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for the new year (2)
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^^^^ 16.25 Ludlow.
Result day 119. Enter Paradise Un Pl -2pts Montaff Un Pl -2pts Act Of Kalanisi Pl 16's +3pts Double & Treble Lost -1 1/2pts Profi / Loss -2 1/2pts Total 229 1/4pts |
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Good luck Rob
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Cheer's Pumphol, did notice you like him also, and judging by the way he's contracting in the betting, so do plenty others.
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Well done Rob and good luck today.
Is Pumphol Hugh Taylor?! |
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Bet day 126. 1pt E.W. Extraterrestrial 16.30 Thirsk 14-1 Betfred/Tote BOG write up to follow.....
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Today’s feature race at Thirsk, The Hunt Cup, has attracted the participation of a Godolphin runner, and without a doubt has the potential to be a group horse in a handicap. Having tried to pick potential holes in his armoury I’ve failed miserably, what’s not to like about him…..Improving 4yrold, by Pivotal in softening conditions, trainer has a 35% strike rate on course, optimally placed for his mark, decent claimer up, runs well fresh… where do I stop. He will however like a fair few others be a soldier to fortune, where space around the tighter contours of Thirsk is going to be far more of a premium than the great expanses that Newmarket has provide for his previous 2 impressive wins, and in all honesty at around 7-4/9-4 in an 18 runner event is worth taking on.
I have decided to take him on with the Richard Fahey trained Extraterrestrial, who without a doubt looks to be at ease over Thirsk’s mile, and at his double figured price of 14-1 could be very fair E.W. value, considering I had him around a 13-2 shot to win it without the fav, and with the fav in he’s about a 7-2 shot for potentially the 3 other places. He has however a fair shout at winning it, having course form off 2-1-1 all of those run’s coming in the spring, one of those wins being in this event in2008. Although that seems an age away, which of course it was, he has on the whole maintained a high level of form as an older horse, after winning that event off 86 he still remains a 90+ horse with some excellent win’s / runs in reasonable handicaps over the seasons in the interim. His previous 4 seasons on his second start back reveal form figures of 2-2-5-1, that 5th being in a highly contested Lincoln, and does seem to hold his form fairly well, especially in spring. The trainer is no stranger to winning this event, having won it twice in the last 4 years, again has no problem in utilising Lee Topliss’s claim to gain an advantage, which had the desired effect in last years renewal. It’s going to be a very big ask for Extraterrestrial to win it, however with trip, track and ground all in his favour, and beyond the favourite Imo his chances stand out considerably more than others should those all important gaps appear. |
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Extra bet day 126. 1pt E.W. Oneladyowner 19.25 Doncaster 20-1 Boylesp. BOG write up to follow....
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Having gone through this race last night I was interested in a few, the unexposed Pearl Ice to continue David Barron’s great start to the season, the potentially well handicapped Baby Strange who seems to be running himself into form, and the one I have plummeted for Oneladyowner, who still just about slots into the unexposed bracket, with further progression looking on the cards.
Having watched the 10-1 disappear fairly rapidly with Ladbrokes last night for Baby Strange, and the contracting price of Pearl Ice my mind value wise was more or less made up in selecting Oneladyowner at his tasty price of 20-1. His record first time out in May reads 1-2, and although that was only a maiden and a low level handicap at Southwell behind the C/D specialist Even Stevens, he did progress nicely with racing last season, doing all of his best work spring through to summer. His form did tail off somewhat towards the back end, but was having his 4th run in approximately a month when under pressure a fair way out in a reasonable contest on his final appearance at Ascot, being eased once placing was out of the question, with a fair few in that contest bolstering up the form in their subsequent runs. Eddie Ahern makes his way over from Thirsk for 2 rides for this evenings racing at Doncaster, one of those being Oneladyowner whom he seems to have a great understanding of, winning 2 from 2 on him to date. The ground may be a slight issue, with his entire win’s to date coming on a sounder surface. His only race to date that has came on a soft surface was at Goodwood in September last season, where after slightly missing the kick was travelling well looking for room at the 2pole. He was still with plenty to do when Seb Sanders appeared to have gained clear passage, only to have to again be switched around horses to finish a very unlucky 3rd. Today, judging from recent meetings he has Imo a nice single figured stall to jump from, and fresh looks as good a time as any to catch him, looking one of the more likelier types to show improvement, for a yard begging to creep into form. |
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You been on holiday robster! You could be right about the fav in the Hunt cup and the course, this young lad only had 2 rides around here and from this middle draw could well get boxed in.
