Forums

Horse Antepost

There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 215 comments are related to the topic:
Dewhurst Stakes (13th Oct)

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 5 of 6  •  Previous | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 215
By:
Figgis
When: 17 Oct 18 16:19
Well I have Western Hymn's best effort 12lbs behind Cracksman at Ascot. Western Hymn finished fourth in the Champion Stakes as a 3yo. I'd have Cracksman winning that race by at least 1.5 lengths. He's a far better horse than Western Hymn.
By:
Figgis
When: 17 Oct 18 16:29
If he's only as good as Western Hymn then surely he must be a lay at this price?
By:
brigust1
When: 17 Oct 18 16:34
Well I'm not going to be backing him at this price.
By:
brigust1
When: 17 Oct 18 21:36
So, F, you think Cracksman would have won Australia's Derby? I cannot have that for any money.
By:
Figgis
When: 17 Oct 18 22:01
No I don't but we're talking about horses aged only 3 and a few months. To pin an immature horse down by what they do in early June is silly (and Cracksman was more immature then the average Derby runner). I do think he'd have beaten Australia in the International and the Irish Champion Stakes when he was a better racehorse. Cracksman improved a few pounds, whereas Australia did not.
By:
Figgis
When: 17 Oct 18 22:02
*than the average Derby runner
By:
brigust1
When: 18 Oct 18 09:30
Good morning F. Where did Cracksman improve a few pounds? I don't get this beginning and end of season hype. Cracksman is doing what Cirrus des Aigles did. Win Group 1 races at the beginning of the season not targetted by the top horses and at the end of the season when the top horses have been prepared for the Arc etc and this is an afterthought. CDA couldn't win a top Group 1 in the heat of the season and neither could Cracksman. Group 1's the other top trainers have trained their horses for. No-one trains their best horses to win the Ganay or the Champion Stakes. They then end up with a higher rating than the horses who beat them in the eat of the season. It's nonsense.

I don't know if you remember Bristol de Mai last season. He ran in the Betfair Chase on heavy ground won by miles and was given a huge rating in the high 170's. Totally and absolutely ridiculous. He was bang fit, running on in November, on exceptional ground, against horses who had other major targets in mind and gets a ridiculous rating way above his ability. Had he been a flat horse they would have been mad not to retire him straight away like they did Harbinger.
By:
Figgis
When: 18 Oct 18 09:55
CDA couldn't win a top Group 1 in the heat of the season

You reckon So You Think, Snow Fairy, Midday and Nathaniel all ran below form in that year's Champion Stakes in a race run in a fast time on ground that was really good to firm?
By:
Figgis
When: 18 Oct 18 10:14
Most people are flexible in their views on immature horses. Most punters would not point to what a horse did on only its third start in a Derby and try to hold the rest of its form down by that one run. With such preconceived stubborn ideas Cracksman can't win. He's been said to be no better than Western Hymn and certainly not a bet at the price even in view of the opposition. If Cracksman bolts up by 5 lengths on Saturday then most posters who would've made the WH comparison would hold their hands up and say they got it wrong. We know in this instance, however, that the win will be downgraded due to others not being targeted at the race. As I said, Cracksman can't win on these terms so it is all pointless.
By:
brigust1
When: 18 Oct 18 10:47
Yes I do reckon Snow Fairy and So You Think left their Champion Stakes at Longchamp. That's possibly why CDA started at 14/1 because on form he wasn't the likely winner.

You should follow your own rules F. You are now judging Western Hymn on his later form. He wasn't reliable and wasn't bred well enough to go to stud. Cracksman is saved by the fact he is by Frankel. His 3 year old form wasn't bad winning a Group 2 in France beating a horse as good as Avilius beat in his Group 2 in France before winning the Champion Stakes. When WH ran in the Champion Stakes he beat CDA on his ideal ground in a race he would not have been laid out for. His 4 year old form from 4 races was a defeat of Postponed a third beaten 2+ lengths in the Prince of Wales Stakes beaten by a horse winning his first Group 1 after being placed in the Champion Stakes the year before on very soft ground, (Sound familiar?). Then a third in the Eclipse to horse JG has always rated above Cracksman, Golden Horn.

The similarities are there. Do I think Cracksman is Western Hymn. Well They would have looked very similar at the end of their 4 year old season. Cracksman just has the edge by virtue of his 2 Group 1 wins however the substance of both is somewhat dubious. It just depends on the quality of horses they are running against etc.
By:
brigust1
When: 18 Oct 18 10:48
*as good as Cracksman beat
By:
brigust1
When: 18 Oct 18 11:08
I actually think the Champion Stakes will be very interesting. Crystal Ocean has Cracksman form and so does Capri. Both look like they will handle the ground and the trip and although Capri has run in France recently he has had a pretty easy season and it looks like Stoute has deliberately aimed Crystal Ocean at this so there should be an ideal opportunity to see how much Cracksman has improved and possibly how good he really is.
By:
Figgis
When: 18 Oct 18 11:25
Snow Fairy and So You Think left their Champion Stakes at Longchamp

It's pretty obvious to even Danedream's biggest fans that Snow Fairy and SYT didn't give their true running at Longchamp. SYT was always considered a doubtful stayer anyway.

