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for the new year (2)

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By:
therobster27
When: 15 Oct 12 07:26
I'm not exactley a big gambler in the grand scheme of things racingguru, and also tend to spread my betting around the firms. The only restrictions I've encountered are with VCbet he took my BOG away,and Boyle spots who have limited me to very small stakes(laughably small). I usually empty my accounts after a win, then start a fresh with new money going in etc, maybe the accounte department are seeing a regular influx of cash going in, who knows.... maybe it's only a matter of time before they call time on me, but I've been ok thus far.
By:
racingguru
When: 15 Oct 12 08:22
I've had 15+ sets of accounts with all of them and B365 are the best by far but even then expecting an account to last more than a couple of months is a stretch. Even tried betting some crap to change it up on dogs, american sports, multiples, fcs the lot. Bottom line is they don't want punters who can beat the SP which you need to do to win. SJ closed down a new acc after one bet that came unplaced and that was for measly bet placed at noon. The game is not hard to beat but getting on is so so hard nowadays.
By:
kenco
When: 15 Oct 12 14:53
He bets with 265 if you read carefully.Wink
By:
Facts
When: 15 Oct 12 15:12
therobster27     15 Oct 12 07:26 
I'm not exactley a big gambler in the grand scheme of things racingguru, and also tend to spread my betting around the firms. The only restrictions I've encountered are with VCbet he took my BOG away......,



same here ! I find B365 ok.
By:
chavman
When: 15 Oct 12 15:28
wd robCool
By:
therobster27
When: 15 Oct 12 18:11
Bet for day 290. 2pts win Fama Mac 16.30 Newcastle 7-1 VCbet, write up to follow.....
By:
stewarts rise
When: 15 Oct 12 18:59
therobster27     15 Oct 12 07:26
I'm not exactley a big gambler in the grand scheme of things racingguru, and also tend to spread my betting around the firms. The only restrictions I've encountered are with VCbet he took my BOG away......,

Bit of a blow if you're sh1tt1ng yourself!Laugh
By:
Facts
When: 15 Oct 12 19:01
If your confident the 7/1 will be less at sp - then fine. But as VC has removed BOG from you  - maybe the WH @13/2 BOG  would have been the better bet ? (assuming you have an account )
By:
therobster27
When: 15 Oct 12 19:26
Very funny stewarts, thought that remark had gone undetected Crazy Facts have him as an 11-2 shot at best, and if he's fancied to improve for his last run even that may look big if connections get stuck in.



.........Having quite liked Fama Mac Lto over Catterick’s 5F, I see no reason why he can’t run another massive race tomorrow given the manner of his victory in that last contest. That day he was very smartly away from the gates, and although headed early on showed enough early toe to sit handy for his jockey, really travelling well on the soft under foot conditions. Mr Aaron James riding him that day seemed to get at him on the approach to the 2 furlong pole, and managed to keep him going with a most unorthodox style of knit one, pearl one up to the point where the race was in safe keeping.

That was Fama Mac’s first victory, and in registering that first win landed some tidy bets in the process, a stable Imo that have a relatively good knowledge more often than not of when a decent run is expected. Connections have stepped him up slightly in grade, as well as trip, but obviously must think this is certain to suit as he also holds an entry in a class 6 over 5F at Nottingham on Wednesday. His latest run was off the back of an 80 day absence, and normally comes on a bundle for a run, with the only exception being when he was stepped up to 10F on good ground last May, initially making his seasonal debut over7.

Tomorrow’s heavy ground should also suit, having all of his best form on a very soft surface, and plenty other good runs on an easy surface, and is far from exposed as a sprinter form on easy gorund or worse between 5 & 7F reads 2-3-2-2-2-10-1. Tomorrow he looks also to have Imo a very good draw, as in recent times jockeys have spurned the stands rail in recent season’s, which used to be a golden highway in years gone by in such testing conditions. Julie Burke has only had 7 rides for the yard, but looks to have been a lucky omen having rode 2 winners and a place from those rides, showing a nice £12.38 profit to level stakes, and has done reasonably well at the venue of Newcastle from limited attempts ( 3 from 17 + £13.50 ). All things being equal Fama Mac should even improve for stepping back up to 6, with the horse he beat Lto running a massive race at Musselburgh today, giving the form of that recent win a little boost, and will most definitely benefit from more assured handling that Julie Burke will provide.
By:
therobster27
When: 15 Oct 12 20:25
Extra bet(s) for day 290. 2pts E.W. Significant Move 17.40 Leicester 9-2 W Hill+ 1/2pt E.W. double with Fama Mac @ 11-2
both BOG...

