.......Having been through plenty of today’s cards the only other that interests me partakes in Ascots 13.40 that horse being Neil King trained mare A Little Swifter.

At her current price of 25-1 I think she may represent a little value in a wide open affair, and from a handicapping perspective has at least been given some respite from the assessor, which in the context of this line up makes her reasonably interesting running off her current mark 118. Her last few runs in handicap company have all been with a degree of promise, the first 2 of which were class 1 listed events, with her recent reappearance being in today’s grade. It is the middle run of those trio of handicaps that impressed me the most, a contest over today’s 22F at Cheltenham in very soft ground. That day Alex Merriam had her nicely settled anchored off the pace for the majority of the journey, and was travelling with menace on the approach to 2 out, and having joined in on possibly the slowest part of the track at the head of affairs could not quite see things out up the hill, quickly loosing 3places in the last 100yds or so.

Lto on her seasonal bow was asked to take a handy position for the 19F contest at Stratford, and although she looked to be easily outpaced as the leaders quickened, she did actually go past a few in the closing stages that had readily passed her on the turn for home, shaping like extra yardage would very much have suited. Today she does get the step up in distance she looked to need, and Imo she does look suited to this trip with a patient ride, and looks to handle very soft ground which will also add to her cause. Ascot is a bit of an unknown track wise, but it is worth noting that from the 9 hurdle races she has contested, going left handed she has unplaced form figures of 4-3-7-5-6, whilst going right handed can boast form of  3-1-3-1, placed or winning in 100% of her contest’s(albeit lesser events than her left handed races). The yard are in the winners during November as well as plenty running well, and with the right sort of ride could be in the thick of things at the business end with a share of luck in running.

Morning GGR, Do like that quote, even though that road at times does seem rather steep!!!

Hope your finding a few, not seen any of your doubling threads for a little while, any on the horizon??

GL today.

.......Well with nothing going on domestically tomorrow I’ve decided to head to the emerald isle for a flutter, and thought In Compliance may run well in the Troytown at Navan.

His current available price of 33-1 look’s a shade on the big side, having been a genuine top class Grade 1 performer in his pomp. I’ve no doubt his best day’s are behind him, and it remains to be seen if he is capable of being competitive off a mark of 130 given his advancing years. I’m prepared to take a chance he has got one last hurrah in him this season, and first time out may be as good a time as any to catch him. During his long and distinguished career he has form figures of  7-1-1-1-3-4-1-4-PU on his reappearance from an absence, and is very capable of acting in heavy ground having ran in it 8 times has won 4 and finished  2nd from those starts. Oddly enough he has yet to win over 3miles, but seems to stay extremely well, this advertised when a fairly close 5th on his last start in the Grand National. The yard have plenty winning form in November, with numerous others running well, and In Compliance could be capable of causing a surprise if tuned up for his seasonal bow.

Just found this thread, excellent work sir. Do your selections get cut by bookies shortly after you post them?

NMR, I'm fairly sure on plenty of occasions they are cut, but probably down to other folk thinking on the same lines as me. I'd be fairly certain that without trawling back through this and my previous year's thread that I beat the industry sp more often than not, maybe as high as 75% of the time. But I usually try and use the BOG firms as a rule, having the best of both worlds so to speak.

Tomorrow’s 13.30 at Newbury looks a fairly competitive affair, with plenty bringing winning form to the table, along with a few that have shaped nicely on their penultimate starts to make them of interest in this race. My attentions have been drawn to neither of the above, but to a one returning from a fair absence, that horse being Regal Approach.

He has been off the track best part of 20 months, and prior to his absence was taking in some novice chase events, with initially that looking to go well before running poor races in his last 2 completed starts. He did take in a hurdle contest whilst trialling the bigger obstacles, and when last seen in the hurdling sphere finished an 11 length 6th of 17 behind Money Order in a class 3 at Sandown over 2 ½ mile. That was off his then mark of 115, and tomorrow can compete a full 13lb lower if you factored Edward Cookson’s allowance into the equation, making him fairly attractively handicapped.

Another thing this horse appears to be able to do is run well fresh, and with breaks of 75day+ in his racing has form figures of  4-2-3-3-4-3-2, being unplaced on only one of those occasions (1st time on a race course), and seems to have a fair record around this time of year. He appears to handle cut, and although there is only 12 runners tomorrow he seems to excel in the hustle and bustle of biggish fields. Ironically his only win to date did come on course in a novice chase, and did run well on one other occasion when finishing a close up 3rd in a 25F hurdle race from only 3 visits to the venue.

