the actual horse per say, but form the handlers perspective.
Michael Appleby looks a trainer that is at the top of his game at present, and although I have been monitoring his runners and riders fairly closely over the last week or so since Stellar express went back to back, I’ve not been swayed towards a wager until looking at his very interesting runners today. His first of those goes in the opener at Doncaster, where he is represented by Favorite Girl, who is interestingly stepped markedly up to an extreme trip for the first time. She had 3 maiden runs late spring/summer for Sir Henry Cecil last year, and obviously did not come up to scratch for those connections, and found herself starting life off for Michael Appleby in handicaps at the start of this year off 62. She did not make an immediate impact for current connections, but as she was gradually upped in trip and switching to a slower surface (fibre sand) she looked a filly that would steadily progress with time and racing, and in her last few contests at Southwell gave the impression she could keep the momentum going in those particular race’s a lot further. She has since been given a nice break before coming back a week ago at Chester, and although was probably shuffled back a little further than ideal around Chester’s tight contours, she looked to have been produced to perfection by Luke Morris to take it up on the turn for home, and although nutted by Isdaal late on she was still galloping on resolutely. That run will have brought her on bundles, and being by Shirroco out of a Montjeu mare you can see why she appreciates cut in the ground over a reasonable trip, and looks set to progress further now being stepped up to a distance very much in keeping with that breeding. Now onto the stables other representative who runs a little later on the card at 16.40, and although he appears a better horse on the A.W., I would not discount him in this event, especially as he is another that looks like an easy surface is very much appreciated. Lockantanks also ran on the same Chester card as his stable companion, ironically also after being given a break after his winter campaign, and also brought back over a distance a little shorter of his optimum. As alluded to he is possibly slightly better on an A.W. surface, but when running on turf with the prefixsoft in the going or worse over today’s distance he has form figures of 2-4-2-4, by far his best form on turf by a proverbial mile. He did look to put bets part of 20lb on his mark Autumn through to early Winter last year before his form tailed off, having had an extremely busy year, and now contests the turf on a 15lb lower mark to that of his A.W. one, which was only 6lb different before he made his dramatic progress. After having a nice pipe opener in that recent claimer against the majority of which he could not beat at the weights, he will no doubt be a lot sharper for that run, and stepping back up in trip will also help, and looks set for a big run under a jockey desperate to break through in this sphere, and is making a good fist of things at present. |
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Result day 168.
Night Trade Un Pl -2pts Toby Tyler P.U. -2pts Carragold Pl 5-1(10's adv -r4) +2pts Double Lost -1pt Treble Lost -1pt Profit / Loss -4pts Total 216 3/4pts PS, as you point out PHS, at least Robert Winston rode out for the place, a nice surprise. |
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therobster27,
Superb write up, as always! Good Luck |
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Very well done!
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Bet for day 170. 1pt E.W. Botham 16.45 Carlisle 7-1 Paddy Power BOG, write up to follow....
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Having gone through a few races on Carlisle’s card I think Botham has a very good chance of making his 4th run of his current campaign a winning one, and hopefully continue Jim Goldie’s revival in form.
This old boy seems to need two or three runs to get cherry ripe, and after being ridden tactically wrong Lto on ground a lot faster than ideal he should now be approaching his optimum fitness level, and although he was not given a hard race that day by Nora Looby, it is at least working out well form wise. After having a couple of pipe openers in May last season on good ground, he won both his next 2 starts in June over a mile, both on his favoured easy surface. His next 6 starts after those wins were all on decent good ground with limited success, however his final 2 starts of the campaign were again on his favoured soft ground over 9F, and won both contests with a degree of ease. Tomorrow he gets his beloved soft ground, and connections have wasted no time slotting him back into 0-70 class with the recent help from the assessor. Although he has only won over a sprint trip on firm at this venue, Imo could well be suited by a good gallop over 9F at this track, especially in the month of June which seems to bring out the best in him. Jim Goldie has just started to get his horses back into a little form, and seems to be giving Graham Lee plenty of opportunities, who will no doubt at least give this horse some firmer handling than his previous run, and looks booked for a decent show. |
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wd rob,unlucky with the double
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Hi Robster, best of luck to your selection, as you know you are taking a few risks on recent form, and is suddenly going to come back to form cause of the ground and has ran better after a few starts in previous years. I would advise you to have a saver on Thackeray, by far the best form when winning at Newcastle, with the placed horses frankly the form on their next outing. The firm ground and wide
trip was reason for poor run last time, and will really enjoy the softer ground. Kelly Harrison gets on well with him and is the one to beat. |
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Robster well done, i always have a read.
Win or lose your reasoning is second to none. Skintos taught you well  |
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Result day 169.
Favorite Girl Pl 9-2(6's adv) + 1/4pt Lockantanks Pl 8-1(7's adv) + 1/2pt Double place part won(13-2+8-1) + 1 3/4pts Profit / Loss + 2 1/2pts Total 219 1/4pts |
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Bet for day 172. 1pt E.W. Fair Trade VCbet, alas no more BOG with them for me, but personally think 40-1 available with them wont be beat, write up to follow later….
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