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Dewhurst Stakes (13th Oct)

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Replies: 215
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 21 Oct 18 10:13
I see this thread has morphed from the Dewhurst to the Champion stakes Wink

Well done Laurie and Figgus with your Cracksman bets, the best horse won on the day although it wasn't a strong field by any means. I didn't back or lay him (I actually backed Crystal Ocean at 1.33 in the place market).

We all know JG keeps his superstars apart and i think this answers a question or two.

Cracksman is undoubtedly a good horse with a decent overall record, but only when everything is right. Connections had several opportunies last year and recently to meet Enable but avoided her every time. I have maintained throughout they knew she was the better of the two. He's better at 10f on ground with soft in the description and i doubt he would ever have beaten a fit Enable over 12f, on any course, even on good to soft. Good luck.
By:
Figgis
When: 21 Oct 18 10:22
i doubt he would ever have beaten a fit Enable over 12f, on any course, even on good to soft.

How would you price him under those conditions against Sea Of Class and Cloth Of Stars?
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 21 Oct 18 11:46
Figgis,

Good question Wink

Let's assume you mean back in time for the Arc (a day before the race) on exactly the same official going, good, although i feel it was a little on the soft side of good.

I never thought Cracksman would run in the Arc as you know, but i would still have Enable favourite, albeit odds against of course. Forget CoS i wouldn't have considered him at the time.

Enable 11/8
Cracksman 5/1
Sea of Class 7/1

Of course after yesterday there will be those (aka Chapman) who feel Cracksman is the best in the world, this is absolute nonsense and only riding the crest of a euphoric wave based on a 6L win against a field unsuited by the distance and/or going, although i accept 100% he won well.
By:
Figgis
When: 21 Oct 18 12:21
Enable as a 3yo was good enough to win or run close to winning many Arcs. In light of this year's result even her biggest fans must realise that she's stood still since then. Cloth Of Stars is not a Gp1 horse, in fact he's never run faster than Gp3 level. He managed to win some piss poor/slowly run races in France. The only reason he got as close as he did to Enable last year was they didn't go as fast as they could have. Enable had run faster earlier in the year.

This year was different. There was no excuse with the pace. Cloth Of Stars got closer because Enable has stood still and is now carrying more weight. My first thoughts watching the race were Sea Of Class would've won with a better draw/trip/ride. This can virtually be proved if you look at the times. There is now talk of Sea Of Class being an exceptional filly, but I still have her no better than an average Oaks winner, so I'll be interested in her next season with a view to opposing her if I think she continues to be overrated on her Arc effort.

I've heard some excuses about Enable's preparation after the result, but before the race her fans were confident that she would be cherry ripe and have only changed their tune as she didn't win as they expected. Some people thought she wouldn't need to improve with wfa whereas I thought she could still be vulnerable to an improver. They turned out to be right and I was wrong. Obviously I can see why Gosden was keen to attempt back to back victories with the filly and he managed to do it, credit to him. He achieved it though in a very poor renewal. She hasn't improved with wfa and would be very lucky to face a set of opponents next year as poor as this year. Wouldn't be surprised if Gosden realises this and quits while she's ahead.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 21 Oct 18 12:50
Figgis,

I agree entirely with some of the above, but you have to consider that Enable only had one race this year, no other Arc winner had such a preparation. She had been off with 'injury' and subsequent to that a 'high temperature' issue that was such her run was even in doubt.

She burst 3L clear at 100m and it was only lack of fitness that prevented that being further and was the best horse on the day. 10 wins, all on different tracks, over varying distances and going, without question, one of the best middle distance fillies ever.

The time was the fastest on the days card with respect to 'standard', in fact, it was the only one that was 'fast' (above standard). She was also giving weight to Sea Of Class.

I'm on the fence with respect to Sea Of Class, but i will state today she will never beat Enable next year and connections will not pass over the opportunity to race for a third Arc win that may never be repeated.
By:
Figgis
When: 21 Oct 18 13:09
Gosden always said the injury was minor and he was confident about her recovery. The only reason there was a prolonged delay with her comeback was that, once an early season start was ruled out, Gosden was single-mindedly preparing her for one race, the Arc.

it was only lack of fitness that prevented that being further

Well I can't say that's definitely not true but at the moment it's a guess with a positive spin.

Do you think she was any less fit than Cracksman who hadn't run since June? I'd say Gosden is more than capable at getting both horses fit for the day that mattered.

The time was the fastest on the days card with respect to 'standard'

There is often a difference between the shorter races on the Arc card and the longer ones, could be different ground or, more likely, the rail movement. A comparison with the 10f Wild Illusion race shows it was a below par time performance for an Arc. But I accept that's open to interpretation.

10 wins, all on different tracks, over varying distances and going, without question, one of the best middle distance fillies ever.

