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impossible123
23 Sep 18 19:59
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Date Joined: 07 Sep 15
| Topic/replies: 20,369 | Blogger: impossible123's blog
The principal protagonists Too Darn Hot, Quorto and Sangarius are destined for this, according to their trainers, If so, a dress rehearsal for the 2000G next May, I believe; the prices are 13/8, 11/4 and 13/2 respectively. Let's hope all show up on race day for a stonking contest.

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Replies: 215
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 26 Sep 18 16:26
Quorto not running - put away for season according to Godolphin.com
By:
impossible123
When: 26 Sep 18 16:26
Quorto has ducked the challenge against Too Darn Hot. Well done Godolphin!
By:
gpz6316
When: 27 Sep 18 20:33
if my patron was sheikh mohammed and his horse won the national stakes . and with a profile like that , to milk the oil cow . i would do the same . why blow the bubble in a 2yo race . charlie will have a no expense spared ticket with  this horse .if hes well beat in the dewhurst that bubble bursts . he might of won it , but , there is no upside for the trainer to contest it
By:
impossible123
When: 27 Sep 18 21:35
Did the trainer of Quorto not nominate The Dewhurst post his National win, all being well? Since the Derby win of Masar Godolphin had been less than sporting, I think, eg scratching Masar from the Irish Derby. Also, I think Ten Sovereigns may run here if he wins convincingly this saturday; Anthony Van Dyck in the Vertem Futurity Stakes (Racing Post).
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 28 Sep 18 14:26
No he didn't. Said he may go Dewhurst or may be put away till next year.
By:
Try My Best
When: 28 Sep 18 15:26
Right decision.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 28 Sep 18 16:50
He has a group 1 to his name now, whereas Too Darn Hot still needs to win one as a two year old to enhance his stallion value.
By:
Mystic Wind
When: 29 Sep 18 16:29
Quorto is a NR.

Too Darn Hot's form has taken a few knocks this week (Arthur Kitt, Cardini).

Ten Sovereigns is far from certain to run (or stay if he does).

Sangarius has to improve a lot.

Advertise is yet to prove he stays 7f.

Who is APOB going to be running in this? I suspect it will be Anthony Van Dyck, and he would arguably bring the best form into the race.

0.5pt Anthony Van Dyck @ 9/1
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 29 Sep 18 16:31
yeah and o'brien seems to dominate every two year old race going over here, i mentioned on the other forum it's surprising that anyone even backs anything else
By:
impossible123
When: 29 Sep 18 17:12
Anthony Van Dyck, I think, is more likely to run in the Venterm Futurity (formerly Racing Post) over 8f.
By:
impossible123
When: 08 Oct 18 23:21
AOB: "The plan is to run Anthony Van Dyck (AVD), while Christmas and Mohawk are also possibles. It is quite possible Ten Sovereigns will go to The Dewhurst, and a decision will be made probably on wednesday."

I'd be surprised to see AVD running here given he seemed to need further than 7f when he last ran. If so, who'd AOB have for The Vertem Futurity over 8f at Doncaster on 27th Oct?
By:
Mystic Wind
When: 09 Oct 18 07:55
There's a difference between 'needing' further and 'getting' further. I'm pretty sure AVD will get further, but I'm equally sure he doesn't need further - I seem to recall APOB saying something similar in the past.

After all, he was up with pace throughout in the National and hit the front 2f out, only to be beaten by what I (and others) think is the best colt around. Similarly, he hit the front a furlong out in the Futurity.

If you look at the distances he beat Christmas & Mohawk in those races, you'd also have to conclude that he's progressive at the trip.

He probably doesn't want a dawdle followed by a final furlong sprint, but as APOB has entered half of his 2yo colts I'm sure he'll get a good pace to run at. It's quite some luxury to be able to use a top quality horse such as Christmas as a pacemaker!
By:
impossible123
When: 09 Oct 18 10:28
I think unless AOB wants a definitive answer to the stamina of Ten Sovereigns early for race planning prior to The 2000G he'd not run the horse against Too Darn Hot (TDH) and Sangarius here so soon post his previous race; Anthony Van Dyck (AVD), I thought, was rushed-up to be closer to his pacesetter - he lacked pace (to me) as a top Gp 1 7f or miler. I thought The Vertem Futurity over a mile would be more his cup of tea similar to Saxon Warrior.

