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Dewhurst Stakes (13th Oct)

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Replies: 215
By:
Figgis
When: 13 Oct 18 16:16
Actually I also think Gosden made a similar mistake with Ravens Pass, as regardless of whether he'd have beaten Henrythenavigator or not (I think not at that stage), he certainly ran well below form after having a hard race in the Craven. Will be interesting to see if he runs TDH in a trial.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 13 Oct 18 16:18
john gosden might not have trained a guineas winner yet, last few years he has been smashing it up, he is
lot more easier to follow then aiden obrien who nearly always has multiple runners in the same races,
aiden obrien might have the group 1 record for most wins in a season and over 300 group 1 wins, john gosden
is his equal when it comes to training horses.
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 13 Oct 18 16:19
Ten Sovereigns looks a sprinter but Calyx is bred to be a miler on both sides of his pedigree and I'm hopeful he will stay until he proves he doesn't. I think TDH and Quorto will both eventually be 10 furlong horses, so if there is a potentially top class specialist miler in the field I think it's Calyx.
By:
Figgis
When: 13 Oct 18 16:25
Ten Sovereigns looks a sprinter but Calyx is bred to be a miler on both sides of his pedigree and I'm hopeful he will stay until he proves he doesn't

Yes Jack you could be right about Calyx. I don't know if he'll stay but was just calling him a probable non stayer with Gosden going early with him for a race like the Coventry, makes me think he thinks he's more about speed, as I don't think it's the way he usually goes with his potential star milers. As you say though until proven we don't know.
By:
Mystic Wind
When: 13 Oct 18 18:21
My speed figure for TDH's Dewhurst is a little underwhelming given how visually impressive he was. It's about 5lbs better than he'd achieved before, but that still leaves him with another 5lbs or so to find with Quorto on my figures. Yes, I know that collateral form lines would suggest otherwise, but that's what my clock says. Perhaps I'm just clutching at straws!

The sectional timing will be interesting, my guess is it will reveal a moderate early pace followed by a bit of a sprint, which would possibly explain the under-performance of the Ballydoyle trio.
By:
deepingfox
When: 13 Oct 18 19:22
I would prefer QUORTO for the 2000 Guineas, but still think TDH will be close up in both the Guineas and the Derby, maybe even winning the Epsom classic.

Hope all the main Players winter well and give us some special classic races next year.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 13 Oct 18 19:49
Well done winners - could n't have got that more wrong if I'd tried! - I'm a TDH believer now (although no interest in getting involved antepost as May is a long way off).

Good effort by Advertise too - I was sceptical about the level of his form going into the race but he's been consistent all season and already has a Group One to his name - I think he'd be better off trying to take on Ten Sovereigns and Jash (assuming they end up in the Commonwealth Cup) than going the Guineas route although there's a lot of water to go under the bridge before then.

Good points by Figgis and roadrunner about Gosden - but it is true that it's increasingly rare for one of his top notchers to disappoint on the really big days.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 13 Oct 18 21:44
clearly a very good precocious 2 year old, i'll be amazed if he ever runs past a mile and a quarter tbh and cannot see his campaign involving middle distances, if he does train on and improve at 3 he could be a special colt but not sure he isn't just a top class 2 year old myself, we will see i suppose. imo we are blessed with some decent 2 year olds this season something i couldn't say in the past couple of seasons, who were just an average bunch imo
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 Oct 18 10:34
i'll be amazed if he ever runs past a mile and a quarter tbh

his full sister was a staying on second in the st leger about a month ago.

his dosage index is .75.

don't be fooled, yes the horse is quick with a fast stride pattern but the horse is a freak, he has the ability to be competitive over a mile but will also stay much further.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 14 Oct 18 11:30
i'm not fooled lewisham ranger and i'm not living the dream of an ante post derby ticket and even if i did have a voucher i would still be realistic on what i see and what is best for the horse

he for me is a precocious 2 year old with speed and unlike many of the family whom get better with age and distance they we're far less precocious than him at 2

too darn hot however seems far more forward and it will be interesting to see how he progresses at 3, he shows tremendous speed and i do not see him routing over any further than 1m2f myself

we will see i suppose, one thing is for sure he has had the perfect preparation to win a 2000 guineas, something i wouldn't say for quorto whom i have a small voucher on and i expect this horse to win that race from what i have seen of all the other 2 year olds
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 Oct 18 12:12
interesting reading the thoughts of gosden today- he was saying that too darn hot takes more after his father than his mother.

