Cheers - a few of these will probably be bigger to BFSP today again

These are everything for today

Sams Specials

Sikandarabad 7.20 Leop 0.25 points e/way
ALSO 0.25 points win
5/1 Paddy,BFO (rule 4)

Aventus 3.20 Bath 0.25 points e/way
ALSO 0.25 points win
7/1 Hills,Lads,365

Chevallier 2.15 Chest 0.25 points e/way
14/1 Hills,Coral,365

Lexington Abbey 2.35 Donc 0.25 points e/way
16/1 Lads,BFO

Housesofparliament 3.45 Donc 0.25 points e/way
11/1 Hills,Sky,VC

Cant Change It 4.50 Donc 0.25 points e/way
10/1 Hills,Coral,365

Avenante 4.35 Leop 0.25 points e/way
12/1 Hills,Paddy,365

Nelsons Bay 7.00 Muss 0.25 points e/way
12/1 Coral,Lads,365

4.50 points staked on the day

Sam

A couple of disappointing runs yesterday - Housesofparliament 11/1 finished 3rd where basically Colm O'Donoghue came out 3rd of the jockeys involved in the finish - Sikandaarabad went off a lot shorter even given the rule 4 and was very disappointing - anyway a small profit on the day.

Cant Change It 1st 10/1 (10p ded) - Chevallier 3rd 14/1 - Housesofparliament 3rd 11/1

Stakes 4.50
Returns 5.12
+ 0.62 on the day

Overall
Stakes 9.00
Returns 19.12
+10.12
ROI 112.44%

Sam

Busy day - basic run through - still annoyed with myself for not having extra win stake on Lincoln 20/1 yesterday.

Colonel Bossington 4.35 Newb 20/1 - dropped 3lbs with Josephine Gordon taking off another 3lbs - fairly decent run on A/W off a 3 month lay off last time.
Sire has a good A/E on turf better than on A/W and should handle the ground - price dropped fairly quickly on this one so didn't have get all stakes on at 20/1 - Black Type didn't have prices up at the time probably because of non runners.

Shrewd 3.50 Newm 16/1 - might be pushing it slightly with this one although 16/1 looked fair enough to take the chance- Jardines apprentice 7lbs claimer Gormley hasn't ridden a winner yet never mind at Newmarket but he knows the horse and obvioulsy has the 7lbs claim - have to forgive last run but has some figures that would give it every chance here.

Lexington Abbey 2.35 Ayr 16/1 - Los The Pious 2.35 Ayr 28/1 - Lexington Abbey has some figures that would put it in the mix but will have to run to it's best and get the breaks- Smullen booked so hopefully it does - I've put Louis The Pious up the last couple of times is weighted to have very chance IF it came back to it's best.

Absolutely So 3.45 Ayr 16/1 - Jack Dexter 3.45 Ayr 16/1 - Brando 3.45 Ayr 18/1 - wont go into detail but various reasons why all three should have some kind of chance but then again so does over half the field - I had a brief conversation with Jim Goldie after I had put Jack Dexter up as a maximum bet at Ascot last time - I tend to give soft ground horses a chance sometimes at Ascot on firmer ground hence the maximum bet last time - didn't tell me anything I wasn't expecting at the time - ground wasn't soft enough and it was heading for the Ayr Gold Cup - ground may have dried out too much again but Berry is an interesting jockey booking although stable form is a worry.
Absolutely So has some figures that would give it a chance and Hornby is probably still worth his 3lbs claim.
Brando takes a class drop from its last few runs a couple of which were decent - problem is up 9lbs because of them - win at Sandown could probably be upgraded and may be suited byt the way the race pans out if eaves can give it a decent ride.

Wedding Dress 3.00 Catt 20/1 - Dandy Place 3.00 Catt 14/1/16/1 - although some negatives the two of these looked over priced - Wedding Dress beat one of our syndicate horses Kodi Da Capo into 2nd when winning first time out at Wolverhampton returning a decent time in the process - backed that figure up when finishing second to Yalta next time at Pontefract - Ellison's Orewa finished 3rd that day and won a valuable sales race at the Curragh lst Sunday - obvious concern is its last two runs but goes into Nurseries off a mark of 76 4lbs lower than Kodi Da Capo is now rated.

Put Dandy Place up last time when it ran a lot better finishing 3rd around 20/1 - handicapper wasn't too kind with the mark he gave this one but may have more to offer than it showed early on - nearly bought 75% in this one for our syndicate at the start of the year when we were looking for a Dandy Man - up in Class is a concern but LTO figure was a big improvement and a repeat would put it right in the mix with maybe still some improvement to come.

Sam

Well done Sam. I'm glad to see you're still going strong.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YvAYIJSSZY

wd sam ,i remember your 100/1 2nd melbourne cup few years ago.

Thoughts on one of today's

Paddy Power 4.25 Ripon 20/1 - as with most 20/1 shots there will be negatives but all things being equal I would have this one no bigger than 12/1 in my book albeit it's a very competitive race.
Fahey stable thought a lot of this one early so didn't run it early on for handicap mark - suffered because of that given an overly high Handicap mark of 90 after it's first 3 runs although it never actually raced off that mark in a Handicap - after some decent runs eventually won its Maiden at Chelmsford and went into Handicaps off a revised mark of 85 which was still a bit on the high side.
Some decent runs without winning since then - two of it's last five runs have been against a bias - five and a half furlongs if there was such a race would probably be its optimum trip - doesn't quite see it out over 6 furlongs on softer ground and either needs softer ground or a decent pace to have a chance over 5 furlongs.
Dropped to its lowest mark yet of 81 and drops for the first time into an 0-85 Handicap with Hayley Irvine taking off a further 7lbs off i.e 74 taking the jockey claim into account.

Drawn near the middle in stall 10 which will either be a negative or a positive depending on how the track rides and the pace of the race.

The obvious concern here is the jockey - if she gets caught up in traffic I doubt she will over come it or judges her position or the pace of the race wrong it will be a lost cause - basically hoping for a good A to B ride without the problems I've mentioned above.

Hayley Irvine has had 18 rides before today - one winner with another three placed - she won her race over 6 furlongs at Ripon albeit in an Apprentice race and has at least had another couple of rides over the course - she's in against the big boys today which has to be factored into the price - although far from the finished article even in terms of female apprentices she has shown some kind of basic competence from a stable that has/had some decent apprentices in the past.

A mark of "74" would give this one every chance in this race if running to its best - although I may have preferred a different claimer on board 20/1 still looked over priced and hopefully worth risking to higher stakes.

Sam

Bad enough day yesterday even  without Paddy Power not running its race at all - eventually going off at 8/1 - was loaded early and played up in the stalls - who knows whether that made any difference - will probably be dropped again in the weights where it could get into an 0-80 Handicap.

Stakes 10.50
No returns
-10.50 points on the day

Overall
Stakes 27.50
Returns 33.34 CORRECTION
+5.84
ROI +21.24%

Sam

Sams Specials - All 2 points win - advised split stakes between Bookie price and BFSP

Mithqaal 2.00 York
4/1 Fred,Totesport,7/2 Black Type,100/30 365
Great Order 2.35 York
100/30 Sky,11/4 Black Type
Bally Lagan 4.05 Hexham
4/1 Hills,Coral,365
St Michel 4.10 Newm
13/2 Sky,VC,Black Type