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King George Chase - Kempton
King George Chase - Kempton
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Replies: 194
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Laying the hind legs off double shuffle.
Quite a joke entry. |
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Took on the favourite with Bristol De Mai, Whisper and Thistlecrack.
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Took on the favourite with Bristol De Mai, Whisper and Thistlecrack.
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The more I look at this the more Thistlecrack looks a screaming ew bet.
Good winner last year, his hd defeat was to a superb stayer & his return on hurdles was virtually schooling in public. Huge at 8/1 & I suspect he may be plunged on. |
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Well done 'woodmanchester', 33/1 Might Bite!
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With the defeat of BDM and £1m bonus no longer, will Top Notch be campaigned over 3m next? 100 here, if so.
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yeah very well done woodmanchester
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Calisto-moon
Re Double Shuffle: Twitchy bum time? Hats off to Henderson. That horse was ridden like it wasnt in a race, let it do its own thing, kept wide and just jump, jump, jump. My immediate impression regarding the Gold Cup was that he was out on his feet and wont get up the hill but in hindsight the Gold Cup will be a different day on different ground on a different course and the tactics will be different again. What a feckin trainer he is. |
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I think the winner Might Bite (MB), despite looking as if he was coming back to the 2nd and 3rd at the finish, he was idling infront after leading from 3 fences out. If he could be towed, and only let loose at the penultimate or last fence he would run all the way up the Cheltenham hill, I believe; 8/1 before the King George Chase and 13/2 post the race is an unbelievable price, I reckon.
Either Sizing John and more importantly Yorkhill has to win the Lexus on thursday otherwise the price of MB will surely contract. |
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Callisto-moon
24 Dec 17 19:28 Joined: 08 Aug 16 | Topic/replies: 1,246 | Blogger: Callisto-moon's blog Laying the hind legs off double shuffle. Quite a joke entry. i can only think this was a brutal result callisto unless it was just the win lay...still fair play to have such a strong opinion so try and keep your chin up if your not hanging from it, i think i would be and my rope recently is very well used  |
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harry ! callisto moon aka moneytree is rumoured to do the oppositt of what he tips i. "i am laying the hind legs off double shuffle " probably translates to "i am backing the ar$e off double shuffle win and place " and when you think about it you would have to put untold money on to win a cup of tea who would have that kind of bankroll ? ........my guess is he backed the horse win and place and god knows what price he was on here think i saw 150 win market a few days ago ,he has had a right touch on the place market !
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Definitely a weak race and everything went perfectly for Might Bite - got a nice tow from BDM and jumped very well with no serious errors and yet he was all out to beat two exposed types. Not saying he can't win a Gold Cup and at least he hasn't been made a silly short price.
A load of the runners should not have been there and were just vanity runners for their dumb trainers and owners. Whisper should never have run as he is rubbish right handed (why not just wait for the Pillar? Sorry Nicky but that was a dumb decsion?). Fox Norton should never have run over 3m. Tizzard doesnt seem to have a clue. He ran perfectly OK in the Tingle Creek but for the mistake at the first which put him on the back foot and may well have cost him the win. Should have aimed at Leopardstown today or waited for the Clarence House. And BDM is a Haydock heavy ground small field bully and would have been better off aiming at the Welsh National if they wanted to run him over Christmas as it's a good race for front running sloggers (Carvills Hill and Native River won it under top weight). All the waffle about the £1m bonus doesn't wash - though NTD has a habit of chasing rainbows. The importance of acting at the track was highlighted by the excellent runs of the second and third who have superb records at Kempton. We hear about it all the time when it comes to Cheltenham but nobody seems to think it is important at Kempton - Imperial Commander and even Best Mate were classic examples of horses who ran way below their best at Kempton. |
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Fine post Uncle.....agree with all of that,form wise surely more questions than answers?