If the betting is to believed Regal Approach appears to be Kim Baileys second string, but it’s worth noting that from Timmy Murphy has just over a 7% strike rate from 27 rides, and is - £18.12 to a £ level stake for those mounts, with Edward Cookson having a healthy 17% strike rate and a lucrative profit of %52.83 from his 65 rides for the yard. Kim Bailey looks to have hit a purple patch as far as form goes, and I can see Regal Approach running well tomorrow with the yard more than capable of getting one back after a break.

Top tipping, as always.

All the best
GGR

Having reviewed this race previously was caught out by not acting on the 14-1 quoted by Paddy Power whilst reviewing other races for tomorrow, however although I did avail myself to the 12-1 on offer with B365 shortly after on their 4-1+ offer, it was gone by the time I could get it onto my thread at the said price, but very willing to still put it up at 11-1 which was still on offer with PP, thinking it still to be fair. Anyway onto the reason why I believe at his double figured price that Bakbenscher can at least have his say tomorrow.

Tomorrow although the ground is described as soft, G/soft in places it will be extremely testing without a doubt, with the ability to handle and compete in such underfoot conditions  being a massive positive. Although within tomorrows field plenty can act and run well on such ground they also have had some poor runs, with Bakbenscher having had just 5 runs with the ground described as soft or worse has produced a fairly consistent form line of 1-1-5-1-1. He had been off track just over 20 months when taking in his reappearance in a listed event over 20f at Chepstow  just over a month ago, a race I’m convinced will produce a few nice form lines (none to note of yet though). That day Robert Thornton rode a very patient race, settled nicely at the rear of a fairly well grouped field, and it was only on the turn into the straight did he ask his mount to take closer order. He traveled very nicely into the race up the home straight, picking up places nicely as others had cried enough, with Bakbenscher still swinging away with purpose. However half a mile out he clattered the 4th last, and that was not the only hurdle he had made sill mistakes at, but soon after came under a ride from Thornton and too his credit came back onto the bit before getting a little outpaced in between the run from 3 to 2 out. Without being given an extraordinarily hard race he stayed on nicely to be a never nearer 5th, in doing so matched his other previous attempt in the race prior to a novice chase campaign.

He can contest tomorrow’s race of a mark of 132, which is 12lb lower than his assessed chasing mark, and I’m certain he would have tightened right up for his reappearance having been given best part of 5weeks to recover. Although he is a 9yrold he’s far from exposed, with tomorrow only being his 18th lifetime start, and has won 7 of his 17 starts to date. Tomorrow’s class 3 contest is his easiest assignment in a while, and the step up in trip is sure to be a massive positive, and looks very capable of keeping his 100% Newbury record in tact.

Indeed ticking over nicely... nearly 2 years (published) of steady profits. I think you said you go £20 a point rob?.... you should be charging more to mark the enemy's cards!

Bet day 336. 1pt E.W. Atherstone Hill 13.35 Towcester 10-1 BF & PP BOG……


…….Today at Towcester Robin Dickin gives his 10yrold gelding a pop around hurdles in public for the first time in almost 4 years, and in doing so has been at least dropped into a class he should be very capable of competing in.

The ground at Towcester today is described as soft and without a doubt your going to need stamina, and plenty of it to get home over 3 miles in the conditions. Atherstone Hill has this in abundance within his grade, with the soft ground looking to hold no worries either. Having the ability to act at this fairly unique course is a must, with Atherstone Hill having a fair record on over hurdles / chases, with form figures of 4-PU-1-2-1.  He looks a horse also to catch fresh, and his last 4 runs coming back from an absence of 125+ days reads 4-2-1-2. The lad up today Charlie Poste has only ridden the horse in public twice, producing a 1st & 2nd , and as remarked upon above drops to a class 5 event, and form for his jumps races in this class of contest reads 2-1-1-1.

The yard are in reasonable shape, and Robin Dickin looks to have found a reasonable starting point for his inmate, whom will no doubt be targeted at some staying chases later in his campaign.

Extra bet(s) day 336 1pt E.W. Snapping Turtle 13.45 Newcastle 8-1 generally use BOG, 1pt E.W. On Trend 15.40 Newbury 14-1 Whill BOG + 1/2pt E.W. treble with B365 with Atherton Hill, 8’s 12’s & 8’s. All BOG……


………My second selection today also runs in a fairly unremarkable affair at Newcastle, that horse being the Donald Whillans trained gelding Snapping Turtle.

The yard looks to have taken their time with this horse, and have brought him on steadily in his career to date with no doubt a Chasing career in mind. He is also making his handicap debut today, and in doing so is making it off a very interesting mark given the way he's been campaigned thus far.