Certainly one of the best 3yo fillies. Her two runs as a 4yo wouldn't be up with the best for me.
By:
Figgis
When: 21 Oct 18 13:16
The stuff about Enable's prep, lack of fitness, etc, and if it affected her performance can only be conjecture. What surely isn't conjecture though is the disadvantage Sea Of Class had in trying to win the race from where she was. This wasn't just a case of a horse plodding on past spent horses plodding even slower. So then the question is how good is Sea Of Class? I'd say a bit better than I thought she was but still wouldn't have her as a better than average Oaks winner.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 21 Oct 18 13:29
Irrespective of Enables injury/sickness, you can't ignore the fact she's the only winner in hostoiry to have has one race in the same season pre the Arc, surely that's an achievement in itself.

I don't subscribe to the ride JD gave SOC, but i appreciate my views could appear to be biased based on my liking of Enable.

Many good colts and fillies come from well off the pace at Longchamp and win, even allowing for a short straight (forget the 'false' part) ...... SOC didn't. Dancing Brave and Zarkava (in the Vermeille) spring to mind.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 21 Oct 18 13:30
Poor typing above Sad
By:
Figgis
When: 21 Oct 18 13:38
she's the only winner in hostoiry to have has one race in the same season pre the Arc, surely that's an achievement in itself.

To win only one race beforehand would obviously not be an aim for most connections so will only happen due to mishaps. It's going to be a rarity but I personally wouldn't see it as a disadvantage, providing it wasn't a serious issue that had caused it. I actually take the opposite view, that to be raced sparingly is actually usually an advantage before a big race. If Cracksman had taken in the KG, International or Irish Champion Stakes and ran right up to his peak in those races I'd have been less keen on him yesterday and might not even have bothered at the price.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 21 Oct 18 14:30
Figgis,

I think if Enable wins next years Arc on the bridle, with Frankie standing in the saddle reading the front page of 'Le Paris Turf' in the last 100 metres, and after winning the Coronation Cup, KG and Juddmonte with ease, you will probably find a negative WinkLaugh
By:
Figgis
When: 21 Oct 18 14:53
Laugh. Not me Andrew. Think you'll find I've changed opinion on horses many times. I'm always open to the idea of young horses being able to leave their old form behind. On Cracksman I've changed it a few times. Thought he was overrated before last year's Voltigeur, then liked him afterwards.Thought as a 4yo he was overrated until the POW then liked him after.

If you look at last year's Oaks thread there was no bigger praise for Enable's ability than from me. However I'm also open to the idea of horse's failing to make assumed improvement too. Can't quite remember the phrase that Beyer came out with, something about love the race but don't love the horse as far as betting goes. There seems to be a love of the horse clouding the view of the recent form going on here Wink
By:
brigust1
When: 21 Oct 18 15:01
Hi guys. I have to agree I agree with Figgis about Enable in general but do believe she suffered from a truncated season and then problems late on with temperature etc. When Frankie set sail for home, considering he didn't know about her problems, he did it very smoothly and she just never found for him late on making the finisher look better and potentially unlucky. I would like to see Enable run again to set my mind at rest.
Sea of Class would have won tidily without Enable but she had the fillies allowance and the horses behind her were not as good as Enable's first Arc. It will be interesting next season but it depends entirely on what runs. For me the bar at the moment is not very high and having already doubled Cracksman up with TDH in both the Guineas and the Derby I have also had a few quid TDH at 16's for the Arc with the Lads who seem to be taking a stand against him in both the Derby and the Arc.

Hi Andrew, good to see you hold Prat Chapman in similar esteem to me. Laugh
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 21 Oct 18 15:03
There seems to be a love of the horse clouding the view of the recent form going on here

In part i would agree, although i would never let love of a horse rule my wallet Wink

Her 2018 form is not so shabby and you still have to take into consideration her lack of fitness in both races. The Arc may not have been the strongest field, but no Arc is easy, there were enough group 1 winners way behind her and the form has already been franked by Magical at Ascot yesterday.

I was also all over her after Epsom 2017 with many posts on here, she won me a good few bob last year.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 21 Oct 18 15:09
Hi Laurie,

MC reminds me of a typical Saturday afternoon betting shop punter.

I don't have an issue with some of his flamboyance (up to a point) although i hate his USA style of announcements at prize giving, but all this TDH good as Frankel and Cracksman best in the world is simply over-stated rubbish.

As for TDH, i wish you good luck, but if he wins any race over 12f next year i will streak down the Rowley mile, not a pretty sight Laugh
By:
Figgis
When: 21 Oct 18 15:14
Back to the Dewhurst. When this race comes around personally I'm just looking for something that can win an average Guineas. It would be nice to see a future Frankel but that's certainly not what I'm expecting. For those who are saying TDH could be up to winning an average Guineas I agree, but I also think Quorto could be. It seems to me though that he is not just being talked of as a potential Guineas winner, but a potential 'superstar'. Any unbeaten horse could potentially be a superstar but nothing he has done so far suggests he's that good.

As far as his staying prospects go there is a good article on ATR by Simon Rowlands. It's a very interesting area but not anything I claim to know much about.

http://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sectional-spotlight
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