W.D.Rob..................I could never see Global Flyer.........& wanted to post why (for a chat).
At the end of the day (thats A/T)..............& im not 300 pts up
Im on Poquelin & like the smell of Divers................G.L. M8

Well done Champ

.......Today’s 15.05 at Cheltenham is a super listed handicap, with plenty of the field bringing winning form to the table, and others appearing to have been readied with a decent previous spin under their belts. I do like the look at a one that’s bringing recent winning form to the table, and thought at his now price of 22-1 El Dancer could just about be value in a wide open affair.

Today’s listed contest is a far cry from the class 3 event he won last month on seasonal debut, but saying that he has usually always needed his comeback run, and in winning that race Lto was beating some fairly interesting horses. That contest was at Fakenham and I’d wager he was trading rather short on the exchanges from a very long way out, always handy travelling supremely well under a confident Denis O’Reagan while the entire field were under the pump some way from home. Imo he beat the vastly improving race fit 4yrold Wayward Glance fairly cheekily by a head, with his jockey only having to get serious after the last, and it was far from a kitchen sink ride. Another reliable yard stick in Saingland was a further 6 lengths back in 3rd, with the reasonable second season novice Perpetually also trailing in his wake.

He has risen 6lbs for that win, but in the grand scheme of things off his new mark of 129 should be able to at least compete, especially given prior to his 605 days off course he was rated at 141. For whatever reason last season he only looked a shadow of his former self, but with those poor performances the handicapper did relent and now finds himself despite the recent rise on a very interesting mark. He does seem fairly adaptable as far as the ground’s concerned, but any softening would really fall in his favour, and from his 2 course runs has performed well in a listed event, and won a class 2 despite it being handed to him on a plate.

I’m fairly certain Lucy Wadham has very good stat’s for the latter part of the season in the spring, but presently she has her string in reasonable heart, with plenty being in the mix and also some winning form to boot. She now steps El Dancer up to an unknown distance, but judging on Lto shaped as though he will get 26F, and should also benefit for that run.

Good luck robster,I like the look of Cross Kennon in that one as well as yours

.......Tomorrow’s renewal of the Southern National looks nothing to write home about, however Quinten Collonges may well just posses enough class to defy top weight in this years renewal, in what appears just an ordinary affair.

He was last seen when contesting the Class 1- Grade 3 Scottish National back in April over 4miles 110yds, and was a very well supported 8-1 3rd favourite, and bearing in mind it was highly contested by some super horses, I was a little surprised to see him the same 8-1 shot running against in truth considerably inferior opposition. During the Scottish National his jumping at times was not exactly perfect, missing more than his fair share out during that particular contest. His jumping did in fact lead him to be pulled up, that point being about ¾ of a mile from home,  and despite clattering plenty he was still travelling fairly well having yet to be asked a serious question before Andrew Tinkler pulled him up, with Quinten Collonges walking fairly gingerly when doing so.

Tomorrow he run’s off the same mark, and can usually can put in a decent shift on his seasonal reappearance, and is far from exposed in this sphere only having his 6th chase start tomorrow, with lifetime form figures in chases of 3-2-1-2-PU. Tomorrows 28F should be right up his street, with the ground also looking to be fine. In tomorrow’s contest nothing look’s anywhere near as classy as Quinten Collonges, and Imo should be more than capable of conceding weight all round to this fairly sub standard opposition.

Now onto the chances of Hada Men who runs 20 minutes earlier over at Cheltenham, and made his seasonal debut for his new connections Lto over Chepstow’s 2 ½ miles, with that contest being at least on par with tomorrow’s if not slightly superior. He was in fact trying to make it a hat trick of wins, having previously won his last couple of starts for Brian Ellison, the last of those being the class 2 betfair hurdle final, accounting for a highly competitive field in doing so. His bid for the hat trick never really looked likely, but ran a solid enough race considering he looked in desperate need of it, yet still plugged on gamely under hand riding in the closing stages, jumping the last an extremely tired horse.

That run a few weeks ago should have put him spot on, and as already stated in a previous write up the yard are in rampant form presently, with plenty placing and winning in the month of November already, and I’d like to think Hada Men should be now straight enough to be involved tomorrow.

good thread robster, do you still have an active 365 account?

Extra bet(s) day 323.  1pt E.W. on each Olofi & Dark Lover 10’s & 11’s respectively both Paddy Power 1/4odds 1-2-3-4-5 places. + 2 x 1/2pt E.W. trebles with Hada Men & Quinten Collonges 16’s & 11-2 with the same firm all BOG

Total outlay for today is now 13pts.

