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impossible123
14 Jun 16 19:32
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Date Joined: 07 Sep 15
| Topic/replies: 19,739 | Blogger: impossible123's blog
What a performance from Caravaggio!

On the wrong or slower side, tacked across, yet won with something to spare, and on soft ground....but he's supposed to prefer good or better ground.

I think backing him now for this race next year could be rewarding, all being well, and will run regardless of ground unlike Gleneagles, Minding or Ballydoyle.

Best price is 6/1 but as short as 4/1 with some bookies.

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By:
impossible123
When: 14 Jun 16 19:36
Looking forward to the 2000G trials eg Greenham or Dewhurst race.
By:
jamesp
When: 14 Jun 16 23:46
There is no denying that Caravaggio was a very impressive winner of the Coventry Stakes and he is clearly a very smart colt, but there must be a big doubt about him getting a mile next year, so the single-figure prices for the Guineas at this stage are incredibly poor value (in my opinion).  Caravaggio is very speedily bred - he's by the speed influence Scat Daddy (whose best European runners to date have been the sprinters No Nay Never and Acapulco) out of a US 6.5f stakes winner, which makes him closely related to a couple of US dirt winners over sprint distances and half-brother to My Jen (US 5.5-6.5f dirt winner).  Caravaggio's first two wins were over 5f, and after his Curragh win Aidan O'Brien said "I think he'll get six".  He was thinking of running the colt in the Norfolk Stakes (over 5f) rather than the Coventry.  This horse is so fast (both at home and on the track) that it will be surprising (to me) if he lasts a mile next year.  If he runs in the National Stakes or the Dewhurst this year over 7f, that will give us a chance to assess his stamina limitations.  I certainly wouldn't be tempted to back him for the Guineas at this stage.
By:
impossible123
When: 15 Jun 16 10:26
jamesp,

I agree with the majority of your post. However, Caravaggio settled really well in the race, quickened not only to go past horses on his side and tacked over to his right (far side) to beat Mehmas who was going exceedingly well and Psychedelic Funk, two main protagonists with solid forms on either side of the water, easily; Caravaggio did not front run like Shalaa, and this was achieved on soft ground.

In a nutshell the form is solid and Caravaggio settled really well and was very impressive - he could have won further if he'd been racing on the far side. He's also versatile, ground wise.
By:
jamesp
When: 15 Jun 16 12:32
impossible123, I agree with your description of Caravaggio's performance: it looked a classy race (well up to usual Coventry standard) and he seems to be an exceptional colt with a fine turn of foot.  His ability to settle in his races may help him to get 7f+.  It's possible that he will stay a mile, but I would want to see him tackle top class opposition over 7f before considering him as a Guineas candidate.
By:
Madhu
When: 15 Jun 16 13:37
Caravaggio's performance in the Coventry was impressive but Scat Daddy has no chance at all of being the sire of a 2000 guineas winner.
By:
impossible123
When: 15 Jun 16 13:40
jamesp,

I agree....his ability to settle in his races augers well staying the Guineas distance next year. Nothing is a given but I'm hopeful; first, get the trials over, if so, price will be significantly less than current of 5/1 I firmly believe.
By:
eric_morris
When: 15 Jun 16 16:03
Slow time, slow ground, might have handled it better than others. Not a great quality Coventry imo showed an impressive turn of foot on slow ground. No relevance at all to the Guineas in nearly a years time over a mile on quickish ground. 4s jokeshop price.
By:
eric_morris
When: 15 Jun 16 16:04
Antepost is dead, if this isnt enough proof of an extreme over reaction inspired by greed.
By:
eric_morris
When: 15 Jun 16 17:07
Didnt even keep his balance drifted all over the shop, how is that going to help on quicker ground in the dip at Newmarket under pressure for another 2 furlongs against the best Frankels staying on to the line?
By:
impossible123
When: 15 Jun 16 17:31
Madhu,

