2017 2000 Guineas

I agree, there is no value to be extracted from the 1st 4 in the betting - it has long gone; only a win bet needs to be considered from these lot ie win or nothing.

james doyle on barney and de sousa on dream castle

there is no value to be extracted from the 1st 4

a win bet needs to be considered from these lot

Beginning to agree with A_T, these posts have got to be a wind-up

Looking at the race on Youtube you will see that Churchill looks about twice the size of Mehmas

Judging them on looks last year Churchill, a good looking, imposing 2yo, would easily come out on top. So it will be interesting to see how he compares this year.

He looks a different creature altogether. He's big, he's powerful, he has a good mind and he's a great mover. He's physically very big, but he's not a big long yoke, he's compact, strong and well made

Reading O'Brien's words it's difficult to know what to make of his physical progress. He starts off by saying he looks a different creature altogether, which is odd as he was always an eye-catcher, then follows it with a description that pretty much sums up the horse we saw last year.

It will also be interesting to see how the others look physically after their trials.

Graeme83
03 May 17 00:17
Joined: 21 Sep 07
| Topic/replies: 8,988 | Blogger: Graeme83's blog
I think Churchy will win convincingly. I just don't think there's anything there to give him a tough time. Easy to say a 6/4 shot will win, but i rate him highly, and i think he's a good level above these at a mile. I don't know where the e/w value could be. I'd say maybe Larchmont lad at 50/1. To me the prices of Barney, Em and Al wukair look too short.




churchill hasn't even raced at a mile yet graeme... i can only feel you have him in an acca graeme judging by your posts

anyway far to many posts seem very sure churchill will win this, personally after a lot of analysis i am very keen to get him as think his rating is a fraudulent one

i still can't make out how he has managed to get a rating of 122 and the racing post ratings have him running to 121 i just don't know where this rating has been found, i can only presume the national stakes beating the sprinter mehmas 4l has sealed the deal but the runner up is clearly better on better going and didn't get home that day...lockheed a nice type although beaten in lesser grade also holds the form down and who also would prefer better ground he ran third but both the placed horses prefer better ground and churchill clearly doesn't mind ground with cut

i have the dewhurst another brutal race to fathom ratings wise with the sprinter blue point holding down the form (he didn't get home) and the disappointing o'brien horse in second who rode the golden highway, with the dirt horse in 4th...personally i actually thought churchill was over the top at this point so fair play to him but it didn't deserve the rating...blue point is a nice type but is he a grade 1 horse, i don't think so, he may surprise me and turn out to be a good sprinter

people are talking of value then in the next breath say churchill is the play at 6/4 and this is no value unless you were on earlier, just doesn't make sense

i'm with howellsy in regards to horses backing up here with the trails ridiculously close to the classic...i am struggling to find a bet in the race and it isn't because of value it's because none of them look that good to me and are very closely matched...the trails are way to close to the race and some of the trails especially the craven were unsatisfactory with a golden highway in the nearside group and the horse larchmont lad, the horse in which i wanted to rate the race around, not staying and not racing with the nearside group

anyway i need to think but i think barney roy is going to be a very good horse and emminent looks like he is going to be nice type up in trip and he may surpise a few here tbh i actually think he is very likely to get in the 3...dream castle also looks like he is going to be good, maybe at sprinting distances, i like him for the jersey if he learns to settle

anyway i am with barney roy and if the race were in another week i'd have a good bet as i do believe he is very good and he would be value at 4/1 if this were the case, emminent also looks a sneaky good horse in my book but the craven is annoying me a tad and i'm not certain of the value of the race but i have a feeling it is ok...

al wukair form actually puts him top rated in my book but i am far from convinced about his pedigree, although the grandam must give you hope...he has had the perfect preparation and may just step up again, i at least have him as pretty solid with no excuses going into the race

I believe there was a tailwind when the Craven was run.
Can anyone confirm this, and if so how string, and what about the Greenham and Prix Djabel?
They were also fast times.  Was it  the conditions or the horse?

