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for the new year (2)
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Result day 292.
Dirleton Lost -2pts Thundering Home Fell -2pts Profit / Loss -4pts Total 255 2/4pts |
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Good luck to-day robster hugely tricky race but looks to have an excellent chance.
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Bet for day 294. 1pt E.W Nadiya De La Vega 11-1(8.30 price guarantee) with B365 + 2pt win Super Ally 6-1 15.15 B365 + ½ pt E.W. double both BOG……
….Having fancied Nadiya De La Vega last night only to miss the price with B365, I have decided to back him this morning with that said firm when they revert their prices back, as it’s a race with a pricewise interest. Just think today could well be the time to catch her, as she seems to have a lot of good form in the book when fresh, and has a form line of 1-1-1 on seasonal debut. The yard in truth have don’t have many peers at Cheltenham, and look to be cranking it up nicely form wise as we head into this part of the season. Ground and trip look ideal for her, and she’s the potential to make up into a nice chaser this season. I also missed the 7-1 available yesterday evening for Super Ally at Kelso, and he’s probably the main reason why Timmy Murphy heads north. Having backed him for his father-in-law through the week, at his price of 6-1 I’m still prepared to have ago at Andrew Parkers gelded son of Flemensfirth, who is 4 form 6 on course to date. I’m not sure what Timmy Murphy’s minimum weight would be, but I would think he won’t have much lead in his cloth in doing 10-01lb on this horse today, and also seems to get on very well with him, having form when riding of 6-1-1-1-1-PU. This outfit had him ready to roll last October, cashing in on numerous occasions off his paltry mark under Murphy, with today’s mark of 110 looking fairly workable despite the opposition. |
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very well done rob
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outstanding......
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great stuff
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very well done indeed
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WD rob
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Result day 293 & 294.
Tiger Reigns Un Pl -4pts Nadiya De La Vega Won 10-1(11's adv) +13 3/4pts Super Ally Un Pl -2pts Double Lost -1pt Profit / Loss +6 3/4pts Total 262 pts |
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Cracking stuff as usual
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Bet day 295. 1pt E.W. Cyrus Sod 14.00 Bath 20-1 B365, BOG write up to follow......
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.......Having looked through the 14.00 at Bath earlier this morning I saw nothing standout value wise with the couple of firms that had priced up, however in the interim B365 have dramatically pushed Cyrus Sod out in the betting, and at his now price of 20-1 Imo think he now represents some decent E.W. value.
He has undoubtedly got his own opinions about the game, and if Dane O’Neill is to succeed on him in today’s contest Imo he will have to get his timing spot on. For his first 3 handicaps Cyrus Sod was sent off a well backed favourite in each of them, and during those contests did actually get to the front at some stage during the closing stages, not looking totally at ease with the idea of being there. His penultimate run was back in June over Epsom’s 10F, and although tactically Jamie Spencer may have had his game plan right, the decent pace I’m sure he was hoping for never materialised, with Sylvestre De Sousa allowed to have an easy lead, practically turning the event into a 3F sprint for home. Cyrus Sod after being readily out paced on the approach to 2 out did manage to stay on to get to the main body of the group, with the first time hood looking to make no difference. He was given a break immediately after that run, and made his return to the track about a couple of weeks ago over 9F at Wolverhampton. That day he was held up just off the pace, and although he met a little interference on the run to the furlong pole he never looked like he had the turn of foot to trouble those in front of him, plugging on very much at the one pace. I’m sure however that run will have brought him on a bundle, and now step’s markedly back up in trip on ground he will love, and if the race is ran as a true test, off his mark of 72 should be plugging on better than most on the run up the hill. |
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Bet day 296. 1pt E.W. Kathleen Frances 16.45 Pontefract 10-1 Whill....
..... Having backed her Lto I'm prepared to stick by her today, with the stiff 10F at today’s venue looking ideal. She also clicks for her ground, and form with the prefix soft in the going reads 1-1-3-2-4-2-5-3, and she acts around this time of the year. The race she contested Lto working out fairly well, with the winner showing he was an absolute handicap blot, and the horses close up running solid races Nto. She looks set to give her running, and has been dropped a further 1lb by the assessor since. |
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Bet for day 300. 1pt E.W. Johnny Mudball 15.15 Doncaster & 1pt E.W. Kiwayu 15.50 Doncaster + 1/2pt E.W. double 20-1 & 12-1 both Ladbrokes. write up to follow.......
