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for the new year (2)
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disgusting race robster. drifted to 25/1 and always out the back. never put in the race and pulled up.
dont know who 'they' are but 'they' knew with that one!!! just another one to add to the ever growing list. |
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Result day 106.
Five Out Of Five Un Pl -2pts Profit / Loss -2pts Total 236 1/4pts Having been at work yesterday it was a little alarming to see his S.P. at 14-1 on the replay when I got in, and although he is ridden like that I don't think "Ahem"yesterday was his day. |
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Bet day 108 3pts E.W. Fairoak Lad 15.30 Exeter 11-2 Betvictor BOG... write up to follow....
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Tomorrow’s 15.30 at Exeter the marathon handicap chase, and for me without a shadow of a doubt the class act in this line up giving weight to all is the Phillip Hobbs trained Fairoak Lad, ridden by Richard Johnson, and now steps up in trip to a distance he has always threatened to relish.
Tomorrow due to being cut a nice bit of slack from the assessor can slot lovely into this 0-125 contest, which I’m fairly sure is a sound piece of placing from his experienced trainer. Although he has only won novice events within his chasing career the 2nd of those contest’s when winning at Wincanton over 26F, was beating a few well regarded recruits into chasing, and looked impressive quickening away from his toiling rivals that day on the decent ground. Off the back of that excellent performance was made 7-1jtfav for the BetFred at Sandown, but after being less than convincing in the jumping stakes was pulled up, never really threatening to justify those odds. After being off the track for 494 days made his comeback in March at Ludlow, presumably being kept for the better ground. Although he can run well fresh he made only a satisfactory reappearance, with some shoddy jumping again evident, but good enough to find a leg when necessary before race fitness eventually took its toll. The one thing that appears evident throughout his career is that he’s been campaigned on decent ground, and as a hurdler/chaser to have the prefix good in every contested race just about tells its tale, with all 3 hurdle wins coming on good, and his 2 novice chases on G/firm and good. Having already alluded he can run well fresh, but also seems to benefit hugely from an outing, as his racing history corroborates and looked like he would benefit hugely for his latest return. Having gone through the race I’m finding plenty within the field that potentially may be towards the end of their rope class wise, and quite a few look like to be in the grip of the handicapper. Richard Johnson seems to be able to get a good tune out of this lad, and with the stable still in relatively good form they have every chance of enhancing their decent record on course. |
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Extra bet(s) day 108. 1pt E.W. Memory Cloth 16.10 Southwell 11-1 B365+ 1/2pt E.w double with Fairoak Lad 11's & 4's both B365 BOG write up to follow.....
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Having looked at the 16.10 at Southwell a little last night, and again this morning, I’ve talked myself into a smallish wager on Brian Ellison’s Memory Cloth. Although this horse appears not to have the form to win this particular contest, there are plenty other factors that have intrigued me regarding his placing, and probably better to be on at double figures if a gamble were to materialise.
Having won a mile maiden in very soft ground at Saint-Cloud, connections then thought him good enough to be considered for a G3 Nto at Chantilly, where the decent Benkabad won the race. Although Memory Cloth could only manage 6th , he did finish a position in front of Hannon’s Caranby Street, who would have been rated at the time around the 100 mark. Having come to these shores under Brian Ellison’s handling was given a fairly stiff mark on his British debut, and cut no ice when apprentice ridden in couple of class 2 contest’s at the back end of last season over a mile. He made his seasonal bow over 12F at Wolverhampton early March, again in class2 and again apprentice ridden, where he was running up against some in form horses and was never in a position to threaten the principles. Today he makes his fibre sand debut, and with this horse appreciating a slower surface he may well take to it nicely. His trainer has also brought him back markedly in trip from seasonal debut, and with the drop in trip comes the marked drop in class, with another significant factor being the disposal of the apprentice (albeit Imo a good one). Barry McHugh now takes over, and has a very good association with the yard having over a 25% strike rate from 111 rides, and many others being placed. I’m not entirely certain if Mr McHugh has fallen out with the Pears stable, as he has won on the likely favourite Sound Amigo all of his 4 career wins so far, and second guessing whether he had the option would probably be some what folly. But all things considered with the yards extremely good record around Southwell, and best part of a stone being sliced off his mark since arrival, this horse “could” be primed for a big race, with the market being without a doubt the best indicator if he was. |
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Have to agree with you regarding Memory cloth Robster, looks very interesting in this race. If he's not off, All right now has the sthwll form to go very close today. Good luck.
