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23 Sep 18
19:59
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07 Sep 15
The principal protagonists Too Darn Hot, Quorto and Sangarius are destined for this, according to their trainers, If so, a dress rehearsal for the 2000G next May, I believe; the prices are 13/8, 11/4 and 13/2 respectively. Let's hope all show up on race day for a stonking contest.
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Might have something to do with the little matter that he only encountered good to firm ground 3 times and for 2 of those there was a headwind. Would you also like me to explain why the US flag moved during Apollo 11? 
Fast times are not only produced on good to firm ground fgs. In fact horses are often unlikely to let themselves down fully on really fast ground. Frankel ran 14 times just squeaking above average on only 2 occasions. Sea the Stars smashed average time 3 times in his 6 runs as a three year old.
In my opinion, Frankel had the perfect conditions and the perfect running style on many occasions to achieve regular fast times but dailed to deliver. He wasn't hostage to pace or his running style but he just never came up with the goods. It ended up with Timeform selecting ONE furlong in the Queen Anne Stakes to make the ridiculous claim he could have been a top class sprinter.
In my opinion, Frankel had the perfect conditions and the perfect running style on many occasions to achieve regular fast times but dailed to deliver. He wasn't hostage to pace or his running style but he just never came up with the goods. It ended up with Timeform selecting ONE furlong in the Queen Anne Stakes to make the ridiculous claim he could have been a top class sprinter.
In fact horses are often unlikely to let themselves down fully on really fast ground
Yes I've heard this sort of talk before. Maybe that's true for slow horses, mudlarks and crocks. Fact remains that every single record time was achieved on ground at least good to firm.
In my opinion, Frankel had the perfect conditions and the perfect running style on many occasions to achieve regular fast times
That may be your opinion. An examination of the facts tell a different story. It is pointless having an argument with somebody who refers to record or outstandingly fast times as a true reflection of time performance. As you have said many times yourself you disregard times. Your methodology explains why.
Yes I've heard this sort of talk before. Maybe that's true for slow horses, mudlarks and crocks. Fact remains that every single record time was achieved on ground at least good to firm.
In my opinion, Frankel had the perfect conditions and the perfect running style on many occasions to achieve regular fast times
That may be your opinion. An examination of the facts tell a different story. It is pointless having an argument with somebody who refers to record or outstandingly fast times as a true reflection of time performance. As you have said many times yourself you disregard times. Your methodology explains why.
Maybe we should be lauding Mister Baileys as the best Guineas winner? 
I am afraid that claim is completely bogus Figgis. Not all course records are achieved on good to firm ground. In 2012, Frankel's year, 27 course records were held on good ground around the country. Harbinger achieved his highest rating and supposedly best performance at Ascot in the King George on 'good' ground. So it was not as impossible as you suggest.
In 2012, Frankel's year, 27 course records were held on good ground around the country
Specifically which course records?
Harbinger achieved his highest rating and supposedly best performance at Ascot in the King George on 'good' ground
So Harbinger achieved his highest rating on supposedly good ground. Has this suddenly turned into an argument for Frankel's ratings?
Specifically which course records?
Harbinger achieved his highest rating and supposedly best performance at Ascot in the King George on 'good' ground
So Harbinger achieved his highest rating on supposedly good ground. Has this suddenly turned into an argument for Frankel's ratings?
In fact 23 of those 27 course records were achieved on good ground at Group 1 courses.
I think the fact that Harbinger achieved his highest rating and best performance whilst breaking the Ascot course record onGOOG ground is very relevant, thank you. Nothing at all to do with his or Frankel's rating. That is a completely different issue.
With reference to Mister Bailey's being the best 2000 Guineas winner because of the time he achieved completely blows your assertions about the relevance of Frankel's times out of the water.
With reference to Mister Bailey's being the best 2000 Guineas winner because of the time he achieved completely blows your assertions about the relevance of Frankel's times out of the water.
In fact 23 of those 27 course records were achieved on good ground at Group 1 courses
Which ones do you believe to have been run on truly good ground?
Which ones do you believe to have been run on truly good ground?
With reference to Mister Bailey's being the best 2000 Guineas winner because of the time he achieved completely blows your assertions about the relevance of Frankel's times out of the water. Laugh
Baffling. I would've thought it obviously showed that using record times is bollocks.
Baffling. I would've thought it obviously showed that using record times is bollocks.
How many do you think have been run on truly good to firm ground? The CoC's often don't even know the best place on the course to be.
I agree about record times and in fact all times. They can be a factor of course but the variables are very inconclusive. That is exactly why I asked about your assertions with regard to Franke. If times are not trustworthy how can selective times be trustworthy unless they are selected with an aim in mind? It just does not figure with me.
I agree about record times and in fact all times. They can be a factor of course but the variables are very inconclusive. That is exactly why I asked about your assertions with regard to Franke. If times are not trustworthy how can selective times be trustworthy unless they are selected with an aim in mind? It just does not figure with me.
Actually when I rated Frankel at Doncaster on his second start the figure seemed so high that I assumed I'd gone too big with the allowance. I also wondered if Cecil would've started a horse with such speed over 1m on softish ground, and at that stage thought he must be more of a Derby type. I downgraded every other race on the card just to give Frankel a still high but more believable rating. After his 2yo career I didn't make a penny on him so have no interest in hyping him. I'd backed him at decent prices for the Derby.
I still thought it was possible he might not train on but then in the Guineas he not only confirmed the original Doncaster figure but improved on it. Even then I wondered if a horse this fast and with apparent headstrong tendencies might burn himself out but there was none of it. When he began as a 4yo I still had preconceived ideas that he was very unlikely to improve with age, admittedly he didn't need to, but then had to revise view that after the Lockinge. Then he showed he'd improved the full wfa in the Queen Anne and confirmed that we were witnessing a racing phenomenon (not a term I would use lightly).
He might not be everybody's favourite racehorse and some people prefer horses that go for the Derby or Arc, but as far as speed goes he was unsurpassed.
I still thought it was possible he might not train on but then in the Guineas he not only confirmed the original Doncaster figure but improved on it. Even then I wondered if a horse this fast and with apparent headstrong tendencies might burn himself out but there was none of it. When he began as a 4yo I still had preconceived ideas that he was very unlikely to improve with age, admittedly he didn't need to, but then had to revise view that after the Lockinge. Then he showed he'd improved the full wfa in the Queen Anne and confirmed that we were witnessing a racing phenomenon (not a term I would use lightly).
He might not be everybody's favourite racehorse and some people prefer horses that go for the Derby or Arc, but as far as speed goes he was unsurpassed.
funny how brigust was bigging up a son of frankel and rightly so (cracksman) yet doesn't seem to be a fan of his daddy? 
commentator at the end of frankel's second start "and he might just have a touch of quality about him"
must count as one of the biggest understatements of all time.
must count as one of the biggest understatements of all time.
I am a fan of his daddy actually LR it's just the ratings and hype I am not a fan of. All the hype about his 2000 Guineas when it was arguably the worst since ratings began. His ratings do not add up and when you ask the compilers they say it is because the 'probability' of a champion is high. Utter claptrap. And the horses he beat included a Thirsk Hunt Cup winner, a German 2000 Guineas winner and a horse that took 40 runs to win his 1st Group 1 then couldn't win one in the heat of the season which was targetted. Hype. Just hype really.
Added to that the Ballydoyle position and the Official Handicapper rating his win in the Queen Anne the best they have ever rated yet still cannot tell you which horse in the race ran to form. And they ave Frankel an extra 3lb.
Added to that the Ballydoyle position and the Official Handicapper rating his win in the Queen Anne the best they have ever rated yet still cannot tell you which horse in the race ran to form. And they ave Frankel an extra 3lb.
Brigust, now you are truly excelling yourself. Firstly, people who think course record times are of any significance when it comes to judging the merits of horses are accorded no credibility whatsoever by those who have even a relatively sophisticated grasp of the sport. By saying that, you undermine any other points you make. Secondly, and more subjectively, Excelebration was a genuine 125 horse, who won 2 group 1s convincingly that season. In the Queen Anne, he tried to match strides with Frankel and was beaten by 11 lengths. The way I see it, and I understand why some may disagree, is that a 125 horse was, say, 20 lbs inferior to Frankel when trying to actually take him on. The fact that a few other horses ran on from behind and finished close to Excelebration should not hold down Frankel's rating that day. Had Side Glance been upsides Frankel 3 out and tried to match strides, he would probably have been dead at the one pole and tailed off.
Brigust you argumentative old sod. Surprised you haven`t mentioned the Brigadier yet.
Don`t have too much on Cracksman Saturday.
Don`t have too much on Cracksman Saturday.
Hi Felt you old mugger. I backed him before the Arc to cover the money I lost on him in that race. I really worry he is not very good really but if Roaring Lion doesn't run it is not much of a race, like the others he won.
Howellsy I was only questioning Figgis's point about Frankel's times. I do think course records are significant in conditions type races considering Nijinsky, Mill Reef, Brigadier Gerard, Dancing Brave and Sea The Stars all broke course records but the supposed and reputed fastest horse in history never broke a one. That's all.