....Not going into war and peace with this one, backed him last time out and looked desperately in need of some extra yardage. Stable have had a couple run well in the interim and as well as stepping significant Move up in distance, they drop him in to a class 5 handicap for the first time in his career. Ground & trip fine, and looks very well handicapped to play a role.
By:
stewarts rise
When: 15 Oct 12 21:09
Fama Mac does look to hold a very good chance again tmr but this race looks harder than last weeks and wonder if Toby Tyler might improve on last weeks run in a quicker race.
By:
therobster27
When: 16 Oct 12 06:48
Result day 289.

Les Verguettes  Won 13-8 (3-1 adv)    +9pts

Profit / Loss                         +9pts

Total                                252pts
By:
therobster27
When: 16 Oct 12 20:20
Bet for day 291. 3pts E.W. Bothy 15.25 Wetherby 7-1 Bet fred BOG, write up to follow....
By:
therobster27
When: 16 Oct 12 21:24
Tomorrow Wetherby put’s on a cracking 8 race card, with some very interesting debutants, as well as some very intriguing novices. It is of course the handicapping sphere I’ve been drawn too, and it’s Bothy who has undoubtedly caught my eye in the hurdle race at 15.25.

During his first season in this sphere he rattled up a quick fire hat trick of novice events, all over tomorrow's 17F, all on soft ground. That earned him a crack at the Fred Winter at Cheltenham during that particular campaign, and although a fairly quietly fancied 10-1 shot, never really fired in amongst a fairly classy renewal of that contest. His shrewd trainer used a couple of flat races the following season to prepare him for the Greatwood Hurdle at Newbury, no doubt to preserve his mark of 127 for that particular race, and after getting in off a feather weight only found the ultra classy Menorah able to out battle him(just).

He took in a bumpers for jumper’s race prior to his battling second in the grade 3 Tote Sport Trophy at Newbury last February, and then ran another screamer at the festival when finishing runner up to another decent performer in Carlito Brigante. He finished his campaign off by running a nice race at Liverpool, looking very much like he needed a break.
He did get that break after that said race, but looks like he encountered some problems in the interim, only taking in 2 races in a 540 day period. One of those races was a spin at Wolverhampton recently, and looked in desperate need of that outing for sure. The assessor meanwhile has given this horse a real break in this sphere, and has quite kindly reduced his mark 5lbs to 135(for his absence I believe), enabling his trainer to slot him into tomorrow’s 0-135 contest very nicely, having again used a flat race to tee up his fitness levels. Bothys record over tomorrow’s trip reads 1-1-1-7-2-2. Stable jockey Danny Cook takes the rid tomorrow, and has ridden him in his 3 biggest races to date, and has been unlucky to have the figures of 2-2-2 for those contests. Imo this horse looks very capable of giving weight in this class of race, providing he’s straight enough, and happy to take 7-1 with the BOG concession.
By:
stewarts rise
When: 16 Oct 12 21:26
Have you looked at the last race at Nottm Robster?
By:
therobster27
When: 16 Oct 12 21:31
Yes Stewarts, thinking about it......Eva Moscrop(7) Cry it's a dilema and a half!!!!
By:
therobster27
When: 16 Oct 12 21:32
^^^^ would have preferd to have seen him over 6F as well.
By:
stewarts rise
When: 16 Oct 12 21:35
Is she as bad as that Amateur lto?
By:
therobster27
When: 16 Oct 12 21:49
No probably not, but in that last contest it was like for like.... she has professionals to outride tomorrow. To be fair it doesn't look like she's been given much to ride with a chance since the summer, but her involvement still tempers my enthusiasm.
By:
TheNorfolkMafia
When: 17 Oct 12 08:31
therobster27,

I always respect your in-depth analysis,

Good Luck, always, to you too!
By:
therobster27
When: 17 Oct 12 08:41
Extra bet day 291. 1pt E.W. Fama Mac 17.20 Nottingham. 8-1 B465 BOG.