Rivet had excuses when behind Churchill and his price looks extravagant. I will be backing him e/w if he gets to post.

Harry i made my post as so many people are taking Churchill on. I don't know why you're saying everyone's on him.  I'm not too with stats and all the rest of it. Churchill has made the best impression on me by a distance. He looks classy and uncomplicated, and may be better suited to the mile than others.. I wish i had a decent voucher. I don't. They don't make noises about their horses as they're all filling their pockets. They've very little regard for anyone outwith their circle.

you would have made a good few bob over the last 20 yrs opposing the apob trained winter fav for the 200gns.

I agree with Graeme. Can't wait to see Churchill in the paddock he looks all class. He reminds me of Sangsters Revoque. Tough and hardy and does what it is needed. We all know that John Reid got stuck too far behind Entrepreneur on the day and was flying at the finish. I just hope Moore keeps him up there and if he does I think he will outstay this lot and win going away.

getting a sense of confidence from Ballydoyle around Churchill - this feels like a classic in which they definitely know which is their best rather than throwing a handful of darts hoping one hits the bullseye. their other entries look like little more than pacemakers which could be important if we get the now traditional Guineas split field

Only a short post required here - Al Wukair wins

will be all at sea on the Rowley Mile mate. Won't handle it and not good enough

al wukair will be the best of these by October, but can he handle the the dip

I'm with Graeme here, people are over analysing it as always.

Churchill was a champion last season and he'll be one this. People are comparing him to air force blue, but he ain't out of a sire who has a poor record with three year olds. he's by Galileo.

Even money shot on the day when Tabor gets stuck in. Get on now

St Nicholas Abbey was another champion 2yo who was well backed but proved a flop in the race. Churchill is currently a 6/4 chance (minus commission), what price do his fanciers think he should be?

On all known form what can beat him. Simples NOTHING

I wouldn't say NOTHING could beat him, but he deserves to be favourite.

freds in the studio Saturday morning will go 2/1

Just hope Ryan doesn't have an off day. If Lester was on it then the mortgage would be going on it. I expect to see a colt that has filled out well over the winter and looks a million. What can beat it?

Just hope Ryan doesn't have an off day. If Lester was on it then the mortgage would be going on it. I expect to see a colt that has filled out well over the winter and looks a million. What can beat it?

I dunno but the frankels seem to be beating everything at the moment and he has a big player in here so that would concern me a little

Can't have Eminent. Didn't travel great in the Craven but did well to stay on and win for an inexperienced horse. Should he be a 5/1 shot?. Not sure about that. I think he won't know what hit him when he sees Churchill galloping all over him.

not impressed with barney roy then? looked beat at the two furlong pole then stayed on really well. plus dream castle made a huge move in that race... if he can settle...

I seem to be talking myself out of my earlier argument that Churchill was past the post

I'm sitting on vouchers at 12/1 and 6/1, and I hope the Coolmore boys do get stuck in on race day; two reservations,...possible firm ground and lack of pace.

Go and collect Impossible

I always considered St Nicholas Abbey a Derby horse rather than a Guineas type and had the same opinion about Australia. They managed to land both with another Derby type in Camelot but failed with the other two.

Churchill is a miler or possible 10 furlong horse in my view and will love the strongly run mile in the Guineas and is very much like Gleneagles in that he is a workmanlike type who only does enough so it is therefore difficult to rate their ability accurately. The same arguments that Gleneagles form was not that good were made by some two years ago.

How Australia got so close in the Guineas was astonishing. This lad a true miler and will destroy this lot.

I don't think I've seen anyone on here say Churchill does not deserve to start fav, the arguments against him are that he doesn't deserve to be so short, or that he hasn't got a better chance than his price so isn't a bet. I take it those who think he's virtually past the post think he should be long odds on?

I wouldn't back him now because I think you'd get a bigger price in running. 5/4 is tight for a guineas

I think there's two scenarios with this horse. I don't see him just breezing through and winning on the snaff I think it will be tough if he wins either way. The horse only just does enough.

