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Sams Specials
Sams Specials
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Last bet today is a place only double on two of the previuos selections
This bet is more readily available than it used to be - although the prices don't usally offer much in the way of value you obviously don't have to stake on the win part - which is fine unless they both win. Lady Of Burgundy 5.20 Wolv and Idol Deputy 5.50 Wolv 1 point place only double 15/8 and 6/5 Paddy Also available at slightly lower prices 365 and Lads 7 points staked on the day in total Sam |
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Somehow managed loss of -0.91 points today to advised stakes/prices
A 3rd 20/1,3rd 14/1,2nd 13/2 and a 3rd 11/2 - two of which should probably have won. Lady Of Burgundy stepped up to two miles was given an awful lot to do and is probably better than the bare result. November +29.04 advised stakes/prices +54.62 1 point win level stakes BSP Sam |
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Ok here we go again a bigger bet again for today - there have been three 2 points each-way bets this month - none of them have even managed a place so confidence is not at a high but at the price i have to go 2 points each-way on this one.
This is basically an angle i have used before almost notably with Wilfred Pickles earlier in the year after it won its maiden. That was an maximum 8 points each-way bet for me at 18/1 - finished 2nd nailed on the line then went on to win next time. There are a couple of negatives - time of year - some on the sire and dam sire stats but i'll take the chance at the price. The basic stats for this selection are Colts and Geldings that won their maiden then run in a Handicap at Lingfield A/W next time out are; Runs 399 Wins 104(26.1%)Place 186(48.3%) +£154.78 to £1.00 win at SP If they had previously ran in a handicap before winning their maiden from a lower sample the percentages are roughly the same as are the percentages if they won their maiden on the all weather or at Wolverhampton. Dandy Nicholls horses with this profile from a low sample run at roughly 20% win 45% place. Runs off the same mark as it did before winning it's maiden by 6 lengths and figures high enough up the pace and speed rating too. There are some more stats etc but this post is already long enough. Hopefully this doesn't show how hard it is to pick a loser. Chokidar 3.20 Lingfield 2 points each-way 10/1 VC Sam |
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Agreed Sam
sometimes it is too hard to pick the losers  gl |
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Cheers - 2nd selection is for much the same reasons as the first one.
Ocean Tempest 1.45 Lingfield 2 points win 9/2 Lads 6 points staked on the day in total Sam |
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sam you may want to throw in Tom Queally riding for Dandy 5 from 11 in handicaps since 2009 running again after less than a month off. 2 from 2 on all weather. First ride at Lingfield.
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Cheers mate - had checked that too - if you throw in winning their maiden by more than 5 lengths obviously the sample goes down but runs at about 50%.
Sire and dam sire stats for the course are what probably worry me most. Of course all these stats doesn't mean it's going to win just that there is some value in the price. Sam |
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Chokidar wasn't too far away from winning yesterady.
+1.00 point on the day to advised stakes/prices November +30.04 advised stakes prices +52.62 1 point win level stakes BSP Sam |
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1st selection for the last day of the month
Sondray 6.00 Kempton 0.50 points each-way 33/1 Lads |
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2nd selection
Off The Ground 12.40 Uttoxeter 0.50 points each-way 8/1 Lads |
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3rd selection
Divine Folly 1.50 Hereford 0.25 points each-way 16/1 S James (not BOG) |
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These to finish of today and the month
Bertie Boo 4.00 Kempton 0.25 points each-way 25/1 Hills Masked Dance 6.30 Kempton 0.50 points each-way 14/1 Lads Levitate 6.30 Kempton 0.50 points each-way 16/1 VC Super Duplex 7.00 Kempton 0.25 points each-way 18/1 VC 5.50 points staked on the day in total |
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Sent you a message Sam.
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Pretty poor end to the month
Bertie Boo 25/1 was bet down to 12/1 and finished last. Levitate 3rd 16/1 went off at 9/1 and wasn't far away. Off The Ground 4th 8/1 went off at 4/1 and you can probably work that run out yourself. -3.40 points on the day to advised stakes/prices November +26.64 points advised stakes/prices +45.62 1 point win level stakes BSP Sam |
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Bad end
Good month Sam  |
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A good month Sam well done .... could have been so much better with a little extra luck ....
December might bring some of that  gl |
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Cheers lads - round up for November - my staking on the winners wasn't too good but at least there was a profit again for the month - not too far away from a bit more.
I would be quite happy with 26 points profit every month. I've not double checked this but it should be correct Points staked 132.75 Profit +26.64 ROI 20.06 % November +26.64 points advised stakes/prices +45.62 1 point win level stakes BSP (includes 5% commission deduction) Keep this going for December and as usual back to scrach for the month. Sam |
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Firsy selection for the month
Dickie Le Davoir 7.00 Wolv 0.50 points each-way 16/1 PP Sam |
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2nd selection - biggest bet for me for a while
Berlusca 5.30 Wolverhampton 4 points each-way 7/2 Lads |
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3rd selection
Brunston 2.45 Wincanton 0.75 points each-way 17/2 VC |
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Last one for today
Sharp Shoes 6.30 Wolverhampton 0.25 points each-way 20/1 Boyles 11 points staked on the day Sam |
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Not too far away with Berlusca yesterday - Dickie Le Davoir was already due to race off 3lbs lower before yesterday - probably going to pop up at some stage but i might be over the cliff by then.
