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for the new year (2)
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Bet for day 138. 3pts E.W. El Viento 13.30 York 16-1 generally BOG... write up to follow...
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Tomorrow’s most competitive on York’s card is the opener, but I’m certain El Viento could prove to be a lot better than his current mark, especially now reverting to the minimum for the first time since his seasonal bow last year.
My approach to this race has been slightly different, as he is a note book horse of mine I have decided to work my race out around him, and came to the conclusion he has a very serious chance. As stated he went into my note book after his seasonal debut last month at Doncaster, where Imo was ridden with very tender handling under Lee Topliss. After being settled mid division in what looked a fair pace, El Viento looked to travel kindly through his race, with Lee Topliss looking in no particular hurry to ask him a serious question. At around the 2 pole you could be forgiven if you thought Mr Topliss was in a quandary as which passage to weave, another decision he seemed to be making at his leisure. Once he did make up his mind, he did in fact make eye catching progress under an “Ahem” hand ride, and the ease he travelled with that day would suggest he will cope with the drop in trip. The blinkers that where missing on his seasonal bow are refitted tomorrow, which will at least help the horse concentrate on the job in hand, and all his 3 wins have came with them on. Tony Hamilton takes over tomorrow and looks like he has a decent draw to jump from in 16, with plenty of today’s runners in the sprints drawn middle to high doing well, with the group race finishing a couple of widths off the stands rail, many drawn low. He at least is more likely to have some natural progression left in him as only a 4yrold, he’s my idea of the winner and having seen 20-1 disappear fairly rapidly with Paddy Power I’m more than happy taking 16’s on a horse I consider to be a single figure price. |
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Bet for day 139. 1pt E.W. Troopingthecolour 16.10 York 16-1 generally....
Having browsed a few race's on tomorrows York card, I did like the way the 16.10 shaped up as a betting medium, and in particular the 16-1 that’s available for Troopingthecolour. In the line up lies a few unexposed 4yrolds that could still could have a massive say in proceedings, but whilst they all sit within the top 7 in the betting their respective draws (15, 17 & 19) could be a massive blow to their chances, and although it’s not impossible to win from these draws I’d prefer in a 20 runner affair to be drawn a little closer to the rail. Troopingthecolour is at least in a single figured draw, and his prominent style will hopefully get over/closer before they run into the dog leg that comes up fairly quickly after gates open, saving valuable lengths in doing so. Along with draw the ability to act on the much quicker described going will be vital, and with plenty in the line up looking to be at their best with plenty of dig, a few more can be eliminated fairly easily. It’s quite possible that this horse will get 12F as equally effective as 10, and with the likelihood of a good pace tomorrow getting a little further than the 10F can Imo only be a positive. His life time record in various grades over tomorrow’s trip reads 2-2-2-2-1-1-1-5, and did finish last year off by contesting a couple of class 2 handicaps, one a descent 5th at Ascot over 10F on good, the other at York over12F finishing a respectable 4th of 20 G/soft. That form at least gets him in with a shout, and having finished an excellent 2nd within a few lengths of a 105 rated horse on seasonal debut(levels), that should have put him spot on for tomorrow's more realistic assignment. The Gollings yard remain in fantastic heart, and have eye catchingly booked the services of Sylvestre De Sousa to get the best out of him tomorrow. |
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Result day 133, 137 & 138.
The Druids Nephew Un Pl -2pts Conquisto Un Pl -2pts Pravda Street Un Pl -2pts Double Lost -1pt Baby Strange Pl 12’s(adv20’s) +4pts Granston Un Pl -2pts Double Lost -1pt The Fun Crusher Lost -1pt El Viento Un Pl -6pts Profit / Loss -13pts Total 209 3/4pts |
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Extra bet day 139 1pt E.W. Dolly Royal 18.05 Newcastle.
