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Blue Rose Cen was unable to quicken at a crucial stage because of the unfortunate position her jocket found.
She did not fly home when given daylight, but I would ignore that personally on ground as slow as it was last week. I think she is still very much in the mix. Along with the other 3 year olds, Ace Impact, Feed The Flame and Paddington. |
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I think there's more chance of Blue rose Cen making this race than Paddington. I think Coolmore does not compromise stallion fee for chance.
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I think the complete opposite.
They are not afraid of running their horses. Unless if course they are on the decline. Which Paddington is not. Can not see why it would affect his fee if he failed to stay. They ran Galileo on the dirt !! |
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Ran Paddington in the Eclipse against the Oaks rnr/up & Coronation Cup wnr when
he had to prove his stamina.Not as though he's unbeaten anyway. |
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Emily Upjohn is not improving, and 10f is not her distance either. Also, only 4 runners took part. The ARC is a completely different proposition eg a few French 3 yr olds with potentials. I think Hukum would beat Paddington over 12f.
What has Paddington beaten? The same mediocre 3yr olds here, and a non-improving Emily Upjohn. The French runner in The Eclipse was an also-ran in France. I think Paddington is more likely to run in the Irish Champion Stakes than here. I also think Auguste Rodin could be packed-off to stud duty after winning a low-profile race in Ireland. |
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Interesting your view on Emily UpJohn, when according to RPRs and ORs her two lifetime best performances have been in the Coronation and Eclipse this season.
Paddington is the best 3 year old this side of the English Channel and has beaten his elders twice. You may be right, and they may not chance him in the Arc after York and Leopardstown. But the lads do not shy away from a challenge. He is already a top stallion prospect with his cv and more importantly, no Galileo in his pedigree. |
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Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe favourite Ace Impact is the star attraction as he continues his progress towards the big one on October 1 by tackling the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d'Ornano (2.50) at Deauville, tomorrow.
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According to Rouget, trainer of Ace Impact, the horse is only 80/85 per cent ready. Post this the Irish Champion Stakes or Prix Niel a day later; 1.33 from 1.4 yesterday.
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That was a cosy win for Ace Impact. The rest esp Al Riffa with fitness of his side was past easily. The winner was going away at the line.
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Won as you'd expect against some third raters at best.
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Surprised some bookmakers shortened him for big race on the back of that. Workmanlike no more
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Only just started browsing this market the past couple of days. Some of the pricing of the race is a joke at best
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Best some ordinary horses today, but did it very easily in my opinion.
Jockey gave him plenty to do, and was very animated crossing the line for some reason. Would be a concern if he settled him out the back on the 1st October. |
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Beat
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I think unless Paddington turns up which is highly unlikely and neither is Auguste Rodin (he does not like flying); the seniors are no world beaters and also-rans. As such, only the 3yr old colts the most likely winner; the fillies except Blue Rose Cen are exposed and not good enough, I believe.
This could be between the 2 French 3yr olds colts ie Ace Impact and Feed The Flame . Both of these are not ground dependent. This race is only just 6.5 weeks away. |
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E100k for a piece of work. I agree that the 2 French 3yo look good at this stage.
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Ace Impact is probably good enough to place in a moderate year. I have him 1lb behind Vadeni and that horse managed to finish second in a mediocre renewal. Not impossible he could improve a few pounds, but to win with the form he's shown so far it would have to be amongst the worst Arcs run. He's 3/1 in places and that is a terrible price.
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Ace Impact ran a bit fresh at the beginning. I think the Prix Niel (12f) will decide his backers fate ie boom or bust.
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Rouget will discuss with connections whether the horse will take in another race or go straight to The ARC. He said Ace Impact showed the same acceleration and just idled a bit at the end, as he needed the race.
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Vadeni out,been retired.
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Surely Desert crown is still unexposed at the point.I know he keeps struggling to make it to the track, but seems a fair price to me for the big one. He will also be fresh. His prep run is next wed, and hopefully it sets him up right. It will carry a few of my €'s
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*he will carry*
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I'd only consider a bet on Desert Crown when he shows up. I hope Kingscote gets the ride, if so.
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Desert Crown injured (again). Off to hospital. Even if he does turn up in the Arc, he will be a lay. I have seen nothing since his Derby win that has made me think he is an Arc winner. But I have read a lots of column inches about him.
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Out again, i don't fancy him now and i doubt he will turn up. Already have a few € on him, but that's the AP game.
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Paddington, got to win 1st but I wonder if he wins today & does win well,will they give the Arc
serious thought? |
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No ARC surely for Paddington. He was clearly outstayed.
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he will never run beyond a mile again. he scooted home in the irish g and SJP and won well at goodwood. he only scraped home in the eclipse and today got well beaten. i reckon they will run him next in the queen elizabeth and then maybe breeders cup mile - one of his owners is american.
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I'd agree 'brain..'. That could mean Auguste Rodin heading toward Irish Champion along with Luxembourg; QE2 for Paddington at Ascot after a well-earned rest.
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place du carrousel looks big at 66/1 lads and joes ,a lightly raced well bred 4yo won her last start and a group 1 winner at this meeting last year 4 wins from 8 runs this looks to have been the plan and fabre trained the step up in trip should suit and soft ground suits looks like a late maturing type to me and if she lines up will be shorter .
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An interesting filly, Foyles.
Her run last year in the Opera, beating Nashwa is her best run. More will be needed here though. Her dam stayed 12F so there is hope that a step up could bring improvement. GL |
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yep more will be needed but as you say the dam stayed well and the trip could bring out a good bit more , if i have got it right the opera win earned her an all expenses payed trip to the breeders cup and hopefully she will take in the arc as well , hopefully she should be fresh and readied for an autumn campaign with the 2 big races the targets .
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Foyles she may well have had win and you’re in berth for last years breeders cup after winning the opera. I’d be pretty certain it won’t count for this year, as that win and you’re in berth will be for this years winner of the opera.
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Equinox I take it he's a no show here.
Why's that?,thought they'd dearly love to win this race & with this horse have what could be their best chance yet of doing it. |
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Harry will be right on that, Foyles.
Think connections said, regarding Equinox, that he needs fast ground, Penzance. |
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“There are quite attractive races at home, such as the Tenno Sho (Autumn) and the Japan Cup,” said Yonemoto. “However, I think the Breeders' Cup Turf is an attractive option. It is important for him to do well here if we are to travel again but I think the Breeders' Cup would be better than the Arc, especially with the ground.”
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Cheers.
I know he won another big race in Japan not too long ago.Glad I'm wrong thought he might've picked up a knock. |
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japanese horses like many european horses have given up many big races due to their obsession with the arc. so many european horses could have won an english champion stakes or breeders cup turf but ran down the field in the arc instead. same with japanese horses as the arc clashes with one of their big 10f races in october.
every horse and his aunty runs in the arc. its the most difficult to win. if 12 f and soft ground is not your thing then give it a miss. |
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thanks harry and others ,arc the target hopefully .
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Trials day tomorrow but apart from Warm Heart, they are mostly French trained runners. Even so it should help to clarify the pecking order in France if nothing else. Last time I attended, it was horses like Carnegie that were running so a long time ago. Great horses have won on this card though, particularly in the Vermeille.
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