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Dewhurst Stakes (13th Oct)

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Replies: 215
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 Oct 18 21:24
mind you all gambling is bollox really, I'm increasingly coming to the conclusion that the whole thing is a con.

but I guess that's a debate for another time...
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 14 Oct 18 21:26
The only reason I did n't include post Dewhurst prices for Frankel and Dawn Approach was that I could nt find them. Still can't find Frankel but looks like Dawn Approach was 5/1 after the Dewhurst (looks big now Happy ) and 11/8 2,000 Guineas SP
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Oct 18 21:56
I'm increasingly coming to the conclusion that the whole thing is a con

Grin. I think pre-race opinion punting certainly isn't impossible, but it has become more difficult and is increasingly the domain of 'insiders', which is why it is shrinking and will continue to do so.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 14 Oct 18 22:48
I would expect Quorto to run in the Craven and Calyx in the Greenham. Ten Sovereigns might run in the Leopardstown trial over 7 furlongs if they decide to go for the Guineas. If they all hack up there will be a big shake up in the market.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 Oct 18 23:01
I would expect Quorto to run in the Craven and Calyx in the Greenham.

I would be amazed if Calyx lined up in the 2000 guineas. expect some announcement about how he's not been ready in time, followed by the delay of his three year old career, or retirement altogether. The sad reality of flat racing when they are wrapped up in cotton wool.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 14 Oct 18 23:04
I don't see why when he has supposedly recovered well from what was only a minor injury and the Guineas is still 7 months away.
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Oct 18 23:05
Going off recent seasons I'd expect Godolphin to take in a trial if they have a contender. They didn't years ago with runners like Mark Of Esteem and I wouldn't be surprised if they go straight to the Guineas this time around. There is a different vibe with this horse than in recent times as there's a degree of confidence rather than hope. It takes some support to oust a well fancied Coolmore runner from favouritism in their own back yard and the confidence proved justified. This on the back of just two wins which were comfortable but a long way short of what he showed at the Curragh.

The connections of Ten Sovereigns didn't sound any more confident about him staying than they did Caravaggio. They tossed around the idea of giving him a trial over 7f but decided against it. Unless they see something that tells them different in the spring it looks more likely TS will follow a similar sprinting path. Crisford seems keen to prove Jash could stay a mile and I'd expect him to go for the Greenham all being well.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 Oct 18 23:14
Jack Bauer '24' 14 Oct 18 23:04 Joined: 30 May 02 | Topic/replies: 6,576 | Blogger: Jack Bauer '24''s blog
I don't see why when he has supposedly recovered well from what was only a minor injury and the Guineas is still 7 months away.


can you recall any horse winning the guineas though, having been injured at some point in it's two year old career? I can't. In fact I can't recall any horse on the flat ever getting injured as a two year old and then coming back and doing anything.

makes me wonder if they just view the horse as a two year old, and want to pack it off early to stud while it still has some value and hasn't blotted the copybook. same sort of thing happened with teofilo. perhaps he was getting lapped at home by too darn hot, and they decided to pick up sticks.

another horse I can't seem to figure out is this burke horse kadar. been entered in two races recently and has been pulled out of both. apparently the trainer rates this one highly so I wonder if they are wrapping it up in cotton wool as they think it's the billy bollox.

mind you I often wonder about the judgement of some of these trainers anyway. apparently beat le bon was hannon's "guineas" horse and that couldn't even win a race at redcar. Crazy
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Oct 18 23:16
LR, Kingman had an injury as a 2yo.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 14 Oct 18 23:17
I hope they decide to stick to sprinting with TS as I backed him for the Commonwealth Cup before the Middle park win and I'd rather they train him as a sprinter instead of messing him about trying to conserve his speed and risk ruining him. I would be surprised if he won the Guineas as he seems to have inherited all his sire's speed.
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Oct 18 23:28
Gosden sounded very confident that Calyx would make a full recovery from his injury. However it is this statement after the Coventry that makes me think he sees the horse as more about speed.

Asked if Calyx is a 2000 Guineas horse, Gosden added: "I don't see why not. He is rateable and was relaxed enough early, but at the moment let's see if we can win a Prix Morny with him and then we will think about stepping up a bit later on. We'll freshen him up and go for the Prix Morny.

I'm not putting down the Morny for potential Guineas winners, I know Zafonic won it as a 2yo, but it doesn't strike me as a race Gosden would specifically target with a horse he was confident of becoming a Guineas horse.
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Oct 18 23:30
His only previous winner of the race was Shalaa, an out and out sprinter.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 14 Oct 18 23:44
You may be right about the Morny as Shalaa always looked like a sprinter, but I'm very hopeful Calyx will get further and I think the Guineas is the race the owner would like to target. Gosden has never won the Guineas so I think he would rather have two strong fancies going into the race rather than just one, but it all depends on what he is showing them next spring and how he performs in the Greenham if he goes there.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 14 Oct 18 23:48
The way the schedule is though - they can still revert to sprinting after the Guineas and take in a prep race for the Commonwealth Cup. Admittedly most of the Commonwealth Cup winners to date were campaigned as sprinters beforehand but Muhaarar ran in the French Guineas before the Commonwealth Cup.

