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for the new year (2)
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Tomorrow sees one of the biggest cavalry charges of the season over a mile, that’s Ascot’s Royal Hunt Cup, and within this race there usually can be one or two genuine pattern / group horses in the waiting, with this race often a spring board into that company. Cesare is possibly the best recent example I can give in the modern era, winning this off 94 and going on to achieve a B.H.A. rating of 120 at his peak, with many other winners stepping up into higher class.
Fair Trade has already been mixing it at a much higher level than tomorrow’s company, and Imo is already in the class bracket many in this race won't be able to achieve. He has been given 4lbs of respite from the assessor due to his come back run over 10F at Kempton, however Imo a line can go straight through that particular piece of form in the context of tomorrow’s event. Firstly it was on the A.W., secondly it was over 10F, thirdly it was his first run for 547 days, and to top the lot the race was ran at a dawdle and he was ferociously pulling Paul Hanagan’s arms out for the first 3 or so furlongs of that race, clearly the gelding operation not sorting those tendencies out. That’s the excuses out of the way, and now down to the business of why he could go close tomorrow….. The race has been dominated by 4 yrolds as of late, but 5yrolds did have a decent spell in this contest prior, and as a 5yrold he certainly hasn’t got to many miles on the clock, having only his 10th career start tomorrow. His 7 starts outside his maiden status have all been in arguably better class than tomorrow, 2 condition events, 2 in listed company and 3 group races including a mid division finish in a 2000 guineas, and now makes his handicap debut in a class 2 affair. Hopefully the frenetic pace tomorrows contest will be run at will help him settle, and a mile ran at pace is exactly what he looks to need. The ground according to reports is drying out all the time, and mid way through racing today the straight was changed to good, and with dry conditions and sunny spells forecast tomorrow, that decent ground will most definitely suit. Hughie Morrison has started to get amongst the winners in June, and many others running well, highlighting the wellbeing of the yard. Daryl Holland has a nigh on 20% strike rate for the trainer in the last 12 months or so, and is showing a nice little profit of £19 to level stakes, and his prowess around the contours of Ascot have been very rewarding in the last 12 or so months, and hopefully Fair Trade posses the ability to give those stats an even better look come tomorrow, who appears to have been targeted at this for some time. |
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Result day 170.
Botham Un Pl -2pts Profit / Loss -2pts Total 217 1/4pts |
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therobster27 04 Jun 12 19:36
Miami Gator not the same horse this season Just won at 25/1  Thought the same as you though was tempted at the price today  |
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Talk about after timing but 15lb lower from when it won 4 races ago, always the way when there is a big meeting on.
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Bet for day 174. 3pts E.W. Kirthill 16-1 Betfred BOG, write up to follow.....
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^^^16.25 Ascot
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Tomorrow’s listed handicap at Royal Ascot looks a very tricky race, but I’m prepared to have a larger than usual bet on Luca Cumani’s Kirthill, who looks second string on paper, but nothing like a second string jockey booked for the ride. Kieran Fallon obviously fancies the chances of Danadana, and the improving son of Dubawi may well give him a good spin, but my preference is for the Ryan Moore ridden Kirthill, whose chance is not as obvious as his stable companions, but none the less Imo is a good one.