December -4.20 advised stakes/prices -4.00 1 point win level stakes BSP Sam |
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A lot of bits and pieces today with nothing really that much overpriced
Swaninstockwell 3.30 Lingfield 0.50 points each-way 14/1 SJ Nicholas Dream 4.00 Wolverhampton 0.50 points each-way 16/1 Hills Knockgraffon Lad 9.00 Dundalk 0.50 points each-way 16/1 Boyles |
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Next group of selections
Miss Astragal 12.40 Lingfield 2/1 VC Tinas Spirit 1.10 Lingfield 4/1 VC Pyrean Music 6.00 Dundalk 7/2 VC Three 0.50 points win singles and 0.25 points e/way treble 2/1.4/1 and 7/2 VC |
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Last three for today
Winning Spark 2.20 Lingfield 8/1 PP Catfromtherock 7.00 Dundalk 9/1 PP Queenie Keen 7.30 Dundalk three 0.50 points win singles and 0.25 points e/way treble 8/1.9/1 and 9/1 PP 7 points staked on the day in total Sam |
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Ding dong Sam
Saved the best till last |
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Cheers - looked like it was going to be one of those days again and in some ways it still was.
9 selections produced - 1st 16/1,1st 4/1,2nd 9/1,2nd 8/1,2nd 2/1,4th 9/2 and 3 unplaced. The place part of the two each-way trebles went down on the last leg - 2nd at 9/1 (matched at 1.03)- 2nd at 8/1 (matched at 1.40). Still a profit on the day and again not far away from a bit more. +6.50 points on the day to advised stakes/prices December +2.30 points davised stakes/prices +10.07 1 point win level satkes BSP Sam |
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Are these run by Owen first Sam?
Doing good btw.gl  |
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Not sure what you mean mate - Who's Owen? - Explain ?
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No need Sam,doing a sound job M8.gl
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First selection for today - was 20/1 with 365 earlier would be no no bigger than 10/1 in my book.
Rock Anthem 9.20 Wolverhampton 2 points each-way 16/1 365 Sam |
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2nd selection
Jack Cool 12.50 Fairyhouse 0.50 points each-way 12/1 Lads |
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3rd selection 2 points e/way in same race as 1st one - a tricky one because there are some negative stats for this one - should be involved off this mark and the visor might do the trick
Sports Casual 9.20 Wolverhampton 2 points each-way 16/1 Lads |
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Two smaller bets to finish off today
Merchent Paddy 2.10 Aintree 0.25 point each-way 25/1 365(place first 4) Ceremonial Jade 7.20 Wolverhampton 0.25 points each-way 20/1 Hills 10 points staked on the day Sam |
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Update yesterdays results later - basically 10 points out 10 points in.
First selection for today More Equity 2.30 Kelso 1 point each-way 25/1 VC + 365 Sam |
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2nd and 3rd selection
Noble Concorde 2.50 Fairyhouse 1 point each-way 16/1 Lads Paddy Pub 2.50 Fairyhouse 0.50 points each-way 25/1 Fred Sam |
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Last three selections
Flaygray 1.30 Kelso 1 point win 4/1 PP Take The breeze 2.00 Kelso 1 point win 11/2 Lads Seedless 3.00 Kelso 1 point win 6/1 Hills Above 3 selections 3 x 0.50 place only doubles and 0.50 place only treble 2.10.1.95 and 2.34 Corals Also availabe at other bookies - different pricaes 10 points staked on the day Sam |
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Update results for last couple of days.
Saturday The two bigger bets didn't get the best of trips but probably wouldn't have won anyway sill a profit of 2 points on the race. Ceremonial Jade 5th 25/1 wasn't too far away from a place at least - inexperienced jockey and ran well enough to suggest still reatains ability and will be worth a look next time depending on price. Saturday level to advised stakes/prices Sunday Bigger priced ones weren't close at all. Seedless 2nd at 15/2 would have saved the day - matched at 1.66 and beaten by a 22/1 shot. The place multiple returned 2.05 points for a 2 point stake - return would have been 11.58 points if Take The Breeze had placed - once again when i think there's a bit of value in one of Nicholls there's not. Sunday -7.95 points advised stakes/prices December -5.65 points advised stakes/prices -0.93 points 1 point win level stakes BSP Sam |
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Bigger bet again for me tomorrow - i put this one up last time when it was a non-runner - renews rivalry on better terms with the 1st and 2nd from that race and is a bigger price initialy for tomorrow - 16/1 looks too big to me.
King Of Windsor 2.00 Lingfield 2 points each-way 16/1 Paddy,14/1 Lads Sam |
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Next two selectiond
Instrumentalist 12.30 Lingfield 1 point win 4/1 Lads Tindaro 12.40 Plumpton 1 point win 5/2 Lads Above 2 selections 1 point each-way double 4/1 and 5/2 Lads |