Just not to be for the placed double Virgin, staying on again but just ran out of time. Can't complain after What An Oscar's debatable holding on.....

Bet for day 283. 1pt E.W. Mohawk Ridge 16.30 Catterick 16-1 WHill BOG... write up will be tomorrow(off out now)

That Fama Mac has cost me some money this year Robster, has been really heavily backed on occasions especially when 5/2 fav at Thirsk and then again when made fav at 5/2 against Bosun Breeze at Ripon. Considering that Bosun Breeze won 3 out of next 4 races going from 68-86 and the 3rd 4th and 6th have won 7 races between them since, not suprised you fancy Fama Mac off virtually the same mark. Definately overpriced at 7/1 tmr and soft ground should suit but jockeys not known to me and horse has had chances since, good luck.

Wollop!

Wd robster....phenomenal stuff again mate!

WD Rob with the Farmer

Be me pardon... Whitby, Jet.

Result day 282 & 283.

Mr Spiggot             Pl      + 1 3/4pts
Significant Move       Un Pl   - 4pts
double                 Lost    - 1pt

Mohawk ridge           Un Pl   - 2pts
Fama Mac  Won 100-30(7's adv)  + 14pts

Profit / Loss                  + 8 3/4pts

Total                           253 pts

........Tomorrow’s 15.40 at Ayr looks to my eye a good opportunity for Toby Tyler to show his true colours, and although he has ran a little in and out all season he is an altogether different proposition with plenty of juice in the ground, which he gets undoubtedly tomorrow.

Tomorrow at Ayr is likely to be very testing,with the ground already described as soft and light showers f/cast in the region, which will suit Toby Tyler down to the ground, pardon the pun. He has lifetime form figures on soft or worse of 1-2-3-4-1-3-PU-7, and for the past 2 seasons on the bounce has came good at this point in the month of October, on soft last season at Newcastle and on G/soft the season before at Leicester.  That Newcastle race was the last time he won, and is now 4lb below that winning mark, and his only other visit to Ayrback in July produced a solid enough 4th off 78, prior to loosing his way on ultra fast ground therafter.

When winning both of those races in October he was doing so off the back of some very poor run’s, and although Lto reads only 6th beaten 3 ½ lengths by that old rouge Dickie Le Davoiur, it was a much better performance than first assumed. For a start the ground would have possibly been quicker than his optimum, secondly the pace in the race looked only ok at best for a 6F contest, and thirdly was kept in for his run on more than one occasion, and for the vast majority of the race did not see a scrap of daylight. As a consequence Micky Fenton spared this horse anywhere near a hard race, but at least showed he was coming very much to hand when running on nicely in the closing stages, possibly going under the radar a little in doing so .

Hopefully tomorrow Beckermet will leave no hiding places, as Toby Tyler will most definitely benefit from a break neck pace, and although there is a couple in the line up showing nice form, and a couple showing signs of coming to hand, I believe Toby Tyler has a serious chance of at least hitting the frame.

Bet for day 287. 1pt E.W. Cry For The Moon 15.40 Newmarket 40-1 Stan James, write up to follow.....

........Tomorrow’s Cesarewitch is as always a mine field of form lines and equations, but trying to make sense of tomorrow's big event would even give Albert Einstein a headache.  That said something has still got to win, and the one I fancy to hold a half decent claim is the Jim Culloty trained Fly To The Moon.

Like many in the field he does look to have been teed up nicely for a crack at this race, and now steps up to 18F for the very first time on the level, which could be exactly what he needs given his patient style of racing. His last 4 runs over 2 miles on the level have produced form figures 2-2-2-2, all in big field handicaps off marks between, being held up way off the pace in all contest’s, coming through and finishing his race off very nicely on each occasion. His latest run which was run over a very inadequate 14F can be easily excused, he was anchored at the rear of the field for the majority of the contest, unable to make up ground on the principles that had set a moderate pace, but at least was closing steadily in the straight without having to have too much of a hard race, with no doubt tomorrow’s assignment very much in mind. The winner that day I Have a Dream (14-1) also lines up tomorrow, but I’d be amazed if Fly To The Moon could not finish in front of him on tomorrows revised terms, and Domination who finished less than a length in front of him has already blown a decent field of handicappers away on these shores in the interim, looking to have also benefited from a true run contest.

Tomorrow the ground will ride on the softer side of good, and this type of ground Imo is what he should excel on. This race also looks set to be run as a true test, which should again suit his hold up style of running, making his wide draw not that much of an inconvenience. The stat’s for jump trainers over the seasons look to have been fairly good for both win & place purposes, and the 40-1 on offer with Stan James looked fairly big all things considered, and I’ve backed him accordingly with the concession of 5 places.