reading that and knowing how careful gosden is I wouldn't be suprised if the horse didn't even run in the derby now. more likely it seems he will be aimed at the guineas, followed by the irish version, then perhaps royal ascot and the st james palace followed by the eclipse, if everything goes to plan.

of course he could go for the dante, but if gosden doesn't seem him as a middle distance horse I don't see the point of going down that route.

of course he could also get stuffed in the guineas in which case all well-laid plans go out the window.
By:
Howellsy
When: 14 Oct 18 13:54
AS usual, the hype machine gets into full swing before the ink is dry on the form book. TDH had maximum cover throughout the race and ran on past tiring rivals in the final furlong. Clearly a top class colt but still a few pounds short of an average Guineas winner on my figures. I make AVD ten pounds slower than in the National. Quorto could be a great value bet if he turns up on the day after a clear run in the spring.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 Oct 18 14:01
why would he be ten pounds worse?

this is what I don't get about speed figures, the whole thing is just one person's interpretation of the facts, rather than the actual facts.
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Oct 18 14:10
Howellsy, we're quite close on AVD as I have him 8lbs lower than in the National. That still puts TDH equal with Quorto for me however. Watching both horses I'd have to say I was more taken with Quorto as an individual and he'd be my guess to make the better 3yo, he's certainly the only one offering any value. Given Godolphin's recent terrible record of rarely even making the gig I'd prefer to wait. The signs are that it could improve with Appleby as at least they had a runner this year with Masar, who just wasn't good enough on the day.

We've seen four horses with the speed to win an average Guineas. Calyx, Ten Sovereigns, Quorto and Too Darn Hot. In years when we've only seen one or two there is always the chance of a mishap or two but I'd say it's highly unlikely the winner will come outside of those four. The first two may be eventually ruled out due to stamina limitations and Calyx also has an injury issue to overcome.
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Oct 18 14:17
rather than the actual facts

LR, that's the thing with any form evaluation, there are no actual facts as to how many or which horses ran to form or improved/regressed. Whether it is a collateral approach or a time perspective there is always an interpretation involved. At least from a time perspective there are a few more tools to use than just rating around one horse as a 'yardstick'.
By:
Howellsy
When: 14 Oct 18 14:50
Yesterday, TDH ran a third of a second quicker than both Persian King and Magna Grecia. So TDH can't have been a world beater on the clock yesterday unless you think there were 2 other world beaters running half an hour earlier. It's not that complicated. Now, the sectional lads might have a different view which is a bit more complicated, but for me TDH had everything in his favour to win yesterday's race. I'm not saying he can't run faster given the right circumstances, but time does at least add some perspective.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 Oct 18 14:51
surely too darn hot stands out visually more than quorto. quorto just looks like your generic high-class flat horse, good but not anything amazingly impressive about him. Not one of his races I've seen, I've been blown away by like I have about too darn hot. In fact after too darn hot won his maiden I came on here and made a thread about him winning a classic, I have never been remotely tempted to that about the godolphin horse.

but as you say, all about opinions...
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Oct 18 15:01
LR, I agree that TDH has been more impressive in the distance he's been winning some races, but in my view he was racing against inferior opponents compared to the AVD that was primed for the National Stakes. Obviously that's a subjective view, as some will have the opinion the exact same AVD showed up yesterday. Just as some will think Advertise was as good yesterday over 7f as he had been over 6f in the Coventry, whereas I don't.

