well done rob

W/D, i enjoy your write ups...win or lose.   

WD rob

WD Robs

Having looked for a bit of value for today my attentions were automatically turned to both of the big field handicaps at Cheltenham and Doncaster, and if all 16 stand their ground in each heat there does look fair E.W. value to be had with both Notus De La Tour and Quentin Collonges in their respective contests.

I will start with Notus De La Tour who has been given an assignment not too dissimilar to the one he took in at last seasons festival, with today’s race being a much easier ask than the couple of grade 1’s he took in prior to that Cheltenham run. Having not gotten further than the 3rd in his last start(looked to stumble when landing), I will role back to his penultimate run, which Imo looks  the best piece of form on his c.v., and arguably the contest. However that excellent 3rd behind Flemenstar was best part of a year ago, but that particular race has thrown up some excellent form for completed starts, with Flemenstar producing the best form line out of that race by the proverbial mile. Today is only Notus De La Tour’s 6th start in this sphere, and could be massively well in off his current mark of 134.  Trip, track and ground all look in his favour, and also seems to run well fresh, and shouldn’t be lacking fitness wise hailing from this set up. David Pipe seems to have his yard in decent order presently, and Imo Notus De La Tour has a massive chance on today’s terms to keep the yards form on an upward curve.

Having previewed Quentin Collonges recently for his missed engagement in the Southern National in November, he’s obviously been in the note book waiting to re-surface. Today’s contest is obviously a lot harder than that race, but does look suited to Doncaster as a venue (2/2), and the race should be run to play to his stamina strengths. If the problem of his breathing has been rectified he is another that could still be ahead of his mark, and looks well suited to running fresh on a half decent surface which he’ll get today.

Bet day 356. 1pt E.W. Double Any Given Day 15.20 Lingfield & Lilac Lace 17.20 Wolverhampton....


.......For me today’s racing at Ascot looks a watching brief, with all but one race being either a novice event, maiden or a NH flat race. Saying that I do like the E.W. chances of Pause And Clause in the previously mentioned “one” race, thought the break will have done him good, and the yard look to be in rude health. I have however decided to play at the A.W. venues of Lingfield & Wolverhampton, with today’s value coming in the form of an E.W. double.

The 2 horses in question are Any Given Dream in Lingfields 15.20, and Lilac Lace in Wolverhampton’s 17.20.

Any Given Dream had plenty of running left in him when staying on behind some in-form rivals 9 days ago over C/D, that run being off the back of a 3 month absence. I’m certain the smaller field and potential lack of a gallop is going to be less of a hindrance to him than his rivals, and he’s my idea of the winner. As far as the bet goes if 2 could finish in front of him out of today’s bunch at the weights it would be disappointing.

Lilac Lace’s chance hinges on her ability to take to a poly surface, and if she does handle it she is also nicely weighted/handicapped to be involved. She like a couple of others that run fall into the unexposed/Lto winner’s bracket. I know any weight advantage is more prevalent to 2yrolds in the earlier part of their careers/ season, but for one being so unexposed she looks well treated receiving hefty chunks of weight from her nearest market rivals as it presently stands. Those market rivals could also potentially have chinks in their respective armory, with Hipster having to overcome an absence, potentially needing the race, and is Staffhoss going to receive the type of ride from Joe Fanning that SDS administered Lto (stern encouragement with the whip throughout the last 2 furlongs looking to need further), I for one would question that. Again I’d be amazed if this filly wasn’t capable of hitting the frame, especially as she can travel and pick up well off a decent pace, with the race looking set to unfold in her favour.


during time of writing AGD has contracted to 5-2 with the said firm, but 11-4 still available generally

WD Rob
You been chatting to Violet

Final bet day 357. E.W. lucky 15 ….. 3pts staked.

Having reviewed plenty of races last night and early morning for today’s cards, apart from Picansort I could not commit to anything else conclusively given the opposition in each of the race’s I’ve analyzed. I rarely do multi bet’s these days, however on occasions I do avail myself to such perms, and will have a few points worth in an E.W. capacity today in the form of a Lucky 15.

Selection 1.  Picansort 13.20 Lingfield …..For reasons already mentioned.

Selection 2. Hey Big Spender 14.35 Ascot … Apart from doing me a nice favour in his last run he will love conditions, has a record of 3-4-2-1-4 on seasonal bow with that win being over a stiff 3 miles in heavy ground at Carlisle accounting for Big Fella Thanks, and should go well on these terms with ground and trip a worry with others in the field.

