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for the new year (2)
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Bet for day 276. 2pts E.W. Young Mags 16.20 Sedgefield 9-1 VC bet. write up to follow.....
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Tomorrow’s 16.20 at Sedgefield looks a bog standard handicap, with arguably what looks like a handicap good thing in the form of Goldan Jess within the ranks. We also know he seems to appreciate Sedgefield, and goes very well for tomorrow’s jockey. However all of his decent form has came on good quick ground, and tomorrow although the ground is officially described as good / g/soft in places, I’m certain the emphasis will be on the softer side of good, and with the possibilities of showers in the region the ground may ride even softer if those were to materialise.
At her price of 9-1 I’m prepared to take him on with the Fergal O’Brien trained mare Young Mags, with Timmy Murphy making his way up North for his sole mount of the day. The yard could not be in better form, with plenty of horses winning on their first runs back, and the ones that aren’t winning are running supremely well. Form figures for their last 10 runners read’s 4-1-1-5-2-2-2-1-2-3, with Timmy Murphy playing his part within that sequence with a form line of 1-2-2. Ironically the last piece of form in that line was behind Goldan Jess, so maybe the yard has a potential line on what's needed to win. The yard have also tried to safe guard her chance’s class wise, and have slotted her in with nothing to spare in this 0-110 event. You would not see Fergal O’Brien sending horses up to this venue willy nilly, in fact in the last 10 years he has only ever sent 1 runner up which was unplaced, so the fact he sends 2 up tomorrow must catch the eye given the way there running presently. Young Mag’s is also capable of running well from a 100 day + break placing in all of those contests with form figures of 2-3-2, and a more undulating / demanding type of course like Sedgefield could be ideal, with this type of groung looking fine. The biggest danger may derive from Script Writer, who is 3 from 3 over C/D, but having reached a mark of 132 in his prime looks to lack the potential of the selection, still B365 appear to be put their neck on the block at 7-1 as far as his chances go. |
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Cap doffed
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Hooray, well done Robster, lets see you go on a roll now like last Autumn!
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Bet for day 277. 2pts E.W. Moheebb 17.20 Newcastle 16-1 B365 BOG..... write up to follow (Later)
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WD Rob
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The previously Arab owned Moheebb, had been a grand servant for David Chapman & Ruth Carr respectively for the last 5 or so years of his career, but has recently winged his way into the care of Robert Johnson. However there is no doubt Robert Johnson is not about to dramatically improve this horse in any shape or form, but a change of scenery can often rejuvenate these old handicappers that sometimes stagnate a little if in the care of the same old yard year in, year out. And my personal rule of thumb is to catch them within a couple of runs or so for their new handler, and after already having a run under his belt for his new connections at Thirsk last month, they may just know a little more about him tomorrow.
The horses hasn’t won on anything quicker than good ground, and looking at the way he hits the turf you can see exactly why he is by far and away different gravy with plenty of dig in the ground. He always seems to run consistently well on a soft or heavy surface, especially on the more testing / undulating tracks such as Carlisle, Ripon(undulating), Haydock and Newcastle. It is of course the latest track in that sequence where he heads back to tomorrow for his local handler, and his 3 C/D runs thus far in G/S, Heavy and soft have produced form figures of 2-3-1 over the years. He has now slipped to a mark of 67, and although he finished only 6th in his last contest, not a lot really got into that race from the rear of the field. Imo that run was solid enough considering the fact that Robert Winston had accepted the matter of defeat along way out, sparing him a hard race thereafter, with a little winning and placed form materialising from horses around him within that contest nto. The horse once again has the services of Robert Winston tomorrow, who looks to have got his chequered career firmly back on track, and once again is getting interest from the bigger yards. He is also very much in form, having rode 5 winners from his last 10 rides he seems to be a man riding full of confidence at the top of his game, and could well be very nicely placed in stall 2 over tomorrows straight mile, where once again the ground will be very testing indeed. |
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Aye Stewarts, I wouldn't say to a run in like last years thread....I'd take that now
 . Anyway long way to go, and some lovely jumping action to get stuck into over the coming months. |
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WD Rob
 Keep the ball rolling |
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Results day 272, 273 & 276.