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WD Rob. Place double landed. Only just though. Your bookie must hate you
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Well done Robster, tad unlucky with Memory Cloth, traded 1.72 IR.
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Fingers crossed but upto now have not been restricted, only back small fry and and use a a varied amount of firms, so would be very surprised if they did. Bit annoyed with myself regarding the 15.30, put all my faith in Fairoak Lad, but stared at 11-1 for the winner with B365 for an age last night, still couldn't change my mind for a saver as he was the last one scratched from my danger list
 .And when Memory Cloth drifted to 16's I thought my doe was done. |
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well done rob another winning day for you, keep it up
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Bet for day 109. 2pts E.W. Courageous 15.20 Beverly 8-1 Whill BOG... write up to follow....
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Max stake 6.25 online for all 3 accounts for me.... Time to get walking to the shop I think.
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Once the first meeting at Beverly arrives I know the flat season is well and truly underway, a run of the mill course in East Yorkshire it may be, but there’s nowhere I’d personally be than standing on my tip toes on the raised piece of ground near the big screen in the Picnic enclosure, hoping as they flash into view from the distance my horse has still some sort of a chance.
Having made a bee line for the Beverly card and given it the once over, I concentrated my efforts on the biggest, and possibly the most competitive race on the card, the 5F sprint at 15.20. I did actually start by assessing Courageous chances first, and the more I delved into the dynamics of the race, the more I thought him to have a solid E.W. shout. There appears to be a good few involved tomorrow lacking a fitness edge, and it’s fair to say that a good few within the line up probably want it on the easier side of good if not softer. Tomorrow Imo he’s the best of the Kevin Ryan’s trio, and having had a couple of nice spins on the A.W. recently goes back to turf on what looks a reasonable / workable mark. Having been fairly highly tried as a 2/3yrold, taking in plenty of listed contests as well as a shot at the Racing Post Trophy as a 2yrold, reached the lofty mark of 101. That appeared to be a cross to bare, an it wasn’t until the back end of 2010 when his mark had receded that he showed any worthwhile form, a 3rd & 2nd in class 2 sprinting events on decent ground both off 86. He also started slowly last season off his revised mark in the 90’s, again showing form when dropping to 86, and again on decent ground when 3rd over Haydock 5F at the back end. He has now dropped to 86, and has been campaigned in a different way in the fact he’s had 2 pipe openers on a poly surface, and has also looked a different prospect form wise this time around from his previous seasons. He now tackles a very stiff 5F, and Imo will suit his prominent style of racing to a tee, and has been allocated one of the plumb draws to maximise his good early toe, and to my eye looks primed to been involved. |
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Result day 108.
Fairoak Lad Pl 100-30(11-2adv) +0pts Memory Cloth pl 12-1 (11's adv BOG) +1 1/2pts Double Place bit Won +2pts Profit / Loss +3 1/2pts Total 239 3/4pts |
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Bet for day 110. 2pts E.W. Ogee 16.20 Cheltenham 20-1 Bet victor BOG write up to follow.....
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Having gone through this race at Cheltenham I do really fancy Ogee to step out of his recent doldrums, and could well be feasibly treated on his current mark now returning to hurdling.
After having contested some decent novice events as a hurdler in his 2008/09 season, Ogee peaked at a mark of 143, finishing a nice 3rd on his final hurdle start off that mark before embarking on a chasing campaign in his following season. After making a pleasing start in that sphere the wheels somewhat came off, looking very much like he has been plagued by injury during the last couple of year. He did however shape quite well on his reappearance in February, but Nto at Newbury failed to build on his comeback run, looking to loose confidence in the jumping department, and it’s fair to say Jimmy McCarthy had accepted defeat a very long way out before pulling up. That simply was too bad a run to be true, and I’m fairly sure this horse retains ability, with connections sensibly coming back to the smaller obstacles. I also think the ground could also play a part tomorrow, and although he has plenty of form on a decent surface, being by Generous I really think he appreciates a bit of juice in the ground, and form with the prefix soft under both codes reads, 1-4-1-4-6-4-2-2-3-1-3-1-8-7-2 . Jimmy McCarthy as per usual takes the reigns, and being a fresh horse in spring could well be the time to catch him now on a 7lb lower mark when last seen in this sphere. |
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Result day 109 & 110.