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No stewarts, not on holiday just taking a little step out of proceedings giving myself a small break. May scale things back in the coming weeks, could well be too busy at home/work to do a decent analysis of the cards etc.... hope your finding plenty? fancy anything today??
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Haven't had much of a look yet Robster, just had a scan through the runners. Have a couple of horses from my "horses to follow" list running today in Mont Ras in the Hunt cup and Azrael at Doncaster tonight(could go well at a big price dropped to 6fs), will go through a few races today. Without meaning to blow my own trumpet i've been in really good form this flat season, the nap won yesterday in Cono Zur had it at 16s and 18s, post them on the olbg and another forum.
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Well done Stewarts, if memory serves I think you've been keen on that horse on a few occasions before, nice price yesterday for you.
Final bet day 126. 1/2 pt E.W. double Oneladyowner & Extraterrestrial 20's & 10's with PP BOG. |
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Bet for day 132. 1pt E.W. Spas Dancer 15.40 Chester 14-1 PP BOG, write up to follow.....
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The 15.40 at Chester tomorrow is undoubtedly the most competitive on the card, and the one that has most definitely caught my attention is the Ed De Giles trained Spa’s Dancer, with the very eye catching Kieren Fallon up.
Although this horse can run well fresh he usually comes on for a run, and looked most definitely like he will come on a bundle from his seasonal debut this time round. In that race he set a very decent pace for a mile contest under Paddy Brennan, especially considering the very heavy ground at Sandown. However that decent pace was maintained until his stamina reserves wavered along with fitness approaching 2out, but did have them strung out like the proverbial washing for the majority of the journey. The 3 horses that finished in front of him that day all looked to be on the upgrade, having all won their previous respective starts, and Spa’s Dancer was at least good enough on seasonal debut to finish on their coat tails, with a further 12 lengths and change back to the remainder. Although his week finishing is constantly being questioned by plenty of pundits, I believe him dropping back to 7F around the tight contours of Chester to be a positive, and has plenty of half decent form on an easy surface to strengthen his case. I also think his new handler has the right idea in (presumably) having this horse ridden prominently, having looked to really enjoy proceedings at the head of affairs for the majority of his previous contest, and tomorrow has a decent stall to jump from in 3 should Kieren Fallon decide to deploy those tactics, and should be capable of being in the mix off his workable mark of 80. |
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Result day 120 & 126.
Kilcrea Alsa Un Pl -4pts Extraterrestrial Un Pl -2pts Oneladyowner Un Pl -2pts Double Lost -1pt Profit / Loss -9pts Total 220 1/4pts |
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Bet for day 133. 1pt E.W. Pravda Street 15.25 Ascot 40-1 PP(5places) BOG... write up to follow...
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Tomorrows renewal of the Victoria Cup looks it’s usual competitive race, and although within the field there may be a few fairly well treated individuals, nothing in this line can be ruled out with any degree of certainty, and there could well be plenty of mileage in siding with a bigger priced runner. Having scoured the field I’ve decided to have the Brian Ellison trained Pravda Street on side, as Imo 10-1 to finish in the first 5 looks more than a fair bet.