You are now judging Western Hymn on his later form

I'm judging him on his whole career. Never put up anything higher than a Gp3 figure.

Cracksman is saved by the fact he is by Frankel

That would only be the view of someone with an obsession to downgrade anything to do with Frankel. Most of us would judge Cracksman on his racecourse performances. Personally I have never give a sh1te about who a horse's father was.
By:
Figgis
When: 18 Oct 18 11:33
When WH ran in the Champion Stakes he beat CDA on his ideal ground in a race he would not have been laid out for

I'm willing to accept most views that disagree with mine as far as racing goes as a lot of form is open to opinion. However anyone who can seriously suggest that CDA at the age of 8 and beaten more than 6 lengths by Noble Mission and only a head in front of Sheikhzayedroad ran anything like his earlier form is obviously talking out of their ****.
By:
brigust1
When: 18 Oct 18 11:39
Danedream ran a huge time in the Arc so anyone chasing that would show the results when running again 13 days later. I remember saying I thought Frankel suffered in the St James Palace Stakes because he ran hard in the 2000 Guineas and it probably left it's mark and you agreed. 

How can you judge Western Hymn on his whole career against a horse who has been sparing placed ffs. Get a grip.

If you don't think breeding is important when horses Western Hymn's sire is available at 30K and Cracksman's sire is available at 175k and that isn't important whether horses stay in training or are retired to stud then that's for you to figure out.
By:
Figgis
When: 18 Oct 18 11:48
How can you judge Western Hymn on his whole career against a horse who has been sparing placed ffs

Quite simply because the horse sparingly placed has already run way faster than the horse who had a whole career to better it. I think the question should be how can you negatively hold down a horse who has only ran sparingly Grin

I never said breeding wasn't important in the scheme of things. I said it wasn't important to me when I'm looking out how fast horses have run. I don't think 'well this horse looks quite slow but I did quite like his daddy so I will upgrade him'. Anyone who thinks punters would be interested in increasing stud fees has to be paranoid and off their rocker.
By:
brigust1
When: 18 Oct 18 11:54
I cannot remember saying CDA was running to his best form but he was running to a supposed highish rating that year. And my mate the Sheikh ran on at the death through beaten horses, that does happen and CDA did start favourite that day so I think a lot of others were betting out of their **** if you ask me.
By:
Figgis
When: 18 Oct 18 12:00
It all boils down to your view before the race. Mine is I think Cracksman is a cracking bet even at the shortish price. There is only one horse who can get reasonably close to him and that is Crystal Ocean. However I'm not sure he'll be at peak form and even if he is I'd still have Cracksman to beat him a length or two. The rest won't see Cracksman's anus for mud. You think Cracksman is a poor bet.
By:
brigust1
When: 18 Oct 18 12:16
You are simply being your usual argumentative self Figgis. I was comparing the way Gosden spoke about Cracksman, and still speaks about him. The way he has placed him when compared with Western Hymn. It is almost identical. Plus the fact that it is possible it may not have been financially viable to retire WH at the end of his 4 year old career.
All I am saying is their career paths are similar.

Western Hymn ran one and won once in a maiden as a two year old just like Cracksman.
Western Hymn ran 6 times including the Derby and ending in the Champion Stakes just like Cracksman.
Western Hymn went to France after the Derby and won a Group 2 just like Cracksman.
Western Hymn ran 4 times as a 4 year old winning his first two then being placed in the Prince of Wales just like Cracksman.

It may just have been the quality of the opposition that divides them but we really don't know for sure whether being beaten 9 lengths by Australia following a bad journey is better or worse than being beaten a length by Wings of Eagles. Or whether being beaten just over 2 lengths by Free Eagle is better or worse than being beaten just over 2 lengths by Poets Word. Or whether beating Postponed narrowly is better or worse than beating Salouen narrowly. Or whether beating Army Bulletin easily is better or worse than beating Atavilius easily or Wrens Day.

I think Cracksman is a poor bet at the price. I have already backed him at better prices. I am just being realistic. His form this season has question marks hanging over it and JG's planning doesn't instil confidence in his ability. Even consider JG said Enable suffered from a high temperature and off her food after Kempton so surely that would have brought Cracksman even more into the picture.
By:
Figgis
When: 18 Oct 18 12:23
Danedream ran a huge time in the Arc so anyone chasing that would show the results when running again 13 days later. I remember saying I thought Frankel suffered in the St James Palace Stakes because he ran hard in the 2000 Guineas and it probably left it's mark and you agreed.