Today’s 14.50 at Cheltenham look’s very much a race to sky+ and watch several time, as I’m sure it’s going to throw up any amount of future winners. It was a race however I was not going to have a bet in with the classy Darlan being involved, with him Imo ticking plenty of the stats boxes, with plenty of horses in recent times carrying big weights to win this, and 50% of the last 10 renewals going to 5yrolds, but at 9-4 was out of the questionin betting terms. Due to his defection I will be having a couple of wagers, playing both Olofi and Dark Stranger E.W. with the concession of 5 places that only Paddy Power are giving on the race.

I will start with Olofi who has ran credibly in this contest in the last couple of renewals, and although contests this race of his career high mark is still relatively lightly raced enough to think there should  be improvement still to come. Immediately after finishing 2nd in the race last year he took in a well contested class 2 event in soft at Newbury, and was still swinging away with plenty of running left in him when tipping up 2 out when joining in at the head of affairs. He then headed back to Newbury for a listed event, and ran another super race off his mark of 136, with the 4 in front of him that day all subsequently improving out of all recognition. He then flopped on his final appearance of his campaign over this C/D in March on good ground at the festival, but he also ran under par the previous year at the end of the season. Imo this is his time of year, and with the recent rain gets his ideal underfoot conditions, and his last couple of seasonal reappearances on an easy surface ( one as stated in this race ), have produced form figures of 2-2. The yard are also in decent form with plenty running well and winning in the month of November, and is very capable of his current mark of placing or better.

Now onto Dark Lover, and although Paul Nicholls is triple handed I think this is his best shot at the prize. He is yet to finish outside of a runner up position from his 6 lifetime starts, and judging on his latest run off the back of a very long absence he looks like he has plenty more to offer. That run was over C/D a month ago, and in truth he travelled through the race like he was classes above the opposition, and Ryan Mahon never really had to ask him out of second gear for the entire race, only having to keep him up to his work after the last, looking very much like he was just idling after hitting the front. He  is another of a long list in this race with huge potential, but Imo looks very nicely weighted at the foot of the race, and even the 11lb hike on his mark may not be know where near enough to halt his progression in handicaps.

therobster27     18 Nov 12 06:10 

roadrunner46, I'm not sure how many bet's I've struck this year so far, It's something I don't really take into consideration.


Cannot believe you don't keep a detailed record of all your bets !!
Any punter with aspirations of making it at this game must record all bets.

My 'bookeeping ' :-

Date
Race(time/meeting
Type of race Hcap ( NH Flat AW)
Class of race
Distance
Days since last run
Course winner ?
Penalty ?
Weight
Going
Stake
Price taken ?
result
Return
P/L
Bank
No of bets
No of winners
Total Odds to date
Average odds of winners.

This certainly helps to observe any patterns of betting/results - especially over time. I have 5 years of such records.

Excellent work, robster. Congrats on reaching the 300 marker.

just get more realistic picture when you know how
many bets and points invested its taken to have
achieved your points total, like you said, its all
about the winning, its irrelevant to you.

Yes scooper, Olofi get's my poor day back on track, no pun intended!

Bet for day 325. 2pts E.W. Mission Complete 14.40 Folkestone 10-1 WHill BOG, write up to follow....

Result(s) day 323.

Hada Men          Un Pl            -2pts
Quinten Collonges  N/R              0pts

Double            Lost              -1pt

Olofi           Won 8-1(10's adv)   +12 1/2pts
Dark Lover        Un Pl             -2pts
2 x trebles      Lost               -2pts

Profit / Loss                       +5 1/2pts

Total                               304pts

.......I’m drawn to tomorrow nights 19.00 at Kempton by means of a note book horse, that horse being the Julia Feilden trained No Such Number. I’m not entirely when between May the 31st & September the 10th current connections obtained him, nor do I know the purchase price, but one thing I do know that this gelded son of Kings Best could still be on a very handy mark racing off 74, and still has any amount of natural improvement to come with just 4 lifetime starts under his belt.

He was bred by Kahlid Abdulla’s Juddmonte Farms operation, and was sent to Dermot Weld to under take his racing career. Dermot Weld wasted no time in pitching him into what looked a very stern starting point, a £9K class 1 maiden at the Curragh last May, and after being badly drawn did get himself onto the heels of the main bunch, just looking to plug on in fairly green fashion, with that maiden not exactly turning out to be as classy as it first looked. He was not seen again for another 10 months or so, but did pitch up in a Dundalk maiden where again he looked very inexperienced, only plugging on to be 5th as the 2-1 JF. He was given plenty of time to recover from that run, and after trying to make all Nto at Clonmel over 10F was overhauled by the favourite on the approach to the 2 pole, but once headed seemed to match his nearest market rival stride for stride right to the line, almost as though he just did not want to pass.

