Forums

Horse Antepost

There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
WhiteHatJon
23 Jun 19 09:38
Joined:
Date Joined: 03 Aug 11
| Topic/replies: 162 | Blogger: WhiteHatJon's blog
Very raely do I feel the need for any ante post bets, but my eyes told me that yesterday we saw a very, very good horse win the Chesham at Royal Ascot.

Pintabo trained by Mr Appleby and owned by the right connections was truely impressive and a track record to boot.

16/1 with Ladbrokes was just too good to pass up.

Famous last words of course.

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 1 of 5  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 186
By:
elisjohn
When: 23 Jun 19 10:42
very impressive and a mile no problem,
By:
unclepuncle
When: 23 Jun 19 11:12
Definitely impressive but on what historical basis can you call Godolphin 'the right connections' when looking for a 2,000 Guineas winner*?

*Dawn Approach doesn't count as he was a Jim Bolger horse all the way.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 23 Jun 19 11:22
that was my 1st thought uncle ! very impressive then the godolphin thing  puts the doubt in your mind , some  big money bets  for the 2nd in the ring if true so they must think a good deal of lope y  ferndez and the 2 were well clear of the rest .think i will hold fire for now.
By:
Figgis
When: 23 Jun 19 13:25
Without a doubt the best performance by a 2yo colt this season, but for me a few pounds short of a Guineas winner, unless next year's race proves to be as poor as this year's. I think that form yesterday will carry it so far into this season but it'll probably meet something better later on, unless it can improve again.
By:
Charlton2005
When: 23 Jun 19 13:47
fastest 2y0 ever seen over the course but the time boys say hes no good
By:
Figgis
When: 23 Jun 19 13:54
Charlton, how about an opinion an an actual horse instead of an opinion on other people's opinions? So how good do you say he is?
By:
dunlaying
When: 23 Jun 19 14:00
He is a good horse and I think you are right to have him in the portfolio but , on my figures , he is a little bit short of the top at present .
By:
Charlton2005
When: 23 Jun 19 14:12
how the h3ll can you have an opinion about a race in 11 months time when you don't know whos running?
By:
Figgis
When: 23 Jun 19 14:18
An opinion on how good the horse is, not whether he'll win the Guineas or not.
By:
Charlton2005
When: 23 Jun 19 14:20
A pointless question until you have a mare to send to him
By:
Figgis
When: 23 Jun 19 14:23
Thought not.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 23 Jun 19 15:43
Race won by Churchill a few years back.Only time will tell if he is good enough to win a Guineas but couldn`t have been more impressive.
By:
Howellsy
When: 24 Jun 19 21:50
4 lbs worse than Churchill on my clock but it all depends on how much he develops. That was his third run. He'll be very tough come the big 7f races but I would hope we'll see at least a couple of colts able to improve past him by Dewhurst time - if he's still in training.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Jun 19 13:46
For me Arizona is one of the worst Coventry winners in the last decade. Not quite as bad as Strong Suit but as weak as The Wow Signal and Rajasinghe. Needs to make massive improvement to figure in a Guineas.
By:
woodmanchester
When: 26 Jun 19 14:01
Pinatubo looked good to me

Laddies even got him in the Derby as Pinaturbo, same as Coral! Laugh
By:
elisjohn
When: 26 Jun 19 18:11
breeding suggests a miler,
By:
unclepuncle
When: 29 Jun 19 19:31
Siskin very impressive today but not a Guineas horse for me.
Monarch Of Eygpt was desperately weak in the market but I thought he still ran pretty well and he is bred to want much further.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 31 Jul 19 20:47
Backed Pintabo for the Guineas immediately after the Chesham at 12-1 and layed yesterday at 3.6. If only one could do this every day it would be an easy game.
By:
WhiteHatJon
When: 01 Aug 19 08:40
After the dust has settled and a few replays of the race I've changed my mind about this horse.

He is not a very, very good horse, he could be even better than that.

It's easy to say he beat nothing, but that was not the view before the race nor was his starting price suggesting this was a shoe in.

I'd be interested in the clock watchers view, he won in just about a second quicker than the race afterwards which was for far more experienced horses. Looks another positive to me ?

16/1 now does look too good to be true.