Just taking a little chance with this mare to come back into some form, watched her run last time out which was only her second back after a long lay off. That day she was held up off the pace, and looked to be travelling nicely in the soft ground, and as the principles in a poor race pulled away she at least made some nice headway under a sympathetic ride a never nearer 7th under Paul Mulrennan, with a few since adding a little credibility to the form. The yard usually concentrate their runners to running at Newcastle, with Robert Johnson training not far from the course at Newburn, withy many of those runners being massive prices. Today Dolly Royal is also a big price, and been sent off at big prices all her career, but has at least won at 20-1 and placed 25’s and 80’s during her 12 lifetime starts. Today the ground at Newcastle is bound to ride softer than described, it has been raining through the night and is generally overcast with more forecast rain to come. Dolly Royal will at least relish this surface. The assessor has eased her mark further to 53, and Robert Johnson has booked L McNiff to alleviate a further 5lbs from her ever diminishing mark, and he may well be able to squeeze her into a place on his only booked ride of the evening. |
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^^^ 33-1 B365 BOG
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its 4 months since you achieved over 200 points in profit,
whats happened, been having some bad luck? goodluck today |
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I see fairoak lad went in yesterday, rob
gl |
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roadrunner, it would be nice to be consistent regarding how the winners come and how the profit is accrued, however with me it seems to be big peaks and troughs, but usually over a said period I come out on top. Still in good shape this year (+109 3/4pts), slightly better at this stage than last year (+91pts). Within reason I approach each race more or less the same, so hopefully the winners will come with my share of luck, and it's not for the want of trying. GL
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I wouldn't of thought you need to explain yourself to anyone on here robster.
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Kind of you to say IDWM, but don't think there was any malice intended by roadrunner, which was a fairly rhetorical question if truth be known.
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Well done again today rob, keep up the good work!
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Bet day 140. 1pt E.W. Dance Company 17.20 Newbury 8-1 Ladbrokes BOG... write up to follow...
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Having been scowering plenty of today’s racing last night and early morning, I did think the 8-1 on offer for Dance Company to be more than fair. Having time on my side this morning, I was going to wait for several more firms to price up, but as I’ve been monitoring the situation I feel she is going to be popular, with the said price already gone with a couple of firms It was time to step in.
I almost had a little bit more on this filly, but sometimes 3yrold only handicaps at this time of the season can often turn the form book on it’s head, where improvement can often be significantly exaggerated for certain individuals, or with others non at all. Having gone through this particular race and watch some footage of plenty of the probables, I simply could not get away from the chances of this filly, and could well be ready to go through the gears this season, with connections maybe having aspirations of some black type races in due course. However if she is going to be up to that calibre she will need to figure prominently in this contest, and judging on her few races to date off 77 today she could be very reasonably treated. She did take in a couple of maidens at Newbury last season, and on the first occasion on debut ran a very promising race behind a couple whom both had prior race course experience, who also looked extremely promising prospects themselves. However she subsequently failed build on that excellent debut, after returning to the same venue a month later she was restless in the stalls before fluffing the start, and after travelling into the race on the far side saw her run peter out, still showing signs of greenness but no doubt a little disappointing despite the first few home looking to be more than above average animals. She made her seasonal bow at Lingfield (A.W.) at the start of the month, and looked to have wintered well before showing she had learned a lot from her previous campaign. That day she always travelled supremely well in behind the pace, and when Jim Crowley asked her to get after the pace setter, she did not disappoint lengthening well to show a nice turn of foot going away, showing a very willing attitude. The horse she beat home that day has gone on to run another good race behind a Godolphin improver, giving a little boost to that performance. The stalls are drawn in the middle, but in her draw of 18 she’s in a very good position, as they more often than not will come middle to stands side, and should at least get the run of the race. Although the yard have had some run poorly this week, at least they have plenty running well and winning in May, and I’m sure there is plenty more to com from their filly today. |
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hi rob
love reading your posts, very well put together plus interesting to see the way you come to choose the bets but can I ask you why if you think a horse is well handicapped do you not follow them, I take on board when you choose a horse conditions may be in his favor that day but a lot of horses you have put up on this thread have one two or three races later, not a dig because this is one of the best threads on here, gl today |
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*have won two or three races later. doh
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The answer to your question is simple Valuebetting, through the week I'm only able to preview races that are priced up over night, and although some of my selections do go on to win soon after they're often not priced up over night, and I'd never ever back at S.P. Getting the right price and value is paramount pre-race regardless of what the result turns out to be, without the right price your overall profit will undoubtedly suffer over the long term.
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Extra bet day 140. 1pt E.W. Bowdlers Magic 15.55 Newmarket 20-1 generally + 1/2pt E.W. Double with Dance Company 20's & 5's Ladbrokes BOG... write up to follow...
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The only other runner that I’m interested in today is Mark Johnston’s Bowdlers Magic, who now reverts back to type after having only an average hurdling campaign, and at his odds of 20-1 it’s too tempting not to have a small interest.