Ruacana Un Pl -2pts Fair Trade Un Pl -2pts Oojooba Un Pl -2pts Marshgate Lane Un Pl -2pts Double Lost -2pts Young Mags Won 15-2(9'sadv) +22 1/2pts Profit / Loss +12 1/2pts Total 184 1/4pts |
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Moheebb now into 12/1 midnight - 10/1 365
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When the market adjusts as others price up it may be pushed out slightly, just personally thought 16-1 a little on the big side given his appreciation for the conditions on the course. He has his chance in a wide open affair.
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absolute legend! thank you sir.
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Back in the groove,let's hope it continues,well done for keepin on posting as others probably wouldn't.
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Wd sir!!!
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well done rob you deserve a big finish for sticking with it. credit to you.
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WD Rob again
Upwards |
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Excellent tipping Rob
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wd rob
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Bet for day 278. 1pt E.W. Saint Jerome 14.40 Warwick 7-1 B365 & PP BOG, write up to follow....
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Tomorrows 14.40 at Warwick is not the usual type of handicap I get involved in, as improvement in 2yrolds can often be varied, and on occasions very dramatic. However I can’t help a small bet on Marcus Tregoning’s Saint Jerome, with William Buick an eye catching booking, looking very much like he may be a little better than his current mark of 83.
This horse looked thrown in at the deep end on his first 2 maiden runs, a class2 £13K affair at Ascot, followed by an £11k class 2 at Goodwood. He ran with credit in each of those contests, making nice progress from his debut at Ascot to run a very respectable 3rd at Goodwood. He then (as you would expect) pulverised an ordinary filed of maidens at Salisbury under a hand ride with ground on the easy side, still looking fairly green in the process. His latest 2 runs were in the big sales race’s, and Imo although he ran again with credit in both of those contest’s, Imo both York and Doncaster were far from ideal given the underfoot conditions. Warwick may no necessarily suit him either, but Imo it will pose more of a test in the soft ground than his previous 2 races, which will surely eek out further improvement. He now drops down into a class 4 handicap, and Imo although Salutation meets him on a few ponds better terms for a length, I’m certain won’t find the level of improvement I anticipate Saint Jerome will find at the trip in the conditions. His Sire Jeremy was a very good horse over the interim distance of 7F, and although he was not a genuine G1 performer he tackled a good few, running well in the main and even hitting the bar on one occasion. Sir Jeremy’s progeny stats are all about 6-8F winners, with a heavy influence on soft and heavy ground. Saint Jerome’s dam was only modest, but she also possessed a decent 7/8F pedigree, and tomorrow is exactly the type of race (Imo) Saint Jerome was bred for. He looks to have a decent pitch to jump from, and William Buick has had a reasonable association with the stable thus far, I’m hoping tomorrow it will continue. |
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Ps. Thanks for the morale support guys, It's been a long hard summer as far as stringing winners together goes, but I will finish what I started as per last year, and hopefully have double my bank (hopefully!).
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Well done Rob, still The Master
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Nice one Robster, knew i'd read a write up on Moheeb somewhere!
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Bet Day 280. 1pt E.W. Kathleen Frances 16.15 Redcar 16-1 generally,use BOG firms (18-1 Sporting bet).....
.....Once again on a Saturday there seems to be a grand selection of racing, with handicaps a plenty to accompany the decent listed & group action taking place throughout the country. After scouring the handicaps at the bigger meetings my short list’s seemed to be full, and for that reason I’m will leave those alone. Instead I will be backing a one running at Redcar, who are also staging one of their biggest meetings of the year, with that horse being the Mark Tompkins trained Kathleen Frances. Throughout the country today you are undoubtedly going to need a horse at best with plenty of cut in the ground, with soft ground also being the order of the day at Redcar, and Imo Kathleen Frances gets her optimum conditions, with lifetime form in soft reading 1-3-4-2-2. I’ve always thought her to be a better horse at this time of the season, but last year in her engagements at the back end the ground that she needs did not materialise for those races, but did shed a few pounds off her mark as a consequence. Her mark at present of 77 does not suggest in anyway she is well handicapped, but Imo with the conditions very much in her favour she at least will be able to compete. Today Kathleen Frances has been dropped to 10F, and given that most of her winning form has been up to 11F, and a fairly easy 12, it could be a shrewd move given the way the race may develop. The pace in the race should be half decent, with the likes of Johnny Lester’s Hair and Amazing Blue Sky both renowned for front running tactics, and could well make this a half decent test over the distance. She does posses the ability to travel well just off a decent pace, and this will definitely help her cause given the way the race will pan out. The Sir Henry Cecil runner once again gives the book an advantage to the E.W. punters such as myself, and although that horse could still be just about anything I personally thought last night his price of 7-2 to be only fair, and 9-4 this morning to be crazy given his lengthy absence from the race course, along with being gelded, a couple of worrying facts to make me look else where. At her price of around 16-1 Kathleen Frances could be nice E.W. value in a race that could suit her style of racing. |
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Result day 277 & 278.