Famous last words x 2.
By:
dunlaying
When: 01 Aug 19 09:33
I have him 2lb ahead of the 2 y o Too Darn Hot . Most impressive .
By:
jamesp
When: 02 Aug 19 10:15
The Vintage Stakes at Goodwood looked a competitive renewal beforehand, yet Pinatubo showed a good turn of foot and demolished his opponents in a fast winning time. He is undoubtedly one of the smartest early juveniles I've seen at this stage of a season. However, he is quite a small and 'set' individual, so the big question is whether he will continue to be way ahead of his contemporaries at the start of May next year. Other potential Guineas contenders, many of them yet to have seen the racecourse, will have a lot more physical scope for improvement than Pinatubo. On the other hand, he may only need to maintain his current level of ability to have a chance of winning an average Guineas (a race which is sometimes referred to as 'the last two-year-old race of the season'), and size isn't everything - Rock of Gibraltar wasn't the biggest, yet he managed to beat his scopier and better-fancied stablemate Hawk Wing in the Guineas of 2002 (before going on to win four more Group 1's).

Well done to those who have backed Pinatubo at big (double digit) prices for the Guineas: I think now would be the time to lay off those bets. He will be hard to beat for the rest of this season if remaining in similar form, but the balance of probabilities is that the bigger, scopier, more backward horses will improve past him over the winter.
By:
Figgis
When: 02 Aug 19 11:37
I'd be interested in the clock watchers view

This is only my view of the time, you will get different opinions from others just as with any other form of handicapping. I said after his last race that he wasn't yet up to Guineas standard, well he is now, but of course that also depends on how high the Guineas standard proves to be next year. I had him improving another 7lbs on Tuesday, which on my figures would've been good enough to win 3 of the last 10 Guineas and dead heated with another. I read the Raceform comments which refer to him not being the biggest and that he might be passed by later maturing types, but I'm more inclined to agree with jamesp's comment that he may only need to maintain current form.

Nevertheless I won't be backing him now at what I consider stingy odds because of some concerns. The obvious one is the same as with any ante post bet on a race a long time away, anything could happen between now and then, injuries, illness, slow to come to hand next spring, etc. Another concern is that by my reckoning he has made huge leaps on every start, 13lbs between Epsom and Ascot and now another 7lbs. Such types who do all that improving as a 2yo often hit a ceiling and then the only way is down. Another worry would be the uncanny knack Godolphin have of screwing up their better 2yos over the winter.

Let's hope they do better with this one, as the last two Guineas have been poor, but if they do get him there in this form it'll take a decent one to beat him
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 02 Aug 19 11:57
"I'd be interested in the clock watchers view"

I only back based on the clock and the Chesham time was very very quick.

Hope he stays sound and wins the Dewhurst and can lay him again for the Guineas at a short price.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 02 Aug 19 17:47
He’s been very impressive but the way bookies price up horses antepost makes him a total non bet.
I wouldn’t touch him at less than 16/1 so 11/4 is just a total joke.

Antepost is dead.Sad
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 02 Aug 19 18:17
Betfair are joe punter just like you and me and they are prepared to lay 3.6-1.
By:
jamesp
When: 02 Aug 19 20:38
I must say, I'm tempted to lay at around 4.5, which strikes me as a completely false price. Only thing that puts me off is the need to tie up funds for nine months... Maybe wait until after he has bolted up in the National Stakes! Grin
By:
A_T
When: 03 Aug 19 09:25
fastest 2y0 ever seen over the course but the time boys say hes no good

times in racing are irrelevant - too many variables for one thing i.e. watering, random placement of stalls, rails and furlong poles. guys watching tv with casios in their hands pressing buttons as horses appear to pass poles. it's just not scientific
By:
Figgis
When: 18 Aug 19 12:57
Not sure how much today's Morny will be a pointer to next year's Guineas. I suspect very little but it may impact on the betting for it. Personally I just don't see A'Ali as fast enough for this. I fancied Raffle Prize last time and immediately after the race I thought she might have improved again, but on review I have that win 3lbs worse than her Queen Mary victory. If I thought she would run to her Queen Mary form here I would fancy her again, as I reckon the fillies allowance just swings it for her, but I would not be at all surprised to see further regression today. Earthlight looked fairly impressive last time, and as an unbeaten runner he could improve further, but at the moment I think he has a few pounds to find.