Courageous Un Pl -4pts Ogee N/R +0pts Profit / Loss -4pts Total 235 3/4pts |
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Bet day 112. 2pts E.W. Daring Indian 17.25 Newbury 16-1 PP& BetVic BOG…
…….The lucky last on today’s card at Newbury looks an extremely competitive affair, with plenty bringing A.W. credentials to the fore, and one or two looking to have nice improving profiles to continue their respective rise through the ranks. Having gone through the card a decent enough case can be made for plenty who are prominent in the betting, and for the last couple of years this contest has been won by a couple of very nice horses in Modun and Forte De Marmi, who both justified there strong support into favouritism on route to seriously better things. I’m not sure there is anything of that calibre in this line up, but the beauty about this game is you just never know. Because of the openness of the contest I’m going to rely on a note book horse of mine Daring Indian, who could well prove to be a better horse on turf than he’s shown on the A.W. thus far. This horse obviously cut no ice in the grand scheme of The Juddmonte Farm operations, and was quickly dispensed with washing up into the Ian William’s stable at the back end of last season. He did manage to win a class 4 handicap on Kempton’s poly surface, and beat Emma’s Gift who went on to improve her mark by best part of a stone within a couple of runs. After that contest Ian William’s give this horse a nice break, and when brought back to the course was stepped up to 12F. However he did look fresh in the early part of that contest, over racing at times and far from settling, and not really given a hard time of things late on once beaten. He made his British turf debut 11days ago at Pontefract, where Imo the race was lost at the start, with Ryan Powell opting to sit and tuck in from his car park draw, which seemed to take longer than usual to do with other jockeys holding their ground, ending up being best part of 15-20 lengths of the speed in no time at all stone cold last. He remained at the rear for the majority of the race, before being asked a very big question running into the straight, the answer was inevitable with far too much to do. He did however stay on very nicely under a hand ride in the middle of the track, showing some nice work when it was all over, going under the radar somewhat in doing so. Ian Williams has kept the faith with Ryan Powell, and his mount today has been given a much kinder draw for him to work with. The ground is an unknown quantity regarding his chance, but having made a pleasing enough debut on Heavy ground at Lonchamp in April last year, he now returns to a soft surface for the first time since that run, and these conditions may prove to be the making of him. Ian Williams has been in tremendous form for a while now, but his last 5 runners have form figures of 1-1-1-2-PU, suggesting his yard are still in extremely good order, and at his double figured price Daring Indian will do for me in a contest you will need plenty of luck. |
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hey Rob i see a horse you tipped a couple of runs back 'the Tichbourne' has been backed down from 80/1 here on betfair .I was going to have a couple of quid on at 80s now 38
to one ..main fancy is Pintura and Fury has the draw but ,The Tichbourne has his ground as well gl |
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Mac, did contemplate his chance today, and was pushed out to 66-1 with B365 around the time of my thinking. Far too many on my short list to get involved, but I wouldn't rule out a big run with the ground looking in his favour.
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have also backed this one Rob, i honestly didnt think he was asked any sort of question on that pontefract run. he had attracted money early that day but drifted like a barge before the off. powell did a lot of changing of hands and waving of the stick and he came home well in what i wouldnt even call hands and heels imo. back to his winning mark i also think he has a massive chance today.
best of luck |
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Bet for day 117. 3pts win The Fun Crusher & 1pt E.W. Rio's Rosanna 15.10 Beverly 4-1 generally & 10-1 Betvictor both BOG.... write up to follow....
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Having gone through the probables of the 15.10 at Beverly I simply can’t get away from Tim Easterby’s The Fun Crusher, and although his owner Jim McGrath wouldn’t tell you it was Thursday tomorrow if you asked him, there’s no denying his chestnut geldings chances in tomorrows fairly week affair.