I suppose you could argue US Navy Flag might have won the Commnwealth Cup if they had n't kept running him over a mile after he won the Dewhurst.

It might depend what else they have that they think could beat Quorto or Too Darn Hot - it's hard to see Anthony Van Dyck turning around the form at this stage (not impossible though).

I assume we'll see Kadar in the Racing Post Trophy (as was) although his form (such as it is) was n't really franked by Waldstern's performance yesterday
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 14 Oct 18 23:50
^ referring to Jack's post about Ten Sovereigns - you guys too quick for me Happy
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Oct 18 23:52
As a punter I hate the Greenham as a trial for a horse whose stamina for the mile is questionable. Obviously if it fades late it can be ruled out. If it wins and finishes the race quite strongly you can be more hopeful than before, but you still don't know.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 15 Oct 18 00:04
That's right, and there is always the risk of having too hard a race, but if he is going to run in the Guineas they are more than likely going want to run in a trial as he has only had two races and would have been off for a long time and the only other option is the Craven over a mile, and they probably wouldn't want to step straight up to a mile. They will probably follow the same route his sire took.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 15 Oct 18 00:11
The other thing to consider is that I would expect TDH to be stepped up to 10 furlongs at some point, so Gosden might consider Calyx as his potential star miler next season but it all depends on what both horses are showing him next year.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 15 Oct 18 10:10
not sure calyx would get a mile. it burst clear at ascot, then it seemed to me they were gaining on it at the line.

always feel you are best off having a ten furlong type for the guineas, as the mile takes some getting for three year olds early in their career. so in that respect too darn hot has an edge over his rivals. you can clearly see he stays very well. his best furlongs tend to be the last ones.

as I said I think he wins, it's just the thing about him being small, and will that become an issue in his three year old career?
By:
impossible123
When: 15 Oct 18 10:30
TDH could do both ie 8f and 10f very similar to Minding if proving just as excellent over 10f as 8f. Also, I believe had Roaring Lion been campaigned over 8f and 10f in the absence of Saxon Warrior post The 2000G he'd have bagged another 1 or 2 Gp 1 races given his maturity and improvement (if pushed) eg took in The St James Palace (winner Without Parole) before The Eclipse.

TDH could do a Frankel ie be champion over 8f and 10f if winning The 2000G with aplomb next season, all being well.
By:
Figgis
When: 15 Oct 18 12:35
TDH could do a Frankel

No he couldn't.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 15 Oct 18 13:41
TDH is a good horse but frankel was a freak, a one off.

TDH was struggling at the three furlong pole on friday while by contrast Frankel had set five furlong sprinter fractions at the three furlong pole in the guineas.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 15 Oct 18 13:42
so lets put that talk to bed as it doesn't do TDH any favours.
By:
Figgis
When: 15 Oct 18 13:58
as I said I think he wins, it's just the thing about him being small, and will that become an issue in his three year old career?

It could do if he needed to improve but I'd say he's already up to going close in, or even winning, an average kind of Guineas. It's more about keeping him at this level than him needing to progress, at least as far as a Guineas goes. Which isn't always as easy as it sounds. Look what happened with Air Force Blue. He didn't just fail to improve, he went backwards.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 15 Oct 18 13:59
We won't know if he gets the mile until he races over that trip, but he doesn't have a sprinter's pedigree, so when a horse is bred for a mile connections should give him the opportunity to prove he stays the trip he is bred for.
By:
charwell.
When: 16 Oct 18 00:38
I meant TDH couldn't get past the front two when Dettori asked him for his effort in the hottest part of the race


Can't have that for one second. TDH won doing cartwheels despite the ground being too quick, not settling properly at the outset and becoming unbalanced at the dip. His acceleration isn't instant like a Rodrigo De Triano. He has 'turbo lag.' Takes a little while to kick into gear but when he hits his stride pattern it's absolutely phenomenal.

I think Calyx could be the one (if any) to lower TDH. In the Coventry he raced on the wrong side and still blew them all away. HE has exceptional speed but his pedigree suggests he should certainly get the mile. He also has much more scope physically than TDH. If Calyx does stay and both horses are fit and ready to race then if these two went head to head it would be a guineas to savour!
By:
Figgis
When: 16 Oct 18 02:48
Can't have that for one second

Which bit can't you have? Dettori really asked for maximum effort approaching the 2f marker when the pace was fast. The horse didn't hit the front until inside the final furlong, when the pace was slowing. Not knocking the horse, but that isn't having an easy race.
By:
impossible123
When: 16 Oct 18 08:24
From observation I think TDH took a little bit of time to get going mainly dues to the undulation, and possibly the much drier ground he's encountered for the 1st time. And once these predicaments were managed he flew reminiscing of the acceleration showed by Caravaggio in The Commonwealth Cup despite slowly away.