In terms of miles on the clock he is by far the least exposed of the line up, and in truth has been fairly well looked after in his 5 lifetime starts to date. He did get his chasing career up and running Lto on his seasonal bow in a class 3 novice at Carlisle, and jumped very well for his first time in public,  to my eye not making too many mistakes. The couple that finished in front of him that day look to be fair prospect’s, and having been outpaced and dropping to the back of the small field turning in, Snapping Turtle stayed on nicely to take 3rd belying his odds of 50-1. He now steps up a full 4 furlongs from that debut, which Imo should definitely suit, and is again being kept to a stiff track which he’s been exclusively campaigned over.

Being by Turtle Island today’s heavy ground should be right up his street, and it would not be the biggest surprise to see a deluge of money for him, given the stable like to set one up now and again, today having very much that whiff.



My final selection today goes in the last event at Newbury, which looks a very nice handicap to conclude the card, and not the easiest to weigh up by any means as a far as a getting out stakes goes. However having been drawn to a one yesterday tea time I talked myself out of a bet then, very much on account of the distance. However having looked at the animal in questions breeding I’m prepared to have a small amount on E.W., but in doing so I’m still taking plenty very much on trust.

The horse in question is the Nick Gifford’s trained gelding On Trend, who looks well suited to further than today’s 17F event, but think he could be very capable of competing over this trip if Andrew Thornton can make it a decent enough test gallop wise. He is another who is very much in the highly unexposed bracket, having won a maiden, chase, and a P to P already from only 7 career starts. He has won all of his contests when fresh, with 2 of those being on his seasonal bow under rules, both in the month of November. The soft ground should also be in his favour having already won and ran well in this going previously, and his sire Jammaal also looking to need testing ground to show his best over 8/10F on the level.

Last time we saw On Trend was just short of a year ago at Taunton in a trappy little novice handicap won by Oldrick, with another useful animal Mr Hudson just preceding him in that particular race. On Trend should have plenty more to come, it remains to be seen if it’s going to come today, but if Andrew Thornton makes plenty use of him early his stamina will definitely come into play given the conditions, and off his current mark could be involved in some capacity.

Result day 335.

Bakbenscher            Un Pl  -4pts

Profit / Loss                 -4pts

Total                         291

Having reviewed the Leicester card it look’s a fairly low key show, with just some very mundane races to decipher. However saying that there are one or two others that when the books price up I may have go at, but do think at 7-1 Plum Pudding still looks reasonably priced for win purposes and have backed him accordingly.

He is still 5lbs above his last 2 winning marks of 107 (one very fortuitous), but seems to have a liking for 3 miles at Leicester, having won twice and placed form just those 3 attempts. He actually stays very well, giving the impression in some of his races he may be suited to races with an extreme test of 28F+. He made his seasonal reappearance at Kempton approximately a month ago, and having been held up handy in the early stages on the first circuit the complexion of the race changed quickly heading out for a the second. Plum Pudding seemed to loose several places as the runners started to thin out with the pace lifting, and  by the time Loch Ba was on the approached to the straight Plum Pudding was a very remote 5th, best part of 40 lengths adrift of the leader looking in a hopeless position. He did plug on gamely to his credit to finish 2nd, and take that facile winner out of the question he would himself have won comfortably. Loch Ba had every right to win as he did that day off 108 looking to be hiding in the region of 20lb from the assessor, and was unlucky not to have won Nto in a class 3 at Ascot off  his revised mark of 122(coming back at the winner as the line came up).

Plum Pudding also handles testing ground which it will definitely be providing the course passes it’s planned 10.30 inspection, and with question marks around plenty of the runners regarding their current marks as well as wellbeing, Plum Pudding ticks more boxes than anything in the field, and will undoubtedly be staying on better than most for David England, who seems to have struck up a good understanding of this old boy .

......In today’s conclusion to the Leicester card the David Pipe animal has been hugely popular, plenty of good judges seem to be putting him up… as well as skinto   (write up to follow cheeky but like it ), and at his prohibited odds now of 2-1 seems like the value has well and truly gone. I was not planning on having a bet due to the fact an E.W. selection could technically be only running for 2 places if the dogs that are barking are right, however I have scrummed and do think Colebrooke could have a decent chance considering the conditions of the race.

It’s worth noting that Colebrooke has been running in races a gulf apart from the one he contests today, with the majority of the opposition nowhere near as classy or having experienced those type of races. His seasonal debut was over 22F at Wetherby in a 0-140 race, and after being ridden fairly patiently made headway to get into a challenging position before turning in, only to look in desperate need of the outing, not given a hard time of things due to this fact. In his latest start over the same course when taking in a 0-135 event he was also dropped in trip, and after being ridden more prominently was still in with a shout just before turning in, again just did not see things out in the closing stages, but still finished a credible 8th when plenty others had given up the ghost. The winner has won since under his penalty, and plenty others in that contest have came out and ran solidly in their next races.