I meant I was more impressed with Quorto as a physical specimen and the way he travelled throughout his races. You can never know with these things but I'd side with him to make the better 3yo.
By:
Howellsy
When: 14 Oct 18 15:02
Were you one of those people, like me, who ignored the poor speed figure for the Guineas and believed in the visual impression given by Saxon Warrior? Look at how well Tip Two Win ran that day. Both had the optimal run of the race in terms of cover. When you watch the tour de france you can't go five minutes without someone mentioning the importance of getting 'cover'. TDH had it yesterday
By:
Howellsy
When: 14 Oct 18 15:04
TDH had it yesterday and was flattered by it. I'm sure he'll go very close in the Guineas, but he's probably not as good as the visual impression yesterday's race created.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 14 Oct 18 15:19
too darn hot looked like he didnt even have a race yesterday, judging by the way he passed the line and
wanted to keep on running, havent seen quorto's races yet, i do know he was well thought of horse and
the money was down in ireland when it beat AVD. if you fancy quorto for next years guineas bit of a no-brainer to back it at 8/1 now, before waiting for the trials.
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Oct 18 15:28
Personally I'd rather have a decent confident bet at a much shorter price nearer the time than potentially throw away a sum on a horse who may not even get to the race. Even Gosden had problems with Roaring Lion leading up to the Guineas. Whether he would've won the Guineas or not is immaterial, he was obviously in better form afterwards. There are four runners I think are fast enough. Calyx and Ten Sovereigns being the better two but with stamina doubts, particularly over the latter. I'd side with Quorto at this stage of the two with no stamina questions, but I'm not interested in single figure prices this far ahead in these circumstances.
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Oct 18 15:36
too darn hot looked like he didnt even have a race yesterday, judging by the way he passed the line and
wanted to keep on running


This shows how subjective it all is. Watching the actual horse my view is that TDH couldn't get to the lead when asked in the hottest part of the race. It was when those in front began to slow that he got the upper hand and then they were both spent. Obviously looking at the antics of Dettori makes it look more impressive.
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Oct 18 15:58
A bad oversight for me not to mention Jash, who in finishing close behind Ten Sovereigns is up with Quorto and TDH. I do see him more as a sprinter though at the moment.
By:
impossible123
When: 14 Oct 18 16:07
No mater how one views The Dewhurst one cannot be impressed with the way he disposed of his adversaries despite the track not entirely suiting eg unbalanced in the dips, and only started racing properly with jest up the hill; the acceleration he showed was phenomenal. I think he's certainly the one to beat in The 2000G, and probably will be odds-on on the day, all things being equal, even with the presence of Quorto and/or Calyx.

AVD might run him closer, but I do not think he'll avenge defeat over 8f in The 2000G, longer trip perhaps. And softer ground may suit both horse better too, I believe.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 14 Oct 18 16:13
dont watch race videos to do form like most people do, wouldnt describe my race reading skills as exemplary,
just the impression i got from watching the race, frankie hes one of those jockeys always going to try and get a good position, the fact the horse didnt get the lead, was not important and the way he pulled it back
and sat waiting for the race to unfold and then pressed the turbo, wouldnt really pay much attention to that,
was it the trainer or the jockey said it got unbalanced due to the undulations of the track. the prices dont
interest me, still a race to look forward too.
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Oct 18 16:42
I meant TDH couldn't get past the front two when Dettori asked him for his effort in the hottest part of the race, when they were going their fastest, not that he couldn't take an early lead. It was only when Advertise and AVD slowed in the final furlong that TDH gained the upper hand and went away as the other two were spent. He was a fully deserved winner but I can't agree that he barely had a race, that was more the impression created by Dettori when he knows the race is firmly in the bag.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 14 Oct 18 19:23
An impressive win considering he took time to settle. Provided all goes well from now till early May, he'll take all the beating in the 2000gns.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 14 Oct 18 19:41
Thinking about what happens between now and Guineas day:

I wonder if Quorto might winter in Dubai (albeit without racing there -although Masar did race, disappointingly on dirt!).He will surely take in a trial in the Spring as he was scrubbed off early for the season.