Obviously due to run yesterday but Newcastle abandoned, having talked my conscience into giving Nora Moscrop ago I've decided to play him E.W., on the balance of things looks too well handicapped to let him go, despite the riding arrangements... Imo would be a 7-2 / 9-2 shot with De Sousa or a top jock up, but 8-1 seems fair all things considered.
By:
therobster27
When: 17 Oct 12 08:46
Result day 290.

Fama Mac                   N/R      0pts
Significant Move Pl 3-1 (9-2 adv) 

Double  Pl + N/R                   

Profit / Loss                      - 1/4pt approx combined

Total                              251 3/4pts
By:
Sigge
When: 17 Oct 12 12:06
robster: Was actually looking at Bothy myself, but the drift (14s on Betfair)is somewhat off-putting? 4.2 to place is unreal and one wonders if they will save him for bigger races?

Good luck nevertheless, you picks are always a cracking good read.
By:
TheNorfolkMafia
When: 17 Oct 12 13:25
Sigge,

Have horses that drift on Betfair, never won?

If it were me, i would think, what tremendous value, i'll have some of this!
By:
stewarts rise
When: 17 Oct 12 15:31
Very unlucky Robster just touched off, good job you took the Bog though!Grin
By:
Sigge
When: 17 Oct 12 15:32
robster: Unlucky! Good call, again.......
By:
Facts
When: 17 Oct 12 17:03
BOG Hi Dancer @ 6/1. SP 12/1Happy!
By:
therobster27
When: 17 Oct 12 17:08
Yes stewarts, well worth having the BOG on this occasion. Never expected to see 14-1 for him when I watched the replay, and foiled by another massive drifter in Hi Dancer...WD Skinto, couldn't have him today, fair play to you.
By:
therobster27
When: 17 Oct 12 17:28
Just two words why Fama Mac didn't win.....Nora Moscrop Sad
By:
eldar
When: 17 Oct 12 17:28
Wow could hardly have been closer robster.
By:
stewarts rise
When: 17 Oct 12 17:30
What about Eva?Laugh
By:
therobster27
When: 17 Oct 12 17:53
Bet day 292. 2pts Win Dirleton 16.10 Uttoxeter 9-2 B365 BOG, write up to follow....
By:
therobster27
When: 17 Oct 12 19:29
........Tomorrow Dirleton takes up his engagement in the 16.10 at Uttoxeter, and it’s one of those occasions where I’m screaming Gamble,Gamble,Gamble!,in my mind. Having been trained prior to his time off course (presumably through injury) by George Charlton, now finds himself placed with a trainer that can almost do little wrong at present.

The combination of Timmy Murphy / Raymond Anderson-Green (father-in-law) has been reasonably good over the last few season, and it now looks like he’s advised his father in-law to send a horse down to his tenant, Fergal O’Brien. The horse on all known should have no right to play a part in the finish, but connections look like they have him very well handicapped on 82 for his first attempt in this sphere, and stepping up an extra half mile in the mud is almost showing their hand(Imo). The O’Brien outfit continue to been in very good order, and has another interesting runner on the card, along with a one at Wincanton. The way his other runners have been performing on seasonal debut illustrates he’s very capable of getting one ready to run, and certain improvement will no doubt in my mind be forthcoming. I’m also certain Timmy would have been familiarising himself with the gelded son of Flemensfirth at home, and he does look a decent stamp of a horse judging by some video footage.

Dirleton’s future looks to lie over a much longer trip over the bigger obstacles, but I’d be amazed if this was not extremely well handicapped in tomorrow’s race, and everything looks set for a big run against some fairly exposed types, and only carrying 10-08lbs in the very heavy f/cast going could be worth many lengths at the business end.
By:
therobster27
When: 18 Oct 12 06:55
Result day 291.