And your point about Excelebration is well founded but your knowledge of horses being broken in a furlong is limited I'm afraid. Maybe Excellebration is a 125 horse, as you say, but that is not what he ran to in the Queen Anne, like it or not. And that is what ratings are based upon the facts not the supposition. According to other rating's operators Excellebration ran a stone below form. That would mean he ran to 111. Add to that the 22lbs for the 11 lengths and a 3lb bonus and we have 136. So where does the 140 official rating come from or the 147 Timeform rating? You decide.
Howellsy I was only questioning Figgis's point about Frankel's times. I do think course records are significant in conditions type races considering Nijinsky, Mill Reef, Brigadier Gerard, Dancing Brave and Sea The Stars all broke course records but the supposed and reputed fastest horse in history never broke a one. That's all.
And your point about Excelebration is well founded but your knowledge of horses being broken in a furlong is limited I'm afraid. Maybe Excellebration is a 125 horse, as you say, but that is not what he ran to in the Queen Anne, like it or not. And that is what ratings are based upon the facts not the supposition. According to other rating's operators Excellebration ran a stone below form. That would mean he ran to 111. Add to that the 22lbs for the 11 lengths and a 3lb bonus and we have 136. So where does the 140 official rating come from or the 147 Timeform rating? You decide.
Brigust, I didn't say Excel ran to 125 in the QA. I said that's what happened to a 125 horse when trying to match strides with Frankel 3 out. What I'm saying is that if you can do that to a 125 horse, you've surely got to be a 140+ horse. Otherwise it's not fair to compare Frankel with horses like Secretariat who did manage to crush rivals in a very attritional Belmont by setting an unmatchable gallop early on. I think detractors are using horses like Side Glance to hold the form down because of where they finished, but those horses simply weren't close enough to the pace to be properly evaluated in relation to Frankel. Excel was. The Guineas demonstrated what happens when a top class horse runs an 'American' style race. Casamento, a group 2/3 horse, was off the bridle after 3 furlongs and beaten after 4.`
Brigust. Did the Brigadier ever run a faster time than Frankel?? From memory Guineas/Sussex/Qe2 /Band H /Juddmonte he as slower on each occasion.
Add to that the 22lbs for the 11 lengths
The BHA may use 2lbs per length but I certainly don't, never have, and I don't think Timeform do either. We can say it's all about opinions, but a study of times, results and distances can quickly prove that 2lbs per length greatly overestimates the effect of weight. There was a group of opinion not so long ago that weight doesn't matter at all, or hardly matters. This is obviously nonsense but it stems from the fact that the BHA overestimates the effect of weight. 3lbs per length over 1m is nearer the mark, which might not sound a big difference but is a great deal when we're talking about a matter of 11 lengths.
The BHA may use 2lbs per length but I certainly don't, never have, and I don't think Timeform do either. We can say it's all about opinions, but a study of times, results and distances can quickly prove that 2lbs per length greatly overestimates the effect of weight. There was a group of opinion not so long ago that weight doesn't matter at all, or hardly matters. This is obviously nonsense but it stems from the fact that the BHA overestimates the effect of weight. 3lbs per length over 1m is nearer the mark, which might not sound a big difference but is a great deal when we're talking about a matter of 11 lengths.
I really worry he is not very good really but if Roaring Lion doesn't run it is not much of a race, like the others he won
Brigust, assuming he's not pulled out again with some excuse, have the biggest bet you've ever had on Cracksman. His POW effort certainly wasn't up with the best 10f efforts I've seen, and I still think he would've been seen in a better light over the 12f of the Arc, but it was good enough to take any of the last five runnings of this event. Even if Roaring Lion runs he would need a career peak. Cracksman ought to be odds on
Brigust, assuming he's not pulled out again with some excuse, have the biggest bet you've ever had on Cracksman. His POW effort certainly wasn't up with the best 10f efforts I've seen, and I still think he would've been seen in a better light over the 12f of the Arc, but it was good enough to take any of the last five runnings of this event. Even if Roaring Lion runs he would need a career peak. Cracksman ought to be odds on
That is a very good point GeoffM. The facts are less easy even considering now that racecourses have made alterations to their surfaces, fresh ground is retained top the top races and there are movable rails. When BG was running there were concrete rails so you had what you had. To provide better ground the grass cover was maintained whereas nowadays they cut the grass even during meetings. But the facts are there are very few possible comparisons. The only possibilities are the 2000 Guineas, St James Palace Stakes, Sussex Stakes, QE11 Stakes, Lockinge and Juddmonte International (Benson & Hedges Gold Cup).
In the 2000 Guineas Frankel ran faster but he did tear off whereas BG sat behind the pace and finished. In the St James Palace BG ran on heavy ground. In the Sussex Stakes BG ran on soft ground. In the QE11 the races were run around the bend not on the straight course Frankel ran on. In the Lockinge BG was carrying 5lbs more than Frankel.
The only race I can get any sort of handle on is the Juddmonte. Frankel ran the 1 mile 2 furlongs and 56 yards in 2 min 6.59 secs. Roberto who won the Juddmonte (Benson & Hedges) ran the further distance of 1 mile 2 furlongs and 110 yards (54 yards or quarter of a furlong) further than Frankel in 2 minutes 7.1 seconds. Given that Frankel ran the last furlong in 12.13 secs, a quarter of that is 3.04 secs meaning Roberto ran the Frankel Juddmonte in 2 minutes 4.06 secs. Brigadier Gerard carrying 2lbs more than Frankel was 3 lengths in 2nd. Three lengths is equivalent to 0.5 secs so BG ran Frankel's Juddmonte in 2 minute 4.56 secs carrying 2lbs more. That would put BG 12 lengths in front of Frankel.
Still believe in times yeah?
In the 2000 Guineas Frankel ran faster but he did tear off whereas BG sat behind the pace and finished. In the St James Palace BG ran on heavy ground. In the Sussex Stakes BG ran on soft ground. In the QE11 the races were run around the bend not on the straight course Frankel ran on. In the Lockinge BG was carrying 5lbs more than Frankel.
The only race I can get any sort of handle on is the Juddmonte. Frankel ran the 1 mile 2 furlongs and 56 yards in 2 min 6.59 secs. Roberto who won the Juddmonte (Benson & Hedges) ran the further distance of 1 mile 2 furlongs and 110 yards (54 yards or quarter of a furlong) further than Frankel in 2 minutes 7.1 seconds. Given that Frankel ran the last furlong in 12.13 secs, a quarter of that is 3.04 secs meaning Roberto ran the Frankel Juddmonte in 2 minutes 4.06 secs. Brigadier Gerard carrying 2lbs more than Frankel was 3 lengths in 2nd. Three lengths is equivalent to 0.5 secs so BG ran Frankel's Juddmonte in 2 minute 4.56 secs carrying 2lbs more. That would put BG 12 lengths in front of Frankel.
Still believe in times yeah?
And don't forget Geoff M the Juddmonte course was renewed and relaid and the first time they ran on it was in 2009 where Sea The Stars broke the course record and at least 2 other course records were broken at the same meeting.
Figgis Timeform showed their calculations for the Queen Anne Stakes on the Morning Line on the following Saturday. They discounted both Excellebration and Side Glance as running below form and rated the race through Indomito rated 115. Frankel was rated 147 by beating Indomito by 12.25 lengths which was equivalent to 32lbs or 2.61lbs per length. So I wrote to them and asked what rating BG should have for beating Sparkler rated 129 by 6 lengths giving him 7lbs in course record time. In my book using their calculations that equates to 152. I had expected them to say they had changed there rating methods but they said they still rated the same but the 'probability' of a champion was high now.
Figgis Timeform showed their calculations for the Queen Anne Stakes on the Morning Line on the following Saturday. They discounted both Excellebration and Side Glance as running below form and rated the race through Indomito rated 115. Frankel was rated 147 by beating Indomito by 12.25 lengths which was equivalent to 32lbs or 2.61lbs per length. So I wrote to them and asked what rating BG should have for beating Sparkler rated 129 by 6 lengths giving him 7lbs in course record time. In my book using their calculations that equates to 152. I had expected them to say they had changed there rating methods but they said they still rated the same but the 'probability' of a champion was high now.
I do think he should win Figgis but he is very short now. His last 2 runs were not great and JG is reaching for cheekpieces plus I am still concerned he didn't run in the Arc. That doesn't add up for me. I have backed him at a lot bigger than he is now and will settle for that.
Frankel ran the 1 mile 2 furlongs and 56 yards
He actually ran 1m 2f 88yds.
Roberto who won the Juddmonte (Benson & Hedges) ran the further distance of 1 mile 2 furlongs and 110 yards (54 yards or quarter of a furlong) further than Frankel in 2 minutes 7.1 seconds
The distance hasn't been changed. The 110 yards was merely a guess, like so many things in racing back then.
He actually ran 1m 2f 88yds.
Roberto who won the Juddmonte (Benson & Hedges) ran the further distance of 1 mile 2 furlongs and 110 yards (54 yards or quarter of a furlong) further than Frankel in 2 minutes 7.1 seconds
The distance hasn't been changed. The 110 yards was merely a guess, like so many things in racing back then.