This horse did not see a race course until last April as a 3yrold, and made a very nice start to his racing career over Thirsk’s 12F, accounting for a few race hardened animals, those finishing close up all with marks nearing 80. Imo he won that day with a degree of authority, and never knocked about by Robert Winston in doing so, giving the impression he could make up into a nice horse with time. However from that impressive debut run was not seen again until March last month, making his reappearance over Doncaster’s 10F on good ground. That day everything looked hard work for him, and was under the pump for the majority of the contest, with the combination of needing the run and being “ahem” raced in behind horses most definitely counting against him. Tomorrow he steps back up in trip, and could well be suited to the stiffer demands of Beverly’s mile and a half, and should at least get an uninterrupted run for home with horses usually fanning out across the course from the home turn in the described going. He is only having his 3rd lifetime start tomorrow, and with assumed progression and higher fitness levels he could be thrown in running off his mark of 80. If plan A was to go for a Burton, Rio’s Rosanna look’s a decent plan B, and could well be the one to take full advantage should The Fun Crusher not fire. She also look’s like a stiffer test will benefit , and will also have came on plenty for her pipe opener a couple of weeks ago at Catterick. She is by Captain Rio out of a Slip Anchor mare, and could very well improve for the surface and the distance, looking to have Imo more to offer than most and for me is best of the rest. |
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Robster, Jimbo was on the Monday jury in the RP on the Monday after TFC had run at Donny, and he was asked to name a horse to follow from the weekend - he put forward his own horse. He'll not be happy when he reads what you said about him
  I think it's what Nevo might call an insurance job - a cert to be in the 3 at least against a pretty exposed bunch, a few of which are coming back from a break in what could be testing ground. What do you think about the ground for him? If he improves for it he could lap these. Sir Hugh put it up as an eyecatcher as well, wonder if he'll be tempted to put it, even at 4-1?! |
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Result day 112.
Daring Indian Un Pl -4pts Profit / Loss -4pts Total 231 3/4pts George I was not aware of that... I always respect Jim McGrath comments as a pundit, but when he's put on the spot about the chances of his own horses it's all smoke and mirrors...(can't blame him for that I suppose). He's not a bad judge and if they do fancy TFC today, 4-1 is far too big given they do like a tilt in the ring. |
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P.S. Your right the ground is the ultimate poser, however his sire seems to get plenty of progeny that like cut over middle distance, especially 3yrold+, and his dam only ran twice with the prefix soft in the described going runner up on both occasions.
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Another inspection at 11. Sounds like it might be last horse standing never mind who handles the ground! Good luck if they do go ahead.
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Bet for day 119. 1pt E.W. Montaff 15.30 Ripon 25-1 Betfred & Ladbrokes BOG....
.....Well having put Montaff up Lto I’m prepared to stick by him tomorrow despite his disappointing performance, but I could have been slightly premature in tipping him a few weeks ago, and could well surprise tomorrow as he did in last years contest. As stated he won this corresponding race last season off 97, and has slipped back to that very mark in tomorrow’s renewal, and Sam Hitchcott the man on board then also takes over at the helm. There are major similarities in his current season as to the way he was campaigned in last years build up, having had a break from the November handicap started the new season off in Dubai before disappointing at Kempton, before bouncing back to win tomorrows race at Ripon. That race was on totally different ground to what he will encounter tomorrow, but does however have a reasonable record with plenty of dig in the going, as you would expect by Monjeu. His form in ground described as soft or worse reads 2-1-2-11th Most of his decent performances were in spring early summer last year, as they were the previous season, and tomorrow could well be a case of ….The right place, at the right time, with Coral's odds compilers taking a more optimistic view regarding his chance than their competitors . |
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Extra bet(s) day 119. 1pt E.W. Enter Paradise 15.30 Sandown 33-1 B365 1/4odds 5 places + 1/2pt E.W. double with Montaff.. 33's & 12's both BOG....
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Today’s feature race on the Sandown card, The Betfred Gold Cup which look’s a fiercely contested renewal, but it’s fair to say that majority of the line up are thoroughly exposed, and the handicapper looks to have a handle on plenty others that take the stage. Saying that there maybe a few in the field that potentially have more to offer on their respective current marks, with the likes of Viking Blonde, Roalco de Farges and non more so than Enter Paradise fitting into that bracket Imo.
