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for the new year (2)

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By:
therobster27
When: 11 Nov 12 07:24
Results day(s) 307,311,312 & 315.

Exactement          Un Pl               -2pts

George Guru         Lost                -1pt
Terdaad             Lost                -1pt

Hanoverian Baron    N/R                  0pts

Hanoverian Baron "5th 40's"33-1 adv BOG  +9pts

Profit / Loss                           + 5pts

Total                                   266 1/2pts
By:
therobster27
When: 11 Nov 12 10:07
Extra bet(s) day 316. 1pt E.W. Timesishard 13.40 Market Rasen 16-1 Betfred + 1/2pt E.W. double with Siberian Tiger also 16-1 with the same firm, BOG......


........Today’s 13.40 at Market Rasen according to the betting  looks to revolve around just 3 horses,  and at this stage in proceedings it would be anyone’s guess as to which one will go off  jolly. However I am willing to take a chance with the Graeme McPherson trained Timesishard, who makes his debut for the yard after arriving from the Irish pointing sphere, and some of that form is quietly interesting in the context of this event.

This horse was last seen in the spring, when taking in 3 maiden points in Ireland, with the last two of those both producing runner up efforts. The first of those runs was when a staying on second to Benovio over 3 miles,  that horse subsequently being snapped up by Paul Nicholls, and after disappointing initially on debut did put in reasonable shift when 3rd on his latest start behind a couple fair yards sticks back in the summer. Timesishard then only found one too good on his final start when having no chance with impressive winner Oscatara, with that horse also being snapped up by another powerful British yard, and was pitched straight into a reasonable bumper at Aintree by Donald McCain on his last start, and although only 5th a couple in front of him that day had already shown winning form.

It’s nigh on impossible at this stage in their careers as to know which horse will conclusively come out on top today, but Imo barring the 3 principles in the betting he looks the best of the rest that have ran, and with the betting being so tight regarding all three of those principles in the market Timesishard maybe half decent value at his double figured price. The yard are in great heart at present and were able to get a similar type ready yesterday on his seasonal reappearance to land a bit of a touch, a Timesishard could even improve for stepping back in trip given the fact he’d been patiently ridden on each occasion in those 3 mile points.
By:
Valuebetting
When: 11 Nov 12 15:17
fantastic tipping rob well done
By:
sidthesperm
When: 11 Nov 12 15:25
Great places wd.
By:
therobster27
When: 11 Nov 12 17:20
Bet for day 317. 1pt Win Royal Mackintosh 12.50 Carlisle 12-1 Ladbrokes, write up to follow.....
By:
therobster27
When: 11 Nov 12 18:58
........Tomorrow’s opener at Carlisle sees the oldest horse on the card running in the longest race,  that horse being the Alan Mactaggart trained Royal Mackintosh, ridden by a man in Brian Harding that knows him inside out.

Tomorrow at the sprightly age of 11 Royal Mackintosh heads back to Carlisle to take in his 10th race on course, and it is a place he acts rather well around having won there 4 times already, along with a couple of placed efforts for good measure from his 9 runs to date. In fact all of his career win’s to date have been at this venue, all in soft ground or worse, and all in excess of 25F. He is simply a thorough stayer, and there is absolutely no question regarding him needing an ultra soft surface to perform well, along with a stiff track that Carlisle provides.

His last win in a chase was actually over C/D, however you would need to go back to December 2008 when winning that contest off a mark of 106 in heavy ground. He can run well when fresh, particularly on his favoured ground, and was unlucky not to peg back Rolecar on his seasonal bow last December at Kelso, after re-rallying tenaciously towards the closing stages. Tomorrow he runs of a 1lb lower mark than when that fine 2nd. Tomorrow the ground is going to be ultra testing, which is going to be ideal, and if the first time cheek pieces to give him any benefit he could well be giving best when others have cried enough.
By:
madhatters
When: 11 Nov 12 21:10
WD Robster Grin
By:
therobster27
When: 12 Nov 12 06:34
Result day 316.

Timesishard      Pl 20-1 (16's adv BOG)  +3pts
Siberian Tiger   Pl 16-1 (25's adv -R4)  +3pts