His last 2 runs were not great and JG is reaching for cheekpieces
I don't think he's a great by any means, and the ground at Ascot last year surely flattered him, but his last run was a lot better than it might've looked and worthy of comfortably winning a typical Gp1 over this trip. As for Gosden, I can only think that he genuinely believes that the horse needs soft ground. He was going on about the ground being fast for TDH though and it didn't matter a jot. If TDH had been beaten on Saturday I'm sure he'd have blamed the ground, whatever the real reason.
I don't think he's a great by any means, and the ground at Ascot last year surely flattered him, but his last run was a lot better than it might've looked and worthy of comfortably winning a typical Gp1 over this trip. As for Gosden, I can only think that he genuinely believes that the horse needs soft ground. He was going on about the ground being fast for TDH though and it didn't matter a jot. If TDH had been beaten on Saturday I'm sure he'd have blamed the ground, whatever the real reason.
According to the Racing Post the distance was 1 mile 2 furlongs and 56 yards. Believe who you want.
And that's a bit rich about the old FIXED distances. Nowadays moving the rails they have no clue how far the races are really. That is why Timeform kicked off about the times a few years ago and it was agreed they had gotten all of the distances wrong.
Prompted by the HBF (horse bettor's forum) all distances at flat courses have been remeasured. It had been noticed that some courses were producing times way out of line with standard and thus distances may not have been correct. In particular, the brand new all weather course at Newcastle produced inconsistent results per furlong. In that example it was found that some of the starts were way out of line with what was published.
And that's a bit rich about the old FIXED distances. Nowadays moving the rails they have no clue how far the races are really. That is why Timeform kicked off about the times a few years ago and it was agreed they had gotten all of the distances wrong.
Prompted by the HBF (horse bettor's forum) all distances at flat courses have been remeasured. It had been noticed that some courses were producing times way out of line with standard and thus distances may not have been correct. In particular, the brand new all weather course at Newcastle produced inconsistent results per furlong. In that example it was found that some of the starts were way out of line with what was published.
I'm hardly a great time expert by any means (or any kind of expert for that matter) but from my limited knowledge of track records, it nearly always seems to be when the ground is rattling fast. if frankel didn't have those extreme conditions then perhaps he couldn't break those records.
if you are talking about breaking track records, then surely you have to directly compare frankel with the holders of those records. is he a worse horse than them? if not then the track records bit is surely irrelevant.
I like that brigust is being contrary, and I think there's too much fanboy stuff on some of these forums, for example the nauseating thread on another forum "why frankel will rule the world" about how he's supposedly going to become the dominant sire as well. which certainly hasn't transpired.
however I've always felt since his doncaster win that he's something extraordinary on the track at least. I was watching that race live down the betting shop and when he came there on the bridle the hairs on my neck stood up. that doesn't happen very often.
even a mate of mine, who doesn't watch or follow racing, he saw a replay of frankel's sussex stakes win when he beat canford cliffs and was shocked. a horse that can do that isn't an ordinary horse.
if you are talking about breaking track records, then surely you have to directly compare frankel with the holders of those records. is he a worse horse than them? if not then the track records bit is surely irrelevant.
I like that brigust is being contrary, and I think there's too much fanboy stuff on some of these forums, for example the nauseating thread on another forum "why frankel will rule the world" about how he's supposedly going to become the dominant sire as well. which certainly hasn't transpired.
however I've always felt since his doncaster win that he's something extraordinary on the track at least. I was watching that race live down the betting shop and when he came there on the bridle the hairs on my neck stood up. that doesn't happen very often.
even a mate of mine, who doesn't watch or follow racing, he saw a replay of frankel's sussex stakes win when he beat canford cliffs and was shocked. a horse that can do that isn't an ordinary horse.
https://www.britishhorseracing.com/racing/results/fixture-results/result/#!/2012/1885/9065/0/
BHA have the full 88yds, as do Raceform.
Nowadays moving the rails they have no clue how far the races are really
York do. If the rail is on the inside line it is 1m2f 88yds.
It had been noticed that some courses were producing times way out of line with standard and thus distances may not have been correct
Exactly. The distance advertised as 1m2f 110y was wrong. The start wasn't changed, just the description.
BHA have the full 88yds, as do Raceform.
Nowadays moving the rails they have no clue how far the races are really
York do. If the rail is on the inside line it is 1m2f 88yds.
It had been noticed that some courses were producing times way out of line with standard and thus distances may not have been correct
Exactly. The distance advertised as 1m2f 110y was wrong. The start wasn't changed, just the description.
Well that is a blinkered point of view Figgis. They couldn't measure in the olden days. In fact all the courses were measured again 26 years ago mainly because of the introduction of plastic rails. And the statement you highlighted about times being out of line with standard times was made in 2017 ffs.
Even if the Racing Post is wrong about the 88yds the times still would put Roberto and BG ahead of Frankel Geoff M. But I have said often enough I do not go by times.
LW I am not being contrary. There is so much hype nowadays and no interest in substance it is annoying.
Even if the Racing Post is wrong about the 88yds the times still would put Roberto and BG ahead of Frankel Geoff M. But I have said often enough I do not go by times.
LW I am not being contrary. There is so much hype nowadays and no interest in substance it is annoying.
Interesting opinions but getting a tad repetitive. I think unless everything being equal, everything is subjective and not perspective eg Highland Reel won many Gp 1 races locally and overseas, but was no match with Almanzor, Minding, Found, Golden Horn, Enable, Cracksman, Jack Hobbs, Postponed, etc (from memory) even on ideal conditions. And Postponed did not manage to win The Arc ether.
I think the present crop of 12f Gp1 horses including Enable and Sea Of Class would not have beaten the likes of Dancing Brave, Golden Horn or Treve.
I think the present crop of 12f Gp1 horses including Enable and Sea Of Class would not have beaten the likes of Dancing Brave, Golden Horn or Treve.
They couldn't measure in the olden days
Wtf has that got to do with it? The point is the distance was the same as it is now and not a longer distance that you were using to unfavourably compare Frankel's effort with.
I have said often enough I do not go by times
Yeah, so you keep saying. Yet here you are again on this thread with a post about the subject.
Wtf has that got to do with it? The point is the distance was the same as it is now and not a longer distance that you were using to unfavourably compare Frankel's effort with.
I have said often enough I do not go by times
Yeah, so you keep saying. Yet here you are again on this thread with a post about the subject.
If you think the distances are the same now with moveable rails and the CoC's constantly telling everyone the amended distances well that is up to you F. You refered to times originally and all I did was ask you how that works. I never brought it up. OK!
More importantly back to Cracksman. Are you not concerned with his run in the Coronation Cup where the ground and the distance were right up his street? I know he should win on Saturday but is that not based upon his win last year in this race?
More importantly back to Cracksman. Are you not concerned with his run in the Coronation Cup where the ground and the distance were right up his street? I know he should win on Saturday but is that not based upon his win last year in this race?
Are you not concerned with his run in the Coronation Cup where the ground and the distance were right up his street?
I wasn't at all impressed with him in the CC, but even though he looked good in the Ganay I wasn't impressed with that either as he hadn't done anything more than last year to win that race. I mean he hadn't showed he'd improved along with wfa. After the CC I took the view he hadn't really trained on and laid him in the POW. The thing is when you're laying a 4yo because you believe it hasn't trained on there's still always a risk the horse will suddenly come to hand. Found didn't come to hand as a 4yo until the Irish Champion Stakes. Anyway I got lucky at Ascot because in my view Cracksman did exactly that but Poet's Word ran the race of his life. There's no reason for me to hype up the POW run as I could just say I was right all along instead.
I wasn't at all impressed with him in the CC, but even though he looked good in the Ganay I wasn't impressed with that either as he hadn't done anything more than last year to win that race. I mean he hadn't showed he'd improved along with wfa. After the CC I took the view he hadn't really trained on and laid him in the POW. The thing is when you're laying a 4yo because you believe it hasn't trained on there's still always a risk the horse will suddenly come to hand. Found didn't come to hand as a 4yo until the Irish Champion Stakes. Anyway I got lucky at Ascot because in my view Cracksman did exactly that but Poet's Word ran the race of his life. There's no reason for me to hype up the POW run as I could just say I was right all along instead.
What about Crystal Ocean. I know Stoute retired Poets Word with an injury but I am always suspicious of early retirements after success. If there is really not a lot between Poets Word and Crystal Ocean and through Capri do you not think he is a serious danger?
The way Enable dismissed Crystal Ocean at Kempton could be what Gosden sees with Cracksman and the reason why he never went for the Arc. If he really thinks that Enable would be able to dismiss Cracksman that easily it probably makes sense not to run him, maybe?
As an aside to the dewhurst, how do you rate Persian King ( 25/1 ew ante post) ? Good enough to win a Guineas? Personally I'd expect his usual route of defeat in the djebel to put him straight.
What about Crystal Ocean
I don't think Poet's Word ran quite as well in the KG as he did in the POW. Not on the clock anyway. Firstly because the POW must've taken a bit out of him and secondly because I've found that the fastest 12f performances are never quite as good as the best efforts over 10f. As horses start to race over further than 10f the highest benchmark gets slightly lower.