Moheebb Won 10-1 (16's adv) + 40pts Saint Jerome Un Pl - 2pts Profit / Loss + 38pts Total 222 1/4pts |
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Bet for day 281. 2pts E.W. What An Oscar 17.00 Uttoxeter 9-1 VC bet, write up to follow.....
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......Tomorrow all eyes will no doubt be focused on Longchamp’s excellent Arc card, but with sadly nothing to rival that action on the flat in England; I’ve turned my attentions to the domestic jumping sphere. One that has caught my eye for a number of reasons is What An Oscar, and tomorrow may be as good a time to get involved as any.
I don’t know about you but I seldom back horses where Barney Curley has a runner, the simple reason being your either playing for a place no matter what the form book says, or you have an also ran in the field. I’m hoping it’s very much the latter, so in theory it has been one less to think about in my calculations, and the same can be said for many others within the line up that will no doubt be needing tomorrows outing. Now onto the reasons why I believe What An Oscar can actually win tomorrow, with the first being the ground. His 3 lifetime wins have all come on ground described as G/Soft, with that ground being very likely at Uttoxeter tomorrow. He also can run well fresh, last season being a decent endorsement of this fact, showing that he was nothing like the last run of his previous campaign, with a replication of that scenario also required tomorrow. When I’m formulating a selection sometimes the form of a trainer can sway me in, and no doubt many (including myself) have been cashing in on the excellent form of the Fergal O’Brien outfit recently. Nigel Twiston-Davies is also Imo a stable to follow when in the groove, and his yard are certainly showing some nice form heading into the Autumn period, having had 5 winners 2 seconds and 2 thirds from his 13 runners so far this month, and both he and his jockey also look to hold half decent win & place credentials at Uttoxeter over the years. Nigel Twiston-Davies is also a man (Imo) that places his horses more often than not to achieve their maximum potential, and after disappointing in a 0-145 handicap at Newbury on his penultimate start, as well as his last outing has been cut some slack by the assessor, with his fairly astute trainer now placing him with nothing to spare into tomorrows 0-120 affair. The most intriguing danger to What An Oscar could turn out to be Kim Bailey’s seasonal debutant Polarbrook, now stepping up a full half mile for his handicap debut. However at their respective prices the selection just shades it for value, and it is he who I will solely rely on in tomorrow’s race. |
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Nice place Rob
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Extra bet day 281. 1/2pt E.W. Ballesteros 12.55 Longchamp 33-1 Ladbrokes 1/4 odds 1-2-3, write up to follow.....
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Trip no problem, loves a mud bath and blatantly stopped last time out. Expect better today. Good luck Robster!!
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.......Having thought my betting was done for today with What An Oscar, I couldn’t resist having a little on Brian Meehan’s Ballesteros, ridden by Eddie Ahern at his double figured price of 33-1, with the British having dominated the race for the last decade or so, and during that domination there have been a couple of bigger priced winners.