Bothy    Pl 14-1 (7-1 adv BOG)    + 7 1/2pts
Fama Mac Pl 11-4 (8-1 adv -R4)    + 1/2pt

Profit / Loss                     + 8pts

Total                             259 3/4pts


Just twigged on Stewarts...Eva Laugh .. Probably getting her and Looby mixed up when writing, similar ability!
By:
therobster27
When: 18 Oct 12 07:47
Extra bet day 292. 1pt E.W. Thundering Home 16.50 Wincanton 33-1 B365, write up to follow....
By:
therobster27
When: 18 Oct 12 08:22
Last year Thundering home took 4 races from mid May through to mid July, all for a different handler, looking to be a fairly hot potato for whatever reason. The latest of those handlers George Baker did seem to find the key to him very quickly, and for the 10 races he was handled by George Baker won 3 times and was runner up on another occasion. In May this year Thundering Home found his way into Richard Mitchell’s Dorset yard, and new connections must have feared the worst after his initial 2 runs. However they looked to have figured him out of late, and has been placed in his last 4 handicaps on the level on varying ground between 12-13F.


Today his current connections have decided to run him back over timber for the first time in 18 months, and when last seen in that sphere for his only start for Gary Moore did not run as bad as his finishing position suggested, sitting handy and jumping very well for majority of the contest, just being found out on the turn for home and eased by his jockey when the game was up. The ground for his 3 previous maiden hurdles has been Gd, Gd/soft and Gd/firm, and have all been in the spring / summer. I’m fairly sure today’s going will be the most demanding he will have encountered over hurdles, and his form on soft on the level reads 2-1-3. Lto he showed very much like he was still in form, running on very well up the hill at Bath, a closing never nearer 3rd in that particular contest. He will at least be sharper than many he opposes today, and in a race that in truth won’t take a great deal of winning has made a little appeal to me off his mark of 91, and was more than likely  purchased for this sphere.
By:
stewarts rise
When: 18 Oct 12 18:35
RIP Dirleton, the weight of money fot it was too much to bare!Sad
By:
therobster27
When: 18 Oct 12 19:11
Aye stewarts, poor day at the office what with Thundering Home hardly covering himself in glory when falling before the race had got going properly. Timmy obviously looking after him today, as he did with Queen Mantua a half hour before, it's noted. Another day awaits for those pair
By:
therobster27
When: 19 Oct 12 07:36
Bet day 293. 2pts E.W. Tiger Reigns 16.45 Haydock 6-1 WHill BOG, write up to follow......
By:
therobster27
When: 19 Oct 12 08:15
.......Since today’s racing at Haydock has now officially been given the nod, I’m prepared to have an interest on the Michael Dods trained Tiger Reigns, and I consider his price of 6-1 to be a decent E.W. bet to nothing. Like a few in the field he can handle testing ground, but Imo not only does he act in heavy he appears to relish these type of under foot conditions, and looks like he’s very much coming to hand judging on his performance Lto.

That race was actually over C/D a few weeks ago, and after starting his current  campaign at York off 91 back in July, Lto found himself competing off a mark of 80 showing his first piece of form this season. That race was won by likely market leader Chosen Character, and unless I’ve lost the plot Tiger Reigns looks destined to reverse placing’s with that horse now being 7lb better off at the weights for ¾ of a length. That last race certainly looks like the current best piece of form on offer within the field, and has thrown up some nice lines in the very recent interim, with both Amaze and Lockantanks winning their respective contests Nto, with Leviathan running a sound race at Goodwood.

Tiger Reigns also looks to like Haydock as a venue, having ran here 3 times he’s never been out the frame, winning once and not beaten very far on the other 2 placed occasions, with a true run mile looking to be his optimum trip. It’s not that long ago this horse was bordering on listed/G3 class, and today can race off 82, and on the grand scheme of things looks very fairly treated. Robert Winston has had a decent association with the yard over the years, and can boast a nigh on 20% win strike rate for the yard, with a nice £80.25 profit to level stakes. I actually thought he would be clear favourite today given the circumstances, and the yard continuing to tick along nicely form wise in the month of October.
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