I hear what you are saying. Here's hoping!
By:
harry callaghan
When: 15 Jun 16 18:22
it wouldn't surprise me if he ended up at the breeders cup juvenile later in the season, he reminds me a lot of johannesburg arguably o'briens best juvenile in my book, who actually sired scat daddy... shame about scat daddy passing he was starting to prove a classy sire, still it looks like he has left a top class colt to replace him, he looks a proper 2 year old to me at this stage



Madhu
15 Jun 16 14:37
Joined: 04 Aug 06
| Topic/replies: 557 | Blogger: Madhu's blog
Caravaggio's performance in the Coventry was impressive but Scat Daddy has no chance at all of being the sire of a 2000 guineas winner.


how many goes has he had? he only recently started racing his progeny over here, anyway we will never know now what sort of turf sire he would of made as he is dead...nonsense post tbh
By:
Figgis
When: 15 Jun 16 21:10
Purely from a time angle I have it as good as the Dawn Approach win. I think he's already a better 2yo than Air Force Blue was. As to the Guineas trip, I've no idea at this stage, Dawn Approach improved again over 7f and, like jamesp, I'll reserve judgement until he tackles 7f.
By:
Madhu
When: 15 Jun 16 21:35
harry callaghan-

Respectfully American bred horses do not do well in the 2000 gns, my point was analogous to War Front and Air Force Blue, and Scatt Daddy breeds speed. I did not know he had died (RIP).
By:
impossible123
When: 16 Jun 16 08:40
The next test for Caravaggio will be the Pheonix or National Stakes in July or September in Ireland; should he make one of the 2000G trials unbeaten his price will probably be 1/2 of present; post winning (if so) I'd expect his price for the main event nearer evens or odds-on.
By:
Charlton2005
When: 17 Jun 16 06:45
2 2000 winners from the coventry in 40 years and you think 4/1 is value? jesus christ you've got a long way to go
By:
cryoftruth
When: 17 Jun 16 21:16
Charlton.

I tend to agree. I personally would not be mad keen to go in at 16/1. Chamces are Aiden has another 6 better at home. 4/1 is taking the micky big time.
By:
Figgis
When: 17 Jun 16 22:19
Maybe O'Brien will come up with a better Guineas prospect by the end of the season but I doubt he'll have many more. All the signs read that this is their number one. With the notable exception of Footstepsinthesand most of Coolmore's Guineas winners have had a run by as early as May or even April. Therefore it's certainly not unusual for them to start at sprint trips, both George Washington and Rock of Gibraltar raced over the minimum. Caravaggio has been hammered in the betting on all three starts, going off as short as 1/3 on debut. This is in keeping with most of their Guineas winners, usually when they have a good one they know very early on, that wasn't really the case with Air Force Blue.

More importantly the horse has just put up a genuine Gp1 2yo performance in a Gp2 race. Well above average for the race and up there with the better recent winners of the Coventry like Henrythenavigator, Canford Cliffs and Dawn Approach. None of this would make me even contemplate taking the current price as a lot can happen between now and next spring. He may not stay beyond sprint trips, he might not train or could have bad luck with an injury. At this stage of the season though he's as good as you could hope for in a possible Guineas winner.
By:
eric_morris
When: 18 Jun 16 08:41
Dawn Approach was 16/1 after winning the Coventry. This haarse on the other hand has been priced to give you no chance of making a profit antepost in the long term. You might as well give up now rather than take 3/4/5s at this stage.
By:
sintonian
When: 18 Jun 16 12:11
It's a fckuing rancid price.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 18 Jun 16 21:30
It's not often I come out for eric but he's spot on here.  All reasoned analysis on Caravaggio is rendered pointless by the price.  One of the worst I've seen in a long time of ante-post punting.  No sensible discussion can possibly lead to a conclusion that makes him a bet for the Guineas, in mid-June, at 4/1.
By:
brain dead jockeys
When: 18 Jun 16 23:50
air force blue take 2..........probably a sprinter
By:
impossible123
When: 19 Jun 16 08:41
Caravaggio has a high cruising speed; Caravaggio is happy being held up and does/has not run freely; Caravaggio has won over 5f and 6f, both times on very soft ground and can quicken off it too.