To forfeit a race that AVD would/could win ie The Vertem Futurity or run against TDH and S here, no brainer for me; I think AVD is AOB's best bullet for The 2000G unless Ten Sovereigns proves his stamina beyond any doubt. Opinions, opinions, opinions,...that is the conundrum, and joy of horse betting!
By:
Figgis
When: 09 Oct 18 14:43
Don't know if his posts are getting even more convoluted or it's the Johnnie Walker I had last night Grin
By:
Figgis
When: 09 Oct 18 14:58
IF Ten Sovereigns stays then he wins in my view. It's not impossible that we could have two 2yos run to that mark over 7f in the same season but it's unlikely. Big problem is I just don't know if he'll stay. Plus he ended up having a bit of a hard race with Jash fighting him to the line, so it seems a quick reappearance but must be they think he's taken the race well.

If he doesn't stay (or even run) I have TDH next best but 4lbs behind. Even though he'd be the one most likely to capitalise on TS's lack of stamina I'm against him here. I think most horses who've run back to back speed figures in the manner he has will go backwards next time. Even though I think he'll probably come up just short for the Guineas I'd have still put him away for the season.

He could be tougher than most or he could even improve again being such a young inexperienced horse, and the last report I saw said he was going well at home so they could be proved right to run him. I'm playing the percentage call though and the plan is to lay him.
By:
willie the milk
When: 09 Oct 18 16:52
At the prices, it's Advertise for me ew at 8s. Has already won a G1 whereas TDH hasn't. I know it has to get the the 7th furlong. The Stoute horse has to massively improve and you have no idea what Aiden will send over.
By:
impossible123
When: 09 Oct 18 21:15
Holy Moly, still no market for this race on the Exchange unlike online fixed odds bookies. I understand AOB still has 8 entered, but how can it compete if prices are still no up 4 days to race?
By:
Mystic Wind
When: 10 Oct 18 17:31
Ten Sovereigns not running, leaving AVD as stable's main hope. According to the RP, Christmas will also run (no shock there) and possibly Mohawk too (I thought they were going to put him away after the Royal Lodge?).

Cracking race in prospect.
By:
impossible123
When: 10 Oct 18 17:54
Surprisingly Anthony Van Dyck is a confirmed runner, and the race just got more interesting; a yardstick for Too Darn Hot to Quorto.

I hope Anthony Van Dyck would still go for The Vertem Futurity on 27th Oct.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 10 Oct 18 18:13
Figgis and i may have disagreed about Enable, but we agree on Ten Sovereigns although he's now a confirmed NR. Not entirely a shock, 3 quick races in 5 weeks, it wouldn't have been fair on the horse, he's far too good to mess with.

As stated on several threads in the past i really rate him and went to Newmarket just to watch/back him. I hope AOB keeps him to 6f, he could be a good thing for the Commonwealth Cup next year.
By:
Figgis
When: 10 Oct 18 18:22
Better for me that TS isn't running as can lay TDH even cheaper. If he is below par then there are more dangers than just TS.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 10 Oct 18 18:38
Figgis,

I'm inclined to agree, this race is not cut and dried and i'm a little surprised TDH is odds on with Sangrius in the field.
By:
Figgis
When: 10 Oct 18 19:03
Andrew, if TDH runs to the form of his last two wins he'll probably win. At least the others will need to improve. He's 10/11 now and on form I'd say that's a fair enough price. I just know it's very difficult for most horses to achieve what he's being asked to do. I make him 9/4 against just to run to his best form regardless of winning the race. If he does run below par it depends by how much but AVD is the one most likely to capitalise.

I can't get a proper handle yet on Sangarius. For me he needs to progress significantly but he seems highly thought of and open to improvement so I'm hoping he's another running for me if AVD can't replicate his latest run.
By:
Mystic Wind
When: 10 Oct 18 19:10
I'm too long in the tooth to think that Sangarius can't win but his form isn't in the same parish as AVD's. Perhaps he's catching pigeons at home because on the form he's shown thus far he certainly shouldn't be a 3/1 shot against this lot.
By:
Try My Best
When: 11 Oct 18 22:39
Stoute horse will eat TDH on Saturday
By:
Mystic Wind
When: 12 Oct 18 06:59
Bing bong. Stewards Enquiry, Stewards Enquiry.
By:
impossible123
When: 12 Oct 18 11:47
That was a bullish statement. Coincidentally, Sly boosting the price of TDH from 'evens' to 2/1, anyone managed to get on?
By:
Try My Best
When: 12 Oct 18 19:56
TDH drawn in box seat
By:
impossible123
When: 12 Oct 18 21:00
Appropriately named, appropriate(ly) performance perhaps or hyped...we shall know by 15:05 tomorrow barring a delay.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 13 Oct 18 09:59
I think it's a race to watch, there are too many ?