Either he out battles them in the final couple of furlongs;

Or when they get to the business end of the race and Ryan asks him he finds precious little, us Churchill backers have indeed done our money as he gets exposed as a two year old paper tiger and we curse ourselves that we were stupid enough to get sucked in by the hype again

As often happens with these threads they get split into two camps, the will win/won't win camp and the everything has a price camp. I'd lay an even money shot if I thought it should be more like 2/1, it doesn't mean I think the horse can't win. It means I think it would win 1 in 3 instead of the 1 in 2 its price suggests.

well I'm with your in general figgis as have been burnt on enough of these "certs" over the years

if I haven't learnt by now when will I learn?

I do have a feeling that Churchill will win though. So I'd hate to be against him and he pops up and wins and proves my initial assessment correct.

But I agree with you that given the ammunition set against him, 5/4 can't objectively be a great a price.

LR, I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see him win even though I don't rate him much better than the winners of the trials we've just seen. If he improves just a few pounds from last year it would put him ahead of them. Even if he's just stood still over the winter he could win, as it's possible the next three in the betting could disappoint next time (although I'm hoping at least one of them doesn't and can progress) as they all had fairly tough races. I still don't rate him such a short price though. I don't buy into the argument that he just does enough. The races where he appeared to just do enough (most of his races) were quite slowly run affairs, so he wasn't likely to win by a wide margin. The National Stakes was different as it was well run so we got to fully see what he was made of. He was made to race and really had to battle, the victory only became comfortable when Mehmas capitulated when his stamina ran out.

You seem to be contradicting yourself a little. If the races were slowly run and he was unlikely to win by a wide margin, how can you be confident that your rating of his true ability is accurate?

I think he will show improved form given a strongly run race.

If the races were slowly run and he was unlikely to win by a wide margin, how can you be confident that your rating of his true ability is accurate

Because I'm not rating him on them, I'm rating him on the National Stakes, which I referred to.

I see, how much better did you rate him in the National Stakes compared to his other races?

Thanks to a 2011 Nick Mordin article here are a few 2yo champions that ran in the 2000 Guineas

1990 Machiavellian 2nd
1993 Zafonic 1st
1994 Grand Lodge 2nd
1995 Celtic Swing 2nd
1996 Alhaarth 4th
1997 Revoque 2nd
1998 Xaar 4th
1999 Mujahid 3rd
2001 Minardi 3rd
2006 George Washington 1st
2007 New Approach 2nd
2009 Mastercraftsman 5th
2010 St Nicholas Abbey 6th

Since then Frankel, Dawn Approach and Gleneagles have all won.

I see, how much better did you rate him in the National Stakes compared to his other races?

I didn't put a proper rating on most of his races as I figured they weren't true reflections and he was obviously better than the bare results. I was a bit negative about his Chesham win as I thought he still should've been capable of a bit more if he was as good as they thought, although I did have him improving 12lbs on that when he was properly tested in the National Stakes.

Were in for a cracking tight finish imo. On the basis that Al Wukair has achieved his wins and consequent high ratings having only seriously being hit behind once (in the Deauville race and with an immediate response) I'm going with him. His Djebel win under an essentially hands and heels ride is very impressive. Plenty more to come and from a handler who knows the temps du jour. Remember theres plenty of champagne at home so he only sends one over when they're good enough ...

TMB...Laddies and Sky*** are not paying out (yet) but I hope Churchill credits himself well here regardless; there is still the Epsom Derby and/or St James's Palace Stakes to consider post this race, I believe.

Not going for the Dante then?

There are so many possible routes for Churchill post this race.

If Churchill wins handsomely, he could take in the Irish 2000G or straight to the Epsom Derby - no Dante; he could go for the Irish 2000G, bypass the Epsom Derby, and head straight to the St James's Palace Stakes.

If he is found wanting, and given an easy race here, he could take in the Dante, and if crediting himself well there, he could go for the Epsom Derby - the Irish 2000G and the St James's Palace would not be in his agenda, I think.

I'd like Churchill to win, with Lancaster Bomber 2nd - my forecast (here's hoping).