Wouldn't disagree with the bit about Frankel. As even though the jockey got criticised, and admittedly it wasn't the best move, I had been half expecting Frankel to run below par immediately after the Guineas effort. The Danedream case is different. As even if you believe the rest were all on form but were killed off through chasing the pace in the Arc (I don't but will go along with it for argument's sake), it means they didn't have the opportunity to run their race so it wouldn't have adversely affected them. It is when horses are pushed to run to their max that they suffer physically. Chasing a too fast pace will affect their ability to perform to their best on that day, but it won't harm them for their next effort.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 18 Oct 18 12:29
Hi Laurie,

Welcome back, even if it's only temporary.

I'm not going to get embroiled in the Frankel discussion, i think we 'killed' that one several years ago when we were friendly adversaries Wink

As far as Cracksman goes, i was/am always of the opinon connections knew Enable had the beating of him and posted as such several times. The champion field is not particularly strong now with several missing that would have made it interesting and certainly more competitive.

He's the rightful favourite with a lot in his favour, but i wouldn't back him now at odds on, nor did i fancy him before anyway. Mind you he won't have everything his own way with Crystal Ocean in the field who has won on soft and stays well. Good luck.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 18 Oct 18 12:38
cracksman back at the track where he produced his list topping rating last year hopefully can murder the
opposition, see capri has lowly rating in this race at 118, has had a very light campaign so far this season
and im wondering if that horse can possibly steal the runners up spot in the race, the battle for 2nd place
is the most interesting aspect of the race for me, if cracksman runs to his best form and wins easily.

goodluck all
By:
Figgis
When: 18 Oct 18 12:40
I was comparing the way Gosden spoke about Cracksman, and still speaks about him

I don't really care how Gosden speaks of him. If you are asking me is Cracksman an all time great? No he isn't and he's never done anything to suggest that to me. I do believe he could've enhanced his reputation with an Arc win but Gosden was too cautious. My opinion of Cracksman is he was no better than most Derby placed horses in the early part of his career. I reckon in the latter part of last season he improved to be a horse capable of putting up a better than average Derby winning effort. But still nothing to go overboard about. I rate Authorized, for instance, higher.

My view is up to and including the CC he hadn't improved at all in real terms. By that I mean he received 4lbs in last year's Champion Stakes on the assumption that's how much he would improve at 4. In my view he stood still. It was the POW performance that showed me he'd finally come to hand. I have him improving not just the 4lbs but a total of 8lbs, which isn't really that unusual. But you have to remember I probably didn't rate him as high as Timeform, etc, for his Champion Stakes win. In this instance I don't care what Poet's Word beat before. That was a top class effort on the clock and the rest were hammered accordingly.

That still doesn't put him up with the all time fastest for me. But it does make him a proper Gp1 4yo. A horse capable of winning a typical running of this event, never mind a below par one.
By:
Figgis
When: 18 Oct 18 12:49
It's a pity Cloth Of Stars isn't running here and we could get an idea of where Cracksman might've finished in the Arc. Although I'm sure Gosden would still say he wouldn't have handled the firm ground (actually good) at Longchamp.
By:
brigust1
When: 18 Oct 18 12:59
Hi Andrew good to hear from you. I am only here this week myself visiting the physio for one. I suspected Cracksman would miss the Arc as we neared the day so I backed him on occasion for the Champion Stakes not really knowing the opposition but I wouldn't back him at the price today. He does deserve to be favourite of course but he only has last seasons Champion to go on. JG has completely stumped me this time. Again if, as he said, Enable had a high temperature and was off her food after Kempton then that surely would have brought him into the mix. It simply does not make any sense at all. I think every other trainer in the country would have been pleased to run him.
Fox Power won for me but the price was dreadful. 
Contrary to popular belief I am a Frankel fan and had a letter in the Racing Post praising him after his Sussex Stakes win it's just the hype that gets me.


I don't know. They went fast in Danedream's Arc and both Snow Fairy and So You Think would have beaten Golden Horn or Enable on their times that day plus they were running on and not dropping away. I certainly think it mattered considering it was less than 2 weeks later.  The one thing I do consider as far as time is concerned is the effect it has on the horse's next run. I have constantly heard Willo say this or that horse ran a big time last time and then watched it get beaten.