That said, yes Crystal Ocean would still be Cracksman's main danger on the KG run. However, for me he was definitely below that at Kempton so needs to prove he can return to his earlier form. I reckon not only would he need to return to form but he'd need to improve a bit again to match Cracksman's effort in the POW, which is possible but I'd say not too likely. Also we saw last year how Cracksman can handle soft Ascot ground better than most.
If he really thinks that Enable would be able to dismiss Cracksman that easily it probably makes sense not to run him, maybe?
I still don't understand why he didn't run Cracksman in the Arc. On the day Enable was good enough (due to SOC having a poor draw) but it seems obvious to me she was exactly the same filly as last year and hasn't improved from 3 to 4 in line with wfa. As it turned out she didn't need to, as the race was as poor as it looked beforehand, with nothing else stepping up apart from SOC.
Surely Gosden would've fancied Cracksman to beat Cloth Of Stars by more than a length on what was good ground on the day? I know the market would have. After the POW he seems to have convinced himself that Cracksman really needs soft ground, instead of going with his earlier view that the POW might not have been as poor an effort as it seemed at the time.
I don't think Poet's Word ran quite as well in the KG as he did in the POW. Not on the clock anyway. Firstly because the POW must've taken a bit out of him and secondly because I've found that the fastest 12f performances are never quite as good as the best efforts over 10f. As horses start to race over further than 10f the highest benchmark gets slightly lower.
That said, yes Crystal Ocean would still be Cracksman's main danger on the KG run. However, for me he was definitely below that at Kempton so needs to prove he can return to his earlier form. I reckon not only would he need to return to form but he'd need to improve a bit again to match Cracksman's effort in the POW, which is possible but I'd say not too likely. Also we saw last year how Cracksman can handle soft Ascot ground better than most.
If he really thinks that Enable would be able to dismiss Cracksman that easily it probably makes sense not to run him, maybe?
I still don't understand why he didn't run Cracksman in the Arc. On the day Enable was good enough (due to SOC having a poor draw) but it seems obvious to me she was exactly the same filly as last year and hasn't improved from 3 to 4 in line with wfa. As it turned out she didn't need to, as the race was as poor as it looked beforehand, with nothing else stepping up apart from SOC.
Surely Gosden would've fancied Cracksman to beat Cloth Of Stars by more than a length on what was good ground on the day? I know the market would have. After the POW he seems to have convinced himself that Cracksman really needs soft ground, instead of going with his earlier view that the POW might not have been as poor an effort as it seemed at the time.
I have already backed Cracksman but the more I look at Crystal Ocean the more I like him. He beat Coronet easily in the KG and she ran 2nd to Sea of Class. She also was narrowly beaten by Waldgiest in St Cloud and Waldgiest ran up just behind Cracksman in the Irish Derby. Salouen was also well beaten in the King George and nearly beat Cracksman on his favoured ground at Epsom. He beat Our Venice Beach 25 lengths in the St leger after that horse had finished 6 lengths behind Cracksman. He started favourite to beat Poets Word at Ascot but the faster ground probably just favoured the older, more experienced horse. Capri outstayed him in the St Leger and beat Cracksman in Ireland.
Added to that Cracksman has not had a glorious year but had all of the hype. I think overall Crystal Ocean's form looks stronger than Cracksman and Stoute has opted to miss the Arc for this for different reasons Gosden has, I guess.
Added to that Cracksman has not had a glorious year but had all of the hype. I think overall Crystal Ocean's form looks stronger than Cracksman and Stoute has opted to miss the Arc for this for different reasons Gosden has, I guess.
Twonky, I've only watched the race once but he travelled really well then didn't find as much as I expected. I have the bare form a long way (13lbs) below TDH and Quorto. He looks well behind the likes of Fabre's Pennekamp, but that's just my opinion.
Looking at the result of the KG I reckon if Cracksman had run he'd have turned around the form with Poet's Word and narrowly won. Not that he would've improved, he wouldn't have needed to. I'm glad he didn't run as the decision to back Poet's Word without him was an easy one. If Cracksman had run I don't know who I'd have backed but probably would've been tempted to stay with PW.
I can understand Gosden skipping the KG with Cracksman, regardless of the ground, as when a horse has reached its peak as a 4yo there is only so much petrol in the tank. Unless you have a runner head and shoulders above the rest who can win on the snaff, then these races are going to take something out of the horse. To save him for the Arc made sense. To save him for the Champion Stakes makes less sense to me but that's where we are.
I can understand Gosden skipping the KG with Cracksman, regardless of the ground, as when a horse has reached its peak as a 4yo there is only so much petrol in the tank. Unless you have a runner head and shoulders above the rest who can win on the snaff, then these races are going to take something out of the horse. To save him for the Arc made sense. To save him for the Champion Stakes makes less sense to me but that's where we are.
I have always been of the belief Gosden thought Cracksman was a Western Hymn. WH won his maiden first time out at two then, with the Derby in mind, he won a conditions race at Newbury (Cracksman's supposed first target at three according to JG after Newmarket) then a Derby trial then 6th in Australia's Derby. And that is probably where Cracksman would have finished. I just bet JG couldn't believe how average the three year old colt races were. That is why he never considered him for the Arc last year or this year. He has won a couple of possibly dodgy Group 1's with him, races trainers never really train their horses for, and he may get away with it. Western Hymn won at Gr2 level and was placed at Gr 1 level, 3rd in the Prince of Wales twice and 3rd in the Eclipse to Golden Horn. Probably what Cracksman would have achieved had he been born then. History may be JG's guide.
Well I have Western Hymn's best effort 12lbs behind Cracksman at Ascot. Western Hymn finished fourth in the Champion Stakes as a 3yo. I'd have Cracksman winning that race by at least 1.5 lengths. He's a far better horse than Western Hymn.
If he's only as good as Western Hymn then surely he must be a lay at this price?
So, F, you think Cracksman would have won Australia's Derby? I cannot have that for any money.
No I don't but we're talking about horses aged only 3 and a few months. To pin an immature horse down by what they do in early June is silly (and Cracksman was more immature then the average Derby runner). I do think he'd have beaten Australia in the International and the Irish Champion Stakes when he was a better racehorse. Cracksman improved a few pounds, whereas Australia did not.
Good morning F. Where did Cracksman improve a few pounds? I don't get this beginning and end of season hype. Cracksman is doing what Cirrus des Aigles did. Win Group 1 races at the beginning of the season not targetted by the top horses and at the end of the season when the top horses have been prepared for the Arc etc and this is an afterthought. CDA couldn't win a top Group 1 in the heat of the season and neither could Cracksman. Group 1's the other top trainers have trained their horses for. No-one trains their best horses to win the Ganay or the Champion Stakes. They then end up with a higher rating than the horses who beat them in the eat of the season. It's nonsense.
I don't know if you remember Bristol de Mai last season. He ran in the Betfair Chase on heavy ground won by miles and was given a huge rating in the high 170's. Totally and absolutely ridiculous. He was bang fit, running on in November, on exceptional ground, against horses who had other major targets in mind and gets a ridiculous rating way above his ability. Had he been a flat horse they would have been mad not to retire him straight away like they did Harbinger.
I don't know if you remember Bristol de Mai last season. He ran in the Betfair Chase on heavy ground won by miles and was given a huge rating in the high 170's. Totally and absolutely ridiculous. He was bang fit, running on in November, on exceptional ground, against horses who had other major targets in mind and gets a ridiculous rating way above his ability. Had he been a flat horse they would have been mad not to retire him straight away like they did Harbinger.
CDA couldn't win a top Group 1 in the heat of the season
You reckon So You Think, Snow Fairy, Midday and Nathaniel all ran below form in that year's Champion Stakes in a race run in a fast time on ground that was really good to firm?
You reckon So You Think, Snow Fairy, Midday and Nathaniel all ran below form in that year's Champion Stakes in a race run in a fast time on ground that was really good to firm?
Most people are flexible in their views on immature horses. Most punters would not point to what a horse did on only its third start in a Derby and try to hold the rest of its form down by that one run. With such preconceived stubborn ideas Cracksman can't win. He's been said to be no better than Western Hymn and certainly not a bet at the price even in view of the opposition. If Cracksman bolts up by 5 lengths on Saturday then most posters who would've made the WH comparison would hold their hands up and say they got it wrong. We know in this instance, however, that the win will be downgraded due to others not being targeted at the race. As I said, Cracksman can't win on these terms so it is all pointless.
Yes I do reckon Snow Fairy and So You Think left their Champion Stakes at Longchamp. That's possibly why CDA started at 14/1 because on form he wasn't the likely winner.
You should follow your own rules F. You are now judging Western Hymn on his later form. He wasn't reliable and wasn't bred well enough to go to stud. Cracksman is saved by the fact he is by Frankel. His 3 year old form wasn't bad winning a Group 2 in France beating a horse as good as Avilius beat in his Group 2 in France before winning the Champion Stakes. When WH ran in the Champion Stakes he beat CDA on his ideal ground in a race he would not have been laid out for. His 4 year old form from 4 races was a defeat of Postponed a third beaten 2+ lengths in the Prince of Wales Stakes beaten by a horse winning his first Group 1 after being placed in the Champion Stakes the year before on very soft ground, (Sound familiar?). Then a third in the Eclipse to horse JG has always rated above Cracksman, Golden Horn.
