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No betting on any ARC Trials at all. Bookies sleeping? Pathetic!
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Got prices up according to Oddschecker.
3 Mkt Leaders Foy - Iresine 4/5 Vermeile - Warm Heart 7/4 Niel - Feed The Flame 4/7 |
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All the bookies I'm looking at have prices up for the trials tomorrow
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Blue Rose Cen against Warm Heart; 5/2 an enterprising price (if she stays).
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Thanks guys.
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Trials day tomorrow. Blue rose den 2/1. Seems quite civil to me. Umm
Feed the flame 8/13 am really hoping this gets it done tomorrow for the book on the day Iresine quite short in what looks a tactical affair on paper to me |
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kyprios back today - not entered in the are at the moment but ballydoyle don't seem to have any other prospects for the race
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No ARC for Blue Rose Cen. She travelled well, but a spent force 2f out. Maybe Champions or QE2 Stake at Ascot.
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Warm Heart must have a big chance to continue the fillies and mares success in the Arc.
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Yes Sage. She must be on the short list now. Bit she looks a filly who needs the better ground. Not an antepost bet.
Well done to Foyles. Your filly must be much shorter than the 66/1 you got |
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cheers brandy ,shes 33s best now and tbh i have continued to to back her at 40s and 33s as i have her a fair bit shorter , plenty of others with stronger looking form on paper but i think there could be plenty more to come from her especially with the step up in trip and a lot depends on the ground on the day but hopefully it will soften up . auguste rodin heading for the breeders cup according to connections ,warm heart better on good hukum not sure he would want it too soft and question marks on ace impact regarding the trip (may well relish it but untried at 12f ) fantastic moon also wont want it very soft . i may be bias and looking through rose tinted but when watching reruns of her wins to me this filly just seems to do enough to get the job done .she pulls out more when anything comes to her which is a type i like as she could have much more in the tank .
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I thought Feed The Flame ran a perfectly good trial on Sunday
and pleased to see he has been pushed out to 12/1 for this. Any rain that falls before the big day will be in his favour. My pick at the prices currently. |
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The subsequent defeats of Big Rock post French Derby has knocked the form of Ace Impact (French Derby) somewhat. His trainer Rouget won with Sottsass 3 yrs ago denying Enable a 3rd ARC triumph. However, his 2 other exploits Avenir Curtain (11th) and Brametot (5th) both flattered to deceive despite winning the French Oaks and Derby respectively.
History repeating itself or will we see a sensational ARC winner 2023? Feed The Flame was never placed in the Prix Niel to win; Hukum beat Westover and Desert Crown - is that form good enough? |
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In 1997 Peintre Celebre got beaten in the Prix Neil when a short-price favourite. As with FTF, bookmakers pushed him out for the Arc. Fabre said at the time-"its just a trial." PC went on to be one of the best Arc winners. Will FTF do the same? I don't know, but I won't judge on that one race.
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A big difference between Peintre Celebre's trial and Sunday's race was there was no pace on for PC, he didn't get the best of runs and undoubtedly would've won anyway in a few more strides. Feed The Flame was never going even close to winning on Sunday. Added to that, Feed The Flame's 1 length hard fought win over Adelaide River pales in comparison with PC's easy Gp1 wins.
On the clock FTF is about 10lbs short of winning even an average Arc. It's fair to say he didn't quite run to his best on Sunday, however, I think the performance Fantastic Moon put up to beat him was slightly better than anything FTF had done previously. |
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Which will win if Ace Impact and Feed The Flame contest the last two furlongs on good to soft or softer going? Feed The Flame (he'd done the distance) or Ace Impact (who quickened past Big Rock) as if he was stationary.
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I also think Feed The Flame was ring rusty, and not fully tuned-up.
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10Sep23 Longchamp (12Gd, RPR 116)
Feed The Flame accelerated well but in the last 100 metres he looked tired and blew very hard afterwards, while I think the winner is a good horse. He was in among horses for once and I think it will serve as a good preparation, though of course it's always better to win than be second. Softer ground would be a big help in three weeks' time - Pacal Bary, trainer. 14Jul23 Longchamp (12GS, RPR 121) We didn't have any choice in the [Prix de] Jockey Club, we had to use Feed The Flame up from his draw but at a mile and a half he was able to really accelerate. He'll be even better on autumn ground and if he stays in the same form, he'll have a real chance in the Arc - Pascal Bary, trainer. The horse is being trained to win the Arc by a trainer who has done so. Plenty of Arcs are won by horses which put up an improved PB in winning the race so I wouldn't over-interpret the trial. The distance is ok and if the ground is on the soft side he can handle it.At the price he represents decent EW value I would have thought. |
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He's 7/1 in places and as big as 12/1, but should be even bigger the way I read his form. Good luck to anyone who's backed him, and if he wins well done for spotting something that I'm just not seeing.
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Demuro has ridden both AI and FTF so his comments on both are interesting:
"It’s a real pleasure to ride the two best three-year-old colts in France. They are quite different in that Feed The Flame is a real horse for 2,400 metres [a mile and a half], and Ace Impact is very effective at 2,000 metres [a mile and a quarter] and, I think, 2,400 metres. "I honestly don’t think there would be a problem in stepping Ace Impact up to 2,400 metres. I’ve watched the race back a thousand times and he was really strong through the line and I have little doubt he would have kept going over further." PS My mistake . Bary has not yet won the Arc but he did go close with Sulamani |
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As to AI chances of getting 12f, well his Dosage Profile suggests he should, but that measure has dropped out of favour to some extent. There haven't been many who have never tried 12f before winning the Arc. One I can remember is Saumarez. There may have been others but memory fails me. Certainly others have placed if not won at 12f.