PS, cheers TNOP, it is as you rightly point out 15.35 at Newmarket.

btw rob is it fly to the moon or
cry to the moon

Actually when you put it up Puph I was more confident... Unlucky mate.

PS, Ellis just noticed my rick in the write up regarding Fly/Cry to the moon

.......In today’s last race at York Tres Coronas looks like a sure bet to nothing, and Imo has a much better chance than his shortish single figured price would indicate. Obviously the ground must be fairly testing the way in which trainers have pulled out their intended runners, and although it has played it’s part in reducing bookies liabilities, it has no doubt played a part in making Tres Coronas task that little bit easier.

He is a horse that did me a favour when winning at Newcastle back in April, taking a competative10F class 4 on fairly testing ground, landing some nice bets in the process. He then was stepped up in class for his next assignment at Epsom in heavy ground, not running a bad race considering what Jamie Spencer left him with to do. He is without a shadow of a doubt a much better horse on a very easy surface, especially when running off a mark 84 or less. Form when running up to that mark with soft described in the going over 10F reads 4-1-4-1-1-11-eleven(left in the stalls and never a factor in the race). He now at last returns to 10F on an a very easy surface, with his mark now down to a nice looking 80, with of course Lee McNiff’s very handy 5lb allowance to also off set.

For 2 of his last 3 campaigns he has won on his second start in, and then has not won again until his last start of the campaign(Autumn). I’m not entirely sure if today is his last of his current campaign, but it’s approximately around about this time when they’ve called time for his previous 2 seasons. He showed more than enough Lto over 12F on fast ground to suggest he was coming to the boil, and everything appears to have dropped right for a massive run this afternoon.

therobster27     12 Oct 12 19:14 
Actually when you put it up Puph I was more confident... Unlucky mate.

I will take that as a compliment Rob
Good luck today, glad you like the make up of Tres Coronas as well, everything in its favour today, fingers x

Bet day 288. 2pts E.W. Take It To Th Max 17.25 Goodwood 16-1 PP BOG , write up to follow.....

.........Having been through the lucky last at Goodwood, I can’t help thinking it is a race crammed with horses that appear best suited to 7F, and the vast majority when upped to this distance usually struggle. That also includes a couple towards the head of the market, the well handicapped Leviathan, and the bang in form Duster, who always seems to put up a poor performance off the back of a win. Dolphin Rock at the head of the market looks to be much more at home over a mile, as does Copperwood who also sits within the top 4 of the betting market. However Dolphin Rock is far from ideally placed to front run, and almost certainly will be taken on for that roll by another wide berthed runner Polish World, and possibly last years winner Nazreef, and may all be setting it up for something in behind. Copperwood although fairly consistent over a mile, look’s to have had more runs this season than a greyhound, and has never been able to win off a mark as high as 72 during his 72 flat races to date, and 75 possibly being beyond him today.

Well that’s the theory behind why (Imo) the market leaders can’t win, now onto the small matter off why I think Take It To The Max can.  This horse seemed to go from strength to strength last season towards the back end off his last campaign, and finished off his excellent season by taking a class 1 apprentice handicap at Leopardstown off a mark of 88. The assessor very much appearing to take umbrage with that win, putting him up 9lbs for that excellent performance. As a consequence of his previous season he was given a mark of 97 to start his current one off, which in truth was bordering on a win away from listed contests. As we all know in hindsight he possibly hit the ceiling of his ability during last years campaign, and has in truth struggled to get competitive in his contests this year, with everyone being a class 2 event, bar one class3. He now has been given much needed help by the assessor, and now finds his mark a stone better off than at the start of the season, with Richard Fahey wasting no time at all by dropping him into today’s class4 0-85 contest.

I also think he will be suited by a decent pace over a mile, and although he is capable of front running duties himself, looks to be at home sitting handy off such a pace, and is well berthed in stall 1 for George Baker to make good use of him early. His form over a mile up to this class of contest reads 6-1-2-3-1-1, as well as some other good runs in 10F contests.  The yard look to be in decent order coming towards the back end of the season, and although this horse has not won on the soft, has ran well on an easy surface and looks to have been found a good opportunity to show some form.

Result day 287.

Tres Coronas      Un Pl  -6pts

Flt To The Moon   Un Pl  -2pts

Profit / Loss             8pts

Total                    237pts

Bet for day 289. 3pts win Les Verguettes 15.25 Salisbury 3-1 B265 BOG, write up to follow.....

Result day 288.

Take It To The Max     Pl 8-1(16's adv)  +6pts

Profit / Loss                            +6pts


Total                                   243pts