The similarities are there. Do I think Cracksman is Western Hymn. Well They would have looked very similar at the end of their 4 year old season. Cracksman just has the edge by virtue of his 2 Group 1 wins however the substance of both is somewhat dubious. It just depends on the quality of horses they are running against etc.
You should follow your own rules F. You are now judging Western Hymn on his later form. He wasn't reliable and wasn't bred well enough to go to stud. Cracksman is saved by the fact he is by Frankel. His 3 year old form wasn't bad winning a Group 2 in France beating a horse as good as Avilius beat in his Group 2 in France before winning the Champion Stakes. When WH ran in the Champion Stakes he beat CDA on his ideal ground in a race he would not have been laid out for. His 4 year old form from 4 races was a defeat of Postponed a third beaten 2+ lengths in the Prince of Wales Stakes beaten by a horse winning his first Group 1 after being placed in the Champion Stakes the year before on very soft ground, (Sound familiar?). Then a third in the Eclipse to horse JG has always rated above Cracksman, Golden Horn.
The similarities are there. Do I think Cracksman is Western Hymn. Well They would have looked very similar at the end of their 4 year old season. Cracksman just has the edge by virtue of his 2 Group 1 wins however the substance of both is somewhat dubious. It just depends on the quality of horses they are running against etc.
I actually think the Champion Stakes will be very interesting. Crystal Ocean has Cracksman form and so does Capri. Both look like they will handle the ground and the trip and although Capri has run in France recently he has had a pretty easy season and it looks like Stoute has deliberately aimed Crystal Ocean at this so there should be an ideal opportunity to see how much Cracksman has improved and possibly how good he really is.
Snow Fairy and So You Think left their Champion Stakes at Longchamp
It's pretty obvious to even Danedream's biggest fans that Snow Fairy and SYT didn't give their true running at Longchamp. SYT was always considered a doubtful stayer anyway.
You are now judging Western Hymn on his later form
I'm judging him on his whole career. Never put up anything higher than a Gp3 figure.
Cracksman is saved by the fact he is by Frankel
That would only be the view of someone with an obsession to downgrade anything to do with Frankel. Most of us would judge Cracksman on his racecourse performances. Personally I have never give a sh1te about who a horse's father was.
It's pretty obvious to even Danedream's biggest fans that Snow Fairy and SYT didn't give their true running at Longchamp. SYT was always considered a doubtful stayer anyway.
You are now judging Western Hymn on his later form
I'm judging him on his whole career. Never put up anything higher than a Gp3 figure.
Cracksman is saved by the fact he is by Frankel
That would only be the view of someone with an obsession to downgrade anything to do with Frankel. Most of us would judge Cracksman on his racecourse performances. Personally I have never give a sh1te about who a horse's father was.
When WH ran in the Champion Stakes he beat CDA on his ideal ground in a race he would not have been laid out for
I'm willing to accept most views that disagree with mine as far as racing goes as a lot of form is open to opinion. However anyone who can seriously suggest that CDA at the age of 8 and beaten more than 6 lengths by Noble Mission and only a head in front of Sheikhzayedroad ran anything like his earlier form is obviously talking out of their ****.
I'm willing to accept most views that disagree with mine as far as racing goes as a lot of form is open to opinion. However anyone who can seriously suggest that CDA at the age of 8 and beaten more than 6 lengths by Noble Mission and only a head in front of Sheikhzayedroad ran anything like his earlier form is obviously talking out of their ****.
Danedream ran a huge time in the Arc so anyone chasing that would show the results when running again 13 days later. I remember saying I thought Frankel suffered in the St James Palace Stakes because he ran hard in the 2000 Guineas and it probably left it's mark and you agreed.
How can you judge Western Hymn on his whole career against a horse who has been sparing placed ffs. Get a grip.
If you don't think breeding is important when horses Western Hymn's sire is available at 30K and Cracksman's sire is available at 175k and that isn't important whether horses stay in training or are retired to stud then that's for you to figure out.
How can you judge Western Hymn on his whole career against a horse who has been sparing placed ffs. Get a grip.
If you don't think breeding is important when horses Western Hymn's sire is available at 30K and Cracksman's sire is available at 175k and that isn't important whether horses stay in training or are retired to stud then that's for you to figure out.
How can you judge Western Hymn on his whole career against a horse who has been sparing placed ffs
Quite simply because the horse sparingly placed has already run way faster than the horse who had a whole career to better it. I think the question should be how can you negatively hold down a horse who has only ran sparingly
I never said breeding wasn't important in the scheme of things. I said it wasn't important to me when I'm looking out how fast horses have run. I don't think 'well this horse looks quite slow but I did quite like his daddy so I will upgrade him'. Anyone who thinks punters would be interested in increasing stud fees has to be paranoid and off their rocker.
Quite simply because the horse sparingly placed has already run way faster than the horse who had a whole career to better it. I think the question should be how can you negatively hold down a horse who has only ran sparingly
I never said breeding wasn't important in the scheme of things. I said it wasn't important to me when I'm looking out how fast horses have run. I don't think 'well this horse looks quite slow but I did quite like his daddy so I will upgrade him'. Anyone who thinks punters would be interested in increasing stud fees has to be paranoid and off their rocker.
I cannot remember saying CDA was running to his best form but he was running to a supposed highish rating that year. And my mate the Sheikh ran on at the death through beaten horses, that does happen and CDA did start favourite that day so I think a lot of others were betting out of their **** if you ask me.
It all boils down to your view before the race. Mine is I think Cracksman is a cracking bet even at the shortish price. There is only one horse who can get reasonably close to him and that is Crystal Ocean. However I'm not sure he'll be at peak form and even if he is I'd still have Cracksman to beat him a length or two. The rest won't see Cracksman's anus for mud. You think Cracksman is a poor bet.
You are simply being your usual argumentative self Figgis. I was comparing the way Gosden spoke about Cracksman, and still speaks about him. The way he has placed him when compared with Western Hymn. It is almost identical. Plus the fact that it is possible it may not have been financially viable to retire WH at the end of his 4 year old career.
All I am saying is their career paths are similar.
Western Hymn ran one and won once in a maiden as a two year old just like Cracksman.
Western Hymn ran 6 times including the Derby and ending in the Champion Stakes just like Cracksman.
Western Hymn went to France after the Derby and won a Group 2 just like Cracksman.
Western Hymn ran 4 times as a 4 year old winning his first two then being placed in the Prince of Wales just like Cracksman.
It may just have been the quality of the opposition that divides them but we really don't know for sure whether being beaten 9 lengths by Australia following a bad journey is better or worse than being beaten a length by Wings of Eagles. Or whether being beaten just over 2 lengths by Free Eagle is better or worse than being beaten just over 2 lengths by Poets Word. Or whether beating Postponed narrowly is better or worse than beating Salouen narrowly. Or whether beating Army Bulletin easily is better or worse than beating Atavilius easily or Wrens Day.
I think Cracksman is a poor bet at the price. I have already backed him at better prices. I am just being realistic. His form this season has question marks hanging over it and JG's planning doesn't instil confidence in his ability. Even consider JG said Enable suffered from a high temperature and off her food after Kempton so surely that would have brought Cracksman even more into the picture.
All I am saying is their career paths are similar.
Western Hymn ran one and won once in a maiden as a two year old just like Cracksman.
Western Hymn ran 6 times including the Derby and ending in the Champion Stakes just like Cracksman.
Western Hymn went to France after the Derby and won a Group 2 just like Cracksman.
Western Hymn ran 4 times as a 4 year old winning his first two then being placed in the Prince of Wales just like Cracksman.
It may just have been the quality of the opposition that divides them but we really don't know for sure whether being beaten 9 lengths by Australia following a bad journey is better or worse than being beaten a length by Wings of Eagles. Or whether being beaten just over 2 lengths by Free Eagle is better or worse than being beaten just over 2 lengths by Poets Word. Or whether beating Postponed narrowly is better or worse than beating Salouen narrowly. Or whether beating Army Bulletin easily is better or worse than beating Atavilius easily or Wrens Day.
I think Cracksman is a poor bet at the price. I have already backed him at better prices. I am just being realistic. His form this season has question marks hanging over it and JG's planning doesn't instil confidence in his ability. Even consider JG said Enable suffered from a high temperature and off her food after Kempton so surely that would have brought Cracksman even more into the picture.
Danedream ran a huge time in the Arc so anyone chasing that would show the results when running again 13 days later. I remember saying I thought Frankel suffered in the St James Palace Stakes because he ran hard in the 2000 Guineas and it probably left it's mark and you agreed.
Wouldn't disagree with the bit about Frankel. As even though the jockey got criticised, and admittedly it wasn't the best move, I had been half expecting Frankel to run below par immediately after the Guineas effort. The Danedream case is different. As even if you believe the rest were all on form but were killed off through chasing the pace in the Arc (I don't but will go along with it for argument's sake), it means they didn't have the opportunity to run their race so it wouldn't have adversely affected them. It is when horses are pushed to run to their max that they suffer physically. Chasing a too fast pace will affect their ability to perform to their best on that day, but it won't harm them for their next effort.