It’s the latter of that trio I’m eager to be on at his juicy double figured price, having only had 3 lifetime starts under rules +17 P2P’s, he remains fairly lightly raced for an 8yrold, and could well have improved for the (presumed) recent switch to Charlie Mann’s handling. Having made his debut under rules over 28F at Stratford last May for Mrs Crow, he only found the half decent hunter My Flora superior that day, and found trying to give her 7lb a bridge too far. He then made his debut for Charlie Mann In February this year, in a small field novice at Fakenham over 25F on G/soft ground. That day at time his jumping was spectacular when Dave Crosse fired him at his obstacles, but in the same breath on occasions your heart was in your mouth, brushing few plenty looking very novicey. He did go on to win that event , and in behind him that day making his chase debut was Like Minded, and his hurdle rating of 135 made him undoubtedly the one to beat, Enter Paradise did so in fairly bloodless fashion with binoculars needed to see Kauto The Rock rated about a 120 horse. He then went to contest the Foxhunters at Cheltenham as a lively outsider, however after brushing through the 3rd sent his rider to the floor, but was at least being ridden prominently, a possible indicator they were confident of getting the trip well, who knows were he would have finished but My Flora ran a super race to fill a place. David Crosse is now back in the plate, and with the Charlie Mann stable having a resurgents in recent form, his mark of 134 on handicap debut may well prove to be fairly lenient, and 33-1 too big not to explore that possibility should his jumping hold out. |
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Result day 117.
The Fun Crusher & Rio's Rossana both N/R's Total 231 3/4pts N/R in Montaff's race only 2places & 35p R4 |
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Final bet day 119. 1pt E.W. Act Of Kalanisi 14.00 Sandown 16-1 B365 BOG... + 1/4pt E.W. treble with above two 16's, 33's & 8-1. write up to follow...
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Having looked at this contest last night, I have decided to revisit it again this morning, and have decided to play small on Act Of Kalinisi, in the hope he can bounce back to form.
Having been just above average as a staying handicapper on the level he wasted no time in opening his account over hurdles, winning a fair novice event on debut in November 2010 at Newbury on G/soft ground. He then took in a couple of grade 1 contests, and it may of been a case of too much too soon, looking very much out of his depth in both of those events during his first hurdle campaign. He did however win his concluding race of that particular season when landing a class 2 handicap over Ascot's 20F on soft ground off 130, showing some excellent battling qualities when tenaciously staying on to hold the late challenge of On Borrowed Wings. His first couple of runs in his current campaign were again fairly ambitious, taking in a grade 2 class 1 event on debut, then a listed class 1 on his next assignment, running fair races in the grand scheme of things. He was then dropped agin to class 2 handicap company in January, but was unfortunate to come up against a couple in Swincombe Flame & Featherbed Lane, whom both had improved rapidly before turning the Lanzarotte into a match. Act Of Kalinisi now drops back to class 2 company, after not quite cutting the mustard in slightly better contests than this, and most definitely did not face up to Lto’s fitting of the first time visor. He has a fairly good record with plenty of cut in the ground, and it’s fair to say in this sphere his better performances have all came right handed, and with the fitting of the first time tongue tie he may prove to be half decent E.W. value at 16-1, with the trainer again hoping Brendan Powell's valuable 5lb claim can make the difference. |
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Cerium
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Defo TNOP, still kicking myself!!!! first time he's strung 7 races together in a long time, and seemed to have more than his fair share off luck yeterday.
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WD rob.
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good run by aok ,n1 robster
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One you backed last time at Sou, just won the first at Ripon.
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Bet day 120. 2pts E.W. Kilcrea Asla 10-1 Boyle sp BOG...
..... Today decent betting opportunities look to be at a premium, and now the turf flat season is cranking up nicely it’s fairly ironic the only meeting taking place on British soil today is a jumping card, does the B.H.B. use Lancelot and set of balls number 6 to define the season’s fixtures??? The mind boggles. Anyhow, soap box away and onto the process of attempting to pick winners, and at Ludlow I believe Graeme Mcpherson’s Kilcrea Asla comes into this contest with a few pieces of recent form that entitles him to be on the premises. His current mark of 124 leaves absolutely no room for manoeuvre, and at first glance looks well and truly up against it, however every other runner in the line up has not won over their current respective marks either, so a personal best required by all. Kilcrea Asla it’s fair to say may possibly be suited to further, however has not a bad record running at 20F in all spheres, with form figures of ….. 7-2-2-2-2, and he has ran plenty of solid races give a take furlong from that distance, and at least has some course form to boot. He has been runner up in a couple of class2 event already this season, admittedly those contests were exclusively for veterans, but I personally thought the form to be ok in the context of this event. His couple of races class wise have been fairly decent one’s, cutting no ice at Cheltenham but ran a sound race Lto at Haydock. Having been anchored in the rear third of that contest, he travelled nicely into it and was with the leader jumping 2 out, but his run just flattened out coming home a one paced 4th, with the 2nd & 3rd home running sound races Nto. He at least looks like he’s still very much in form and could go well at his double figured price, especially if they go quick in the early stages. |