Calyx will surely run in trial because he's been off with injury and they'll want to see how he shapes over at least 7 furlongs before he goes to the Guineas. AOB often sends 'em straight to Newmarket but if they're going the Guineas route with Ten Sovereigns they may well want to see him race over 7f beforehand.

I would n't be surprised if Too Darn Hot goes straight to the Guineas now -Gosden's post race comments suggest he does n't have the same wayward tendencies Roaring Lion had at a similar stage (he did n't compare them directly, just my interpretation).

My point really is there are plenty of opportunities for other to step up between now and May and 7/4 is awful short for a race over 6 months away
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 Oct 18 20:05
calyx has been injured and is trained by gosden who also trains the favourite, i'll be amazed if he even runs, john will have a word in prince khalids ear.

quorto is godolphin and although they did well with masar in the derby i can't see them winning the guineas anymore. plus the whole thing about running them in dubai beforehand seems like terrible preparation.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 Oct 18 20:07
My point really is there are plenty of opportunities for other to step up between now and May and 7/4 is awful short for a race over 6 months away

I used to think that, that in the guineas you concentrate on the unknown, but I've come to realize you should just go with the obvious. probably why it was called the last two year old race of the year, it's just a continuation of what has gone before, while the derby tends to be won by more late-developing types.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 Oct 18 20:11
maybe i picked the wrong race, should have read "too darn hot 2000 guineas" lol. Cry
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Oct 18 20:24
8/1, 33/1, 1/2, 15/8, 11/8, 40/1, 4/1, 14/1, 6/4, 3/1.

Starting prices of the last 10 Guineas winners. With three shorties beaten at 1/1, 6/4, 4/5.

Each of those results has to be judged on its own merits but unless you believe that TDH is already a well above average classic horse he has to be too short at this stage.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 Oct 18 20:33
well six of them were 4-1 or shorter, then.
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Oct 18 20:35
Yes but that's SP, so doesn't suggest it's usually beneficial to steam in 7 months in advance at odds of 7/4.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 Oct 18 20:36
I mean don't get me wrong I very rarely back anything at 5/4 let alone in a classic. except sometimes in racing you could spend too long trying to find an angle when the obvious answer is staring you in the face. I wouldn't back Too Darn Hot at 5/4 for the guineas.

the biggest obstacle to Too Darn Hot having a stellar career at three is surely his size- he is on the small side. Tenby was a very successful two year old and also had a good early three year old career, was made favourite for the derby and was stuffed,a race won by his later developing stablemate. just a word of caution.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 Oct 18 20:37
and tenby was on the small side, I should have added.
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Oct 18 20:52
LR, if closer to the race Ten Sovereigns, Calyx, Jash and Quorto have fallen by the wayside for one reason or another I would probably back TDH shorter than he is now if he's still looking good for the race. I just think there is still too much that can happen. Kingman started 6/4 with a huge reputation and after hammering his opponents in the Greenham in a fast time (did a bit too much imo). If TDH started evens looking good on the day of the race surely it would be better to lump on then? I wouldn't be crying too much thinking how I could've had 7/4 back in October.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 14 Oct 18 21:17
Idle Sunday evening so looked up last 10 Dewhurst winners...

Everyone remembers Frankel, Dawn Approach and Churchill (2/1 for Guineas after Dewhurst, 6/4 SP on the day) did the double.

War Command (10/1 after Dewhurst!, 8/1 SP on the day) and Air Force Blue (6/4 after Dewhurst, 4/5 SP on the day) blew out.

Belardo, Beethoven, Intense Focus, Parish Hall and US Navy Flag did n't run in the 2,000 guineas - though in the case of Beethoven and US Navy Flag that was by design.

Admittedly some of them were not anywhere near as impressive winners of the Dewhurst as Too Darn Hot but I think the price comparisons indicate it is better to wait, especially as they are SPs and there's a fair chance better odds than those were available on the morning of the 2,000 guineas.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 14 Oct 18 21:23
the only advantage I can see of such bets is that it ties up your money so you can't lose it on other things

it prolongs hope for a while Laugh
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