Wouldn't disagree with the bit about Frankel. As even though the jockey got criticised, and admittedly it wasn't the best move, I had been half expecting Frankel to run below par immediately after the Guineas effort. The Danedream case is different. As even if you believe the rest were all on form but were killed off through chasing the pace in the Arc (I don't but will go along with it for argument's sake), it means they didn't have the opportunity to run their race so it wouldn't have adversely affected them. It is when horses are pushed to run to their max that they suffer physically. Chasing a too fast pace will affect their ability to perform to their best on that day, but it won't harm them for their next effort.
Hi Laurie,
Welcome back, even if it's only temporary.
I'm not going to get embroiled in the Frankel discussion, i think we 'killed' that one several years ago when we were friendly adversaries
As far as Cracksman goes, i was/am always of the opinon connections knew Enable had the beating of him and posted as such several times. The champion field is not particularly strong now with several missing that would have made it interesting and certainly more competitive.
He's the rightful favourite with a lot in his favour, but i wouldn't back him now at odds on, nor did i fancy him before anyway. Mind you he won't have everything his own way with Crystal Ocean in the field who has won on soft and stays well. Good luck.
Welcome back, even if it's only temporary.
I'm not going to get embroiled in the Frankel discussion, i think we 'killed' that one several years ago when we were friendly adversaries
As far as Cracksman goes, i was/am always of the opinon connections knew Enable had the beating of him and posted as such several times. The champion field is not particularly strong now with several missing that would have made it interesting and certainly more competitive.
He's the rightful favourite with a lot in his favour, but i wouldn't back him now at odds on, nor did i fancy him before anyway. Mind you he won't have everything his own way with Crystal Ocean in the field who has won on soft and stays well. Good luck.
cracksman back at the track where he produced his list topping rating last year hopefully can murder the
opposition, see capri has lowly rating in this race at 118, has had a very light campaign so far this season
and im wondering if that horse can possibly steal the runners up spot in the race, the battle for 2nd place
is the most interesting aspect of the race for me, if cracksman runs to his best form and wins easily.
goodluck all
opposition, see capri has lowly rating in this race at 118, has had a very light campaign so far this season
and im wondering if that horse can possibly steal the runners up spot in the race, the battle for 2nd place
is the most interesting aspect of the race for me, if cracksman runs to his best form and wins easily.
goodluck all
I was comparing the way Gosden spoke about Cracksman, and still speaks about him
I don't really care how Gosden speaks of him. If you are asking me is Cracksman an all time great? No he isn't and he's never done anything to suggest that to me. I do believe he could've enhanced his reputation with an Arc win but Gosden was too cautious. My opinion of Cracksman is he was no better than most Derby placed horses in the early part of his career. I reckon in the latter part of last season he improved to be a horse capable of putting up a better than average Derby winning effort. But still nothing to go overboard about. I rate Authorized, for instance, higher.
My view is up to and including the CC he hadn't improved at all in real terms. By that I mean he received 4lbs in last year's Champion Stakes on the assumption that's how much he would improve at 4. In my view he stood still. It was the POW performance that showed me he'd finally come to hand. I have him improving not just the 4lbs but a total of 8lbs, which isn't really that unusual. But you have to remember I probably didn't rate him as high as Timeform, etc, for his Champion Stakes win. In this instance I don't care what Poet's Word beat before. That was a top class effort on the clock and the rest were hammered accordingly.
That still doesn't put him up with the all time fastest for me. But it does make him a proper Gp1 4yo. A horse capable of winning a typical running of this event, never mind a below par one.
I don't really care how Gosden speaks of him. If you are asking me is Cracksman an all time great? No he isn't and he's never done anything to suggest that to me. I do believe he could've enhanced his reputation with an Arc win but Gosden was too cautious. My opinion of Cracksman is he was no better than most Derby placed horses in the early part of his career. I reckon in the latter part of last season he improved to be a horse capable of putting up a better than average Derby winning effort. But still nothing to go overboard about. I rate Authorized, for instance, higher.
My view is up to and including the CC he hadn't improved at all in real terms. By that I mean he received 4lbs in last year's Champion Stakes on the assumption that's how much he would improve at 4. In my view he stood still. It was the POW performance that showed me he'd finally come to hand. I have him improving not just the 4lbs but a total of 8lbs, which isn't really that unusual. But you have to remember I probably didn't rate him as high as Timeform, etc, for his Champion Stakes win. In this instance I don't care what Poet's Word beat before. That was a top class effort on the clock and the rest were hammered accordingly.
That still doesn't put him up with the all time fastest for me. But it does make him a proper Gp1 4yo. A horse capable of winning a typical running of this event, never mind a below par one.
It's a pity Cloth Of Stars isn't running here and we could get an idea of where Cracksman might've finished in the Arc. Although I'm sure Gosden would still say he wouldn't have handled the firm ground (actually good) at Longchamp.
Hi Andrew good to hear from you. I am only here this week myself visiting the physio for one. I suspected Cracksman would miss the Arc as we neared the day so I backed him on occasion for the Champion Stakes not really knowing the opposition but I wouldn't back him at the price today. He does deserve to be favourite of course but he only has last seasons Champion to go on. JG has completely stumped me this time. Again if, as he said, Enable had a high temperature and was off her food after Kempton then that surely would have brought him into the mix. It simply does not make any sense at all. I think every other trainer in the country would have been pleased to run him.
Fox Power won for me but the price was dreadful.
Contrary to popular belief I am a Frankel fan and had a letter in the Racing Post praising him after his Sussex Stakes win it's just the hype that gets me.
I don't know. They went fast in Danedream's Arc and both Snow Fairy and So You Think would have beaten Golden Horn or Enable on their times that day plus they were running on and not dropping away. I certainly think it mattered considering it was less than 2 weeks later. The one thing I do consider as far as time is concerned is the effect it has on the horse's next run. I have constantly heard Willo say this or that horse ran a big time last time and then watched it get beaten.
If Capri runs I think that may be a better guide because I think Cloth of Stars just doesn't seem able to win.
Fox Power won for me but the price was dreadful.
Contrary to popular belief I am a Frankel fan and had a letter in the Racing Post praising him after his Sussex Stakes win it's just the hype that gets me.
I don't know. They went fast in Danedream's Arc and both Snow Fairy and So You Think would have beaten Golden Horn or Enable on their times that day plus they were running on and not dropping away. I certainly think it mattered considering it was less than 2 weeks later. The one thing I do consider as far as time is concerned is the effect it has on the horse's next run. I have constantly heard Willo say this or that horse ran a big time last time and then watched it get beaten.
If Capri runs I think that may be a better guide because I think Cloth of Stars just doesn't seem able to win.
Seven declared and Cracksman wearing blinkers. Crystal Ocean and Capri both run but Roaring Lion goes for the QE11.
If Capri runs I think that may be a better guide
By my reckoning Capri in finishing 5th in the Arc didn't even run as fast (performance wise) as he did in last year's Leger. He hasn't trained on. Which is probably why O'Brien has hardly raced him this year. Maybe O'Brien can work some magic on him this late in the season but I'm expecting him to get well and truly stuffed.
By my reckoning Capri in finishing 5th in the Arc didn't even run as fast (performance wise) as he did in last year's Leger. He hasn't trained on. Which is probably why O'Brien has hardly raced him this year. Maybe O'Brien can work some magic on him this late in the season but I'm expecting him to get well and truly stuffed.
Hi Andrew I just messaged you. Take care. Have a good day.
If you are right about Capri F this looks like another 2 horse race. It's rubbish really but it is what I call an afterthought race. The kind of race no trainer would put in the top 5 races they would like to win.
Sure, it's a 2 horse race, as long as the main 2 horses run their race. Some Gp1 races certainly run deeper than this one in quality, which definitely lacks depth. But when you come right down to it in most Gp1s there are usually only about 2 or sometimes 3 genuine all age standard Gp1 winners in the lineup. These races become more competitive when the best horses are in danger of being over the top, or when we have a bunch of horses just on the fringe of Gp1 level.
Well Figgis you were right. I hope you cashed in. I couldn't back him at the short price but I did back him before the Arc because I thought in the back of my mind he wouldn't run.
But doesn't the hype drive you mad? Prat Chapman shouting about him being the best horse in the world ffs? He wasn't fast enough to win anything decent during either season on proper racing ground and now they are calling him the greatest in the world. Lots of horses win the Champion Stakes and win during the season as well, not this horse because he is too slow. Would you pay a high price to breed from him?
But doesn't the hype drive you mad? Prat Chapman shouting about him being the best horse in the world ffs? He wasn't fast enough to win anything decent during either season on proper racing ground and now they are calling him the greatest in the world. Lots of horses win the Champion Stakes and win during the season as well, not this horse because he is too slow. Would you pay a high price to breed from him?