If Capri runs I think that may be a better guide because I think Cloth of Stars just doesn't seem able to win.
By:
brigust1
When: 18 Oct 18 13:03
Seven declared and Cracksman wearing blinkers. Crystal Ocean and Capri both run but Roaring Lion goes for the QE11.
By:
Figgis
When: 18 Oct 18 13:10
If Capri runs I think that may be a better guide

By my reckoning Capri in finishing 5th in the Arc didn't even run as fast (performance wise) as he did in last year's Leger. He hasn't trained on. Which is probably why O'Brien has hardly raced him this year. Maybe O'Brien can work some magic on him this late in the season but I'm expecting him to get well and truly stuffed.
By:
brigust1
When: 18 Oct 18 13:19
Hi Andrew I just messaged you. Take care. Have a good day.
By:
brigust1
When: 18 Oct 18 14:26
If you are right about Capri F this looks like another 2 horse race. It's rubbish really but it is what I call an afterthought race. The kind of race no trainer would put in the top 5 races they would like to win.
By:
Figgis
When: 18 Oct 18 15:19
Sure, it's a 2 horse race, as long as the main 2 horses run their race. Some Gp1 races certainly run deeper than this one in quality, which definitely lacks depth. But when you come right down to it in most Gp1s there are usually only about 2 or sometimes 3 genuine all age standard Gp1 winners in the lineup. These races become more competitive when the best horses are in danger of being over the top, or when we have a bunch of horses just on the fringe of Gp1 level.
By:
brigust1
When: 20 Oct 18 18:30
Well Figgis you were right. I hope you cashed in. I couldn't back him at the short price but I did back him before the Arc because I thought in the back of my mind he wouldn't run.
But doesn't the hype drive you mad? Prat Chapman shouting about him being the best horse in the world ffs? He wasn't fast enough to win anything decent during either season on proper racing ground and now they are calling him the greatest in the world. Lots of horses win the Champion Stakes and win during the season as well, not this horse because he is too slow. Would you pay a high price to breed from him?
By:
Figgis
When: 20 Oct 18 18:53
Brigust, yes I backed him. The ground was kicking up but was only good to soft today, nothing like as soft as last year when he won, that's evident from the times. I think following the POW he would've won any 10f-12f European Gp1 race this year they could've aimed him at, some more easily than others, not that I'm saying he could've won the lot together as there is only limited petrol in the tank. I still believe he would've won this year's Arc given luck in running and I think he would've won it comfortably. I don't think he's an exceptional Gp1 4yo but he's certainly not a poor one.
By:
brigust1
When: 20 Oct 18 19:57
I couldn't agree less. He was too slow to win a genuine Group 1 on fast ground and that is what flat racing is all about. Throughout his whole career, at Epsom and the Curragh and at Ascot he showed that lack of speed. And that is JG's opinion, not mine. They didn't want to risk him even in a soft Gr1 if they could find it because he was too fragile mentally and too slow.
JG pulled a masterstroke kidding people into thinking exactly way you think without having to deliver. A masterstroke.
By:
Figgis
When: 20 Oct 18 20:01
JG pulled a masterstroke kidding people into thinking exactly way you think without having to deliver. A masterstroke

Fair enough, that's your opinion. But your opinion was also that he was a poor bet Wink
By:
brigust1
When: 20 Oct 18 20:20
No Figgis that is not my opinion. I had already backed him at a lot bigger thanks. Had I not I may have backed him at the price he was because I always backed him. Who knows. But as I had already backed him I wasn't prepared to back him again.
The truth is Cracksman couldn't win a Group 1 in the heat of the season when required and against not necessarily tough opposition. And JG wasn't prepared to race him again after the POW unless the ground slowed down the opposition. They are the facts and they are undisputed.

He was a nice horse I followed closely through his career and had some fun but he was slow and that showed in all his races including the POW. He had class and stamina and that saved him but he would always have been vulnerable to speed.
By:
Figgis
When: 20 Oct 18 20:23
The truth is Cracksman could've won by 20 lengths today and you wouldn't have budged, we all know that by now.
By:
brigust1
When: 20 Oct 18 20:33
No Figgis the truth is that neither the owner nor the trainer think what you think. That is the truth of the matter.
By:
Figgis
When: 20 Oct 18 20:38
the truth is that neither the owner nor the trainer think what you think

Ok, I'll expect you to go along with everything trainers and owners think in future. Now we know where we are Wink
By:
brigust1
When: 20 Oct 18 20:54
At the end of the day, in this type of circumstance, you have to trust the trainer knows what is best. I thought he should have run in the Arc but JG said the ground was too fast for him. He said the same about the King George. Under these circumstances, this isn't hype. Had he said the horse wasn't ready or suffering from something then I may have thought about it but all the evidence shows that on top of the ground he is vulnerable to quicker horses and needs slow ground to slow them down and bring his stride and strength into the equation.

It is alright for you because you can sit back and listen to the ratings guys and commentators who think they know more than the trainer.
By:
Figgis
When: 20 Oct 18 20:59
It is alright for you because you can sit back and listen to the ratings guy

Seems to be you obsessing over other people's ratings. I do my own thanks Wink
Page 5 of 6  •  Previous | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com