I think Calyx could be another Caravaggio ie potential and acceleration aplenty, but stamina could be suspect.
By:
brigust1
When: 16 Oct 18 11:00
Morning guys.

I think TDH is the real deal. I like the way he saves himself and has to be asked I think that is a major positive with a horse. By one question mark is his stride. He takes about 5 strides per furlong more than Cracksman but I have no evidence to say that is a bad thing. He should be absolutely ideal for the Derby and looks like he already has the 2000 Guineas in the bag.
I heard Dan Barber of Timeform comparing him with Frankel but saying Frankel achieved a higher 2 year old rating beating Klammer in the Royal Lodge by 10 lengths. Of course being Timeform he overlooked the fact that this year's Royal Lodge winner finished nearly 12 lengths behind TDH with the same rating as Klammer in the Dewhurst.

What I hope is that his opponents achieve good ratings before they meet him and are not rated by association as many of Frankel's opponents were. Most achieved their highest rating running against Frankel and that cannot be right. It should be the other way around imo.

I made no mystery of the fact that I thought Frankel was overrated and over hyped and placed terribly accordingly. The unbelievable and scandalous support he was given by Ballydoyle was, as I have said, scandalous but hype is hype nowadays.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 16 Oct 18 11:57
not sure you can win the queen anne by eleven lengths, beating excelebration who was owned by ballydoyle

what were you expecting, 12 lengths? Laugh
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 16 Oct 18 11:58
should have read "not sure you can win the queen anne by eleven lengths and be overrated"
By:
Figgis
When: 16 Oct 18 12:06
To even mention TDH in the same breath as Frankel is utterly ridiculous. So far, TDH is a 2yo who, should he train on, has proved he is up to winning an average Guineas, but so has Quorto.

Timeform have gone out on a limb by saying it's the best performance by a 2yo since Frankel. I don't agree. But I'm happy that ratings services aren't always in agreement with me or everybody else. If they were always right then we'd have no game. Or at least the game would be reduced to guessing if the fav will perform on the day. So that's no complaint. I do find it extremely strange, however, that Advertise has been judged to have run his best race yet over the extra furlong and been put up a fairly big 6lbs. This in light of the fact they concede the time wasn't very fast.

As to Frankel, well no matter who was analysing his winning times, whether it be private individuals or public ratings services (and not all methods are the same) the conclusion was reached that he was running extraordinarily fast. He didn't just do this once, as in the case of Hawk Wing where it could be open to question, he did it time and time again. Who's to say TDH can't improve again? He might do. But he has a hell of a lot of catching up to do. Currently he isn't even in the same ballpark as Frankel.
By:
Figgis
When: 16 Oct 18 12:09
Actually he isn't even as good as Kingman yet Silly
By:
Figgis
When: 16 Oct 18 12:21
I don't understand the statement about it being the best performance by a 2yo since Frankel anyway, as they've got him 127p, apparently they had Air Force Blue 128p after his Dewhurst win.
By:
brigust1
When: 16 Oct 18 12:33
I understand what you are saying F but can you explain to me about Frankel's times when he never even achieved 'average' time in 12 of his 14 runs?
By:
brigust1
When: 16 Oct 18 12:37
Plus being a free-running horse he never got near to a course record in his career.
By:
Figgis
When: 16 Oct 18 12:51
Might have something to do with the little matter that he only encountered good to firm ground 3 times and for 2 of those there was a headwind. Would you also like me to explain why the US flag moved during Apollo 11? Wink
By:
brigust1
When: 16 Oct 18 13:04
Fast times are not only produced on good to firm ground fgs. In fact horses are often unlikely to let themselves down fully on really fast ground. Frankel ran 14 times just squeaking above average on only 2 occasions. Sea the Stars smashed average time 3 times in his 6 runs as a three year old.
In my opinion, Frankel had the perfect conditions and the perfect running style on many occasions to achieve regular fast times but dailed to deliver. He wasn't hostage to pace or his running style but he just never came up with the goods. It ended up with Timeform selecting ONE furlong in the Queen Anne Stakes to make the ridiculous claim he could have been a top class sprinter.
By:
Figgis
When: 16 Oct 18 13:15
In fact horses are often unlikely to let themselves down fully on really fast ground

Yes I've heard this sort of talk before. Maybe that's true for slow horses, mudlarks and crocks. Fact remains that every single record time was achieved on ground at least good to firm.

In my opinion, Frankel had the perfect conditions and the perfect running style on many occasions to achieve regular fast times


That may be your opinion. An examination of the facts tell a different story. It is pointless having an argument with somebody who refers to record or outstandingly fast times as a true reflection of time performance. As you have said many times yourself you disregard times. Your methodology explains why.
By:
Figgis
When: 16 Oct 18 13:20
Maybe we should be lauding Mister Baileys as the best Guineas winner? Grin
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