Horse Antepost
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2020 - 2,000 Guineas Thread
2020 - 2,000 Guineas Thread
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Replies: 186
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Good spot.
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Nice form boost for Mums Tipple there with Molatham winning the Flying Scotsman Stakes at Doncaster.
However, also worth nothing that Celtic Art who finished 11th in Tsar’s maiden at Newmarket finished a neck behind Molatham at York. |
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You are correct
I went to the July meeting and this hoss was the only one I took away as a future star Looked very undercooked and drifted badly in the betting to 7-1 Looks like a slow maturing type and whether he runs in these group races seems unlikely considering the lack of race gallop reports One of 3 jg entries in the cHampane-all withdrawn Only got the 50-1 But hey ho we can DREAM  |
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OP sitting on a
PRETTY GOOD BET GL Think I need to start PRAYING  |
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Pinatubo is named after a volcano in the Philippines. After today's performance I think Sheikh Mo cannot wait for next May to arrive; that was a sensational victory by Pinatubo; 9l to the Coventry winner (3rd) Arizona who was 5l behind Earthlight (another Sheikh Mo's). As things stand one of his will be Newmarket bound, the other Longchamp, I believe.
Andre Fabre (Earthlight) would have been impressed with that performance too. |
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Just layed 2.44. Win the Dewhurst and odds on lay next.
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Thank you ImSoLuckyLucky,
This horse does look the real deal I must say. I'm a little surprised My Appleby is talking about the Dewhurst, but why not make hay while the sun shines I guess ? |
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i also got some 50s tsar (thanks for highlighting it patterson ) the bandwagon has long since left my town regarding pinatubo and 6/4 is no good to me but it does leave some juicy prices for others and rather backing the fav i will be chipping away with 3 or 4 against it at big prices
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If Pinatubo was trained by AOB he'd be 4/5 and no more. I just hope he gets to Newmarket on 30th April, trained on or not. I'd like to see him put away for the winter as he's beaten the best with the exception of Earthlight; a line thro' Arizona gives Pinatubo a few lengths superior to Earthlight.
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I see Palace pier win has given off mixed signals
Also noted Tsar has been mentioned in stable gallops  |
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Charlton2005
23 Jun 19 13:47 Joined: 25 Aug 05 | Topic/replies: 8,716 | Blogger: Charlton2005's blog fastest 2y0 ever seen over the course but the time boys say hes no good uncanny how useless an indicator times are |
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Who are these time boys? Are they a team who agree on everything? Or which ones said he was no good?
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Figgis
Date Joined: 28 Sep 04 Add contact | Send message 23 Jun 19 13:25 Joined: 28 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 8,295 | Blogger: Figgis's blog Without a doubt the best performance by a 2yo colt this season, but for me a few pounds short of a Guineas winner, unless next year's race proves to be as poor as this year's. I think that form yesterday will carry it so far into this season but it'll probably meet something better later on, unless it can improve again. lets just say that you and the rest of the time boys didn't get no 16s |
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white hat jon was taking 16s while you were saying the horse is not a guineas winner unless he comes up against the worst 3 year old crop in 30 years.
ergo my conclusion is that you time guys are always behind the curve because time is not correlated, linearly or otherwise, to quality nor results. |
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lets just say that you and the rest of the time boys didn't get no 16s
I certainly didn't get 16s. how the h3ll can you have an opinion about a race in 11 months time when you don't know whos running? But then as someone who thought it impossible to give an opinion on such a race neither did you. As for being behind the curve... A pointless question until you have a mare to send to him It would be difficult to be further behind someone who can't give an opinion until the horse is at stud |
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as noted in the past, deflecting attention from the point is your main asset.
my involvement is irrelevant (although reading between the lines you could make a case that I was siding with the OP, not with you) the salient facts of the matter are (1) a guy who watches races figured out the horse was value at 16s (2) a guy who uses times claimed the horse could win a guineas if it was the worst guineas in 30 years neither (1) not (2) are arguable. for once in your life hold up your hand and say that a race watcher schooled you. |
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deflecting attention from the point
The point? The only point I could see in your original post was that "times are a useless indicator" because they didn't show "the time boys" that Pinatubo was going to be a strong favourite for the Guineas as early as Ascot. Which is about as dumb as coming to the conclusion that any kind of form study is useless because it didn't predict a certain scenario that unfolded in a given situation. Very well done to WhiteHatJon, he saw something that it took me until Goodwood to recognise. He sounds a sensible bloke and I'm sure he would admit that he's fancied others that didn't turn out as well, just as any of us have. Well, I mean any of us who haven't been too scared to give a view. And when he has got it wrong it would be considered laughable to say his methods were useless, unless you had a brain of the local bookies village **** |
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the keyword was uncanny.
we have howellsy saying magna grecia is better than too darn hot. you unable to recognise the brilliance of Pinatubo and the list goes ooooooooooooooooooooooonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn. uncanny how often you guys got it so wrong. that is the point. nice aftertime btw |
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uncanny how often you guys got it so wrong
I get it wrong lots of times. Never met a punter who didn't, even successful ones. No aftertiming here. I said I thought he'd win at Goodwood on here then after the win said I though he was good enough to win a typical Guineas. I still haven't backed him though apart from at Goodwood, so I'm certainly not claiming any ante post credit. Incidentally he still hasn't won a Guineas yet so it would only be a trader who could claim any profit so far. You rarely give an opinion on a race beforehand, even when pushed on Pinatubo after Ascot. I've seen your posts tipping 16/1 shots without any reasoning, that win about, oh, every 1 in 17 attempts, where you mysteriously disappear without trace after losers, unless it's to blame the jockey afterwards. Yet you have the continuous habit of appearing after time to post pseudo intelligent comments when others get it wrong. Now that's uncanny |
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Just layed 2.44. Win the Dewhurst and odds on lay next.