Caravaggio has the temperament of Minding, hence I'm more than hopeful he'll stay 8f despite being by Scat Daddy (6.6f) but does have stamina on his dam side (9.6f) unless the more knowledgeable say otherwise.
By:
jamesp
When: 20 Jun 16 01:38
As I said in my earlier post, Caravaggio is very speedily bred and there must be a big doubt about him lasting a mile.  The sire Scat Daddy (sire of last week's hugely impressive Queen Mary Stakes winner Lady Aurelia) is a speed influence, and the dam Mekko Hokte was a US dirt 6.5f stakes winner at two (Delta Miss Stakes at Louisiana Downs), who didn't train on terribly well - her best performances as a three-year-old were placed efforts in stakes races over 6f (beaten 8 lengths) and 8f (beaten over 10 lengths).  Mekko Hokte's dam Aerosilver (by Relaunch) was successful over a mile (on dirt) as a four-year-old.  Caravaggio is closely related to Ninja Blade (6f dirt winner) and Africanist (6-8f dirt winner), and he's a half-brother to My Jen, a successful dirt sprinter (best win in a Gr.2 over 6.5f as a three-year-old).  The only immediate family member who has shown some stamina is his half-sister Susie's Baby (by Giant's Causeway), who was placed over a mile as a juvenile and won a minor 11f race at Indiana Downs (on firm) last year.  Caravaggio has a dirt sprinter's pedigree, so the single-figure prices for the Guineas at this stage are incredibly poor value (in my opinion).  I imagine that he'll be kept to 6f for most of this season, although given his pedigree it would be no surprise to see him line up later for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (on dirt), a race his grandfather Johannesburg won in 2001 (following three Gr.1 wins over 6f).
By:
The Headmaster
When: 20 Jun 16 09:28
imp, are we debating whether Caravaggio is a good horse or whether he's a bet for the Guineas at current odds?

They are very different questions.
By:
impossible123
When: 20 Jun 16 13:31
The Headmaster,
"imp, are we debating whether Caravaggio is a good horse or whether he's a bet for the Guineas at current odds?"

I guess it's both but mainly the latter as the former has been proven post The Coventry at Ascot after beating the 'cream of his age group' easily. At 4/1 the price is skinny I understand but was still backable at 6/1 (yesterday) because, assuming all is well and victorious, post The Pheonix or National Stakes his price will shorten again. And if Caravaggio wins one of the Guineas trials next year eg The Greenham or Craven, his price, I think, will be shorter than even money.

Personally, I was very impressed with the way he, despite racing on the slower side, managed to tack over to the far side and beat Mehmas who'd looked the assured winner, cosily on very soft ground. I understand on breeding Caravaggio is not assured to stay the Guineas distance of 8f but his temperament and proven ability to stay 6f on very soft ground going away at the finish gives me enormous confidence that he'll.

In a nutshell, 6/1 or even 4/1 now could eventually turn out to a 'shrewd' bet, all things being equal.
By:
jamesp
When: 20 Jun 16 14:01
Good luck with that, impossible123, but if I were you I'd think about laying off your bet on here after the Phoenix Stakes (if that's his next intended race).  I'm not going to get involved in the 2000 Guineas market unless something looks seriously overpriced later in the season.  The bookmakers and Aidan O'Brien between them have simply killed off the market.
By:
Figgis
When: 20 Jun 16 14:21
For me there is no value in his current price at 6/1 but I wouldn't say he was vastly underpriced, I'd make him about an 8/1 chance. That's the price I think reflects his chance at this stage, obviously not the price I'd bet him.
By:
jamesp
When: 20 Jun 16 14:46
It's difficult to know what price I would offer if I were a bookmaker.  If people are prepared to back Caravaggio at around 6/1, then I'd certainly be looking to lay him up to my maximum.  Given the horse's stamina doubts, I think the current odds seriously overestimate his chance.
By:
Figgis
When: 20 Jun 16 15:14
if Caravaggio wins one of the Guineas trials next year eg The Greenham or Craven

Very little prospect of that happening with the yard concerned.
By:
impossible123
When: 20 Jun 16 16:09
Figgis

"Laying off" - that is my intention, how much....will be result dependent. I believe Caravaggio could be as good as Minding; I also believe he'll stay the Guineas mile given his temperament.