Kirthill did actually make the track as a 2yrold, and that was at the back end of the season on good ground over Doncaster’s 7F, and ran an excellent debut to finish runner up in a race that had a few nice animals involved. He was then put away for the season, and made his reappearance in a fiercely contested Newbury maiden, where he was in fact made a warmish 2-1fav, and after being held up in touch weekend out of proceedings to finish a well beaten 8th. Having been a punter for a good few years I’ve been around long enough to know that Luca Cumani is a trainer than never hurries his horses, and in my experience they usually come on a huge amount for having a run. This horse last season was no exception to that rule, after disappointing in that maiden at Newbury, with that run under his belt made no mistake in a fairly ordinary affair at Newmarket over a mile in good/soft ground. It’s fair to say this horse’s progression last year was only gradual, but did at least finish the year off in style by taking a nice class 2 handicap over 10F at Newbury, winning a tad cosy Imo. Luca Cumani appears to again have brought him back with the impression there’s still plenty to come, both fitness and improvement wise. That run was at York mid May, and his finishing position of 9th slightly misleading in the fact that Kieran Fallon had accepted defeat a long way out and very much spared Kirthill a hard race. He had in fact been off the bridle a fair way out that day, and started his run before the 4 pole when along side the race fit Gatewood, and did match that horse for making up a lot of ground in a couple of furlongs before his fitness gave way. Tomorrow he gets a softer surface to run on, and looking at his knee action will benefit hugely for some cut in the ground, and as well as the extra fitness on his side he also gets a very handy 12lb pull with Gratewood. The Cumani outfit have strung together some decent form of late, and unlike the punters he certainly won’t mind which of his 2 wins tomorrow, and I’m sure that view is echoed by the inform Ryan Moore, who is riding with the utmost confidence at present. |
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Result day 172.
Fair Trade Un Pl -2pts Profit / Loss -2pts Total 215 1/4pts Pumphol have not touched base with the thread over the last couple of day's, and have just noticed your comment about Miami Gator. Did actually look at the race over night as Bet365 had priced it up, but at 14's I could not get involved....25-1 may have been a different story, in conditions that suited.... that's racing! |
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Ryan Moore
Kirthill Looked to run ok at York on his reappearance last month. I don't know much about the horse other than that I hear he is working ok, and you always have to respect one of Luca's here. The horse looked very progressive last year and has winning form with cut in the ground too. But it remains to be seen whether he can cope with a 6lb rise in the weights from his Newbury win last season, especially as there are no end of horses in here on a steep upward curve, some of whom are sure to have further improvement to show today. |
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Problem with Kirthill is that he kind of took advantage of a sluggish pace at Newbury in which he was well placed to pick of the leader who bid to make all, that leader has since struggled and was well beaten at Epsom, I agree he could well have the run of the race tomorrow robster espcially with the pace not likely to be as strong as it was at york due to the ground and the lack of pace setter now kings gambit is out of the race. best of luck I actually perfer Kirthill to Dandana. Just to note I thought Gatewood at York was having first run as well.
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All the best Rob
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Yes Top3man Gatewood was having his first run that day too, my thinking actually was he was probably straighter than Kirthill that day, and again at time of writing had been looking at several other races. Fair play to that horse, looks to have improved and is easily group horse on that performance. Kirthill ran a decent enough race, I do think he's improved just not enough to trouble the judge on this occasion.
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Bet for day 175. 1pt E.W. on each King Of Jazz & Desert Law 18-1 VCbet+Joe's & 16-1 B365 BOG 4-1+ offer, write up to follow....
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Ok mate, just didnt want you to discounnt the form on gatewood being more fit for having had a run. Best of luck
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Tomorrows Wokingham is as per usual is a devil of a head scratcher, and to my eye there are only a handful within this field that have an unexposed profile, with more than a few of the usual suspects at this level once again showing up to lock horns. The late inclusion of Lightning Cloud may well have thrown a spanner into the works for many a punter, and undoubtedly will be high on everyone’s short list as he was on mine, slotting very nicely into the unexposed list. However It’s a case of one from the top, and one from the bottom for me (draw wise), and in making my selection(s) for this race statistics have had a heavy influence in my calculations, along with the potential of the two individuals I’ve selected.