I suggest 18-1 4 places on the sportsbook is a great ew bet for Lancaster Bomber - his form is way more solid that most.  He stays and prefers fast ground.  Wont be Churchills pacemaker.

AIR FORCE BLUE FLIES HIGH AS EUROPEAN TWO-YEAR-OLD CLASSIFICATION FOR 2015 IS REVEALED / 19 JAN 16
"Air Force Blue, trained by Aidan O’Brien, has today been unveiled as the champion European two-year-old following his impressive win in the Group 1 Darley Dewhurst Stakes."
"It was the first time since Johannesburg in 2001 that any two-year-old has won three European Group 1 races, which marks Air Force Blue as a distinguished champion."
"Air Force Blue has much more the profile of a Guineas horse. In remembering Johannesburg’s three Group 1 wins one must bear in mind that he never won as a three-year-old, but there is every reason to think that Air Force Blue will measure up in the coming year.”

2yo champions that ran in the 2000 Guineas

2005 George Washington [1st]
2006 Teofilo [non-runner]
2007 New Approach [2nd]
2008 Mastercraftsman [5th]
2009 St Nicholas Abbey [6th]
2010 Frankel/Dream Ahead  [1st / non-runner]
2011 Camelot/Dabirsim [1st / non-runner]
2012 Dawn Approach [1st]
2013 Toormore [7th]
2014 Belardo [non-runner]
2015 Air Force Blue [12th]
2016 Churchill

O/T
I think Lancaster Bomber who is rated 2nd best officially to Churchill (6/4) and finished 2nd in the Dewhurst (universally accepted as the best form) but is presently trading at 42 here - must be value, surely?

Think if something is going to beat the fav it's going to be barney roy

just reading between the lines they are quietly confident of a huge run

whereas with the French horse and eminent they seem more hopeful than anything

lewisham ranger
My bet was placed last week on Al Wukair.
As a race approaches you often get a feeling from all the comments, betting, and reports.
I agreed with you about Barney Roy.  He is the horse that has the confidence.

After the Greenham Hannon commented that their horses often come on for the run, mentioning the improvement Sky Lantern and Night of Thunder made after being beaten in their trials. I also remember the yard's winners Tirol and Don't Forget Me improving after their trial wins. If I thought Barney Roy could make similar progress he'd be a good bet here. However, it sounded as though even Hannon didn't really know how close to full fitness BR was. Hopefully he won't be another Toormore, who went backwards after winning his trial.

Sorry, Don't Forget Me was beaten in his trial, only Tirol won.

Why is Al Wukair not in the Oddschecker list?

yes I thought that to hopefully just missed off ive not heard anything

Noticed that too - not that I'm panicking mind

Nothing to worry, Al Wukair is in every bookie's website though.

its also on oddscheckers day of the race market but not the anti post list

Just looking at Churchills breeding and noticing that previous O'Brien 2000 winner Gleneagles was by Galileo out of a Storm Cat mare too. If you were determined to find a 'chink' in Churchills armour however the 2015 Guineas is talked about as not being a great renewal and there are a couple of Galileo/Storm Cat fillies beaten in the 1000 Gns (Misty For Me and Ballydoyle). Another interesting breeding note is that the Fabre trained Territories second to Gleneagles in 2015 was out of a Machiavellian mare like Al Wukair ...

Gleneagles pre-Guineas form                                                                             OR      TS      RPR
05Oct14    Lon 2yG1 167K    7f    Gd    9-0    1d/9 btn Full Mast 9-0    9/4    J O'Brien    —            78    114
14Sep14    Cur 2yG1 148K    7f    GF    9-3    1/5 by 1½L Toscanini 9-3    1/3F    J O'Brien    113    83    116
24Aug14    Cur 2yG2 51K    7f    GF    9-3    1/5 by ¾L The Monarch 9-3    8/13F    J O'Brien    107    76    116
24Jul14    Leo 2yG3 33K    7f    GF    9-3    1/3 by ¾L Tombelaine 9-3    4/7F    J O'Brien    —    42    105
29Jun14    Cur 2yMd 11K    7f    GF    9-5    1/11 by 2½L Stevie's Wonder 9-2    EvensF    J O'Brien    —    66    92
06Jun14    Leo 2yMd 10K    7f    Gd    9-5    4/10 btn 3¼L Convergence 9-2    11/8F    C O'Donoghue    —    23    81