He comes into this event not looking badly treated off 85, and has a very similar profile to his stable mate who took this event last season, after also having a moderate impact at hurdling. What you see is what you get with him, but on his day he’s a very tough nut to crack, with 14F on decent ground looking exactly what he needs. You would imagine hailing from this outfit his fitness should not be an issue, having previously run well after a break on his last 2 campaigns. Joe Fanning is riding Hurricane Higgins, and Mirco Demuro steps in for the ride, and looking at some footage of his recent rides in Britain he has really impressed me. He looks to already have struck up a good rapport with the stable, and in May on turf is 3 from 3 for the yard, with his ride on Fennel Bay yesterday most definitely worthy of a second look, and he looks well up to the challenge of extricating the best from his mount today. |
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Result day 139.
Dolly Royal Un Pl -2pts Troopingthecolour Pl 7-1(16's adv) +3pts Profit / Loss +1pt Total 210 3/4pts |
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ok rob cheers
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Bet day 141. 1pt E.W. Old Wigmore 25-1 Whill BOG….
One of the races I went through last night was the 15.20 at Stratford, and with nothing catching my eye within the priced up action at Ripon I’m going to go have a small wager on Rebecca Curtis’s Old Wigmore in the previously mentioned race, with the 25-1 on offer approximately double what I would have expected. Having finished last of 4 runners in a fairly hot little novice contest in January Old Wigmore was given a break, and made his reappearance from his 105 day absence at Ffos Las in the middle of last month. That day he was sent off a very short 6-4 favourite, and although he jumped and travelled solidly for a couple of miles he looked to be in trouble way before they turned into the straight, a disappointment for many I’m sure. Connections now bring him back a half mile in distance, and the likelihood of a decent gallop should also suit his prominent style of racing, with underfoot conditions also looking his optimum. They’ve also decided to put the cheek pieces on for the first time, which may well help keep his mind on the job in hand, and judging on his chase debut he may also be keeping a little back to himself, throwing that particular race away when downing tools slightly after jumping the last, causing a gubbage convention in the process. Aidan Coleman does not get that many opportunities for the yard, but has from a small sample has a 28% strike rate, and Rebecca Curtis happy enough to retain his services for Old Wigmore this afternoon. The yard could not be in better order, having had 14 runners in May only 5 have failed to place, with 5 of those runners being winners, and with this horse only having had 12 lifetime starts to date( 3 P2P’s), he at least could have more improvement to come than most on only his 5th chase under rules. |
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Result day 140.
Bowdlers Magic Un Pl -2pts Dance Company Un Pl -2pts Double Lost -1pt Profit / Loss -5pts Total 205 3/4pts |
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Bet day 143. 1pt E.W. Sudden Wish 17.30 Brighton 12-1 Betfred BOG…
Today’s conclusion to the Brighton card is a very modest 3yrold handicap, and no doubt there may be more than a few within of showing a good deal of improvement for the switch to handicaps. However despite her draw it may well be worth sticking with a somewhat more exposed runner, that’s the Alan Bailey trained Sudden Wish, who at least can boast a winning mentality within this line up. The distance of 7F could prove to be her optimum, her dam although only modest looked to be suited by this trip, and her Sire Jeremy was also at his best over this intermediate distance. Sudden Wish does at least look like she’s making steady improvement, and after taking in 4 A.W. contests of 7F/8F from the start of the year has been very consistent, winning the first of those races and a little unlucky not to have won another, showing a very good attitude in all of those events. She also has enough ability over this distance to travel kindly, and does posses a very smart turn of foot, showing this when winning in January, and after being in a somewhat hopeless position turning in against the vastly improving Emman Bee a couple of starts back (8F), flashed home and as already stated can consider herself unlucky not to have won. Her mark of 55 looks at present to be a workable one, with the previous 2 winners of this contest winning off 57, both also having previous winning experience under their belts. It’s also fair to say she look’s to be improving with racing, with the possibility of more to come switching back to turf also a realistic assumption. Daryl Holland takes over this afternoon and although he’s not coming in for the rides he once was, Imo is one of the best judges of pace over 6 & 7F contests around, and over the years has kept his cool to land some massive gambles in some big races, as well as lower level contests such as this one. He also seems to do well for the yard, having a 20% win strike rate and is still a few quid in front for level stakes over the years, netting the yard some nice prize money in the process. Connections have preferred to come back to 7on turf as apposed to her other engagement over mile at Kempton tonight, and although the yard’s horses are running fair they are lacking the winners, and it will be interesting to see how their previous runners fair prior to Sudden Wish in the last. |
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Result day 141 & 143.