Double         Place part won            +9 1/2pts

Profit / Loss                            +15 1/2pts

Total                                    282 pts
By:
Lampus
When: 12 Nov 12 12:58
THANK  YOU
By:
jon b
When: 12 Nov 12 13:01
cheers robster ,, 11s on here last night after reading had a little nibble Happy
By:
never give up
When: 12 Nov 12 13:42
wd
By:
hillwalker
When: 12 Nov 12 18:32
WD robster. Royal Mackintosh did the business today.Grin
By:
roadrunner46
When: 12 Nov 12 19:03
good result, I thought fog patches would win that.
the winner was well in at weights, should of read
your write up, might of convinced me to have a bet.
see your points total is steadly improving, goodluck
By:
therobster27
When: 12 Nov 12 19:09
I know it's a cliche, but it is about the long road..... But I am very pleased it turned around when it did, and hopefully I can continue to pack on the points as the count down to another new year is in it's closing stages.
By:
therobster27
When: 12 Nov 12 19:11
Bet for day 318. 1pt E.W. Global Flyer 15.20 Sedgefield 16-1 generally (use BOG firms), write up to follow....
By:
pedro39
When: 12 Nov 12 19:13
wd robster and good luck with Global Flyer
By:
therobster27
When: 12 Nov 12 20:22
........Tomorrow’s 15.20 is a very intriguing contest, and look’s by miles the best handicap in terms of quality on offer throughout our fair land tomorrow, and with a nice little pot on offer on a cold Tuesday afternoon it’s as you would expect very well contested. I am very much prepared to have a few bob E.W. on Global Flyer, and despite not looking anywhere near well handicapped there are plenty of reason’s (Imo) why he can give a bold showing.

Tomorrow Caroline Bailey steps Global Flyer a full 5F back in trip, and although he has not won over 20F, two of his last 3 chase wins have came over 21F. He did make his seasonal debut just over a couple of weeks ago over an extended 3 miles at Fakenham, and I’m sure connections would have been very satisfied with that run, barring getting bumped by another horse at the last an unseating Andrew Thornton. That day he possessed the necessary toe to sit handy, and looked to travel powerfully for the majority of the journey, plenty were struggling from a long way out, with his tank only really emptying from the home turn. In his hurdling day’s he seemed to run well at stiff tracks such as Hexham and Towcester, and although the uniqueness of Sedgefield are not on par with those courses, it is still very undulating and can be very taxing on runners on the climb for home, especially after having an easy time of it winging down from the home turn.

Class wise Global flyer struggles to match the likes of Buck Mulligan and Carpincho, but although those horses have contested much better events than tomorrows class 3, oddly enough technically Global Flyer has a far superior win and place record in handicap chases than both of them, and although he appears to have it on a bit at the weights, a willing attitude and winning mentality can often sort the wheat out from the chaff no matter how attractively handicapped a horse looks.

Tomorrow ground and trip should be fine for Global Flyer, and I think he will act very well around Sedgefield’s fairly demanding contours, and he is the sole representative for the yard on the card, who has a record of Won 1 Lost 1 Drawn 1 from her 3 runners to date here. Andrew Thornton doesn’t often venture this far North, and that fact alone makes a horse worth a second look, with Global Flyer coincidently being his only booked mount makes it even more interesting to say the least.
By:
Valuebetting
When: 12 Nov 12 21:47
well done again today rob excellent price to boot.
By:
Glengarry Glen Ross
When: 12 Nov 12 22:06
Well done "rob", that long road can be lonely sometimes.

Great thread, great write-ups, all the best for the run up to the end of the year.
Top Tipping!!

GGR
By:
therobster27
When: 13 Nov 12 05:58
Result day 316.

Royal Mackintosh      Won 6-1 (12's adv)  +12pts

Profit / Loss                             +12pts

Total                                     294pts
By:
Lampus
When: 13 Nov 12 06:48
GoodLuck and thanks for yesterdayGrin
By:
gman500
When: 13 Nov 12 10:24
glad t see this is still going strong.... one of the forum good guys...
By:
therobster27
When: 15 Nov 12 06:26
Bet day 320. 1pt E.W. Kahsabelle 13.30 Ludlow 10-1 B365 BOG, .......

......Last time she was in a race of this class (0-95) was back in March 2010, which she won impressively. Her last 3 runs off marks off 94, 94, & 95 have produced form of 1-1-2(bt a head), all around today’s distance. Venetia Williams is in fairly hot form presently, producing 5 places and 7 winners from her last 17 runners. I’m not entirely how effective the jockey will be, but with the race not looking to have very much depth to it Kahsabelle looks certain to have her say, now given she is back to a mark she can get competitive from.
By:
Lampus
When: 15 Nov 12 06:47
All  the   best  robster
By:
therobster27
When: 15 Nov 12 07:25
Result day 318.

Global Flyer       Un Pl     -2pts

Profit / Loss                -2pts

Total                        292pts
By:
never give up
When: 15 Nov 12 15:11
wd on the placeCool
By:
therobster27
When: 15 Nov 12 17:51
Bet for day 321. 2pts Win Aldermoor 14.10 Lingfield 5-1 B365 BOG, write up to follow....
By:
therobster27
When: 15 Nov 12 19:17
......Tomorrow’s 14.10 at Lingfield is by in large the usual for this time of the year, but Aldermoor has a lot less questions to answer than pretty much the entire field, and pro – rata does appear to be much better suited to an artificial poly surface, with the 5-1 available being fairly bigger than I assumed he'd open.