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......Having gone through the 15.15 at Doncaster it’s fairly obvious that Ron Harris’s Prodigality has the progressive profile, along with untapped ability to just about be anything within the sprinting ranks in the future. However the races he has taken in thus far in his present campaign don’t exactly shriek well treated group horse in a handicap presently, and it makes me wonder if connections have been slightly disappointed in only his gradual rise to the higher end of the handicap scale during his 7 conteststhis season. His price of 4-1 is possibly based only on potential, and it remains to be seen whether he is capable of defying his latest penalty in a vastly more contested race than previously, failing to win in this grade on his 3 previous attempts(albeit on a couple of occasions narrowly).
The one that I think could run a big race at a reasonable price is the Tom Dascome trained Jonny Mudball, who now reverts back to a more conventional 6F for the first time since running a gallant 5th after missing the kick in the 2010 Ayr Gold Cup off 105. There has been plenty of water under the bridge since then, and looks to have more than his fair share of problems in the interim. He did start the season off with a win in a conditions race, however at the weights had every right to be on the premises in that particular event, but duly showed his current wellbeing. He did replace that good win with a sour effort, but did so the previous season and the bounce factor could well and truly have been factored in to that poor performance, albeit a well contested G3 won by Mayson. His latest 3 runs have not been without promise, and after having another fairly lengthy break from competitive racing ran a reasonable race behind Night Carnation at Bath a few starts back, with the track not really suiting. He then went to Newmarket, and after trying to give weight to all could not quite get up the dip over 7F, none the less looking very much like he was steadily coming to hand. Lto at Redcar contested a half decent listed event over 7f, with the vast majority of the field being a 105+ horse, and tried to give his running on possibly the softest part of the track (middle) the entire distance, getting very tired late on and eased accordingly. His record over 6F in class 2 handicaps is solid enough, and looks to be a horse that can also run towards the end of a season, and looks fairly treated returning to this class and trip off 96. Now onto the Luca Cumani trained Kiwayu, who takes another considerable hike up in distance, which maybe the making of this lightly raced son of Medicean. He was stepped up 5F in trip for his seasonal debut back in July over Kempton’s poly surface, and absolutely annihilated a bunch of only average at best handicappers off his mark of 69, with the assessor taking a very stern view of that performance raising him a full 14lbs. That race as it happens has worked out quite well, and at least showed a few within the contest to be a grade or two higher than class 5. He then ran a fair race Nto at Kempton in an above average affair won by Refractor, and after meeting trouble at the top of the straight which totally knocked any momentum that Kieran Fallon was cranking up, ran on very willingly once again when it was all over. Nto over Beverly 12F never looked happy at any stage on the turn for home, he lugged in behind runners and was carrying his head markedly to one side, a sure indication for my money he was feeling something, possibly hating the ultra fast ground it was that day, and considerately enough handle under the circumstances. • Judging on his breeding he could have his ideal trip and conditions tomorrow, as his sire Medicean is getting a lot of winners on a soft surface, and also seems to get stamina into his progeny. Luca Cumani also trained the dam who was stoutly bred herself by Saddlers Wells, and was started off over middle distances in her racing career, she also looks to have imparted some stamina into his genes. The years are rolled back tomorrow, with the double act of Dettori and Cumani, whose horses could not be in better nick presently, and the former with a major point to prove to the boys in blue. I’d be amazed if Kiwayu could not step up massively on anything he has achieved so far during his career, having looked to have been spared a hard race by Kirsty Milczarek has the potential to be miles ahead of his mark of 80. |
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Results day 295 & 296.
Cyrus Sod Un Pl -2pts Kathleen Francis Un Pl -2pts Profit / Loss -4pts Total 258pts |
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Results day 295 & 296.
Cyrus Sod Un Pl -2pts Kathleen Francis Un Pl -2pts Profit / Loss -4pts Total 258pts |
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WD with the place double Rob
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Bet for day 301. 2pts E.W. Mirza 14.30 Doncaster 20-1 PP BOG 1-2-3-4-5 places, write up to follow......