Having looked at the history of this race in terms of age winners and draw, I’ve came to the conclusion you need be 4 and have a low or high draw to win… I know the course at Ascot is fairly new etc.., and some folk may discard many of the old statistics, but Imo that would be folly. 17 of the last 31 renewals have gone to a 4yrold, and 22 of the last 31 have gone to a horse carrying 9st or less… There may well be floors in that stat in the mere fact that minimum weights have risen in recent years, but I thought it relevant all the same. The draw has also been massive in years gone by, and in the last 20 renewals 9 have been drawn 20+ , 8 have been drawn 7 or less and only 3 winning from anywhere in between, the latest of those being a group horse in a handicap. On the above pretences the 3 that made the short list were King Of Jazz, Desert Law and the previously mentioned Lighting Cloud, but decided I would only rely on my original 2 at the prices, and apart from the above stats here’s my other reasoning… King of Jazz looks like he will appreciate a true run 6F, and on his penultimate run at Doncaster finished his race off very well, doing as well as he could from his single figured draw. His latest start was over 7 on course in soft was also solid enough, running a very nice 3rd behind Global Village, only to see his run peter out late on after nicely creeping into on the far rail, giving me the impression that the ground tomorrow will pose no problems, and dropping back a furlong could prove to be beneficial, with 18-1 on offer more than a fair reflection of his chances. Now onto Desert Law who also ran in that race at Doncaster, and after being fairly prominent throughout looked to get tired late on, giving the impression he needed the run on seasonal debut. Nto he showed what he was all about, travelling strongly in behind the break neck pace of the Epsom Dash, and after being denied a run at a couple of crucial stages he was the one that gave the winner Stone of Folca the most to think about, still giving generously in the closing stages, giving the impression stepping back up would suit. His only 2 visits to Ascot have yielded a 2nd behind Morache Music on Shergar Cup day (stone better off for 1 3/4lengths), and a very credible effort in listed class(5F). This step up to 6 a must, and can take advantage of racing 5lbs better off in tomorrow’s race before his mark goes up. |
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Result day 174.
Kirthill Un Pl -6pts Profit / Loss -6pts Total 209 1/4pts |
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very useful draw stats you have come up with there Rob on the Wokingham ....great stuff
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Cheers Mac, seem to remember you having a little saver on Lightning Cloud in his previous race, ticks quite a few of the right boxes today as well, 14-1 for a short time this morning did look a gift with Ladbrokes if your on, but will stand by the 2 I've chosen.GL mate
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no question Desert Law potentially well treated still but the way he trav in extreme speed test at Epsom got me thinking he's essentially all speed....6f on softish at Ascot is at the other end of the sprinting spectrum. GL tho...fine write-up
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just to check, do those draw stats take into account the switch last year whereby low went from stands side to far side? cheers.
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Entertaining stuff Robster, well done. Im all over Desert Law here, he's a very consistent customer, drawn on what i believe to be the right side, travels extremely well which is ideal for these top hcaps and is improving.
Good luck either way and i will be following this fred from now on  |
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I too initially thought this horse was all about speed Duncan, however I changed my opinion of that watching some of his 6F run’s in summer last year, at Newmarket last July switched from one side of the course to the other and was running on strongly not beaten far (would have been beaten even less if he’d have stayed where he was). And picked up well Nto in the Shergar Cup race, just being out pointed by Morache Music inside the distance (now 12lb better off). Soft ground the issue, but has gone well in G/soft.
Did take into consideration the racing for change, and the stalls re numbering, if my calculations in those workings were correct, it should work out as advised. |
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therobster27 Well done and good luck today,I admire how you have stuck at this, I would have struggled through the recent months having had what can only be described as a January that most of us will only dream of
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Fair point LittleSuzieLays, but you never win a football game in 45 minutes. Hopefully I can get back onto the upward curve soon, and yes it would be very nice for another month like January, but I do seem to run in snatches so would not rule out a good run soon. GL
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therobster27 I dont doubt for one moment that you will hit another big one>You have been close many a time>The difference between your methods and most others is that you stick to them and do gain the rewards>Good luck
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thanks for reply, robster...will dig out those 6f vids again!