For what its worth, I have AI at a level good enough to win but that stamina doubt lingers. |
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Prix Niel wnr,Fantastic Moon,probable N/R according to
connections.Looks like they prefer Japan & America. |
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Feed the Flame had excuses in the Prix du Jockey CLub (as discussed earlier in this thread). His impressive win in the Grand Prix de Paris looks even better now after Adelaide River made all to win at Leopardstown on Saturday.
Feed the Flame was given too much to do last Sunday and will be fitter for the Arc. The trainer has repeated his statement that he would prefer softer ground, so we can assume that that is true. Given softer going in the Arc, I can see him going off favourite on the day. So I want him onside at the moment (with the possibility of it coming up very soft again). |
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Marksman, but that was only a Gp3 where Adelaide River was greatly favoured by the weights (and the slow pace Moore set). Beating White Birch by 1.5 lengths while in receipt of 3lbs, he wouldn't even be good enough to win a St Leger.
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auguste rodin going straight to breeders cup according to aob.
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When asked (on Sky Sports) where Continuous would race next, the only race that AOB mentioned was the Arc. He then said he would have to discuss it with the lads.
The Arc is (unusually) only 15 days after the Leger this year, so this could come round too soon. But, on the other hand, the quick turnaround might be the sort of thing to break the Leger/Arc hoodoo. Strange things happen in racing. |
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I think Coolmore would go for this race given the question mark about the stamina of the fav. The only negative is he'd a race on this tacky ground, and it's only 2 weeks' away. Maybe America with its prize money.
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It was a very good win today from Continuous, but that run
was still 6lb+ short of an average Arc winner. For him to improve that much again in just 2 weeks, I would have my doubts. |
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Savethelastdance has taken a massive walk into the wilderness. On the other hand the price of Continuous has been contracting; he'd need to be supplemented though.
A decision made or bookies's friend? |
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had a fewnquid on fantastic moon yesterday at around 100/1 on here yesterday ,prob done me dough but not a lot of rain in the forcast after this week and connections might be tempted!
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The 22-strong syndicate which owns Fantastic Moon has unanimously voted to reject several big-money offers for the impressive Prix Niel winner and has decided to skip next month's Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, with trips to the US or Japan under consideration for the son of Sea The Moon. _Racing Post 13/09/2023
Sorry to bring you bad news, Foyles, but at least you won't be tempted to throw more money at him now. |
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cheers marksman was only afew quid just under a tenner anyway so not the end of the world
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BBC Forecast for Paris next week is for warm, sunny and dry.
Going should be on the quick side. Ace Impact will be suited by this as it will help him get the trip. It will be against Feed the Flame. These conditions will be what Westover has been waiting for. Rule out Savethelastdance as she won't be running now (if she was ever an intended runner) Through Seven Seas wants these conditions more than anyone: She was unlucky in Takarazuka Kinen in Japan in June. Given seemingly to much to do at the back, she may still have won, but for being checked about 1 furlong out. Once clear she closed down Equinox to be beaten a neck. This was on Good to Firm. She has been at Chantilly for a week now, so will have had time to aclimatize. I am no longer keen on Feed the Flame on quick conditions and I see it as being between Ace Impact and Through Seven Seas. Through Seven Seas could be the value as she looks more likely to improve for going up to 1m4f. The drawback is that she is a 5yo and whenever she runs at G1 level she goes off at big prices (55/1 in the above mentioned race), suggesting that she was flattered by getting that close to Equinox. But there is an opinion that, even on quicker going, Ace Impact will not be as good at 1m4f. My sole reason for preferring Through Seven Seas is that she is a bigger price at the moment. |
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Lightly raced for a 5 year old though, Marksman.
Her win to run ratio would be a concern for me, but her two beat runs have both been this term. |
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hopefully the lads send Auguste Rodin here if the it remains dry, mostly because i backed him and Desert Crown and it would be nice if one showed up,
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I do not think Desert Crown will ever race again. Every time his work rate is raised he'd succumb to another injury; the horse is fragile.
As for Auguste Rodin he's no Golden Horn or even Adayar or Wings Of Eagles. He beat another hyped horse in King Of Steel. He was also gifted the Irish Champion Stakes due to the injudicious rides of his two principals; he just managed to win the Irish Derby too. |
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According to Paris Turf rain is expected tomorrow and Friday (5 to 15mm). After this there won't be anymore rain at all before the Arc. The manager of ParisLongchamp, Charles de Gordon, is counting on it being Good to Soft. However Paris Turf comment (in the same article) that, with the forecast temperatures of between 23 and 27 for all of next week, the going could be faster than this in the middle of the afternoon on the big day. Conditions could be comparable to those of 2018 when it was officially good.
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Thank you, marksman
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'The plan is to go' - Bay Bridge set to run in Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
Another big headline from the Racing Post. This "news" has been available on ATR website for a week. When RP start hyping a horse for a race a week away, I start having my doubts. And when I read further down this was said: "The plan is to go as long as the ground stays on the easy side," Savage said at Newmarket's Open Weekend. Doesn't look to me that it will be on the easy side, given the forecast. |
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The market is suggesting Continuous will be supplemented. Any worries for the rest?
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