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......Tomorrow’s cavalry charge at Doncaster looks a mine field for the form students among us, with plenty of lines looking to merge and some what muddy the waters. Usually if my findings do get somewhat convoluted in that respect I don’t usually bet, but the ground and jockey booking for Mirza persuaded me to look again, and in doing so thought her to be very fair value with Paddy Power’s 5 places concession.
There is no doubt in my mind this gelding is a several pound better performer with juice in the ground, with all but 1 of his 5 career wins coming with the prefix soft in the going. He heads to Doncaster tomorrow with his preferred under foot conditions, and Imo looks well suited to a strongly run 5F, with the probability of getting a fast pace a shoe in looking at the field. He has already enjoyed a lucrative season, and although his campaign did start reasonably early, regardless of that fact his last couple of runs indicate to me he's still very much in form. In those 2 run’s he did cop for his perfect going, however at Ascot on his penultimate race when ridden by Johnny Murtagh she seemed to drift away from the main body of runners, ending up solo on the stands rail, and ran a fair race considering trying to concede weight all round in that listed event. A week later he took in a 6F contest in ideal conditions at York that day and travelled powerfully just off the speed, and Daryl Holland looked to have given him every chance at the furlong pole. However no sooner had he looked a threat, he tired fairly dramatically and eased heavily in the closing stages, making his beaten distance rather exaggerated. Tomorrow he drops back to 5F, and once again scores for a very soft surface. He also has the very able assistance of this seasons champion jockey who is seldom booked by the yard, but rarely lets them down. When riding for Rae Guest, Richard Hughes has a lifetime strike rate of 30.77%, and a nice £14 to level stakes profit, and during the last 12 months has only had 4 rides…. 2 wins & 2 placed. Mirza's draw in 2 could have been kinder, but has been given 5lbs of respite by the handicapper for his last few runs, the positives heavily outweigh the negatives and he’ll do for me at her double figured price of 20-1. |
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Result day 300.
Kiwayu Pl 13-2 (12's adv -R4) + 1 1/2pts Jonny Mudball Pl 12-1 (20's adv) + 4pts Double Place bit won -R4 + 9pts Profit / Loss + 14 1/2pts Total 272 1/2pts |
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Final bet(s) day 301. 1pt E.W. Crackentorp 14.00 Doncaster 33-1 PP + 1/2pt E.W. double with Mirza(5places), same firm BOG, write up to follow......
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......Having went through this race last night I’m prepared to give Tim Easterby’s Crackentorp a go, regardless of the huge potential that lies beneath him in this class 2 handicap.
There seems to be an abundance of 3yrolds within the field that could make up into listed / group class horses next season, in particular Marshgate Lane who I did like Lto, only to be fairly disappointed with that performance. However it’s the tried and tested I’m siding with today, and at his massive price of 33-1 I think Crackentorp looks decent E.W. value in a field full of ifs & maybes. He does himself fall into that mentioned category, but there are plenty more things going for him today than in his previous few contests to give hope of a big run. After winning an amateur affair at York back in June on soft ground he had his sites heightened, taking in the Plate, John Smiths Silver Cup (listed), the Ebor and his latest start in the Old Borough Cup at Haydock. Those contest’s where all in excess of his best trip which I believe to be a true run 12F in the mud (being by Generous you can see why), and all of those contests looked more fiercely contested than today’s drop in class (0-100), which he can now slot into after being given some respite from the assessor. His last visit to Doncaster was in last years November Handicap, where from his car park draw had to be settled way off the pace, and when the pace was unfolding on the approach to the 2pole, he was stone dead last of a well strung out field, coming home strongly in the testing conditions to be a never nearer 7th. I’m certain today he will again get a good pace, and is drawn much kinder in stall 10 to get in a decent possy with the bend coming up very quickly after leaving the gates. He ran a screamer of this mark(98) in the plate when finishing runner up to Il De Rey, and I’m certain that was due to the underfoot conditions, and with conditions looking ultra testing today he may be picking his way through stragglers at the business end, especially with the yard still looking very much in form during October. |
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Bet for day 303. 2pts E.W. Feel The Heat 15.40 Redcar 16-1 B365 (4-1+ offer) BOG..
