From the times the going is Good to Firm.  No soft in it.
Ace Impact and Through Seven Seas. (Through Seven Seas was value at 25 this time last week, but he is short enough now.)
Westover and Feed the Flame could battle it out for 3rd place.

The bank can take it.

The general opinion about Ace Impact is that he's very fast but might not stay. I see it that he's likely to stay but probably won't be fast enough. I was lukewarm about this year's KG immediately after the race. Softish ground, some fancied runners disappointing and won by a 6yo. It was easier for me to think that the first two had merely run close to their past best marks, Hukum down 1lb from his CC win last year, Westover up 1lb from his CC second this year.

However, revisiting the result again some time later I could see that I should've gone with what the most obvious interpretation of the times was telling me, that they'd both improved. I've said in the past that while the Arc is seen as the pinnacle of the flat season, there are often better performances put up midsummer, usually by older colts. The only reason why they don't have a better record in the Arc is they're knackered from earlier exertions. This year there is a good chance they'll do better, as Westover has had a rest and comes here on the back of a peak performance. I don't know for sure if he'll still be capable of that form 64 days later, but I much prefer that than him having a hard race recently.

Hukum has already surprised me by running a best effort at the age of 6, and maybe he can surprise me again by repeating that, but I'm passing on him and backing Westover, who I think has a cracking chance of winning this race, and winning it well.

Well, Ace Impact proved certainly fast enough . I underrated his PDJC win and that was very impressive. Well done winners.

Good result, French horse is very fast, westover ran his race, bad day for me, didn’t have a bet in the race, was going to try and get 1000 on the winner in the shops, not in the mood to go down there, big market clue in that opera singer race, someone was putting up 2k to lay that darnation, knew it was real sign, didn’t react

Brilliant performance.

Well done, winners.

I think the stallion fee for Cracksman has just gone up courtesy of the triumph of Ace Impact in The ARC. He was only £17.5k, what next? Frankel over £100k; Dubawi (?). What was Galileo's?

His fee is bound to go up substantially.  But I don't think he will succeed Frankel as the super sire even after Frankel is gone because Cracksman is from one of Frankel's early crops and people will always prefer Frankel while he is alive and kicking.  It is more likely that, after Frankel retires, the mantle will be passed on to a younger stallion, such as Ace Impact.  People expected Nijinsky to succeed Northern Dancer (possibly whilst Northern Dancer was still standing) but people kept preferring Northern Dancer over Nijinsky.  Sadler's Wells was one of Northern Dancers latter offspring and it was he who became the next leading sire.  If Ace Impact were to become the next super sire it would be skipping a generation and would be breaking the sequence:
Northern Dancer > Saddlers Wells > Galileo > Frankel  (father to son).

Was around 600,000 euros in 2021.

Is there a site where you can see the sectionals for today?

It looked a steady enough pace early on, yet the hold up horses all finished strongly.

Only Westover of the handy horses finished in the top 5.

Have to disagree with you Figgis. That was imo one of the best Arc winning performances we  have seen in a long time. I knew AI was very good based on his French Derby, and I rated him higher than his 125 because of his splits, but I was not expecting what we saw yesterday. I thought that 4.0 on the day was value but not huge value as there were plenty of good horses representing solid form, but in no way could I have known that he might have been exceptional value because he won like an odds on shot., otherwise I would have double my bet at least.

The RP have given him an RPR of 129 and a TS rating of 121. His final 2 furlongs were  22 secs and on those splits I have no doubt that he is worth a 140+ rating . The intervals between the front finishers do not reflect his superiority so if anyone proposes that he cant be that rating because that would mean those behind deserve higher, I would just reply that a one dimensional collateral comparison is not accurate enough.

That was a wow performance.

Opposition looked like they were on quicksand in the French Derby.
Looked a top animal then and proved it.

Ratings would seem on the high side to my eyes.

There are plenty of races that are obviously slowly run. In such cases we can be almost certain that beaten runners could've run faster given a faster pace. It was obvious with Nashwa in the Nassau, and I think the point was proved afterwards. This year's Arc was nothing like that.

In a well run race the idea that because a horse finishes faster than average it could run a faster overall time given a faster pace, or could've beaten the same horses further if asked for an effort earlier, or ridden closer, is a theoretical one. True for some horses, but proved to be not true for others. It's okay for a private handicapper to rate a horse much higher if that's what they believe. However, if Timeform or the others gave Ace impact a 140 on that performance the whole thing would be a nonsense.

Sandown, regardless of sectionals or times, I think most people are more impressed with a horse that finishes fast to win by a length and a half, than one that kicks on into the lead at the 2f pole and holds on to win by the same distance. The former is certainly more exciting to watch. There's an impression that the victory was gained more easily. There's also an assumption that the winning margin would've increased the further they went, "Won going away".

Anyway, the more I've followed racing the more I have come to believe that there really isn't a lot between the very best middle distance 3yos and what I'd call a typical, decent Gp1 winning level, just a few pounds at the most. The ones that look extremely impressive are usually a result of the opposition falling apart. I just think we didn't see a proper Gp1 performance from any of the older horses in opposition on Sunday, but Ace Impact may well have won anyway, in receipt of the 6lbs allowance.

a projected rating is solid and proven conjecture backed up by years of observation - and maths!

Sandown, you say that, but I have seen very little evidence of it from anywhere in the public domain. All the sectional fans were saying Savethelastdance was going to be an above average Oaks winner, she was nothing of the kind. Now, we all get it wrong, as I just did with Westover, so I wouldn't condemn a method for not hitting the nail on the head every time, but, without a solid final time to back it up, very few of these projections come true.

Figgis.

The more solid the final time, the more reliable the ratings whether time, collateral or sectional.

I agree that there is nothing of much use regarding sectional projections in the public domain. There will be others who have developed a method but like me there is no advantage , in fact the opposite, in divulging anything to a wider public. Plaudits I do not need.

Just because a horse has run a good sectional once is no guarantee that it can repeat that, just as with fast final times. That's only to be expected. Not machines and all that.

Westover reversed placings with Hukum which was not unexpected given the faster ground and being a younger horse, and I thought Westover ran to his best rating(KG). Hukum was also disadvantaged by his draw.

I expected westover to run well and definitely place in the arc over hukum, it was said the king George was one of the best middle distance race run in Europe this year, on the morning line they mentioned the running style of westover in a negative light, usually have to be a fast horse to win that race, that is why I assumed westover ran the best race he could in finishing 2nd