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Tom Segal makes the point that Lightening strike won his race up the middle in the 7f Victoria Cup .In the light of the stats for middle drawn numbers over 6f, probably not much different over seven - so it looks a valid argument ...did not get the 14/1 so will just have to take the 9/1 if still available
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Bet day 176......
......Having gone through the card at Pontefract nothing has caught my attention as standout, however more than a few made small appeal, and have decided to have a rare E.W. lucky 15 to the tune of 3 pts in total (£2 E.W.). I have struck the bet with Bet Fred to keep things simple(nice bonus, BOG etc..), and have summarised their individual chances below… Leg 1. WhatsoFunny 14.40 8-1. Seems to be on the drift and not expected today, however it’s her first run for Ruth Carr having left Roger Varian, with Peter Saville retaining ownership. Ruth’s grandfather, David Chapman had some very good winners for Mr Saville in the 80’s/90’s, notably the yards flag barer Chaplin’s Club, and maybe hopeful of resuming those good old day's. Whatsofunny has only had a couple of starts this season, and was only keeping on at the one pace over Brighton’s 7F Lto, and stepping up in trip on a stiffer course, as well as an easy surface may see her in a different light. Leg 2. Tamarrud 15.10 9-2. Has not run on turf yet, but looks a certain improver for it. His seasonal debut was over 12F at Kempton 11 days ago, and ran better than his finishing result suggested, making good ground mid race to rush around the outside, still with every chance with 2 to run before tiring out of proceedings. Authorized is having a fair start to his stud career, and his progeny look suited to 10F, with plenty doing well on an easy surface. S Bin Suroor starting to get his horse’s into top gear, and has a very good 32% strike rate at Pontefract. Sylvestre De Sousa also has a nice record on course in the last 12 months, with a 23% strike rate and £15 level stake profit, as well as a 27% strike rate for Bin Suroor in the same period, with a whopping £81.88 to level stakes profit. Leg 3. Mr Crystal 16.10 8-1. Out of sorts lately but just the type that’s capable of bouncing back. Only won a sh/hd in April in soft ground over 22F on course, but had pulled 18 lengths clear of Descaro that day, looking at ease on the testing ground. Micky Hammond has booked a very useful 5lb claimer today, and in doing so in theory gets his mark 2lb below that last recent winning one. The faster they go the more his stamina will benefit, and will probably handle these conditions a lot better than most, on a track he seems to relish. Leg 4. Dream Walker 17.10 5-2 . Price has contacted, as well as his task made easier with the defection of a few in the race. The return to a softer surface and stiff track like Pontefract could be ideal, having dotted up in those conditions on his seasonal debut at Yarmouth. He also ran an excellent 3rd there Lto under his 12lb penalty(G/firm), and both contests are working out reasonably well given the grade. He could still prove to be a blot on the handicap at 64 given his rapid improvement, and looks set for a big run all things considered. |
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^^^^^Guesser^^^^^
 Only joking, as you know! |
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Good luck - think whatsofunny need good ground tho
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.... Having been on such a bad run I have considered buying a pin, and definitely a little bit of (calculated) guessing with my selections today..GL TNM |
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therobster27,
Fabulous write up, as always! Good Luck, always! |
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Maybe gman, but thought she travelled nicely on heavy ground on her 2nd start this season, just looked an inadequate trip and spared a hard race accordingly when others quickened away.
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Result day 175.
Desert Law Un Pl -2pts King Of Jazz Un Pl -2pts Profit / Loss -4pts Total 205 1/4pts |
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Bet for day 181. 3pts win Clowance House 16.30 Folkestone, 100-30 Betvic write up to follow...
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Having perused tomorrow’s priced up racing this evening, I did think Clowance House to be the most interesting contender on the card, and on further inspection just simply can’t get away from his chance.