Sometimes there is not a lot between a top group horse and a top handicapper in this sphere, simply because there is less margin for error within a 5F sprint race than a conventional middle distance race, you get stopped in your run or boxed in over this distances and the chances of recovery are super slim. I firmly believe that the L’abbaye is almost like a cup final to these sprinters, after a long hard season it boils down to a one off match to lift the cup, and just like football there’s always a chance of a shock result. I’m hoping Ballesteros can cause such an upset, and just like his sire Tomba looks to desperately need a bog to show his best, with heavy going forecast at Longchamp today he certainly gets his ground. As a 2yrold he looked to struggle on fast / good ground, however at the back end of the season when the ground turned soft he really came into his own, rattling off a quick fire hat trick (one on firm admittedly) giving 12lb and a nose beating to the highly progressive Mince on the last win in that treble. Over 5F he has ran once on ground described as soft, and heavy going twice, giving form figures of 1-1-1. He will need to step up massively on anything he has achieved thus far in his career, but his trainer has always thought a lot of him, and he has also been on record saying he is better over 5F in the soft. As a 3yrold at the back end of the season he could still have plenty more to offer, especially now he gets the ground he needs to show his best. |
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Just a small addendum re my comments on Barney Curley and his runner in the 17.00 race.
Giant Sequoia…. His last last 6 contests, including 4 on the flat he’s been beaten 47L, 59L, 36L 121L, 60L and most recently at Kempton stone dead last beaten 37L. Most firms have him a very cautious 14-1 chance, why have Corals put him up at 6-1 tops? Are they in the know, or just taking extreme precautions! |
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I don't think joke oral have any clue rob. This despicable outfit simply taking no chances.
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wd rob thoroughly pleasing stuff. And Bally hit the post in 4th too....
If I hadn't cost myself £100k yesterday I might even raise a smirk    |
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great work Rob, Well done yet again!
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Bet for day 282. 2pts E.W. Significant Move 17.20, 1pt E.W. Mr Spiggot 16.50 + 1/2pt E.W. double 10-1 & 14-1 repectively with Ladbrokes, write up to follow.......
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........Tomorrow’s two divisions of the class4 mile handicap both look fairly wide open, but one in each of those contests have caught my eye at their respective double figured prices. In the first division it is the Joseph Tuite trained Mr Spiggot, and half an hour later in the second division the Stuart Kittow trained Significant Move.
I will start in reverse with my most fancied runner Significant Move, who I did quite fancy for a handicap last June, where his finishing position of 6th could have been much better with the rub of the green. I do however think him to need a bit of juice in the ground, and probably a horse that will benefit nicely from a truly run race. Lto was the first time he’d been dropped to a mile prior to his trio of maidens, and after showing some good tactical speed to sit handy on the fast underfoot conditions, and showed a very willing attitude to run on strongly after looking like he would be swamped by the pursuing pack. The pace should be assured tomorrow, with Halling Dancer likely to take on the mantle of front runner, and potentially Copperwood keeping him honest in that roll, hopefully giving a nice toe into the contest for Significant Move. On his current mark of 70 he’s starting to look nicely handicapped, and with lifetime form figures of 2-3-2-3 over a mile, as well as the ability to handle soft conditions he could be primed to run a big race tomorrow. Now onto Mr Spiggot, who also looks like he’s best with a significant amount of cut in the ground, having lifetime form figures of 1-1-4-3 in very testing conditions. That 3 at the end of the sequence was only in a 4runner affair, but the horses around him have all improved a little immediately after that race. His next contest after that run was his last for handler Mick Channon, and was running over Newmarket’s July course. Despite not looking totally at ease with the ground he wasn’t beaten that far in 7th, and considering the fact he was hampered 2F out, and had a wall off horses running in front of him all the way to the line thereafter, it was probably better than the result indicated. Tomorrow he is coming back from a break of 72 days, and is doing so under new personnel. I’d be fairly confident he’s been kept by Joseph Tuite for an autumn campaign, and because of a little respite from the assessor can take a drop in company, slotting in nicely to this 0-80 race, the lowest class he has contested to date. The last time he won was about this time last season off a mark of 78, and given tomorrow is only his 9th lifetime start you wouldn’t rule out a wee bit of improvement, especially given the underfoot conditions. |
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Result day 280 & 281.
Kathleen Frances Pl 12-1(16's adv) +3pts Ballesteros Un Pl -1pt What An Oscar Won 11-2 (9's adv-R4) +20pts Profit / Loss +22pts Total 244 1/4pts |
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therobster27 unlucky with Mr Spiggot and good luck for the place double ....
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