…..Tomorrow’s 15.40 at Redcar although well contested it does look a desperate affair, but Imo only a few look to hold any reasonable chance of winning. I do think Fama Mac is one that holds a chance coming back to turf on his favourable ground, but jockey arrangements have force me to look elsewhere. That elsewhere is the Brian Smart trained Feel The Heat, who has obviously had his problems over the last couple of season’s, but does now look handicapped to make his presence felt in this basement affair, with his double figured price of 16-1 on offer much larger than I had envisaged. This is the lowest mark he has ran off in his life, and now also contests his lowest class of race in his 13 race career thus far, and although his best form appears on decent ground I do think he handles cut, which is exactly what he will get in abundance at Redcar tomorrow. He does seem to handle Redcar well enough, and having won his maiden here back in 2010 confirmed his liking for the C&D last July in G/Soft ground on his only other start at the venue, only finding the well handicapped Pepper Lane too good, and was clear of the remainder off his mark of 71. I’m presuming injury kept him off the track for a year at the end of July last year, and looked in desperate need of his race on his return in this type of contest at Thirsk over an inadequate 5F, never able to get competitive at any stage, but that comeback run not completely devoid of promise. His next race was in extremely soft conditions at Carlisle, and under Mrs C Bartley in that Pro/Am contest looked laboured from the minute he fluffed the start, getting extremely tired in the closing stages after trying very hard to get on terms earlier in the race. His latest start a couple of month ago for the same the same jockey was much more encouraging, and in G/Soft ground at Thirsk showed enough to deduce he may be running himself back into form. If he is straight enough to go from his small break he looks well boxed up on the rail in the conditions, and the Smart yard have been in reasonable heart in October, having plenty running well of late. They also seem to get winners at Redcar, having had 5 winners and a couple placed from their 19 runners this year, with a very lucrative +£76.75 for those 19 contests for level stakes. |
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Hello, kingscroft finally came good at the end of season.
Well worth the wait. I will have look at your selection For tomoro. Goodluck |
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I do think Fama Mac is one that holds a chance coming back to turf on his favourable ground, but jockey arrangements have force me to look elsewhere
Looks as if Nora(Eva) has put you to the (sword) Robster!  Should have kept the faith mate 7/1 last night! |
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Aye Stewarts she'l probably make me look even more of a fool in the penultimate race at Catterick tomorrow, but only time will tell.
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Go eva Go Eva!
 Even i couldn't back her at this price! |
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Result(s) day 301 & 303.
Mirza Un Pl -4pts Crackentorp Un Pl -2pts Double Lost -1pt Feel The Heat Un Pl -4pts Profit / Loss -11pts Total 261 1/2pts |
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Bet day 307. 1pt E.W. Exactement 13.40 Newmarket 14-1 generally (use BOG firms).....
.....Today’s 13.30 at Newmarket is usually not the type of event I’m associated with regarding having a bet, a 2yrold listed event with potential / improvement looking highly likely everywhere you look within the race. However I am prepared today at her price to have a go at a note book horse of mine in Exactement, and could very much be the dark horse within this line up. The reason she went into my note book was because of her debut run, that was in a 5F novice event at Newcastle with all of the runners having previously had winning experience (an unorthodox starting point for the yard). The second reason was the fact they had booked Niall McCullagh for the gig, and the last reason she was punted off the boards like defeat was out of the question, giving a small insight as to how good the yard must rate her. However it was not to be her day, and after appearing to hold every chance on the approach to the business end, greenness and inexperience, and possibly the ground all played there part in foiling that particular punt, looking a sure fire winner in the waiting. That win was not far away, her next race to be precise on a much more sympathetic surface over Kempton’s 6F, fully maximising her previous racecourse experience when accounting for only an ordinary field of maidens, pulling well clear of the field when beating Mundahesh by ½ a length. The race has in fact worked out fairly well, with 3 nto winners and a close 2nd from that race. This filly looks to have an enormous stride, and judging by video footage appears to be a fairly nice specimen with plenty of size about her, with huge potential. The yard also strike me as being very canny when it comes to preserving a horses mark, and the mere fact they head for some black type with her currently assessed mark of 80 Imo have indeed tabled their hand. According to the Racingpost, today they are utilising the stand side course, so her draw in 16 could turn out to be a good one. The soft ground Imo judging on her knee action will also suit her, and will almost certainly be suited to Newmarket’s sterner 6F, and most definitely looks to posses the ability to make her current mark of 80 look laughable. |
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Bet for day 311. 2pts E.W. Hanoverian Baron 14.30 Redcar 9-1 vcbet, write up to follow....