Churchills pre-Guineas form

DATE        DIST.    GNG.    WGT / HDGR    POS. FINISH DIST / WINNER or RUNNER-UP / WGT    SP    JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR
08Oct16    Nmk C12yG1 284K    7f    Gd    9-1    1/7 by 1¼L Lancaster Bomber 9-1    8/11F    R L Moore    —            100    121
11Sep16    Cur 2yG1 149K    7f    Y    9-3    1/7 by 4¼L Mehmas 9-3    4/5F    R L Moore                    111    104     120
21Aug16    Cur 2yG2 57K    7f    Y/Sft    9-3    1/4 by 2L Radio Silence 9-3    1/4F    J A Heffernan            109    87    111
21Jul16    Leo 2yG3 26K    7f    GF    9-3    1/6 by nk Alexios Komnenos 9-3    2/5F    R L Moore    —            76    106
18Jun16    Asc C12yL 45K    7f    GS    9-3    1/13 by ½L Isomer 9-3    8/11F    R L Moore    —                    91    100
22May16    Cur 2yMd 8K    6f    Sft    9-5    3/11 btn 2½L Van Der Decken 9-5    2/1F    R L Moore    —            34    79

i still can't make out how he has managed to get a rating of 122 and the racing post ratings have him running to 121 i just don't know where this rating has been found, i can only presume the national stakes beating the sprinter mehmas 4l has sealed the deal but the runner up is clearly better on better going and didn't get home that day...lockheed a nice type although beaten in lesser grade also holds the form down and who also would prefer better ground he ran third but both the placed horses prefer better ground and churchill clearly doesn't mind ground with cut

agree. I was looking at this last night. His last run was 121 but the 2nd was 116 on that and his two other best runs were 110. So really churchill should be 115 on that ( 2 less than wukair). so the only race that has him at 121 is beating mehmas. however similar logic applies looking at the 3rd/4th in that race. def overrated in my opinion and nowhere near a 6/4 chance in reality.

gl all

Jack Bauer '24' 04 May 17 01:48 Joined: 30 May 02 | Topic/replies: 6,034 | Blogger: Jack Bauer '24''s blog
Since then Frankel, Dawn Approach and Gleneagles have all won.

so 5/16. abit rough and ready but that seems about right. when i see 100/30 ill say we are at the right price

Jack Bauer '24'
Date Joined:    30 May 02
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04 May 17 16:59 Joined: 30 May 02 | Topic/replies: 6,034 | Blogger: Jack Bauer '24''s blog
Not going for the Dante then?

Backed and traded Lancaster Bomber for a free bet. In addition backed Churchill win and Al Wukair and Barney Roy both each way to net a small profit.

Churchill is obvious it's the only one that's even run in a G1 before -  but that means the others are unexposed and could be anything. However the fact Ballydoyle has no other serious entry would appear to show confidence in it. Price is too short though for a horse 6 months without a race so I'll go with a (hopefully) progressive type Al Wukair.

Backed Top Score.

I'm pretty confident after what I saw of Churchill last year, in particular the National Stakes, he isn't an exceptional miler. However, he might not need to be here as there doesn't appear to be a potential outstanding miler among the opposition. I have him closely matched with his main opponents in the betting but average improvement from last year would put him clear of the pack. Unlike his main opponents he'll be a fresh horse and his trainer has proved more adept than most at having them ready for the big day. That said, with three runners breathing down his neck also capable of progress and the possibility he may not have improved since last year I reckon his price is too short. At around 6/4 I think the long term advantage is in favour of the layers with this type of situation. I'll wait to see how he compares in the paddock and if the next three in the betting appear to have thrived or gone backwards since the trials, with the intention of laying him just to win an average stake.