Colebrooke now has his sights set as low as he’s had in a very long time, and with recent help from the assessor can slot nicely into this 0-120 affair. With the drop in class comes a drop to a much more suitable trip (Imo), with all of his winning coming only up to 19F and plenty of decent spins over 17F.  I’m sure this horse retains his ability, but has been running recently over trip’s that have stretched his stamina to the max. He also seems to appreciate soft conditions, and with usual partner Jamie Moore up he could be massive value considering the opposition he now faces.

Result days 336 & 337.

Snapping Turtle          Un Pl -2pts
Atherton Hill            Un Pl -2pts
On Trend                 Un Pl -2pt
Treble                   Lost  -1pt

Plum Pudding              N/R
Colbrooke                 N/R

Profit / Loss                  -7pts

Total                         284pts

bet for day 343 2pts win Golan Way 15.40 Sandown 8-1 WHill BOG, write up to follow....

Final bet day 343. 2pts E.W. Swampfire 14.30 Sandown 10-1 generally (use a B.O.G. firm), write up to follow....

The 14.30 at Sandown looks, as the betting would suggest, to revolve around the vastly improving Ifandbutwhynot, and when winning that decent event at Cheltenham Lto won fairly cozily. Canadian Diamond was also in that race, and he had yet to be asked for his effort when traveling well near the head of affairs prior to turning in before a soft unseating. Swampfire was trying to concede 6 & 7lbs respectively to those vastly improved horses that day, and although he only plugged on at the one pace there plenty of reason’s to believe he will have his revenge today, getting weight from the entire field.

For a start that was only Swampfire second run in the care of Tim Vaughan, having acquired this horse from the Irish scene was immediately rewarded with a win, with his inmate knuckling down well to beat another fair type in a novice event. He also looks like he will be suited to today’s testing ground, with Sandown’s hill also likely to suit his finishing style. He was just shy of a 100 rated beast on the level, and has Imo plenty of improvement left to make in this sphere still being only a 4yrold(albeit for another few weeks). Tim Vaughan has put on his apprentice for today’s race, with Jason Kiely taking off a full 10lbs, and he may not be the most polished as far as style goes, but can give a horse a strong ride which will count for plenty in this afternoons ground. With the lad’s claim he now meets Ifandbutwhynot a full 22lbs better off for 9 lengths, and is also much better off with Canadian Diamond, which is harder to assess on account of him tipping up.

With ground, trip and Imo track looking the ticket today I’m confident he will get competitive off this sort of mark, and he himself should make plenty of natural improvement and looks the one to give likely favourite Ifandbutwhynot most to do, and at more than 3 times the price(now) it’s a no brainer regarding where the value lies.

Tomorrow evenings penultimate race at Kempton looks a decently contested 7F event, with more than a few looking to hold strong claims. Imo Seek The Fair Land could go well, and at his fairly generous price of 25-1 I’m prepared to have a little wager all things considered.

After returning from a fairly lengthy break from his racing he has looked in desperate need of both outings, making no impact whatsoever on his return over Kempton’s 6F at the start of November, with Graham Lee giving this horse an ultra sympathetic ride, not looking likely to get involved at any stage from his poor draw. Nto over Lingfield’s 6F also showing a similar level, looking to come under a hand ride 3 out, with not a great response prior to swinging into the straight giving the wide outside up to no one.

I’m fairly certain tomorrow he will be a lot closer to being match fit and stepping up to 7F will be a huge positive, along with being nicely boxed up in stall 3. Despite him not being involved Lto the race has worked out fairly well, with 3 Nto winners in strong contests, along with another winning within its second run. He does have a little to find with Thunderball on that running, but is 1lb better off for a couple of lengths or so, but although Thunderball has a good record over C/D they’ve been in slightly inferior contest’s (1 a claimer) all off slightly lower marks and claimer(7) ridden to boot, and is well under half of the price of the selection.

Jim Boyle has been more out of form than in over the past year, but the yard have certainly came good heading into the winter season, and do look to have turned a corner form wise, with there last 8 runners within a week or so producing a form line of 4-1-2-2-4-1-2-1, with those being placed not being beaten by far. Seek The Fair Land now drops a couple of lbs below his last poly surface success, and running off 87 should at least enable him to be competitive, with his last 7 appearances running within 2lb either way of tomorrows mark ( 85 - 89) on a poly surface yields all placed form of  3-3-2-2-2-1-1.

Thank you