He also appears well suited to Lingfield as an A.W. venue, and from a small sample of 5 runs has yet to be out of the prize money, with form figures of 3-1-1-3-2, those two wins in the sequence being over tomorrow’s 6F. His latest run was on course over 7F, and jumped in the air a little when leaving the gates from his very wide draw, giving Nicky Mackay a very much harder job of getting him handy without using up to much petrol early. I’m fairly certain his jockey would have loved to have had him going around the first turn lying 4th or 5th, but there was no quarter given by his weighing room counter parts, and went round instead a 5 lengths of the pace 9th. That run was his first for 6 weeks and his jockey seemed in no hurry about getting him into the contest, in fact the horses that were in front and flanking him were all under heavy driving on the turn into the straight, with Nick Mackay still sitting fairly motionless before then asking his horse a "little" question at the 2pole. It was however a question he was never likely to answer, but under virtually a hand ride made a gallant effort in finishing a never nearer 2nd.

Although his draw in 8 is far from ideal tomorrow, it is at least workable, and also at the weights looks to hold The Tichborn and Lastkingofscotland who again re-appose. Stuart Williams is also quietly in form, with 3places and 2 winners from his last 9 runners, and Aldermoor does at least look primed to continue his run.
By:
therobster27
When: 16 Nov 12 05:59
Result day 320.

Kahsabelle     Pl 7-1(10's adv)   + 1 1/2pts

Profit / Loss                     + 1 1/2pts

Total                             293 1/2pts
By:
Lampus
When: 16 Nov 12 14:14
THANK YOU


Once  Again
proper jobGrin
By:
never give up
When: 16 Nov 12 14:15
brilliant
By:
JohnyGee
When: 16 Nov 12 15:01
Super stuff again Robster, and thanks for sharing with us all as always Happy
By:
madhatters
When: 16 Nov 12 15:30
WD Rob Grin
Cracked the 300
By:
therobster27
When: 16 Nov 12 17:40
Bet for day 322. 1pt E.W. Poqelin 14.35 Cheltneham 28-1 PP BOG, write up to follow.....
By:
BornToWin
When: 16 Nov 12 18:03
Well done again today rob.
By:
the dealer
When: 16 Nov 12 18:05
very well done again Rob, a quality thread
By:
stewarts rise
When: 16 Nov 12 18:10
Congratulations Robster 300 up!Grin
By:
therobster27
When: 16 Nov 12 18:38
.....Tomorrow’s Paddy Power Gold Cup is as strong a renewal as I can remember, with an excellent mixture of youth and potential, along with massive improvers, as well as the tried and tested. I will be siding with the latter in that trio, and personally think at his price of 28-1 Poquelin is just too big  not to have an E.W. interest regardless of the potential that lies in wait.

He has contested this race for the last few years, which has yielded form figures of 2-5-U, and he did have running left in him when a close up 6th when unseating last year (Imo place at best) running off his mark of 170. He does respond very well to Cheltenham as a venue, particularly since evolving onto the chasing scene a few seasons ago. He has rattled up rather impressive stats of 1-8-1-2-1-2-5-1-4-1-U-2, with the majority of those contest’s being in tomorrow’s class or above, equating to 66% of the time he’s either winning or being placed.

He made his seasonal debut last month in the United House Gold Cup over Ascot’s 3 miles, and over a trip slightly in excess of his best gave Harry Derham a super spin round, fencing very well in the main and as well as not quite getting home he looked like he’d benefit for the run. That was a couple of week’s ago and the assessor has since relieved him of a few pounds, and  now drops to his last winning mark of 163 when winning the Vote A.P. Gold Cup on at the back end of 2010, also claimer ridden off top weight. Tomorrow he reverts back to a more familiar distance that he has a 40% strike rate over, and the ground should also be very much to his liking. The yard appear in cracking form ahead of this meeting, and although Polquelin appears the yards 3rd string the horse won’t know that, and with Harry Derham’s handy 7lb claim has the class to at least squeeze into the frame with his share of luck in running.
By:
therobster27
When: 16 Nov 12 18:44
Cheers Guys for the support,  and although I’ve broken through the 300 barrier(+200pts) for the year so far, it doesn’t seems a million miles away since I was edging back to square 1!!!. Hopefully I will be able to hang on to at least double my bank by the Dec 31st, and once again achieve my goal.
By:
never give up
When: 16 Nov 12 18:47

Nov 16, 2012 -- 6:44PM, therobster27 wrote:


Cheers Guys for the support,

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