I'm going to disagree with you on this one Figgis, just about the value. The more I've considered the race, the more I think Churchill is an even money shot, not because he's exceptional but because his three apparent rivals all have big questions to answer. I'd lay him at evens but back at 6-4.

Meant to say lay him at any odds on price.

Howellsy, that's fair enough, but don't you think there also has to be at least some doubt about Churchill considering he hasn't run since last year?

1- churchill
2 - Larchmont lad
3 - spirit of valor

Hard to say there's no doubt, but the percentage call for me is to assume he'll replicate the Dewhurst form with a few pounds more for the mile. I trust son of Galileo, as opposed to the American breds which have let the side down a few times. I can't see a logical reason for him to not train on, being by Galileo. It'll be interesting to see the betting close to the off.

described by his trainer as "probably the most imposing colt we've trained"

It seems every year now O'Brien describes the latest Coolmore hope as "the best", "the fastest" or "the most" something or over. Maybe he's right this time, to my untrained eye Churchill certainly looked imposing. I have to wonder, though, when a trainer kind of falls for a horse's looks if it colours his overall judgement of it. Churchill is obviously a decent horse and it must be nice to see such a fine looking animal go through his paces at home. Personally, speed wise I have Churchill some way behind O'Brien's previous best 2yos. Anyway as I said he might not need to be exceptional today.

*something or other

Fav by 2 lengths or more 7/2. I know he's not exhuberant, but to me it's a fair price.

Bit of a drift!

Looks like Churchill doesn't hold as much of a physical advantage as he did last year, although that was probably to be expected and he looked well enough to me, I've laid him anyway.

Churchill had a lovely passage aided and abetted by stablemate Lancaster Bomber who ran above his form; Epsom Derby or Irish 2000G and the St James's Palace Stakes.

Or an annoying little injury which doesn't quite go away and forces a retirement.

Churchill always looked to be travelling best, did it well enough and was a worthy winner. Not a bad time but I have it as the worst since Haafhd a few years ago, hence the relatively bunched finish. How much that was purely due to the early pace I don't know at this stage. Looking forward I'm still not convinced Churchill is an outstanding miler but as he is likely to get a pretty easy ride mopping up the Irish Guineas and/or the SJP probably facing pretty much the same opposition it will be difficult to oppose him in the near future. I'll probably have to wait till he meets his elders. Well done winners.

Be sporting, no one wants an injury to any horse, supporter or not. If sound, and enjoys the game let the horse runs otherwise retire them eg Air Force Blue.

Barney Roy was rather unlucky, and did not seem to enjoy the dip.

Dante next?

Be sporting, no one wants an injury to any horse, supporter or not

Yeah Howellsy you unsporting sour grape merchant

Even though you'd stated the horse was a bet at 6/4

I doubt it now having won this race - there is no need - but could go straight to Epsom Derby if the Coolmore boys choose similar to Australia; then the St James's Palace Stakes (SJPS). If by passing the Epsom Derby the Irish 2000g is a near certainty, wuth the SJPS next.

If no stand-out candidate from Coolmore for the Epsom Derby Churchill's chance of running there will be enhanced; Coolmore fielded 5 in 2016, 3 in 2015 and 4 in 2014.

Lancaster Bomber ensured a decent pace today and left a space for Churchill on the inside soon after the false rail to cut-in at the 3f pole, and that helps greatly - Barney Roy and  Al Wukair did not have this assistance.

What can you do Figgis!? Anyway, I think everything went right for Churchill today - no matter how 'seasoned' the horse is, it does help when the jockey seems to have learnt that the stands' rail might not be a disadvantageous place to be. I guess there are several factors to consider but all things being equal I'd expect Barney Roy to beat Churchill in Ireland - however, it might just be prudent to wait until Ascot. A messy race at the Curragh with that dog leg might not be what's needed next for BR. It does set up the season somewhat.