Old Wigmore Un Pl -2pts Sudden Wish Un Pl -2pts Profit / Loss -4pts Total 201 3/4pts. |
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Bet day 144. 2pts win Passato + 1/2pt E.W. Crimson Monarch 17.45 Chepstow 3-1 & 33-1 generally BOG….
The Lucky last at Chepstow, and the most intriguing runner in the line up is the elder statesman Passato, and since stepping into the hurdling/chasing scene a good few year’s ago has made improvement of around about 40lb’s, equate that to the flat Imo he should be 5’s on chance to take this meagre affair. However equating hurdle to flat improvement is far from an exact science, and plenty that have reverted back to type from hurdling/chasing have picked up the old thread and disappointed. Saying that the more I’ve delved into the dynamics of form within this contest, the more I simply can’t get away from the standout chance of Passato. The ground is going to be crucial to his chance, and the one thing this horse looks to need is decent ground, having won all of his contests along with most of his other good runs on a sound surface. Today at Chepstow the going is described as good/soft - good in places, however I’d be amazed with the forecast sunny weather if that ground were not to tighten up, and by race time I’d imagine the prefix soft could well have been adjusted from the going. He also looks an animal that saves his best for May, having form figures of 1-2-1-1-1-4 within this month, with those contest coming up to 19F all on his beloved decent ground. He does like to be up with the pace, and I’m convinced he will have the necessary toe to sit handy over 12F on the level, especially over one of the more demanding venues that Chepstow is. The only slight negative is Jo Davis’s record on the flat over the years, but at least her handful of runners since Cheltenham have yielded some nice form, and she looks to have Passato very well placed for his return to the flat. I will be having a very small saver on Crimson Monarch, who looks to have been blighted by injury during his career, and as an 8yrold is only having his 15th lifetime start. It’s really tricky to know how much ability he has retained, as when brought back to action a few weeks ago was given a very sympathetic ride over an inadequate 10F on the A.W. at Lingfield. That day he was running 7lb wrong at the weights, and was ridden by an inexperienced apprentice, presumably with the instructions to take his time and don’t give the horse a hard race, and if those were the wishes of the trainer Noel Garbutt did exactly asked of him. The assessor in the meantime has dropped him 2lbs, which theoretically makes him a 9lb better horse than last time out, and today has at least been given a much more suitable test of stamina in Chepstow’s 12F. Russell Kenemore now takes over from the apprentice, and with that recent run under his belt from another long lay off he should at least give a better account of himself in this lesser grade, and bar the likely favourite Passato the remainder of the places looks anyone’s for the taking, and may be capable of squeezing in a very rewarding place odds. |
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Good luck Robster, you could do with a winner, don't want to see you drop below 200 mark.
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Phew, just held on, thought the other one was going to do it for you, hope the tides turned now Robster!
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Can only hope I've stopped the rot stewarts, I also thought Crimson Monarch was coming with a winning run... must have traded fairly short I/R.
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Bet for day 145. 2pts E.W. Mohanad 16.55 Goodwood 8-1 B365 BOG, write up to follow.....
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Having perused tomorrows Goodwood card first I’ve decided to get in quick, as Imo this horse looks a little on the big side at 8-1, but at least have the BOG concession just in case I’m wrong.
Over the last few seasons this horse has mixed it under both codes, with his reasonable share of success without looking a world beater. Imo during his last few campaigns he has been a fairly consistent individual, with his last 14 runs on the flat stretching back 20 months or so yielding form figures of 2-2-2-2-3-2-1-2-3-1-2-2-5, and over tomorrow’s trip on the level in handicaps can boast form figures of 2-2-1-2-1-2. Although he has yet to get his head in front at Goodwood he’s had 3 decent 2nds, and although they’ve been on various grounds he does seem to appreciate tomorrow F/cast Good/firm. He run’s tomorrow off 78, and all things considered may not be to badly treated, with his last 2 runs on the level off 77 & 79 yielding a 2nd over Epsom’s 12F, and a very decent 5th over Newmarket’s 18F, a distance that just taxed his stamina reserves slightly. He did have a pipe opener over hurdles at Kempton last month, and after being up in the van for the majority of the contest was just found wanting turning in, Marc Goldstien bringing him home under a hand ride thereafter, looking like he would benefit for that run. Harry Bentley get’s the call for tomorrow, and from 5 rides on him has form of 1-2-3-1-2, and I’m certain his 3lb claim will come in very handy. The yard could not be in better heart at present, with 3 winners and 4 places form their last 9 runners, with Mohanad looking set for a big run tomorrow. |
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Result day 144.