The official ratings pre race (OR) M BITE 162 D SHUFFLE 151 T F TWO 164 TH CRACK 170 WHISPER 169 B D MAI 173 F NORTON 168 T FLUIDE 153 It will interesting to see what ratings are given following this race. Clearly if we use the official handicappers ratings,something is not quite right? Three of the lowest rated horses in the race,have filled the first three places. For anyone using the OR, this race and the result begs the question,just exactly who is responsible for these ratings,and how can they be so wildly wrong in this instance? This is not new territory,punters and form students alike,have been questioning the marks given to some horses,and the consequences these inflated marks have on racing in general. Level weights graded races are different,but the continuing over-reaction to some performances inevitably must spill over into handicapping,about time this was addressed. Couple points regarding the race,watching it back without the sound,(the modern day commentator has in many cases become a form/race tactic expert),that the front three at the finnish all raced wide of the running rail,whether de boing boing had done his homework,it was noticeable up the final straight how he kept MB away from the far rail. This looked to be the case in the 3m novice as well,F Windfall on the outside of the field travelled really well before falling,was the ground better a few yards off the rail? The other point follows on from Uncles post,just how many horses are better going right handed than left? Anyone looked at their own results over a period of time?,something I touched on last year in the ante-post thread,I think far less horses appear to run to form going right handed,than left. Not got any conclusive figures yet,any thoughts welcomed. Plenty to ponder after this race. |
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There is not much wrong with the form . Double Shuffle was expected to improve and he did. The winner ran to around 3 lb below his previous best.
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I also think Mite Bite was at it a long way out whereas the second and third were held up off the pace. Bristol was making mistakes up top as well so on the face of it, they were probably going a fair lick. Impressive win, well done all winners.
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imo mite bite is better going left handed ,ok i know he was hosing up in the feltham but that was not the best race tbh ,also the undulations at chelt seem to suit better than a flatish track so could improve a lot going back left handed .
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Right-handed or left-handed track,...please do not even go there. It is sufficiently difficult to pick winners on level weight, conducive ground and formlines without bringing an additional factor into the equation; either a horse wins or it does not, all things being equal. Keep it simple!
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impossible123 29 Dec 17 16:30
Right-handed or left-handed track,...please do not even go there. Either a horse wins or it does not, all things being equal. If ever a post was made to make someone look an utter idiot (not that he needs much help) this is it.  |
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Oh dear! A new sponsor for the race - it's 'Ladcrookes' for the next 5 years. Will anyone be able to get on after their PR Eclipse revelation at Sandown recently? Why does horse racing not able to attract sponsorship other than from bookies? Is it because the bookies are the only entities able to outbid unrelated/external entities?
Or is the game too toxic only the bookies can afford and too willing to be associated with? At this rate post my time following the sport horse racing/betting could account for a tiny portion of their business model. |
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I hope Altior turns up for this year's renewal as he'd be very special come Cheltenham esp if he wins this well. And, along with Tiger Roll (National) these two National Hunt behemoths could once again help to light up the entire jump season; Klassical Dream could be another one, and Samcro if he regains his early promise prior to his lung infection diagnosis.
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I would love to see a market to name the winning trainer. I would be on Nicholls but which horse? Cyrname might not stay but he would beat Clan des Obeaux if he does imo. Both have the KG as their main target which helps while Altior might stay over 2 miles again. Colin Tizzard has 3 or 4 that could be placed but none of them look quite good enough to win.
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This is the race earmarked for Altior unless he bombs out in the Christy Chase over 2m 5f at Ascot on Nov 23 - if so, back to Champion Chase, according to Hendo. Otherwise The Gold Cup would be under serious consideration.
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Yes I read that yesterday, I can see where they are coming from as he does seem to take a while to get into top gear.
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I hope he wins the Christy Chase over 2m 5f well on Nov 23rd, and heads to Kempton on Boxing Day with confidence - he already has class in abundance; 11/4 is the present price. Then the Gold Cup (hopefully).