Brigust, yes I backed him. The ground was kicking up but was only good to soft today, nothing like as soft as last year when he won, that's evident from the times. I think following the POW he would've won any 10f-12f European Gp1 race this year they could've aimed him at, some more easily than others, not that I'm saying he could've won the lot together as there is only limited petrol in the tank. I still believe he would've won this year's Arc given luck in running and I think he would've won it comfortably. I don't think he's an exceptional Gp1 4yo but he's certainly not a poor one.
I couldn't agree less. He was too slow to win a genuine Group 1 on fast ground and that is what flat racing is all about. Throughout his whole career, at Epsom and the Curragh and at Ascot he showed that lack of speed. And that is JG's opinion, not mine. They didn't want to risk him even in a soft Gr1 if they could find it because he was too fragile mentally and too slow.
JG pulled a masterstroke kidding people into thinking exactly way you think without having to deliver. A masterstroke.
JG pulled a masterstroke kidding people into thinking exactly way you think without having to deliver. A masterstroke.
JG pulled a masterstroke kidding people into thinking exactly way you think without having to deliver. A masterstroke
Fair enough, that's your opinion. But your opinion was also that he was a poor bet
Fair enough, that's your opinion. But your opinion was also that he was a poor bet
No Figgis that is not my opinion. I had already backed him at a lot bigger thanks. Had I not I may have backed him at the price he was because I always backed him. Who knows. But as I had already backed him I wasn't prepared to back him again.
The truth is Cracksman couldn't win a Group 1 in the heat of the season when required and against not necessarily tough opposition. And JG wasn't prepared to race him again after the POW unless the ground slowed down the opposition. They are the facts and they are undisputed.
He was a nice horse I followed closely through his career and had some fun but he was slow and that showed in all his races including the POW. He had class and stamina and that saved him but he would always have been vulnerable to speed.
The truth is Cracksman couldn't win a Group 1 in the heat of the season when required and against not necessarily tough opposition. And JG wasn't prepared to race him again after the POW unless the ground slowed down the opposition. They are the facts and they are undisputed.
He was a nice horse I followed closely through his career and had some fun but he was slow and that showed in all his races including the POW. He had class and stamina and that saved him but he would always have been vulnerable to speed.
The truth is Cracksman could've won by 20 lengths today and you wouldn't have budged, we all know that by now.
No Figgis the truth is that neither the owner nor the trainer think what you think. That is the truth of the matter.
the truth is that neither the owner nor the trainer think what you think
Ok, I'll expect you to go along with everything trainers and owners think in future. Now we know where we are
Ok, I'll expect you to go along with everything trainers and owners think in future. Now we know where we are
At the end of the day, in this type of circumstance, you have to trust the trainer knows what is best. I thought he should have run in the Arc but JG said the ground was too fast for him. He said the same about the King George. Under these circumstances, this isn't hype. Had he said the horse wasn't ready or suffering from something then I may have thought about it but all the evidence shows that on top of the ground he is vulnerable to quicker horses and needs slow ground to slow them down and bring his stride and strength into the equation.
It is alright for you because you can sit back and listen to the ratings guys and commentators who think they know more than the trainer.
It is alright for you because you can sit back and listen to the ratings guys and commentators who think they know more than the trainer.
It is alright for you because you can sit back and listen to the ratings guy
Seems to be you obsessing over other people's ratings. I do my own thanks
Seems to be you obsessing over other people's ratings. I do my own thanks
I see this thread has morphed from the Dewhurst to the Champion stakes
Well done Laurie and Figgus with your Cracksman bets, the best horse won on the day although it wasn't a strong field by any means. I didn't back or lay him (I actually backed Crystal Ocean at 1.33 in the place market).
We all know JG keeps his superstars apart and i think this answers a question or two.
Cracksman is undoubtedly a good horse with a decent overall record, but only when everything is right. Connections had several opportunies last year and recently to meet Enable but avoided her every time. I have maintained throughout they knew she was the better of the two. He's better at 10f on ground with soft in the description and i doubt he would ever have beaten a fit Enable over 12f, on any course, even on good to soft. Good luck.
Well done Laurie and Figgus with your Cracksman bets, the best horse won on the day although it wasn't a strong field by any means. I didn't back or lay him (I actually backed Crystal Ocean at 1.33 in the place market).
We all know JG keeps his superstars apart and i think this answers a question or two.
Cracksman is undoubtedly a good horse with a decent overall record, but only when everything is right. Connections had several opportunies last year and recently to meet Enable but avoided her every time. I have maintained throughout they knew she was the better of the two. He's better at 10f on ground with soft in the description and i doubt he would ever have beaten a fit Enable over 12f, on any course, even on good to soft. Good luck.
i doubt he would ever have beaten a fit Enable over 12f, on any course, even on good to soft.
How would you price him under those conditions against Sea Of Class and Cloth Of Stars?
How would you price him under those conditions against Sea Of Class and Cloth Of Stars?
Figgis,
Good question
Let's assume you mean back in time for the Arc (a day before the race) on exactly the same official going, good, although i feel it was a little on the soft side of good.
I never thought Cracksman would run in the Arc as you know, but i would still have Enable favourite, albeit odds against of course. Forget CoS i wouldn't have considered him at the time.
Enable 11/8
Cracksman 5/1
Sea of Class 7/1
Of course after yesterday there will be those (aka Chapman) who feel Cracksman is the best in the world, this is absolute nonsense and only riding the crest of a euphoric wave based on a 6L win against a field unsuited by the distance and/or going, although i accept 100% he won well.
Good question
Let's assume you mean back in time for the Arc (a day before the race) on exactly the same official going, good, although i feel it was a little on the soft side of good.
I never thought Cracksman would run in the Arc as you know, but i would still have Enable favourite, albeit odds against of course. Forget CoS i wouldn't have considered him at the time.
Enable 11/8
Cracksman 5/1
Sea of Class 7/1
Of course after yesterday there will be those (aka Chapman) who feel Cracksman is the best in the world, this is absolute nonsense and only riding the crest of a euphoric wave based on a 6L win against a field unsuited by the distance and/or going, although i accept 100% he won well.
Enable as a 3yo was good enough to win or run close to winning many Arcs. In light of this year's result even her biggest fans must realise that she's stood still since then. Cloth Of Stars is not a Gp1 horse, in fact he's never run faster than Gp3 level. He managed to win some piss poor/slowly run races in France. The only reason he got as close as he did to Enable last year was they didn't go as fast as they could have. Enable had run faster earlier in the year.
This year was different. There was no excuse with the pace. Cloth Of Stars got closer because Enable has stood still and is now carrying more weight. My first thoughts watching the race were Sea Of Class would've won with a better draw/trip/ride. This can virtually be proved if you look at the times. There is now talk of Sea Of Class being an exceptional filly, but I still have her no better than an average Oaks winner, so I'll be interested in her next season with a view to opposing her if I think she continues to be overrated on her Arc effort.
I've heard some excuses about Enable's preparation after the result, but before the race her fans were confident that she would be cherry ripe and have only changed their tune as she didn't win as they expected. Some people thought she wouldn't need to improve with wfa whereas I thought she could still be vulnerable to an improver. They turned out to be right and I was wrong. Obviously I can see why Gosden was keen to attempt back to back victories with the filly and he managed to do it, credit to him. He achieved it though in a very poor renewal. She hasn't improved with wfa and would be very lucky to face a set of opponents next year as poor as this year. Wouldn't be surprised if Gosden realises this and quits while she's ahead.
This year was different. There was no excuse with the pace. Cloth Of Stars got closer because Enable has stood still and is now carrying more weight. My first thoughts watching the race were Sea Of Class would've won with a better draw/trip/ride. This can virtually be proved if you look at the times. There is now talk of Sea Of Class being an exceptional filly, but I still have her no better than an average Oaks winner, so I'll be interested in her next season with a view to opposing her if I think she continues to be overrated on her Arc effort.
I've heard some excuses about Enable's preparation after the result, but before the race her fans were confident that she would be cherry ripe and have only changed their tune as she didn't win as they expected. Some people thought she wouldn't need to improve with wfa whereas I thought she could still be vulnerable to an improver. They turned out to be right and I was wrong. Obviously I can see why Gosden was keen to attempt back to back victories with the filly and he managed to do it, credit to him. He achieved it though in a very poor renewal. She hasn't improved with wfa and would be very lucky to face a set of opponents next year as poor as this year. Wouldn't be surprised if Gosden realises this and quits while she's ahead.
Figgis,
I agree entirely with some of the above, but you have to consider that Enable only had one race this year, no other Arc winner had such a preparation. She had been off with 'injury' and subsequent to that a 'high temperature' issue that was such her run was even in doubt.
She burst 3L clear at 100m and it was only lack of fitness that prevented that being further and was the best horse on the day. 10 wins, all on different tracks, over varying distances and going, without question, one of the best middle distance fillies ever.
The time was the fastest on the days card with respect to 'standard', in fact, it was the only one that was 'fast' (above standard). She was also giving weight to Sea Of Class.
I'm on the fence with respect to Sea Of Class, but i will state today she will never beat Enable next year and connections will not pass over the opportunity to race for a third Arc win that may never be repeated.