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.......Tomorrow’s 14.30 at Redcar looks a typical end of season event, the contest having a whiff of trainers going to the well that one last time with their respective charges, with more than a few already having a fairly long season behind them. That however is not the case for Hanoverian Baron, after running abysmally in a couple of contests during the spring was given a nice summer break, and looks to have been targeted at an Autumn campaign by his handler, coming into the racea much fresher horse than most.
He appears adaptable as far as ground goes, but is very effective in soft conditions, and having had that break was placed very well with nothing to spare into a Cl4 0-80 affair at Brighton on an easy surface over 12F, and could easily have been called the winner some way out. His next race was the same he disappointed in last season at Doncaster, but this year despite finishing a 5L last he ran very admirably off his revised mark, especially considering the 15F would most definitely have stretched his stamina against some seasoned stayers. Lto at Ascot again took in a class 2 contest, this time over 12F in soft conditions. The easy winner that day ran a reasonable race nto in a G3, and the runner up and 6th both winning handicaps Nto, giving that run a solid enough look, especially as he nosed into 2nd on the run to the 2 pole only to fold, giving way to some fairly unexposed types. Tomorrow he drops down in class as well as distance, with lifetime form on turf over 10F reading 1-1-2-1-2, (2 from 2 in soft ground) with marks ranging from 72 to 91. Tomorrow he gets a little respite from the assessor and can contest this race off 86, and with Tony Newcombe not exactly known for his runners at Redcar, this horse could go well with the yard coming into a little form. |
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therobster27,
Now sadly, (NR) |
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Bet for day 312. 1pt on each George Guru & Terdaad 19.25 Kempton 12-1 & 10-1 respectively with PP, BOG……
……..Tomorrow nights penultimate race at Kempton looks a well put together class 3 contest, with plenty of the candidates having some nice recent form, along with some solid performances on course. Having gone through the race it’s apparent the Noseda animal will be high on everyone’s shortlist, and within reason rightly so. Off his mark of 84 he does not appear overly burdened on handicap debut, considering he was backed as though defeat was out of the question in the Newmarket maiden last July that has thrown up some decent group performers, with the maiden he won over C/D working out well albeit after a long time off the track. I personally will be taking him on at his now cramped odds of a well backed 13-8 fav, and think he still has to prove he has the metal for a race full of tough handicappers that tomorrow will provide, with quite a few of the field looking not to have reached their own ceiling’s yet. I will in fact be double handed, having really liked the chances of George Guru as well as one of the Godolphin runners Terdaad, with the marginal preference for the former. I will start with George Guru, who went from strength to strength during last autumn/winter's campaign on a poly surface, and now looks primed to proceed further up the handicap ladder after showing his first worthwhile form for 6 starts when 4th a couple of months ago behind Shavansky over C/D. He does simply look a poly track specialist, having never been unplaced on the surface in handicaps from his 7 starts, with figures of 1-2-2-1-2-1-4 all those contests coming over a mile. He has been given a nice break by connections, and did look strong in his races at this point last season, and now looks weighted to turn the tables on Shavansky, and also on that running hold Chapter and Verse who is half his current price. Now on to Terdaad, who has also been given a nice long break by his connections, and fresh looks as good a time to be on him as any. He is another that appears much more at home on an artificial surface, and has also yet to be unplaced on a poly surface, albeit a much smaller sample. His form at Kempton is 2-1-2. He has actually won on turf, and it maybe coincidence but it did come off the back off a lengthy absence, evidencing his liking for running well when fresh. He is far from exposed, with tomorrow being only his 8th lifetime start, and within all contest’s to date has went off at single figured odds, 6 of those 7 being some form of favourite. SDS has a nigh on 24% win strike rate for S Bin Suroor, and a staggering +£65.26 to £level stakes, with both having very healthy statistics at this venue in the last 12 months or so. At their respective double figured prices they are approximately 11-2 coupled, and for me does look a fair bet against a 13-8 fav priced up short enough on account of reputation and potential alone. |
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Bet day 315. 1pt E.W. Hanoverian Baron 14.35 Doncaster 33-1 B365.......
