Sandown, as I said, I'm not criticising your own personal methods, as I don't know what they are. I know you use projected upgrades based on sectional times, but I don't know the exact workings. What I am criticising is the stuff I see from Timeform and every writer who adheres to their methodology. I have horses already rated highly on time. Then read someone say the performance can be upgraded significantly further because of a fast late sectional. This almost always turns out to be bollocks.

I am not for one moment saying sectionals do not have a use. I'm saying that some people who have put a lot of time and effort into sectionals have overestimated their usefulness. Would be a hell of a lot of work just to concede that their use is limited. Of course some races are run more efficiently than others. Some horses'superiority is masked by a slowly run race. But the margin between efficient and inefficient isn't nearly as narrow as is being stated.

In fact, the more players who do not make any allowance for such ratings only means a better price can be had.

That may have been true a few years ago, and it may even still be true for your own methods. However, if you read much punditry online you'll see that these factors are being incorporated far more, and it is having a big influence on the markets.

I prefer difference of opinion

Same here, but mainly for a different reason. Just because I'm critical of certain statements regarding sectionals doesn't mean I don't welcome them for financial reasons. This new influx of sectionals influencing the market is one of the best things to have happened in years. As it's been more difficult in recent times as the markets, in general, are much more influenced by weight of money which is now informed money. By informed money I mean those with knowledge of a horse's very recent well being and gallops work. Playing against that kind of knowledge isn't easy. So I'm happy to see anything that I consider of less value having influence.

I can't say that I have seen much in the way of over-betting of horses with previous fast sectionals, certainly not across markets from grade 4 upwards anyway. Below that grade it seems to me in recent months that a lot of horses with higher back ratings have been winning more than expected which might suggest a greater degree of stables readying horses back to form and getting them entered into a class that the horse can win in if fit and ready.

I have also experienced the opposite, not personally but through connections, a number of really heavy planned bets (up to a year in advance even) where the money was misplaced and the horse ran badly. I'm a little concerned that the new whip rules can be having an effect. At the top end, there have been a few inexplicable runs followed by vast improvement. The best example perhaps being AOB's Derby winner. I have no explanations for this pattern.

One pattern I have picked up is the late, very late, movement in prices near the off which is problematic from the point of view of forecasting  based on markets as an important part of models.

The $50 billion black market bookmaker: how an illegal operator became one of the world's biggest

In today's RP. I'm certain that the UK market is not unaffected by illegals. Late money is not always reflected on exchanges. The biggest sharks hunt in our waters for sure.

Can you share the article please, Sandown.

Thanks mate. Will have a google

Impossible, neither has been entered and they would need to be supplemented (at high cost) 6 days before race day to run.

Pascal Bary seemed really keen on going for the Arc with Feed The Flame:  Said that he would be better on soft.  Wasn't suited by quick conditions last time.  When pressed he said he will win the Arc with him.
To my eye, it did look impressive the way he ran past the whole field:  They went a good pace without going too quick as nothing was struggling to keep up with the pace.  Also, the right horses finished 2nd and 3rd.

Really liked his run in the Ferrieres and backed him for the Jockey Club.

Not sure if they gave a reason for his poor show that day?

Bounced back today though.

Plenty to make up on Ace Impact on the Jockey Club running.

The French 3 year olds are looking better than of late this year. I think that is 7/7 this season in three year old races where the home team have prevailed.

Trainer said race probably came too soon for him & he's a 12F horse,
more or less.Being aimed for the Neil & Arc.

I think you're right, penzance.  When he said the last run was too quick, I thought he was referring to the going, but he probably did mean the race came too quick after the previous one.

My take on the GPDP is that Soul Sister didn't run to her (fairly moderate) Oaks winning level, and this is very poor form for a Gp1.

Well, my prediction that Blue Rose Cien will have another easy race, facing third rate fillies in the Nassau, went out of the window as soon as Nashwa won the Falmouth. I've done a complete about turn and backed Nashwa to win today, even though giving 8lbs to a good 3yo filly is never easy.

The great British rip off, would of beat them lot easily

Unlucky in the run but I don't think her French form is that good
tbh.

Yeh,I know you was.
I'm on about the French rnr.

They were never going to go below 11spf in that ground, which is what Nashwa would've needed to do to win from that position when played so late. The ones in the better positions just weren't coming back, having gone so slow for so long.

Blue Rose Cen was boxed-in courtesy of the British jockeys. But, I do not think she'd have won either; she did not pick-up as much as l thought she might do when a gap opened. I think the ground and possibly the trip stretched her stamina to limitation point.

No ARC for Blue Rose Cen for sure.

Ralph Beckett said that Westover is likely to go straight to the Arc without a prep run.  Rob Hornby will keep the ride.

Make me laugh sometimes impossible123, horse lost by 1 1/4 lengths, was cut up, and boxed in like the police do on the motorway when they wanna stop a car.