Felt, not implying at all that you're wrong to lay, just curious why? Don't rate him that highly or just too short for a horse who might not even show up? |
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Straight after the Chesham I backed him at 12-1 and since then following his two subsequent wins I have traded x3 times. If he goes to and wins the Dewhurst I anticipate trading at least one more time to balance the "books". I have always been a trader based on a few bitter experiences.
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I would love him to win as I think he is a bit special but I have to let my head rule my heart.
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Tsar entered up twice for Wednesday 02/10 - both 1m Novice Stakes at Kempton and Newcastle.
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Earthlight and Pinatubo if both fit do
you's think they will take eachother on in the Guineas? |
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earthlight for gns, and pinatubo after winning the dewhurst and rated highest ever again will be retired injured over the winter imo
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All being well Pinatubo heads to Newmarket and Earthlight the French 2000G. They won;t take each other on. If so, Pinatubo will annihilate Earthlight.
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fabre will be telling godolphin where theyre going
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Very, very unlikely Pinatubo and Earthlight will do battle at Newmarket next April when there's a French 2000G just up his street - a 2000G for each 1st; they can meet in the St James's Palace post 2000G.
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Tsar declared Newcastle-Kentucky Derbi Stakes
Havlin riding Sounds like hes a Derbi hoss |
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The talking horse Tsar, due to run in a minor event later this week: both his sire (Kingman) and his dam (Kilo Alpha) were milers, and some of his siblings have been milers, so his future likely lies over distances from a mile up to 10f. Can't see him getting 12f.
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Tsar wins the race but NOT very comfortably
A worse performance than Newmarket I think this hoss is a 4 year old in the making As a miler he is very immature and unlikely to trouble the 2000 gns field Unfortunately |
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Kinross(GB)
2yo(06May17 b c) TrainerRalph Beckett (Last 14 days: 8-40, 20%) OwnerJ H Richmond-Watson SireKingman (GB) (8.7f) DamCeilidh House (GB) Dam's SireSelkirk (USA) (9.2f) BreederLawn Stud 4.00. Newmarket 5th Oct 2019. Weatherbys Design And Print Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race) 7f, Class 4, £5,175.20 Going: Good To Soft 1st KINROSS. SP. 3/1. 15 ran Distances: 8l, 3¼l, nk Time: 1m 26.02s (slow by 3.72s) As debuts go that was about as impressive as it gets |
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I have to admit to having real concerns about the Dewhurst on Saturday.
What more can this horse do this year ? Is Mr Appleby trying to milk races this year as he fears next year I wonder ? I'm a massive layer on Saturday at 2/5 rather than lay the 5/4 for next April and I'd gladly pay to be honest. Anybody feel the same ? |
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If you lay Pinatubo to lose the Dewhurst and he wins you lose. If you don`t lay Pinatubo to lose the Guineas and he wins you lose again.
As stated below I have already traded Pinatubo for the Guineas and will do so again to balance out a situation that maximises my profit. As far as the Dewhurst is concerned I will just watch and hope he wins. I do have some concerns however that if the ground gets very soft he is not given an unnecessarily hard race. It`s difficult to compare Frankel with Pinatubo but the latter is the best two year old I have seen before or after Frankel and I hope he continues to keep winning. |
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Sorry "If you don`t lay Pinatubo to lose the Guineas and he wins you lose again.
Should say "If you don`t lay Pinatubo to lose the Guineas and he loses you lose again." Senior moment. |
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Hear what you say Feltfair, but I have to admit to having a bigger problem than backing the horse at 16/1.
I pressed up again at 7/2 and now have an overall 7/1 to a mighty big bet for me. Why run him on Saturday is all I ask ? |
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The Sheik needs the money.
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There is absolutely no logic whatsoever to run tomorrow after the annihilation in Ireland. I just hope the horse makes the gig at Newmarket next April; no thing to prove. Maybe Sheikh Mo wants his photograph taken with Pinatubo after winning The Dewhurst.
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After revising that National Stakes Curragh card I have downgraded Pinatubo and only have him 2lbs up from Goodwood instead of 7lbs. This still leaves him capable of winning a Guineas in a decent year but a few pounds short of the exceptional colt he appeared to me at the time. As for the Dewhurst, on form it would be a big surprise if one of the others could match him at the moment, but I couldn't say I'd be completely surprised if he took a downturn, so just a watching race for me.
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On my clock Pinatubo is an exceptional 2yo, probably the best in the last decade or more (outside of Wesley Ward sprinters). Does that make him a certainty for the Guineas? No. Gorytus, Alhaarth anyone? Personally I'd be concerned that his physique is not that of one who is going to show normal or above average improvement as a 3yo, thereby leaving the door slightly ajar for a more scopey sort.
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