………..Having gone through the last few races on the Doncaster card I’ve been able to make sound cases for numerous horses, and normally I would not be having a wager due to those circumstances. However I am going to have a little interest on Hanovarian Baron, who I was sweet on for the contest he was engaged in on Monday at Redcar, only to be withdrawn from that particular contest. I’m not entirely certain that connections sensed they had a chance of getting into today’s race, or whether the withdrawal was due to something entirely different. I’m inclined to believe it was the former of those reasons, and hopefully their gamble of waiting to get in to the race will be rewarded with a good run. As a 7yrold he has not had that much racing during his lengthy career (25 starts), and during this time has had plenty of time on the sidelines through injury. There seems to be no real clear indication of when he’s liable to pop up, as throughout his career has strung pieces of form together as well as replacing very poor performances with a decent one, quite often a win. He did take in this race last season off the back of an absence, and ran a very sound race considering. He was drawn very wide that day, with David Probert having to use the horse more than he’d liked to in trying to establish a handy position very early in the race, knowing the first bend in the contest was only about a furlong after flag fall. He still however held every chance on the approach to the 2pole, but a probable combination of lack of race fitness in the testing conditions, as well as the couple of pattern performers fighting out the finish masquerading as handicapper was a bridge to far on this occasion. Today the going will be just on the soft side of good, and given the race is 12F it could well be in is favour. There is also quite a stark contrast to his starting position 12 months down the line, and although it could well back fire if the main body of the field close in on the rail, I’m fairly sure Dominic Fox will be instructed to have him handy, with the theory being he will not use as much energy in doing so this time around, conserving a little more for the business end..... the practicality could well be a different story though. As stated in my previous write up Tony Newcome’s string are there or thereabouts lately, and Hanoverian Barons preparation for a crack at this year’s renewal looks to be more conventional than his last, and could go well off his light weight being 5lb better off than last year. Having waited for B365 to price match other firms going 33-1, I’m happy take this regardless of other firms going 40’s, due largely to the concession of BOG, 5places and it is also a Channel4 4-1 feature race should it win. |
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Great shout Robster, thought you had it 2fs out, glad you had the 1st 5 concession!
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Thought he was going to have a bigger say in the finish passing the 2 pole than he actually did stewarts rise, but my main hope was a place, and edged my bets so to speak with the 5 places available with B365.
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Bet for day 316. 1pt E.W. Siberian Tiger 15.05 Ffos Lass 25-1 B365 (4-1+ feature race) BOG, write up to follow....
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........Tomorrow’s 15.05 at Ffos Las looks just about the race of the day Imo, with more than a few in the contest having the necessary credentials to play some sort of role in the finish. I will be siding with a one that is still relatively unexposed within the hurdling sphere, that horse being the Evan Williams trained Siberian Tiger, who could be very fairly treated running off a mark of 127.
He made his come back at the back end of September over 19F at Stratford, that was off the back of a lengthy 463 day lay off, and to say he needed the race would be the understatement of the year. It was a performance likened with a horse that had never jumped an obstacle in public, in fact you would have been forgiven if you had of thought it was his hurdling debut, such was the novicey style of his jumping. Paul Moloney was understandably sympathetic riding him that day, and only attempted to keep him on to the bridle under hand riding, not really getting serious with him at any point. Despite at any stage did he ever look likely to be placed on his seasonal debut, he did plug on nicely considering he was a detached last turning down the side of the course, and stayed on obscurely under a hand ride to be a never nearer 5th. Tomorrow he will undoubtedly be a lot sharper for the run, and has had a fair old break for his muscles to tighten and recover. He also goes markedly up in trip from his reappearance which should suit, as should the extra cut in the ground he also gets tomorrow. In his pomp on the flat he was a 100+ rated performer, and eventually after making a slow start to his hurdling career did improve markedly for the experience, peaking at a BHA rating of 135. Prior to his seasonal debut his last 4 contest in this sphere were 3 listed event’s and a class 2 at the festival, with form figures of 4-2-3-B, with his next 3 races being very good ones within novice chases. Adam Wedge takes off an extra very handy 3lbs, and the Evan Williams yard are at least looking like they are coming into some sort of form with a few recent near misses, and at his price of 25-1 could well be up to squeezing in the frame given it’s a relatively home game for his capable trainer. |