This horse has not ran on the flat for the thick end of 3 years, and without a doubt looks to have had his fair share of injury problems. He has not been with his current handler that long, but Barry Brennan looks to have instantly found the key to him, with his new inmate showing a very willing attitude Lto when winning a maiden hurdle at Towcester. That day he had the first time tongue strap on (which he retains in tomorrow’s contest), and after looking like being picked up by the favourite Kings Destiny on the run in late on, found plenty for pressure and won going away. Tomorrow he is slipped into the lowest level he can contest off his current mark of 75 (class 5 0-75), and baring in mind he was contesting the G3 Queens Vase at Royal Ascot only 3 flat runs ago (albeit in 2009), and was a very honourable 7th in that contest after holding every chance passing the 2 pole. Sam Twiston-Davies rode him for his recent maiden hurdle win, and tomorrow younger sibling Willie takes over and can reduce his already interesting mark by a further 7lb’s. The yard could not be in better form, with their last 10 runners over jumps producing form figures of 1-2-5-F-1-1-3-2-1-2, and Willie Twiston-Davies is also making a good fist of things on the level recently. All things considered he did look a potentially big price of 100-30, regardless of how well handicapped his nearest rival in the betting Alfraamsey looks. |
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Rob,have you had a look at how well you do in class 2 or 3 handicaps compared with the 'lowest level'?
And also the prices in the lower level nonsense don't seem to be very high. I always tell people on a saturday to have a look at your thread. Just mentioning what I've noticed.Keep it tight and you'll be back with vengeance..gl.. |
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Result day 176 & 181.
Multi bet - 1 1/2 pts Clowance House - 3pts Profit / Loss - 4 1/2pts Total 200 3/4pts PS. twathed you may have a point regarding the prices, and I would agree I have had more success in the better class handicaps over the seasons. However value does not always lie in a big priced runner, and I also subscribe to the theory a 20-1 winner in a class 6 handicap at Southwell, has the same effect on you P+L as a 20-1 of the Grand National, not necessarily as rewarding, but none the less gets the money in the coffers. Ironically I have my eye on a couple in lesser contest's today, and will post a little later if the price's are suitable. GL with yours today. |
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Bet day 183. 1pt E.W. Lady Sylvia 17.00 Windsor 10-1 B365 & 2pts win Lady Percy 17.50 Salisbury 100-30 B365 + 1/2pt E.W. double both BOG…, getting on now as the prices seem to be going the longer I'm waiting..... Both still fair Imo.
Today’s British flat action comes to us from Windsor and Salisbury, and it’s a runner at each of those venues that has caught my attention today. They both run in the lucky last at their respective meeting, and both contested the same race Lto, they are Lady Sylvia at Windsor, and Lady Percy over at Salisbury. The former Lady Sylvia was 3rd home when the above two clashed Lto, but there was plenty to like about that performance. After being patiently ridden by Jacob Moore at the rear of the field made nice headway on the bridle to go mid division, and looked to be travelling as well as anything at the two pole. When Jacob Moore asked this filly to quicken the response was not instant, and although slightly isolated away from the action unfolding down the centre in the closing stages, Lady Sylvia willing joined in and stayed on very nicely, looking very much like she will now benefit from stronger handling and a few flicks of the whip. She does appear to be at least progressing and learning with racing, and can also boast a winning mentality within this line up, and more improvement looks inevitable with the yard also looking to be in reasonable heart at present. Now onto the winner of that contest Lto Lady Percy, who also looked to benefit from a more restraining ride, and Imo look’s good value for a 4lb rise in today’s similar contest. Lady Percy was brought with her steady run down the centre of the track, and Dan Muscutt looked to be doing a fairly good job in keeping her balanced. She probably got to the front that day a little sooner than ideal, having hit the front in between the two and the furlong pole Lady Percy quickly pulled a couple of lengths clear of her rivals with ease, with her ears pricking inside the distance looking to idle very much through lack of company, giving me the impression she’s better value for that winning margin, and should have a massive chance in following up over C/D, especially with her young jockey now able to claim his full allowance in today’s race. |