Yes I agree that Moore was better positioned given the way the race was run and kept it suitably simple. Possibly the second and third were a little disadvantaged but I thought Churchill had more natural easy speed and I'm not sure the others were disadvantaged enough to excuse being beaten a length. Much will depend on how each horse takes the race and develops from here and I don't have any firm opinion on that.

I think the two unlucky horses were Barney Roy and Al Wukair - they were done by a lack of pace and position. Does anyone think at least one of these two horses can overturn the result with Churchill either in the Irish 2000G or the St James's Palace Stakes at Ascot especially if the ground was softer?; I think the win of Churchill were mainly down to the smooth passage he had, and the false rail. If so, connections of Churchill could take the Epsom Derby route instead, I'd imagine.

I'm surprised you wanted to lay Churchill figgis. Call it aftertiming although I did say on here that I thought the horse would win beforehand.

Just the horses looks, the fact that it was trained by the master of the 2000, his breeding, the fact that the jockey was so effusive about him, everything screamed 2000 guineas winner. I think the horse is a finder. I don't think it's deceptive and in fact he does just do enough. Anyone taking him on in future is foolhardy, imo.

and what older horses would you take him on with? name a great older miler, I can't think of any. You'd have to be a significantly better horse than Churchill to beat him because he'll always battle.

I thought the horse would win beforehand

As I said before, the forum is split between the will win or should win punters and ones who think more about what chance they think the horse has and price it should be. Gun to my head Churchill was the most likely winner but not as short as a 6/4 shot. If Air Force Blue had won last year then his backers, of which there were many, would have said everyone who opposed him had overlooked the obvious. I rated Churchill nearer a 2/1 chance, maybe I was wrong, but 2/1 chances are expected to win 1 in every 3 opportunities so it's not exactly a shock when they win, even to their layers. Air Force Blue was a 4/5 shot last year, he was beaten so people would say afterwards that he was a poor bet, but 4/5 shots are expected to be beaten 4 out of every 9 times so that doesn't prove anything on its own.

Anyone taking him on in future is foolhardy, imo

As with all of my bets it will depend on his price at the time.

and what older horses would you take him on with? name a great older miler, I can't think of any

Impossible to say as we're not even into Royal Ascot. Gleneagles was supposed to be O'Brien's best ever miler but he did diddly squat after he'd beaten his own age group.

You'd have to be a significantly better horse than Churchill to beat him because he'll always battle

Significantly better? Do you think a horse can bridge, say, a length and a half difference in ability just through battling qualities?

Well done backers.

The race couldn't have worked out better for him, and it was obvious after a furlong that Lancaster Bomber would tow him to the cut away at the 2f marker and then Ryan would cut to the rail and quicken up. Equally though you also have to be good enough to take advantage and Churchill clearly was.

I expressed reservations about the track for Al Wukair and Barney Roy and if they were to meet Churchill on a more conventional flat track (not likely to happen) I'd fancy Al Wukair to come out on top. The fact they gave up an obvious (odds on?) chance of winning the French version shows just how much more prestigious the English version is. Maybe Teresa May can use that in her Brexit negotiations.

Eminent may well have bounced having had a hard race in the Craven, and after all the talk about him wanting further they made the classic rookie mistake ofthey trying to ride him handy, but of course that just nullified his finishing effort which had previously been his calling card. He still wasn't beaten all that far and may have his day in something like the Eclipse.

Moore ride exemplary, very much like Gleneagles win, jockeys on 2nd,3rd all over the shop as Moore went for home!Best horse won though,no doubt!

I'll after-time this and say yes I was confident about Churchill, particularly because of Course form - but in fact not overly so, as the trials did throw up proper horses - did my proper punting in the Jockey Club Stakes and had a Churchill win, Lancaster e/w and RV forecast -

Going Forward though ..