I said I thought the Coventry was well below Guineas winning standard and those that have come out since have done nothing to alter that view. However, the form still gives Arizona a winning chance today. I liked him physically and after watching the Coventry and his maiden win some more I think he could be better than the bare result at Ascot and more open to further progress than most of these. He might have had a hard race last time but he has had a little break, so assuming he has recovered I think he's more likely to run his race than the filly and is the one I'm backing.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 18 Aug 19 13:44
suppose at the current prices i can see why arizona is a more attractive betting proposition, raffel prize broke the 6f newmarket juvenile course record,
hard to understand how that has run below its queen mary run, im hoping raffel prize or golden horde can win it, earthlight could be very fast. goodluck
By:
Figgis
When: 18 Aug 19 13:54
It broke the track record because the ground was very fast.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 18 Aug 19 14:00
wouldnt read that form as regression, arizona has had a good rest, raffel prize has been kept on the go, just got a feeling arizona wont win today.
will find out soon enough.
By:
Figgis
When: 18 Aug 19 14:14
Well, I don't expect horses to run right up to the pound every time and I would class a difference of only 3lbs as pretty much running to form. The point is unlike the general view I've read I don't believe she improved last time, and when one of these fast early 2yos of Johnston's start to plateau their form usually falls off a cliff.
By:
Figgis
When: 18 Aug 19 15:03
It was the O'Brien runner that fell off a cliff, as the market weakness predicted, although admittedly his form wasn't great anyway and it was a poor choice from me. The filly ran a good race but well done any Earthlight backers.
By:
impossible123
When: 18 Aug 19 15:14
Sheikh Mo has two very decent colts for this race in Pinatubo and Earthlight who's just won the Prix Morny at Deauville, and both have been entered for the Dewhurst.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 18 Aug 19 15:15
thought there wasnt much between arizona & golden horde, with the threat form line, they where both very weak in the market, more concerning for arizona
considering it was one of the market leaders, earthlight made the race difficult race to call, thats two very fast shamardal horses this year now with pinatubo
as well
By:
Figgis
When: 18 Aug 19 15:21
For a change the ground description in France is close to the mark. Don't think I'd quite call it heavy but it's certainly very soft, although it probably didn't make much difference to the Morny result in the end. Gosden is concerned about the ground for Coronet and it's true she hasn't won on ground this soft but she did run very well on softish ground last year at Ascot and personally I don't think the going should be an excuse today.
By:
impossible123
When: 18 Aug 19 15:23
No doubt AOB will say the ground could be the factor for a poor show from Arizona. But, Pinatubo is still the one for me unless Siskin wins a Gp 1/2 7f very well.
By:
dunlaying
When: 09 Sep 19 12:39
I like Royal Lytham for a longshot . He looks to have improved with every run so far and  I note that last time out his saddle slipped . I have the impression that he has been running off of his bed and further improvement can be expected . He is a bonny baby and 33/1 looks value for small stakes .
By:
Paterson92
When: 12 Sep 19 08:43
Only had one ante post bet so far on the 2000 Guineas and it’s the Gosden trained Tsar at 50’s (which is still currently available).

He ran in a Newmarket maiden (July course) finishing 4th.

The above sentence alone doesn’t scream Guineas winner, however he was a big baby on the day losing at least 5 lengths coming out the stalls and had to be switched right 2f out before staying on encouragingly under a relatively careful ride from Frankie. He finished just over 2 lengths behind the Hannon trained winner Al Madhar.

Impossible to tell at the time whether that maiden would turn out to be half decent, however have been keeping an eye on the form since:

1st Al Madhar - unraced since, however was previously entered in the upcoming Champagne Stakes at Doncaster.
2nd Al Suhail - went on to win at long odds on next time out at Yarmouth before finishing a length 3rd to Positive in the Solario Stakes.
3rd First Receiver - unraced since with no current entries.
5th Kipling - unraced since, however had finished second in his maiden behind Lope Y Fernandez who was 2nd to the current Guineas fav Pinatubo at Royal Ascot.
6th Dulas - unraced since, however has entry in the Dewhurst.
7th Eshaasy - went on to win next time out at Kempton before finishing 5th in the Solario Stakes.
8th Tammani - went on to win next time out at Sandown before finishing 3rd at Haydock earlier this month.

As expected, Gosden appears to be taking his time with the horse and is currently entered in both the Dewhurst and the Futurity Stakes.

Either take the 50/1 now or wait until after he’s ran next time out and take ... 500/1 Grin
Page 1 of 5  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com