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2020 - 2,000 Guineas Thread
2020 - 2,000 Guineas Thread
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I think Military March is going to be a big player in the Derby. Looked to do everything wrong on the way down and overshot the start. Obviously very fresh and from the 3 slot thought he ran a credible race. Didn't have the pace of the front three in the race after the preliminaries but by New Approach and will love the extra 1/2 mile. What do they say, 4th in the Guineas 1st in the Derby.
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yes didnt they have another couple of years back, last here and won the irish 2,000
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thats why i could never have obrien as a cecil/ fabre or a vincent
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Not a race to set the pulse racing but the winner can’t be faulted and won well.
With the Irish Guineas and possibly Rotal Ascot coming too soon and the Eclipse not an option this season I guess they may have a go at the Derby and then drop back for the Juddmonte or Sussex Stakes. Wichita had the run of the race and the advantage of the rail and ran well and I’m assuming he’ll now go for the SJP. Pinatubo came there to win but whereas last year the afterburners kicked in this time he laboured and was beaten fair and square. Military March certainly ran well and should be a big player in the Derby, though it will be disappointing if there isn’t something better out there (hopegully Mogul). Kinross was well beaten but wasn’t given a hard time once his chance had gone - won’t desert him just yet and at least he should be a decent price next time. |
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elisjohn
I think Power was well fancied one year,finished last more or less,then won the IR2000G. |
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Great thread from the very start.
Enjoyable read throughout,some insightful analysis from plenty of posters,regardless of the result. Like many,there was a part of me that wanted to see Pinatubo continue his winning streak. Not to be on the day,he was far from disgraced,looked like he battled all the way. Without wishing to get too much flak,Is there a chance we might see him revert back to shorter distances? What opportunities are there later in the season for 3 yr old sprinters ? Just a thought. |
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thought it was a fantastic result, had the race between the favourite and the winner, the favourite was unbackable on the day and value backers rewarded at 10/1, had forgotten
the race was being run yesterday, just going to watch the race now. after losing roaring lion last year, welcome news for qatar racing limited and both horses sired by kittens joy. |
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thought Juan Elcano looked a real Leger type - long striding and probably not suited by the ground - by Frankel with lots of stamina in the dam side. trained in the north so probably not one for the Derby
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I've watched the race again this morning a few times, in the vain hope of being able to blame the jockey, blame the date of the race or blame other outside influences for the defeat of Pinatubo. But I am just clutching at straws.
He had no excuses, there were no hard luck stories and he was 3rd best on the day. It is as simple as that. Well done to those who backed the winner, he looks a real nice type. It is time for me to shut up and go away and lick my wounds. |
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It was not to be nevertheless, still a mighty profit could be had from trading given the race sp with minimal outlay.
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I thought Magna Grecia and Saxon Warrior were poor recent Guineas winners but in my view this was the worst Guineas winning performance of the last 10 years. I don't agree with the view that Pinatubo ran well but the others have simply caught him up. Even though I said I didn't think he was a superstar beforehand I have no doubts he was well below his best on Saturday. I remember it being said last year that Too Darn Hot had been overtaken by later maturing types, but, even though he had been overrated as a 2yo, it was shown later in the season that he had just taken time to come to hand as a 3yo.
There were no excuses in the race for Pinatubo at the weekend, and banking on any horse turning up in top form the following season is a risk ante post punters always have to accept. However, I still think his backers were a bit unlucky in the sense that even though it's how they run on the day that counts, he wasn't beaten by better horses, just better horses on the day. Whether he'll return to the horse he was last year (a clearly very good but not exceptional performer) is anyone's guess but, for me, he was about 10lbs below his best in the Guineas. With the view to Kameko possibly being more of a middle distance type it wasn't a bad performance in that respect. Although I'll be looking for a better Derby prospect myself, it is form that would see him in the mix at Epsom if he can repeat it. As far as top class mile form goes though, personally, I think it is garbage. |
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I see Timeform have rated Kameko the fourth highest winner this century. I find that astonishing, but it's always welcome when the big ratings firms have an opinion that differs greatly from mine. I actually think Love could've competed off level weights and still beat Kameko about half a length.
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Too Darn Hot was injured and missed the Guineas so not a very good comparison IMO
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The comparison was with another horse highly rated as a 2yo who was then said to have been caught up and left behind early in its 3yo season. TDH was well fancied but beaten in the Dante. There were a variety of excuses made there, lack of stamina, not completely fit, etc. However when beaten in the Irish Guineas and SJP the majority opinion was he had been left behind. This was proved false as he later proved himself better than the horses who finished ahead of him. I don't see how TDH missing the Guineas makes the comparison invalid.
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Reading the Timeform comments that amazingly they have only 3 higher rated Guineas performances this century. Just had a quick look back, I have only 3 worse
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Figgis, I couldn't disagree more with you. I think you've downgraded it because of the 8f handicap on the card, but it makes much more sense to assume Montatham is highly progressive, different class to his rivals, and just had the perfect sectionals for a really quick time. Every other race on the card fits in with my rating of Kameko as a perfectly solid Guineas winner, roughly equal to Dawn Approach and better than the likes of Galileo Gold and Churchill for example. The 'look' of the race backs this up, with decent distances separating the principals from the rest. Pinatubo ran up to his Dewhurst form almost to the pound, and simply has not improved, nor, in my opinion, will he have any more to offer than this figure, although it will be good enough to win a group 1 in the right circumstances, unless he regresses now which is possible. It's a myth to think Montatham could have recorded the time he did if he'd run in the Guineas - he'd have been tailed off in such a brutal test. To me, this year we had 3 proper candidates slugging it out. The issue for me is how either of the beaten colts can recover in time for Ascot. I feel Clive Cox might have got himself a good opportunity there with Positive.