I agree entirely with some of the above, but you have to consider that Enable only had one race this year, no other Arc winner had such a preparation. She had been off with 'injury' and subsequent to that a 'high temperature' issue that was such her run was even in doubt.
She burst 3L clear at 100m and it was only lack of fitness that prevented that being further and was the best horse on the day. 10 wins, all on different tracks, over varying distances and going, without question, one of the best middle distance fillies ever.
The time was the fastest on the days card with respect to 'standard', in fact, it was the only one that was 'fast' (above standard). She was also giving weight to Sea Of Class.
I'm on the fence with respect to Sea Of Class, but i will state today she will never beat Enable next year and connections will not pass over the opportunity to race for a third Arc win that may never be repeated.
Gosden always said the injury was minor and he was confident about her recovery. The only reason there was a prolonged delay with her comeback was that, once an early season start was ruled out, Gosden was single-mindedly preparing her for one race, the Arc.
it was only lack of fitness that prevented that being further
Well I can't say that's definitely not true but at the moment it's a guess with a positive spin.
Do you think she was any less fit than Cracksman who hadn't run since June? I'd say Gosden is more than capable at getting both horses fit for the day that mattered.
The time was the fastest on the days card with respect to 'standard'
There is often a difference between the shorter races on the Arc card and the longer ones, could be different ground or, more likely, the rail movement. A comparison with the 10f Wild Illusion race shows it was a below par time performance for an Arc. But I accept that's open to interpretation.
10 wins, all on different tracks, over varying distances and going, without question, one of the best middle distance fillies ever.
Certainly one of the best 3yo fillies. Her two runs as a 4yo wouldn't be up with the best for me.
it was only lack of fitness that prevented that being further
Well I can't say that's definitely not true but at the moment it's a guess with a positive spin.
Do you think she was any less fit than Cracksman who hadn't run since June? I'd say Gosden is more than capable at getting both horses fit for the day that mattered.
The time was the fastest on the days card with respect to 'standard'
There is often a difference between the shorter races on the Arc card and the longer ones, could be different ground or, more likely, the rail movement. A comparison with the 10f Wild Illusion race shows it was a below par time performance for an Arc. But I accept that's open to interpretation.
10 wins, all on different tracks, over varying distances and going, without question, one of the best middle distance fillies ever.
Certainly one of the best 3yo fillies. Her two runs as a 4yo wouldn't be up with the best for me.
The stuff about Enable's prep, lack of fitness, etc, and if it affected her performance can only be conjecture. What surely isn't conjecture though is the disadvantage Sea Of Class had in trying to win the race from where she was. This wasn't just a case of a horse plodding on past spent horses plodding even slower. So then the question is how good is Sea Of Class? I'd say a bit better than I thought she was but still wouldn't have her as a better than average Oaks winner.
Irrespective of Enables injury/sickness, you can't ignore the fact she's the only winner in hostoiry to have has one race in the same season pre the Arc, surely that's an achievement in itself.
I don't subscribe to the ride JD gave SOC, but i appreciate my views could appear to be biased based on my liking of Enable.
Many good colts and fillies come from well off the pace at Longchamp and win, even allowing for a short straight (forget the 'false' part) ...... SOC didn't. Dancing Brave and Zarkava (in the Vermeille) spring to mind.
I don't subscribe to the ride JD gave SOC, but i appreciate my views could appear to be biased based on my liking of Enable.
Many good colts and fillies come from well off the pace at Longchamp and win, even allowing for a short straight (forget the 'false' part) ...... SOC didn't. Dancing Brave and Zarkava (in the Vermeille) spring to mind.
she's the only winner in hostoiry to have has one race in the same season pre the Arc, surely that's an achievement in itself.
To win only one race beforehand would obviously not be an aim for most connections so will only happen due to mishaps. It's going to be a rarity but I personally wouldn't see it as a disadvantage, providing it wasn't a serious issue that had caused it. I actually take the opposite view, that to be raced sparingly is actually usually an advantage before a big race. If Cracksman had taken in the KG, International or Irish Champion Stakes and ran right up to his peak in those races I'd have been less keen on him yesterday and might not even have bothered at the price.
To win only one race beforehand would obviously not be an aim for most connections so will only happen due to mishaps. It's going to be a rarity but I personally wouldn't see it as a disadvantage, providing it wasn't a serious issue that had caused it. I actually take the opposite view, that to be raced sparingly is actually usually an advantage before a big race. If Cracksman had taken in the KG, International or Irish Champion Stakes and ran right up to his peak in those races I'd have been less keen on him yesterday and might not even have bothered at the price.
Figgis,
I think if Enable wins next years Arc on the bridle, with Frankie standing in the saddle reading the front page of 'Le Paris Turf' in the last 100 metres, and after winning the Coronation Cup, KG and Juddmonte with ease, you will probably find a negative
I think if Enable wins next years Arc on the bridle, with Frankie standing in the saddle reading the front page of 'Le Paris Turf' in the last 100 metres, and after winning the Coronation Cup, KG and Juddmonte with ease, you will probably find a negative
. Not me Andrew. Think you'll find I've changed opinion on horses many times. I'm always open to the idea of young horses being able to leave their old form behind. On Cracksman I've changed it a few times. Thought he was overrated before last year's Voltigeur, then liked him afterwards.Thought as a 4yo he was overrated until the POW then liked him after. If you look at last year's Oaks thread there was no bigger praise for Enable's ability than from me. However I'm also open to the idea of horse's failing to make assumed improvement too. Can't quite remember the phrase that Beyer came out with, something about love the race but don't love the horse as far as betting goes. There seems to be a love of the horse clouding the view of the recent form going on here
Hi guys. I have to agree I agree with Figgis about Enable in general but do believe she suffered from a truncated season and then problems late on with temperature etc. When Frankie set sail for home, considering he didn't know about her problems, he did it very smoothly and she just never found for him late on making the finisher look better and potentially unlucky. I would like to see Enable run again to set my mind at rest.
Sea of Class would have won tidily without Enable but she had the fillies allowance and the horses behind her were not as good as Enable's first Arc. It will be interesting next season but it depends entirely on what runs. For me the bar at the moment is not very high and having already doubled Cracksman up with TDH in both the Guineas and the Derby I have also had a few quid TDH at 16's for the Arc with the Lads who seem to be taking a stand against him in both the Derby and the Arc.
Hi Andrew, good to see you hold Prat Chapman in similar esteem to me.
Sea of Class would have won tidily without Enable but she had the fillies allowance and the horses behind her were not as good as Enable's first Arc. It will be interesting next season but it depends entirely on what runs. For me the bar at the moment is not very high and having already doubled Cracksman up with TDH in both the Guineas and the Derby I have also had a few quid TDH at 16's for the Arc with the Lads who seem to be taking a stand against him in both the Derby and the Arc.
Hi Andrew, good to see you hold Prat Chapman in similar esteem to me.
There seems to be a love of the horse clouding the view of the recent form going on here
In part i would agree, although i would never let love of a horse rule my wallet
Her 2018 form is not so shabby and you still have to take into consideration her lack of fitness in both races. The Arc may not have been the strongest field, but no Arc is easy, there were enough group 1 winners way behind her and the form has already been franked by Magical at Ascot yesterday.
I was also all over her after Epsom 2017 with many posts on here, she won me a good few bob last year.
In part i would agree, although i would never let love of a horse rule my wallet
Her 2018 form is not so shabby and you still have to take into consideration her lack of fitness in both races. The Arc may not have been the strongest field, but no Arc is easy, there were enough group 1 winners way behind her and the form has already been franked by Magical at Ascot yesterday.
I was also all over her after Epsom 2017 with many posts on here, she won me a good few bob last year.
Hi Laurie,
MC reminds me of a typical Saturday afternoon betting shop punter.
I don't have an issue with some of his flamboyance (up to a point) although i hate his USA style of announcements at prize giving, but all this TDH good as Frankel and Cracksman best in the world is simply over-stated rubbish.
As for TDH, i wish you good luck, but if he wins any race over 12f next year i will streak down the Rowley mile, not a pretty sight
MC reminds me of a typical Saturday afternoon betting shop punter.
I don't have an issue with some of his flamboyance (up to a point) although i hate his USA style of announcements at prize giving, but all this TDH good as Frankel and Cracksman best in the world is simply over-stated rubbish.
As for TDH, i wish you good luck, but if he wins any race over 12f next year i will streak down the Rowley mile, not a pretty sight
Back to the Dewhurst. When this race comes around personally I'm just looking for something that can win an average Guineas. It would be nice to see a future Frankel but that's certainly not what I'm expecting. For those who are saying TDH could be up to winning an average Guineas I agree, but I also think Quorto could be. It seems to me though that he is not just being talked of as a potential Guineas winner, but a potential 'superstar'. Any unbeaten horse could potentially be a superstar but nothing he has done so far suggests he's that good.
As far as his staying prospects go there is a good article on ATR by Simon Rowlands. It's a very interesting area but not anything I claim to know much about.
http://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sectional-spotlight
As far as his staying prospects go there is a good article on ATR by Simon Rowlands. It's a very interesting area but not anything I claim to know much about.
http://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sectional-spotlight
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