Dewhurst Stakes (13th Oct)

Quorto not running - put away for season according to Godolphin.com

if my patron was sheikh mohammed and his horse won the national stakes . and with a profile like that , to milk the oil cow . i would do the same . why blow the bubble in a 2yo race . charlie will have a no expense spared ticket with  this horse .if hes well beat in the dewhurst that bubble bursts . he might of won it , but , there is no upside for the trainer to contest it

No he didn't. Said he may go Dewhurst or may be put away till next year.

He has a group 1 to his name now, whereas Too Darn Hot still needs to win one as a two year old to enhance his stallion value.

yeah and o'brien seems to dominate every two year old race going over here, i mentioned on the other forum it's surprising that anyone even backs anything else

AOB: "The plan is to run Anthony Van Dyck (AVD), while Christmas and Mohawk are also possibles. It is quite possible Ten Sovereigns will go to The Dewhurst, and a decision will be made probably on wednesday."

I'd be surprised to see AVD running here given he seemed to need further than 7f when he last ran. If so, who'd AOB have for The Vertem Futurity over 8f at Doncaster on 27th Oct?

I think unless AOB wants a definitive answer to the stamina of Ten Sovereigns early for race planning prior to The 2000G he'd not run the horse against Too Darn Hot (TDH) and Sangarius here so soon post his previous race; Anthony Van Dyck (AVD), I thought, was rushed-up to be closer to his pacesetter - he lacked pace (to me) as a top Gp 1 7f or miler. I thought The Vertem Futurity over a mile would be more his cup of tea similar to Saxon Warrior.

To forfeit a race that AVD would/could win ie The Vertem Futurity or run against TDH and S here, no brainer for me; I think AVD is AOB's best bullet for The 2000G unless Ten Sovereigns proves his stamina beyond any doubt. Opinions, opinions, opinions,...that is the conundrum, and joy of horse betting!

IF Ten Sovereigns stays then he wins in my view. It's not impossible that we could have two 2yos run to that mark over 7f in the same season but it's unlikely. Big problem is I just don't know if he'll stay. Plus he ended up having a bit of a hard race with Jash fighting him to the line, so it seems a quick reappearance but must be they think he's taken the race well.

If he doesn't stay (or even run) I have TDH next best but 4lbs behind. Even though he'd be the one most likely to capitalise on TS's lack of stamina I'm against him here. I think most horses who've run back to back speed figures in the manner he has will go backwards next time. Even though I think he'll probably come up just short for the Guineas I'd have still put him away for the season.

He could be tougher than most or he could even improve again being such a young inexperienced horse, and the last report I saw said he was going well at home so they could be proved right to run him. I'm playing the percentage call though and the plan is to lay him.

Holy Moly, still no market for this race on the Exchange unlike online fixed odds bookies. I understand AOB still has 8 entered, but how can it compete if prices are still no up 4 days to race?

Surprisingly Anthony Van Dyck is a confirmed runner, and the race just got more interesting; a yardstick for Too Darn Hot to Quorto.

I hope Anthony Van Dyck would still go for The Vertem Futurity on 27th Oct.

Better for me that TS isn't running as can lay TDH even cheaper. If he is below par then there are more dangers than just TS.

Andrew, if TDH runs to the form of his last two wins he'll probably win. At least the others will need to improve. He's 10/11 now and on form I'd say that's a fair enough price. I just know it's very difficult for most horses to achieve what he's being asked to do. I make him 9/4 against just to run to his best form regardless of winning the race. If he does run below par it depends by how much but AVD is the one most likely to capitalise.

I can't get a proper handle yet on Sangarius. For me he needs to progress significantly but he seems highly thought of and open to improvement so I'm hoping he's another running for me if AVD can't replicate his latest run.

Stoute horse will eat TDH on Saturday

That was a bullish statement. Coincidentally, Sly boosting the price of TDH from 'evens' to 2/1, anyone managed to get on?

Appropriately named, appropriate(ly) performance perhaps or hyped...we shall know by 15:05 tomorrow barring a delay.

I don't see that many variables in the race. It will be run at a strong pace, a Dewhurst that lives up to its billing as a race that exposes inexperienced types, so Sangarius is very unlikely to be able to win (twice raced Listed winner?). Advertise is unlikely to fancy the final furlong even if he is a genuine group 1 colt, which is uncertain. The National Stakes was a true group 1 test over the trip for me, and I think AVD will replicate his run. Basically, it comes down to whether Too Darn Hot has enough experience and class to overcome AVD, who will be staying on strongly up the hill. I think TDH might just be able to do it, but that's the only question mark for me. Only two can win it, and depending what sort of punter you are, you could back AVD alone as the value in the race, or you could make a better than evens profit on AVD whilst saving on TDH if desired.

Been very impressed with TDH & if handling this very fast ground (at this time of yr?) I think he will win again 2day. Odds on not my thing, but hope he wins well, he looks classy.

I think Christmas will make the running to ensure the race is run at a decent pace in order to give his stablemate AVD the best chance of winning; Dettori will be handy (unlike previous) and challenge 1f-->2f out, if ground is not an impediment. I think Sangarius will not be placed either; 2.9 and 1.8 for places look tempting (personally).

Hands up, I thought TDH had likely hit a peak but even an early reflection on today's card tells he's improved a bit again. After thinking he was done for midway through the race he ended up winning quite impressively and burning my fingers. I can obviously see why he's been shortened so much for the Guineas, because if you take the form literally he's better than Quorto or Calyx. A quick comparison of the times makes it a good one but nothing out of this world. Personally I don't think AVD was quite at the level he was in the National Stakes, but others will differ.

So while I'm now (finally) convinced TDH is up to winning an average Guineas I'd still only rate him very similar to Quorto.  Where he may have an advantage is, given his profile, he might even improve again and then there's the matter of whether you place more trust in Gosden or Godolphin to deliver.

Regarding Gosden and the Guineas, even though I was implying Gosden could be trusted more it has to be remembered he hasn't trained a Guineas winner yet. I'd say he should have already won one with Kingman, and while the jockey got most of the criticism for that I thought it was Gosden who was at fault for allowing the horse to do too much in the Greenham beforehand. A mistake Coolmore wouldn't make.

I think Calyx and Ten Sovereigns are better than both TDH and Quorto but probably unlikely stayers. Too Darn Hot is 7/4 and Quorto is 8/1. I'd say it should be much much closer than that. Apart from thinking AVD didn't replicate his National Stakes run I don't think Advertise quite stayed the 7f. I'm in no rush to back either TDH or Quorto at current prices but may back either of them even at shorter prices nearer the time depending on what happens in the spring.