I also meant The Dewhurst.
By:
cryoftruth
When: 21 Jun 16 20:32
4/1 a shrewd bet.

Well whatever happens that is madness.

His true odds of actually turning uo next May are probably about 10/1.
By:
jm123
When: 21 Jun 16 21:07
Carvaggio as a Guineas winner is joke. The price just puts it into the realms of what a great bet...as a LAY. And yet it will get shorter to LAY so hold tight and lay it to the max over the winter. You can pick your Classic winners on pedigrees and this thing is another AirForceBlue (precious dirt bred short runner who wont go on).
By:
Jack Bauer '24'
When: 21 Jun 16 21:41
He's a very doubtful stayer in my view and will probably be best suited by sprint distances.
By:
impossible123
When: 21 Jun 16 22:32
No AFB but Minding or Kingman I hope!
By:
Figgis
When: 21 Jun 16 23:07
Of what I've seen of him physically he looks more than a sprinter to me. Beforehand both trainer and jockey had reservations about the 6f trip but specifically because of the ground, which was fairly testing, however he not only lasted the trip but got it extremely well in a very good time for conditions. What was also noticeable was how well he switched off early on towards the rear. I imagine he performed better than they'd even hoped for in that respect. O'Brien sounds reasonably optimistic about his chances of eventually getting the mile. The Coventry is a race he targets with horses usually expected to get further, not out and out speedsters. Whether the horse will train on is another matter.

I totally understand people saying the price is poor value, I agree he isn't a bet, but I'd say he's the best 2yo in years that O'Brien has produced at this stage of the season, most of the others in the past tended to go on to be decent 3yos so personally I won't be dismissing him.
By:
brain dead jockeys
When: 21 Jun 16 23:42
sprinter, sprinter, sprinter...............AP should run him in heinz and middle park and retire him.
By:
impossible123
When: 22 Jun 16 09:38
Figgis,

That's what I banking on ie best 2yr old seen out by a long chalk, cool temperament, ability to switch off in races,....the unknown is his stamina to stay 8f given pedigree but I'm more than hopeful; Caravaggio could turn out to be very good - maybe not Frankel - at least Caravaggio is not keen and/or pulls. As to whether the horse will train on that is not Caravaggio specific but again I'm hopeful but we'll know when the "dogs" bark, or not!
By:
Fashion Fever
When: 22 Jun 16 12:25
AFB appeared not to get the stiff 6F in the on quick ground in the coventry, but appeared to be stronger horse the secong half of season thou the coventry run was always in back of mind going a mile.

this lad got it easy and on bad ground

he will be 6/4 after he hacks up in the dewhurst, wouldnt wanna lay him at 5/1.

Aidans comments to ger suggests he hasnt got anything better at home.
By:
cryoftruth
When: 22 Jun 16 13:31
If he hacks up in the Dewhurst he will be shorter than 6/4 maybe.

And he might be very good indeed.

He might keep on improving.

He might not have any decent oppostion from the many thousand other 2yos racing in Europe.

He might stay a mile very well.

He might act well on fast going as well as soft.

He might train on from 2 to 3 like Henrythenavigator - won the Coventry and the 2000 Guineas at a price significantly better than 4/1 I seem to recall.

He might turn up next May fit and well.

That's a load of maybe's to consider.

He would be worth a stab at 12/1 even though the Guineas is basically a year into the future and a small fraction of 2yos have even run yet.

But 4/1???? A bargain??

Not for me.
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