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The Flat season is over (just Doncaster next week) and forget about Breeders Cup. So, let's focus on the sticks. Will Altior be just as accomplished over this distance as he's been over 16f? He's going to the Christy Chase next month as a prelude (if it goes well) for this race; he's 3.65 to back here.
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the form of the jlt won by defi de seul is looking red hot ,lostingtranslation ,vindication ( off 151)
)both winning since and capeland a long way back would have gone close yesterday at ascot but for the chaos at the last . |
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lostingtrans goes in again at carlilse
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A very good display of jumping from Lostintranslation, and he easily overwhelmed his oppositions. He's destined here post Betfair Chase then
the Blue Riband - £1m bonus if victorious in all 3. I think this trip might still be too sharp for him, but I do like him a lot for The Gold Cup at Cheltenham next March. |
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looking at the possibles we have the front 2 not proven over the trip, last years winner looks pretty solid but around 6/1 after a good run in ire , mullins dont send many to kempton ,lostintrans also a bit short imo, la bague au r dint cover herself in glory getting weight on sat , frodon trip? mite bite issues + hard race in last years gold cup seems to have left a mark ? bris de mai had a few gos at the kg , big price tho and if wins betfair chase price drops have had a few she kles on .
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Not very original but I took the 7/1 on last years winner straight after his good run at Down Royal.
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altior and cyrname clash at ascot over 2.4 miles if one gets well beat by the other chances are wont line up in this .
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Will continue to back Cyrname until he is beaten. Have had a speculative punt on Bristol De Mai at 50-1 which I thought was way too big if he turns up. May have another dip once the final line up is known.
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Cyrname (15/8) is shading Lostintranslation (2/1) for favouritism; Cyrname the victor over Altior has never done the distance; Lostintranslation look classy when winning the Betfair Chase at Haydock over course specialist Bristol De Mai. He's also the only horse eligible for £1m bonus if winning here and the Gold Cup too.
At Leopardstown on 28th the Savils Chase could see the return of Kemboy (2/1) and Al Boum Photo (9/1, Gold up winner); Presenting Percy (9/2) and Road To Respect (5/1) are also the possible runners. Also in Ireland on Boxing Day at Limerick in the Matchbook Novice Chase Samcro (10/11), Faugheen (11/4) and Laurina (7/2) are possibles - a big pointer for the Arkle/JLT/RSA. |
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I am not convinced that Cyrname will get the trip . For me it is a race to leave alone .
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not sure why lostintranslation is running in this . i would go pillar chase and gold cup hes surely the gold cup winner if he only keeps his mojo . your definitely risking his confidence running on a park course on good ground right handed . in my tiny mind connections are making a big mistake . i too dont think cyrname will stay , which has been emphasised by nicholls suggesting cobdens choice is tighter than ruby thinks . clan des obeaux for me . best of luck
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have had a few quid on footpad and at 50s for the gold cup also just in case . what does cyrname do ? will he press on from the front or be ridden with more restraint with the trip an unknown .
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Lostintranslation is running solely for that £1m bonus offered for winning Betfair, this and Gold Cup. Otherwise I'd not have thought we'd see him here if he'd lost at Haydock. I'd go with Clan Des Obeaux over Cyrname who beat a a tired Altior on bad ground who was closing at the line; Cyrname might not stay this trip if ground is testing again.
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Are we expecting any Irish runners?
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I think Footpad is the only probable as it's Munir and Souede owned and Jacob rides with Walsh having retired.
But why Is Cyrname such a short price fav against Lostintranslation and Clan Des Obeaux (CDO) ? A horse that has never done the distance against a stayer, and last year's winner respectively. But, for his defeat in Ireland CDO would be a lot shorter. |
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The ground is soft at the moment with heavy rain forecast for the next 2 days with light showers thro' next week until day of race. I'd think very soft going come the race.
Not good news for connections of Cyrname, I'd imagine. |