I wouldn't back TDH, but nor would i lay him. I do like AVD, but i'm going to have a fun EW bet on his stablemate Mohawk. Good luck.
By:
Howellsy
When: 13 Oct 18 10:32
I don't see that many variables in the race. It will be run at a strong pace, a Dewhurst that lives up to its billing as a race that exposes inexperienced types, so Sangarius is very unlikely to be able to win (twice raced Listed winner?). Advertise is unlikely to fancy the final furlong even if he is a genuine group 1 colt, which is uncertain. The National Stakes was a true group 1 test over the trip for me, and I think AVD will replicate his run. Basically, it comes down to whether Too Darn Hot has enough experience and class to overcome AVD, who will be staying on strongly up the hill. I think TDH might just be able to do it, but that's the only question mark for me. Only two can win it, and depending what sort of punter you are, you could back AVD alone as the value in the race, or you could make a better than evens profit on AVD whilst saving on TDH if desired.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 13 Oct 18 10:40
Frankie seemed a bit worried about the ground for Too Darn Hot yesterday - hoping for a heavy dew but stick reading went from 7.7 to 8.0 overnight.

I would n't be that surprised if Gosden walks the course and decides not to run.

I've had a small bet on Mohawk though the musical jockeys concerns me - I suspect Mohawk might set the pace - not that it will necessarily compromise his chances to do so as he'll clearly need a strong pace dropping back in trip, I'm actually tempted to just take AOB's three against the rest of the field - seen it too many times before.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 13 Oct 18 11:23
Been very impressed with TDH & if handling this very fast ground (at this time of yr?) I think he will win again 2day. Odds on not my thing, but hope he wins well, he looks classy.
By:
Figgis
When: 13 Oct 18 11:54
"He's in great form, very happy with him. He's a sweet, lovely horse to be around," Gosden told At The Races in an interview on Tuesday.

"He'll pick up and do a little piece of work next week, a couple of bits, and then hopefully on to the Dewhurst.

"We couldn't be happier with him.


Well, Gosden and the yard are obviously very happy with the horse at the moment and expecting him to run to form. I don't want to turn this into a 'he'll bounce' statement as I don't know that he will. I just believe that in general horses with his profile are more likely to throw in a below par effort next time so I reckon he's too short. I enjoy these kind of bets as I believe it's one area where an advantage can be gained over those closer to the horse. It used to be said that as a punter you're betting against 'the crowd', but I think more than ever nowadays it's often a case of betting against those well connected, which still includes bookmakers of course.
By:
impossible123
When: 13 Oct 18 12:04
I think Christmas will make the running to ensure the race is run at a decent pace in order to give his stablemate AVD the best chance of winning; Dettori will be handy (unlike previous) and challenge 1f-->2f out, if ground is not an impediment. I think Sangarius will not be placed either; 2.9 and 1.8 for places look tempting (personally).
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 13 Oct 18 12:22
No doubt a few jockeys will be at fault Bungle if they get beat.
By:
Figgis
When: 13 Oct 18 15:28
Hands up, I thought TDH had likely hit a peak but even an early reflection on today's card tells he's improved a bit again. After thinking he was done for midway through the race he ended up winning quite impressively and burning my fingers. I can obviously see why he's been shortened so much for the Guineas, because if you take the form literally he's better than Quorto or Calyx. A quick comparison of the times makes it a good one but nothing out of this world. Personally I don't think AVD was quite at the level he was in the National Stakes, but others will differ.

So while I'm now (finally) convinced TDH is up to winning an average Guineas I'd still only rate him very similar to Quorto.  Where he may have an advantage is, given his profile, he might even improve again and then there's the matter of whether you place more trust in Gosden or Godolphin to deliver.
By:
Mystic Wind
When: 13 Oct 18 16:01
Well done TDH backers. Two sons of Dubawi going head-to-head in May, that will be something to savour.
By:
Figgis
When: 13 Oct 18 16:05
Regarding Gosden and the Guineas, even though I was implying Gosden could be trusted more it has to be remembered he hasn't trained a Guineas winner yet. I'd say he should have already won one with Kingman, and while the jockey got most of the criticism for that I thought it was Gosden who was at fault for allowing the horse to do too much in the Greenham beforehand. A mistake Coolmore wouldn't make.

I think Calyx and Ten Sovereigns are better than both TDH and Quorto but probably unlikely stayers. Too Darn Hot is 7/4 and Quorto is 8/1. I'd say it should be much much closer than that. Apart from thinking AVD didn't replicate his National Stakes run I don't think Advertise quite stayed the 7f. I'm in no rush to back either TDH or Quorto at current prices but may back either of them even at shorter prices nearer the time depending on what happens in the spring.
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