Pravda Street’s profile and age doesn’t suggest a massive amount of improvement is forth coming, however I have the feeling in tomorrow’s race that the ability to handle conditions, as well as being drawn in the right place could tip the winning scales significantly. Imo Pravda Street will handle the forecast conditions, and being drawn right down the middle could well prove the place to be tomorrow. Having found his way into Brian Ellison’s yard last year his new handler quickly found the key to him, going back to back in low level 7F events in June. He then contested the Carlisle Belle, however the combination of terrible draw and a quick run back both conspired against him in his hat trick bid. He subsequently had a month of rest before being brought back over tomorrows C/D which was also a class 2, running a screamer on G/S ground when staying on dourly to finish a close up 4th, with a few of the probables in the betting tomorrow looking held on that running. His seasonal debut was a few weeks over a testing 7 at Thirsk, where the very impressive winner that day Tariq Too also renews rivalry tomorrow. However Imo Pravda Street ran better than the bare result would indicate, having lost his action running into the bend after a couple of furlongs( looking like false ground to blame) seemed to be shuffled back on the rails, and didn’t really look like he enjoyed being checked in behind runners. He is now 7lb better of for 6 or so lengths, which ordinarily would have them a lot closer, but given the fact Tariq Too had a much smoother passage/run of the race, it’s fair to say there should in theory be very little if nothing between them tomorrow, and I am scratching my head as to why there is such a gulf in their respective prices. John Fahy is on board tomorrow, and has an excellent record for the yard from a very small sample, 3Wins 2places (30% win strike rate) and a level stake profit of £6.50 from his only 10 rides for the yard. Brian Ellison last 15 runners have form figures of 1-3-2-3-1-15-2-4-2-3-2-3-1-3-4, an indication that the yard remain in good health, and hopefully Pravda Street will add to his reasonable run of form. |
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hey Robbo had a couple of days off and so had a bit of time to study form and watch a few replays , check out White frost winning at Thirsk last year as a 3yo beating upwardly mobile 'Green Howard', and other good efforts against older Horses , 7lb well in whatever happens tomorrow imo
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Could not put you off Mac he like one of a few fell into my potentially well treated bracket, but of the 4yrold brigade I personally thought Lightning Cloud was more interesting, and looked to have plenty in hand of your selection when he signed off at Doncaster last season, and the pull at the weights may still not be enough. GL mate
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Extra bet(s) day 133. 1pt E.W. The Druids Nephew 14.00 Haydock 8-1 PP & 1pt E.W. Conquisto 15.40 Haydock 18-1 PP both BOG, write up to follow….
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^^^^^ 1/2pt E.W. double
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I know there is some fantastic flat action to mull over today, but I do like the look of the two nice handicap hurdles on today’s Haydock card, and in particular the chances of The Druids Nephew in the first, and later on in the 15.40 Conquisto.
I will start with TDN, having only had 5 life time start’s (2xP2P) he surely must have plenty to offer, and if his improving profile to date is a marker of what’s yet to come, he must have a massive say in the outcome of this race. He started life off under Andy Turnell’s handling last November over 22F in the soft at Ascot, and having been settled at the rear travelled nicely into the race, finishing a very respectable 3rd behind a promising pair of novices, pulling well clear of the remainder without being given a hard race. Nto was dropped back slightly in trip over 21F on decent ground at Kempton, again travelled into the race well and Imo although the favourite fell at the last TDN looked like he had come to win his regardless of this, powering away nicely towards the finish giving the impression he would benefit from being stepped back up in trip. He was stepped up in trip Nto in a grade 1 at Cheltenham, and once again was anchored off the pace before making smooth headway into the last quarter of the race, and although a well beaten 6th he was still running on well for pressure, out running his price of 100-1 by the proverbial mile. Today looks like he will get a decent pace to sit off, and the under foot conditions Imo will suit much better than his last couple of contests. He gets in today off 134, but Imo has the potential to make this look stupid given the fact the majority of his rivals are relatively well exposed. Now onto the Steve Gollings trained Conquisto, who now reverts to a much more suitable distance to employ his forcing tactics. He was a respectable 5th in this race last year (17F), and although he is rated 4lb above last years mark, technically with his promising riders claim can contest the race 6lbs better off. The lad up obviously still has a lot to learn, however he has given this horse 3 smashing rides to date, and does look very good value for his 10lb claim. The ground should not be of inconvenience, and the yard have started the month of May well, with nothing running in the interim to suggest their current vein of form is about to end, and with Conquisto also shaping like he’s still in form he should go well at his double figured odds. |
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Just watched lightening clouds win at Doncaster last year , would like to think 'white Frost is a bit better than that, because if he ain't lightening cloud is the likely top 4y old in the race , really tanked it that day ....ummm time for a saver methinks . No harm in revising opinions right up to the off in the light of new evidence has always been my motto gl
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Morning Rob
See Tom Segal has been following your thread  .He's only gone and tipped Pravda Street today. Best of luck today. |
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Result day 132.