Selection 3.Bakbenscher  13.45 Haydock…. If you want a horse that revels in the mud than look no further than he. Saying that I liked him Lto and bitterly disappointed after seeing some good money for him during the morning exchanges. It’s not unreasonable to think he could well have bounced during that race after his fine seasonal debut off the back of a 609 day absence. Wayne Hutchinson is a very able pilot, and has a nigh on 24% win strike rate from his 135 ride for the yard this year, and is still showing a profit of 17.44 to level stakes. Trip, ground and this galloping track all should point to a big run.

Selection 4. Urban De Sivola 15.10 Ascot…. Just think this horse is too high at a fairly big double figure price, and drops in trip as he returns to handicapping in Britain after looking out of his depth in a Grade 1 over in France recently. The yards last 16 runners have yielded 6places and 4 winners, and significant improvement is usually associated with this type of horse when in their care. As a 4yrold (soon to be 5) he could have any amount still to come, and baring in mind he was a well fancied 14-1 shot for last seasons triumph, going handicapping in ground he’s sure to love off 138 may just see him in a completely different light, and easily accounted for Ranjan last season off levels who is significantly shorter in the betting.

Just to keep things simple for me I’ve bet them with B365 for this bet 9-2 , 7-2, 8-1 & 25-1 respectively.

Result(s) days 350 & 356.

Quinten Collonges       Un Pl -2pts
Notus De La Tour        Un Pl -2pts
Double                  Lost  -1pt


Any Given Day           N/R
Lilac Lace              Won
Double                  Won   +5pts

Profit / Loss                 0pts

Total                        277 3/4pts

Don't know facts, usually do all my number crunching at the end of it all, but do post a summary of these figures.

All the best "rob"

Merry Xmas and a profitable New Year

GGR

Bet day 360. 1pt E.W. Riverside Theatre 15.10 Kempton 6-1 Stan James… 1pt E.W.
Bathwick Brave 15.40 Kempton 14-1 Stan James + 1/2pt E.W. double......

........ In today’s King George every contender looks primed to give its running, with the likes of Long Run trying to re-establish himself as the champion chaser in the staying division, with some trying to firm up their claim to the crown, along with numerous other young pretenders trying to get a foot hold among the top echelons of the staying ranks away from the novice divisions. With everything running looking to be in, or certainly heading towards the prime of their life I’m certain it’s going to be a spectacular treat for any neutral. However on this occasion I won’t be a neutral, instead I’m pinning my colours to the mast in the form of the Henderson second string, Riverside Theatre.

Riverside Theatre gets the nod marginally in this competitive renewal, and it’s debatable if his odds of 6-1 are value where some sort of case can be made for the entire field to have an E.W. shout. Saying that I can’t get off the chances of Barry Geraghty’s mount, and for me just about shades it taking into consideration the way the race should pan out. I’m certain this would have been the main objective for this horse as a starting point, and looks certain to have been saved for this race as his seasonal bow, with his previous record first time out reading 1-1-1-1-1. He also has a fantastic record racing right handed with form reading 1-1-1-3-1-F-1-2-1-1, and isolate that form to Kempton you get 1-1-1-1-2, that 2nd being in this race last season. His last 5 races have all been top flight contests, with a PU and that 2nd  in the King George sandwiching 3 excellent Grade 1 wins.

His form November through to February is usually his best, with figures off 1-1-2-1-1-1-2-1-1 with his only run in December on course being a winning one, with form from March  until the end of season making fairly inferior reading 3-1-4-3-5-F-1-PU. All things being equal I’m happy to have a little E.W. at an 11-2 bet to nothing, especially as his overall profile suggests he’s far from bottomed out improvement wise, with soft ground looking to pose no problems either.

Today’s last race at Kempton, if you were lead by the betting looks to revolve around the David Pipe trained Katkeau, and at first glance he did look unlucky Lto in the big fixed brush hurdle race at Haydock.  That day he appeared to be traveling with purpose prior to blundering 3 out, but Imo Conor O’Farrell’s ride that day possibly gave the impression the horse had more in the locker than there actually was, having turned into the straight he gave the horse a little squeeze and flick down its withers with the whip, and no response to my eye was noted, looking to be a spent force quickly after his blunder.
Having gone through the race I do think Saint Roque to be much more appealing in terms of potential, looking also to be traveling with purpose in his latest start before being brought down, to far out to conclusively say if he’d have fought out the finish that day, the suggestion being he would. His price of 7-2 is short enough considering that what if scenario, and thought at his price of 11-1 Bathwick Brave to be much better value all things considered.

