Well none of these will be running:
Fantastic Moon
Zagrey
Paddington
Hurricane Lane (officially scratched)
Adayar (scratched)
Torquator Tasso (retired to stud)
Grand Glory (retired to stud)
Desert Crown (out for the season, at least)

And there are loads more who are extremely unlikely such as:
Sammarco (in the sales the night before the Arc)
Equinox  (Has not been entered and connections have stated that they will miss the Arc).

I don't consider running in a winning a 14f race just 15 days before the Arc as necessarily a disadvantage.  But when the race is the St Leger, that is a whole different ball game.  The stats are massively against Continuous winning this.  2 years ago I posted stats that indicated that the Leger was one of the worst (or the worst) G1 race for horses to make a quick reappearance after winning or even running in.  I will try and retrieve updated stats soon.

Which is a better horse or a horse with more credentials, Order Of St George or Continuous? I think most would agree it'd be Order Of St George. The former was 4th To Enable, and 3rd to Found in The ARC,

Continuous beat Arrest? What did Arrest beat? Continuous was behind King Of Steel and Ace Impart over 12f; behind Ace Impart and Feed The Flame over 10.5f. The ARC price of Continuous is about right on a line with Feed The Flame given possible ground.

Since the French Derby has been over 10F (2005) not 1 wnr has gone on to
win the Arc that year,think 10 have tried.Sottsass did but as a 4yr old.
Ace Impact could well change that this year.1st try @ 12F in this but the
way he he won the his Derby looks sure to get it to me.No reason that Feed
The Flame & Continuous will reverse the form from what I can see.Seems to
go on all surfaces aswell.Looking forward to a big performance from this
horse.Hope they all show.
   GL ALL

User Friendly came close when just touched off by Subotica.
Already a GP1 filly being an Epsom,Irish & Yorkshire Oaks wnr.

fantastic moon could be supplimented back in according to media ,what happens to ante post bets ?

from RacingTV website:

A favourable weather forecast has prompted connections of Fantastic Moon to reconsider supplementing the German Derby winner for Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at ParisLongchamp.

Despite winning a recognised Arc trial over the course and distance in the Prix Niel, the Sea The Moon colt looked set to sidestep Europe’s premier middle-distance contest in favour of either a trip to the Breeders’ Cup or a tilt at the Japan Cup.

However, with little or no rain forecast in Paris in the run-up to Sunday’s showpiece, his team are now giving serious thought to adding him to the field on Wednesday at a cost of €120,000.

Lars-Wilhelm Baumgarten of owners Liberty Racing said: “We discussed it yesterday, because the weather forecast is dry and the sun in shining in Paris, perhaps we will get good ground.


“We will decide as late as possible because every day is important for us. How the horse is, how is he looking and working.

“We have a few opportunities too with the Breeders’ Cup and the Japan Cup and now we have the option of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe again.

“We will see – our vet will check him, he will gallop in Munich and then we will see what’s going on and what the weather forecast will be in Paris.

“We decided two weeks ago that we would not run but the situation is new, the ground is better than we expected and the horse is better than we expected 14 days after the Prix Niel.

“It’s new information and a lot of horses are out of the race, so we will see.”

Foyleswar

The forfeit (2) and supplementary stages are a day earlier for the Arc (not so other races on the card) so you will know before tomorrow lunchtime if Fantastic Moon is a runner. Final runners on Thursday.

I also have a fun bet on another German horse, Mr Hollywood at crazy odds (average @ 147) although ideally he wants soft/heavy, but has run OK on good. The H2H between our runners is 1-1, MH beating FM by 7.5L (10f on heavy) and the latter turning the form around winning by 2.5L in the German Derby(12f). I've seen FM twice, once in München when he was beaten by Charlie Appleby's Nations Pride, the other occasion at the trial 3 week ago. He ran well to win, but the pace was a farce.

Good luck.

AOB and Coolmore will not run Auguste Rodin, Luxembourg or Savethelastdance here. I think Continuous offers a day out for the most dominant horseracing stable and horseracing enterprise in the world. I think 6/1 is shocking for a St Leger winner; a place lay is so very tempting for me.

we maybe looking at a new great of french horseracing to rival some of their best in ace impact . I would select it if my life were on it , but , 7-2 about a horse that connections neglected to run around longchamp in the niel to steal more prizemoney . The course  should come as much the same as the last , but , if youre thinking and dont know where you are because you,ve not been before , because the greedy owners wanted a bigger cheque than the niel its a negative . At the prices i,ll be on through seven seas . best of luck with your selection

'gpz6316', are you turning Japanese? A few close shaves and false dawns in the past, and this year's rep is under-the-radar. My anteposts are the 2 French 3 yr olds. Best of luck!

e , sou desu !

Soumillon or Demuro? Which local jockey pushed a British jockey off his horse deliberately in a big race in France?

Thanks 'Marksman'. I got him then, and Demuro against the field. Either will do me fine.

Emily Upjohn: That's Gosden for you. When defeating Westover at Epsom he was eulogising the fillies, and destination France the main aim. Unless something is amiss with her - no news apparent on this - I think she ought to be here rather than the 2nd-rated Fillies and Mares at Ascot next month.

Marksman, a couple of long distance races aren't the best to use as a guide, but it's difficult to see how it can be slower than good on the evidence so far.

Any thoughts on an accurate ground description for tomorrow, it appears to have been cracking the flags all week in Paris but ‘good to soft’ going?? TIA!

Very slightly the fast side of good. Basically it's good ground, with no excuse for any of them.

I do not know if Figg can reply this late, but
When Feed The Flame won the Grand Prix De Paris it was reported as good to soft but his time indicated much faster going?

When Feed The Flame won the Grand Prix De Paris it was reported as good to soft but his time indicated much faster going?

BOTR, yes, really it was good to firm that day.