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I think you've downgraded it because of the 8f handicap on the card
Howellsy, yes the time comparison is a good guide, especially as there was no excuse with the pace, but that is only one of the pointers I've used. Along with the view that it wasn't a race with strength in depth beforehand, ratings for the front two last year, the fact that a proven horse like Arizona ran no race, unknown quantities like Kinross proved no good, as well as Military March and Juan Elcano not being up to much. I could allow for some of those negatives but for me everything points to the race being well below par. The worst figure for years, in my view. If Kameko is up with the four best winning performances this century, then Wichita, beaten only a neck and only run out of it in the last half furlong, must be some horse too? |
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Why shouldn't Wichita be some horse? He looked pretty good at Newmarket on his 3rd start, recording a very promising speed figure, and ran ok on unsuitable ground in the Dewhurst. This was his fifth start. He was backed from 20s into 10s in the 24 hours before the race. Let's wait and see if he's as good as some of us think he now is. Kameko won a group 1 at 2 - the same group 1 that each of the last 3 Guineas winners have now won; Pinatubo won everything; Military March was a highly promising unexposed type, and Juan Elcano was unexposed and entitled to improve on some promising 2yo form on pedigree. All the context suggests it has every right to be good form.
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Howellsy, yes I had Wichita running to a decent mark on that third start and of course he could have improved, but I have Saturday's effort only 1lb higher than that. Obviously he had some good GPS tracked workouts going into the race like so many well backed Coolmore runners but I doubt they rated him up with their best ever. Doesn't mean he couldn't surprise even them of course but there is just too much going against the race for me. I think the only way it could possibly be rated highly is because of the Pinatubo factor and rating that one close to his best. Irrespective of time comparisons, watching the visual evidence of how he actually performed in the race in relation to runners like MM and JE, that view seems a big stretch to me.
If Kameko is beaten at Epsom and gets dropped back to a mile I'll be surprised if he can win another Gp1 this season. |
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I would strongly expect Kameko to win at least 1 group 1 over 10f. I don't see him staying the Derby trip.
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I have to agree with Figgis here. Take the favourite out of the race, because he never ran to known form, you have an AW Gr1 winner beating a Gr3 winner and a Gr3 winner. A novice winner was 4th(5th) and 5th (6th). And the winners form ties in exactly with Kinross in 5th (6th).
They may be the best around until proven otherwise but at this moment 'not a great race'. |
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presume its like that every year in the guineas with the eventual winner usually beating group 2/3 horses, more often than not the prominent top form horses come to the fore,
this year was no different in that respect, the favourite was not a proven to stay a mile, unlike the winner, do think the interupted racing schedule could of been a factor in the favourites performance, could be very interesting for the rest of the season, dependent on if or when these horses do battle again |
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The difference is when a top class miler beats those Gp2/3 horses it's usually a more comprehensive beating than just a neck. After some of the time performances that Pinatubo put up over 7f as a 2yo, and the way he finished those races, I don't believe he wouldn't stay a mile as a 3yo. Dropping him back in trip won't help. Racing pundits always look for negative outside influences, such as the ground, trip, etc, but, just like any athlete, horses have physical ups and downs. Hopefully Pinatubo's recent down isn't a permanent decline, as even though I don't see him as a superstar he would be a worthy Gp1 winner. It's going to be a poor season for 3yo milers if that's the best we get to see, in my view.
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I cannot fathom Kameko. He improved 19 lengths on Royal Dornoch, 22 lengths on Al Suhail and through Positive 13 lengths on Pinatubo. In fact, some of his previous form looks pretty ordinary. Something is going to give, I just don't yet know what it is. Either Kameko is a different horse this year or Al Suhail, Royal Dornoch and Pinatubo were not 100% on the day. We will find out, I'm sure.
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think kameko would of beaten the runner up by more than a neck, had to barge his way through at one stage and the 2nd had much better trip through the race, seems the winner is destined for 10/12f races, only time will tell how good the winner is, do agree that the favourite didnt seem to perform on the day and like the winner, should improve hopefully .
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The St James Palace looks like it told us Pinatubo is about the same horse as last season. He beat Positive and Arizona the right distances and narrowly beat Wichita who may have improved a little on last season.
At the moment Pinatubo could still prove to be a very good horse but that now all depends upon Palace Pier and Kameko. If they go on to be extra special then quite a few of us were not completely wrong about Pinatubo. However, if they don't, then last seasons two-year-olds were clearly nothing special. |
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the fillies even worse after the coronation stakes yesterday, seems love beat trees at newmarket, anyway looking to next year guineas,s , cant say ive seen anything at r ascot this week that looks gns hopeful to me let alone winner.
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