Firstly) Either one / both of Barney Roy and Eminent can't have given their true running as they were asked to go again after minimal rest,

Secondly) My impression of Eminent is predictably that he's much more like a Derby horse, the way he ran through the line in his previous race, the way he was readily outpaced by Churchill

Thirdly) Barney Roy didn't handle the dip - which was the crucial factor in backing Churchill (if you doubted Eminent), for all that he looks v forward

Fourthly) The only horse to gain ground on Churchill was the lightly-built Al Wukair who has potentially the most of the others up his sleeve for the rest of the season

Finally) Churchill won snug. He took 2L out of Lancaster Bomber when asked to go on and from then he just idled, Have no doubts if something came to eyeball him he'd have found again.

So we finally get to see Caravaggio again today. Something still not quite right here for me. Okay we can put the earlier dithering down to stamina doubts but this is a horse unbeaten as a 2yo who has already won a Gp1, so why drop him down to Gp3 level? I can understand a Derby type horse given a run in lower class as he'd need the experience but this runner doesn't lack experience. Is it just that he's ring rusty? Surely not if we believe all the comments O'Brien has made about the speed he's showing. Anyway he has so much in hand today that he should win whether needing the run or not, I just wonder about him going forward and have niggling doubts that he may not train on.

Well Caravaggio won as his form entitled him to. I could see no improvement on last year, beating Psychedelic Funk the same margin he beat him in the Coventry. It was only a prep race though so you wouldn't expect him to do too much, and the fact he took a bit of time to pick up I don't see as anything to worry about. He appeared much more powerful than his opponents as a 2yo, galloping all over them, but this time I just wasn't anywhere near as impressed with him physically during the run. I don't know, maybe I'm being unduly negative about him as a 3yo but the doubts remain.

Couldn't disagree any more Figgis. I think Caravaggio looks a bit special.

Fair enough Graeme. I'm not crabbing the form today, I rated him highly last year and today's win wasn't far off his best. Even if he continues to run to that mark he'll be very hard to beat. It's just that I've seen 3yos throughout the years that looked like they're as good as they were first time out only to go backwards. Physically during the race he didn't give me the same powerful impression he did last year, even though he won easily in the end. We'll see how he goes on from this, maybe I'm wrong to have doubts.

Caravaggio

so why drop him down to Gp3 level?

I don’t think they could have picked an easier race given their form line with the War Front colt, Intelligence Cross.  Khukri  and Gorane have falsely elevated marks through their Power Stakes running where todays runner-up Psychedelic Funk was never a factor after stumbling at the start and being slowly away. It was not a G3 race today at all, just Listed class at best but they were 100 rated animals. I can’t help but think 8-15Fav despite his penalty must have been because he looked beforehand as he would come on a ton for today.

It might look similar form with Psychedelic Funk and the Coventry Stakes but it was a commanding performance with minor effort after being off since last August. Blue Point and Harry Angel are both credible Commonwealth Cup contenders/opponents against him but Caravaggio will be much, much better with a faster pace and they won’t trouble him, and if they go the Stravinsky route of July Cup/Nunthorpe, kin hell what are we in for this summer.

yeah I was impressed with him today figgis but I totally get where you're coming from. Whereas last year he looked imposing, a three year old running against babies, now they've caught him up.

but it's not how they look it's how they run and this boy's got a rocket in his motor. Still think though that blue point might be able to give him a race at Royal Ascot.

LR, I agree that the ability is far more important than looks. I just wonder if he has the physicality to cope with his own speed and the rigours of racing in the long term, maybe he'll be ok.

I'm still wanting to oppose Churchill in future against better opposition but can't bet against him in the Irish 2000. His only serious rival is Irishcorrespondent. He won his maiden impressively which gave him a great chance last time out and he duly followed up. In my view of that form he made big improvement again and you couldn't rule out him progressing further. That said, I would only want to back him on what he's done, not what he might do, and I have him still with 7lbs to find on Churchill's form of last year. I see the RPRs have him with 19lbs to find so there's a big variance of opinion on how close they are. There's also the possibility Churchill may have improved a few pounds since last year, his Guineas run was inconclusive about that.

Unless Churchill goes backwards from the Guineas he is by far the most likely winner today and the market has his price about right so I won't be opposing him. I hope he does win easily so there will be other opportunities to take him on at short prices.