Passato Won 11-4 (3's adv) +6pts Crimson Monarch Un Pl -1pt Profit / Loss +5pts Total 206 3/4pts |
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nice one yesterday rob
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Bet for day 146. 2pts E.W. Kingsdine 15.10 Goodwood 16-1 B365 (4-1+offer) BOG.. write up to follow....
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Tomorrow’s 15.10 at Goodwood, and having had the time to do some preliminary workings this afternoon, I do think the 16-1 currently on offer with B365 more than compensates for his poor draw, and could well be poised to step further up the handicap ladder this season.
It’s fair to say that he has improved with racing, and did have a very productive 2010, probably putting best part of 20lbs onto his mark when winning a few low level handicaps, and running some other nice races. Last season was relatively a stark contrast to the proceeding one, only seeing the race course half as many times and looking like his previous seasons exertions were catching up with him. Saying that he was capable of a good couple of seconds in tomorrow’s class of contest, but finished the season off prematurely looking a spent force, a shadow of the horse in the previous one. He had been off track best part of 10 months before connections brought him back over Ascots 6F in the soft a fortnight ago, and after running very well against fitter horses(race working out well) was spared anywhere near a hard race, looking very much like he would benefit from that run. Tomorrow he steps back up to 7F, a trip that appears to be his best, form in handicaps at this trip reads 1-2-1-2-2, and he will absolutely love tomorrow’s quicker conditions. He definitely posses the tactical speed for Tom McLaughlin to work with, and if he cant get near the front should at least be berthed to challenge on the outside, with the inside route at Goodwood quite often a perilous one. |
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superb write up, on cursory look at race, kingscroft has a chance,
proved to be good money spinner last season. goodluck |
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Result day 145.
Mohanad Pl 4-1(8's adv) + 1pt Profit / Loss + 1pt Total 207 3/4pts |
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Bet for day 151. 1pt E.W. Diman Waters 15.10 Ayr 20-1 Ladbrokes. write up to follow....
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Tomorrow’s 15.10 at Ayr, and having gone through the runners and riders I can’t get away from a small interest on Eric Alston’s gelding Diman Waters, ridden by Kelly Harrison. I’ve came to the conclusion that the 20-1 on offer may be a little value, not because his chance is particularly a stand out one, but more via a process of elimination for some shorter priced runners has drawn me to him.
I started with the 2 at the head of the market Rothsay Chancer & Bosun’s Breeze, with the former having no worth while form on ground as quick as tomorrow’s f/cast, with most of his best runs on ground on the easy side, and his mark of 79 a little too high for my liking. Bosun Breeze’s chance looks a lot more clear cut, or does it?. The only time he has won off a mark higher than tomorrow’s 74 was as a 3yrold (75), and throughout his career he has always backed a winning / promising effort up with an abysmal performance, consistency not his forte. Having gone through most of the field putting lines through plenty, with question marks next to a few for further scrutiny, I did feel that Diman Waters could be very interesting running back at 5F off is much depleted mark of 70. Although he has never won above this mark he has at least won off 68, and his career runs in handicaps over 5F with marks ranging from 66 to 82 have yielded form figures of 6-2-1-2-2-2-2-3-6-7, and isolate that to tomorrows quicker ground form reads 1-2-2-3. This time last year was his final start over 5F, and ever since has been running Imo outside his comfort zone over 7F, and as a consequence his mark has tumbled. His penultimate run over that distance behind Le Toreador when 5th would give him at least the form to be involved , and is now 22lb better off for 2 ¾ lengths with that particular rival. I’m certain this horse still posses the necessary toe for the 5 still, and for me is just about the value starting from his single figured stall. |
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The Robster as you eliminated so many of the runners can you tell me what you thin of the Easterby runners in this handicap?
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