His latest run for current connections was off the back of a 102 day break, and it took Richard Hughes no time at all to find the key to winning on him. That day at Bath over 13F was a typical Hughes patient ride, and while everything was having the kitchen sink thrown at them at the 2pole Richard Hughes was sitting practically motionless. He won that race fairly cheekily, but it was fairly noticeable that if Hughes had not have strongly kept him up to his work he was going to hand the race back on a plate to Aleksandar after heading him, showing very much his “quirky” side. He has only been raised 4lbs for the proximity of that success, but in truth it’s hard to gage from a handicap perspective just how much was left in the tank. I firmly believe he had plenty left, and will again naturally improve on what he already had in hand, and appears to appreciate time between his races. He heads back to a poly surface after another break, and having an all singing and dancing USA pedigree like he’s got usually counts for something Imo on this type of surface.

Now onto a one at the other end of the scale in terms of exposure, and in Where’s Susie is one of the most exposed runners in the line up. However she has at least been given some time off from what is usually a hectic schedule, and looked in desperate need of her race when in behind Ice Buster a couple of months ago. Although she is hard to win with she does seem to appreciate Kempton as a venue, and seems to be fairly consistent when running in handicaps at other A.W. tracks, and from 29 starts has won or placed in 50% of those contest’s, with the majority being further than tomorrow’s 12F. She now drops down to her last winning mark of 75, which ironically was over 12F last November. She was also able to win her only other flat start in November the previous season, also a 12F A.W. handicap.

I’m fairly certain at least one or two in tomorrow’s race would have to come up short for her to be involved, but given her overall record on the surface she could have a little say, especially if stamina is called into play if they went a little too hard early doors, and 33-1 with the concession of B.O.G. just too tempting not to have a small interest on her hitting the frame.

Morning therobster27

2 snippets re first paragraph

change of trainer/owners registered 04.09.12 but purchased at July HIT sale for 17k at Newmarket as below..


good luck...


446    No Such Number (GB) B.G. by King's Best (USA) x Return (USA)     17,000
JUL 12      Consignor: Juddmonte Farms — Purchaser: Julia Feilden

Bet for day 329(saturday) 2pts E.W. Barafundle 14.30 Haydock 14-1 PP BOG. write up this evening, along with one other selection for tomorrow.

Having backed Barafundle this morning with Paddy Power at 14-1 I see a certain Hugh Taylor has also picked up on its chances, and put him up looking to get on at reasonable odds, my guess is he wagered in today like plenty of others before Tom Segal had the chance to wipe a decent fraction of value off its price.  Having looked at the race myself last night I also picked up very quickly on the chances of Barafundle(win lose or draw pre race his 14-1 price seemed big), and also had been monitoring those massive placed runners the stable has had lately. It’s pointless putting up a write up that is fairly similar to the summary Hugh Taylor’s has penned in his atr column, and will instead concentrate my efforts on scouring tomorrows racing for some extra value.

I also indicated this morning I would be backing another, this was actually the other Candlish runner at Ascot Fiendish Flame, who I think according to the atr website was still in the 15.20 at the 48hr stage, but has subsequently been scratched from that contest. I have time on my side tonight to have an in depth look at tomorrow’s cards, and will put one up accordingly if I see an opportunity.

......Having been through tomorrow's 12.55 at Haydock there seems to be more than a good few improving types, with the vast majority looking no where near the ceiling of their ability. The Nicholls horse along with the Phillip Hobb’s inmate look very intriguing contestants and should both improve for their seasonal bows, and look very likely to be involved from a handicapping perspective. However I simply can’t get away from the Reveley horse, who also fits nicely into the bracket of those named above.

From a sheer handicap perspective Crowning Jewel could be absolutely thrown in tomorrow racing off 125, especially if we can take his last piece of form literally, that was at Newcastle a month ago and the race has worked out extremely well. It was Crowning Jewels seasonal bow, and bumped into a couple that were very well regarded by their respective stables, especially Nicky Richards whom reading between the lines rates Eduardo a very serious horse. He was beaten that day in a ding dong battle to the line by a race fit Ifbutwhynot, and lost no cast in defeat with the exploits of that particular animal last Saturday, readily winning with plenty in hand a decent handicap off 117 at Cheltenham. Eduard himself returned to Newcastle 3 weeks later and in 3rd gear turned a big field novice event into a procession, in all respects a mere excercise gallop.

Crowning Jewel was of course trying to concede a stone to each of those rivals on his seasonal debut, and trying to do so over a distance that would have been in truth short of his optimum. Another positive to come out of that race at Newcastle was the two in front had pulled sufficiently clear enough so that Crowning Jewel was effectively only playing for third place at best, and James Reveley was able to be very considerate in the closing stages with him, in the process still easily accounting for Time Out in 4th who had been fairly progressive last season over the bigger obstacles. Stepping back up in trip with some dig in the ground should be very much in his favour, and does have a profile that leads you to believe there is plenty more to come this year, and unless I’ve made a mistake with my calculations Crowning Jewel in my mind looks very much the best handicapped in the race.

All  the  best  comrade