Bathwick Brave has recently looked a horse in a completely different league to that of last season, and looks a horse very much on the improve, with that being of a very rapid nature recently. Having won that handicap in November did so showing improvement for the step up in trip, and looked to appreciate the soft underfoot conditions when accounting for a gambled on Pipe animal. He was given a much more patient ride Nto at Newbury under his penalty, and having been asked to take closer order by Tony McCoy was still tanking along with purpose prior to a fairly soft fall 4 out, in the process of again showing marked improvement. Lto at Aintree was again given a patient ride by AP, and looked to still have plenty on turning into the straight under those tactics. I’d wager Tony McCoy was not expecting Master Of  The Sea to pull out as much as he did on the run for home, but Imo lost no cast in defeat trying to concede lumps of weight to the winner, who looked himself to be on a steep upward curve, both pulling well clear of the remainder.

Today’s mark of 124 looks very workable taking into consideration his rapid progression, and if he were trained by someone like Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls he’d undoubtedly be in the mix for market leader.  Obviously he’s not trained by any of those mentioned, hence his fairly unconsidered odds of 11-1, but Kevin Bishop’s been in the game along time, and when a decent horse comes into his care can get the best out of them, and seems to have fairly rapidly worked out what David Pipe could not regarding how to win with this beast.  The yards recent form is very good, with 6 different runners over the last couple or so weeks producing form figures of 2-1-1-2-1-3 a handsome 34.50p profit to boot for level stakes. I think he has at least a lively outsiders chance of winning, and with nothing to suggest his progression has bottomed out just yet he once again looks capable of stepping up

Bet day 362. 1pt E.W. Baileys Concerto 14.40 Leicester 9-1 Ladbrokes,,,during my putting together of  the write up the price has now gone, but for the purpose of the thread will take 8's which is still available......

.....Having gone through Leicester’s 14.40 at his price of 9-1 Baileys Concerto makes plenty of appeal, and making his handicap debut off 120 could well have been let in lightly.

Baileys Concerto is very lightly raced, and in his 5 starts to date has shown a degree of promise in each contest, particularly in both of his recent novice chases. The first one of those mentioned races was his seasonal debut, and within that race was a couple of reasonably regarded recruits to the chasing sphere in Hildisvini and Well Regarded, both 130+ hurdlers who both had a race fitness edge when finishing 1st & 2nd a few weeks previously in another trappy novice chase. Baileys Concerto was hunting that pair up and running a nice race before unseating 2 out, I got the impression he was staying on sufficiently enough without being asked for the maximum to have taken a hand in the finish. His 2nd Lto behind Simply Wings was also another solid effort when trying to concede 5lbs to that 123 rated animal, having both gone for home a long way out Baileys Concerto was no match for the winners stamina reserves, and when putting in a very tired looking jump at the last looked a spent force on the excruciating run up the Towcester hill.
   
The experience gained from those 2 contest will undoubtedly have put him in good stead for today’s assignment, and it’s interesting connections have opted to keep him right handed at Leicester today having been entered in a handicap at Haydock on Sunday, as well as what looks a shoe in at Fakenham on new years day in maiden company. In both his recent chases his jumping has improved as the race has developed, and after ballooning a couple of early one’s in each contest he did look good taking the obstacles at racing pace. The yard continue to be in decent order, and have had plenty of winners and placed horses throughout December to suggest there is more to come over the immediate coming day’s.

looks like you ve got your double bubble by news years eve and if your lucky might get triple crown.

Final bet for day 363. 1pt E.W. Categorical 14.55 Doncaster 14-1 B365 (4-1+Ch4 offer) + 1/2 pt E.W. double with AGD @ 8-1, write up's later......

gl "rob"

all the best for today and the New Year and thank you for a great thread.

GGR

WD Rob, is there gonna be a part 3?

therobster27,

You seem like a bit of a guesser to me!

Why can't you post detailed analysis, like wot Skinto does!






























Only joking, as you know!

Superb write-ups, second only to Skinto!

Good Luck, always!

Looking forward to your year summary :-

No of selections
No.of Wins
Points staked
Points returned

Points Profit


Thank you