Spa's Dancer Pl 7-2(14's adv) + 2 1/2pts Profit / Loss + 2 1/2pts Total 222 3/4pts Yes Monte Christo have noticed Tom Segal also likes Pravda Street, not sure if that’s a positive or a negative given his over all form the last couple of month's or so?? Believe he’s coming into a little form, so will just hope it continues with Pravda Street |
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therobster27,
Superb write-ups, as always, Good Luck, always! |
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As to you SOGY, have not been around for the last few day's to monitor "the weasels" selection's, hope your finding a few.
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Good luck Rob
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Cheers Pumphol, noticed you hit the bar again yesterday with Spa's Dancer, G luck with Cross Kennon today, although I think he's got it all to do giving lumps of weight to some potentially well treated rivals, but he will at least relish todays conditions.
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Just watched White Frosts other races, key seems to be letting him lead , his run at Doncaster against lightening cloud who is a contender today should not be taken at face value imo .In His last two runs he had the consistent handicapper striking spirit behind him, for a 3yo to see of that good Horse twice in a row is telling , this does not mean he will win today, but my sense that he is well handicapped
is restored ....so yes I am putting it up to to the formidable pairing of Pricewise and the Robster ! GL |
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Agreed with you mac on White Frost, so his run from a good draw was very disappointing.
Can't believe what happened with Conquisto Rob. Looked all set for a place. |
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Bit of a mixed bag of rides on my fancies today PHS.... A change of tactics on The Druids Nephew saw him only running a moderate race, a sound ride from John Fahy on Pravda Street despite being unplaced, and Conquisto's young jockey mistaking the 1/2F / distance pole as the winning post costing him a place. A little disappointing not to be getting some scraps back, but that's racing for you.
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yes, white frost very disappointing , but the eye catcher was lightening cloud
who looks one to follow ...ran really well from a middle draw , strapping sort will be on it next time ,Pravda street might have been placed with a low draw |
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Bet for day 137. 1pt E.W. Baby Strange 14.00 York 20-1 B365 (8.30am for 5Mins) 1pt E.W Branston 15.25 York 20-1 Betfred + 1/2pt E.W. double 20’s and 16’s B365 + 1pt Win saver The Fun Crusher 8-1 generally 15.35 York, all BOG.
Having thought Baby Strange was running into form I almost considered him Lto at Doncaster(drawn poorly), and with pricewise tipping it’s pointless replicating any of Tom Segals thoughts, I do agree that 20-1 with B365 to be far too big so I will be backing him accordingly, with my other fancy…… Having been interested in The Fun Crusher Lto I still am keen on his chances, however at his single figured price in an ultra competitive race like this is not stand out value, with his wide draw ebbing into the value factor significantly. I do think however he has the potential to be a very nice prospect, and connections looked to have taken their time with him, with ground trip and track all looking suitable on his second start of the campaign. The horse I feel that may represent excellent value is the old stager Granston at his huge odds of 20-1, a horse that has retained plenty of his ability season after season. One thing this horse does do is run well fresh and has a very good record overall but particularly in his latter years, record on seasonal debut for last 3 campaigns reads 2-2-1, off marks of 80,85 and 84 in similar class events. He seems fairly versatile regards trip and ground, and likes to be handy which can usually suit horses at York. Graham Gibbon’s has had a long association with this horse and takes the ride today, and from 10 rides (many in big field handicaps) reads 1-2-1-3-4-2-11th -1-2-8. He is now only 1lb above his last winning mark achieved on seasonal debut last year over 12F at Beverly, and has been a real money spinner for connections Imo. |
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Follow your thread and have helped me with plenty of winners.
but was wondering if this is the price you have secured or hope to get? again just wondering as often the price is gone when your post comes up! cheers and keep up the top picks. |
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Think your find he often takes his prices the night before
All the best for today Rob Red Jade my nap in the 3.35 reasons on the manl thread |
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sorry that will be meepoors thread when I write it
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wd. Nice ew - and nearly the winner !!
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twathed, I was doing my workings the previous evening for Baby Strange's race, but was side tracked and was going to finish the job this morning... however in the mean time Tom Segal put it up and the price collapsed. All race's that pricewise select in with B365( and some others) revert back to the original price for 5mins for small money the next day 8.30am-8.35am(times vary with certain firms). Only had £20 E.W., which is in the permitted £50 limit I seem to be restricted to on a Pwise selection. As pumphol points out I'm usually on the previous evening, but was in a position where I knew the price could be secured the next day... hope this helps
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wd
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