I've had a bit on Capri and Churchill for the Guineas.

Paterson that's my anti post each way singles and double

Caravaggio against Lady Aurelia in the Prix Morny later this month, and in France, I do not think so myself; I think it is also unlikely he'll be going for the Dewhurst either (Paddies/Betfair are offering 2/1) but the National Stakes at the Curragh next month is more likely, I'd think.

There is only one 2000 Guineas, as such connections will move heaven and earth to get him there, and the strong run/finish in the Coventry Stakes on very soft ground is a massive positive.

Morning Chaps. I'm new to this (just joined) so please bear with me! I've been following this discussion for a few weeks now & I'm fascinated with everyone's opinions. I have a vested interest in the progress of Caravaggio as I'm in possession of an Ante Post voucher at 25-1 for next year's 2000 Guineas. However, I have absolutely no idea as to whether he will actually get the Rowley Mile or not (or indeed if connections will ultimately aim him at the Newmarket Classic). My reason for backing him was because after I'd seen him win his second race at the Curragh I was convinced O'Brien would run him in the Coventry & if he won well at Royal Ascot his price would possibly contract to somewhere between 8/1 & 12/1. Obviously I was very happy with what followed & his subsequent run yesterday. Not so happy with Aidan's post race comments about possibly running him in the Morny and/or Middle Park, that suggests to me that they see him as a 6 furlong horse long term as well as for the present. I'd have thought the Dewhurst was the logical end of season target if they are serious about him being a potential Guineas horse next year. I've been reading all the comments regarding his breeding and I have total respect for all of you who are convinced that he won't get a mile. I think I'm in the same camp as impossible123 in that we both hope for all money that he'll stay, but not totally convinced. I also agree with those of you that backing him at odds ranging from 5-2 to PP's best price of 4-1 is bordering on insanity. Looking at past history I would say that 8-1/10-1 right now is a fairer reflection of his chances next May with all that can happen in between. I'm happy with my 25-1 but would feel a lot more secure if connections eventually run him in the Dewhurst. If that happens I'll be looking to lay him to at least cover my stake going into the Winter break. Here's hoping anyway....

That's my worry AT... I wish he was a bit slower!!

SP63 - You can lay him now at just over 4/1.  You know it makes sense.

commonwealth and july cup double might be more sensible aim

probably have an alternative short priced guineas fav elsewhere in the barn

Aidens quote after the pheonix was that he is sticking to 6f this year.

This is such an interesting argument. Harry you make some great points again. For those of us desperate to see Caravaggio line up in the 2000 GUINEAS next May, I think our fate will be sealed by the end of October/early November. If Aidan does not run him in either the National Stakes or the Dewhurst then that would lead me to believe they do not intend to go for the GUINEAS.. IMO it's unlikely that he'll run in either the Craven or Greenham next year as a prep, that isn't O'Brien's usual MO.

fair point in regards targets pigeon and o'briens preps in regards his guineas winners make quite handy reading and trainers are a creature of habit...

looking at some of o'briens guineas winners and prep races as juveniles, most were top class juveniles

king of kings took in the national stakes as did george washington both guineas winners, henrythenavigator took in the fururity stakes at 7f where beaten...gleneagles national stakes proves o'brien likes this trail for his guineas horses and apart from gleneagles all these others finished there season in this race so is this key to your bet in regards the guineas? maybe i'd say looking at o'briens MO even hawkwing (should of won guineas) finished his season in the national stakes and enough to say he was there guineas horse that year, above rock of gibraltor who had a much more intense juvenile campaign   

he doesn't tend to stretch his juveniles till the big day at newmarket, those horses he took to the middle park and won like johannesborg didn't even run in the guineas so o'brien probably already knew where he was at with certain horses, so personally and like you say pigeon it will be key that he turns up in the national stakes/dewhurst i'd say more so the national stakes than the dewhurst judging by his previous winners, like you say you will know your fate in regards him even turning up in the guineas after these trails are run

Very interesting comments yesterday by Wesley Ward and Aidan O'Brien ahead of a possible clash between Lady Aurelia and Caravaggio in the Gr.1 Prix Morny:

Ward: "Lady Aurelia has one last bit of work here Thursday or Friday and then she will fly over Saturday. Everything has been going awesome. I have been following Caravaggio. If he does go for the Prix Morny, we're ready. If he doesn't, we're ready too. Six furlongs will be no problem either."

O'Brien: "Caravaggio came out of the race [the Phoenix Stakes] well. We have the option of going to France with him, but we won’t make our minds up for a while yet. He might go straight to the Middle Park. We want to do the right thing by the horse. He seems very happy this morning and we won’t rule out France, but there is a chance he'll go straight to the Middle Park. When Seamie [Heffernan] let him go on Sunday, he nearly stumbled, he went to go so fast. We’ve never had a horse with that sort of speed, so I don’t know if he'll ever get a mile."

So they're sticking at 6f with Caravaggio, and it's very unlikely that he will run in either the National Stakes or the Dewhurst.  If you've backed him for the Guineas, don't tear up your betting tickets just yet, but the omens don't look good...

Johannesburg won over a mile in the Breeders Cup but that didn't mean he would then train on and win a Guineas.
Even if Carravagio wins a National or Dewhurst he might well go the same way as Air Force Blue, who of coursecwon both very impressively..

If you take away AOB's 3 at the top of the market (Caravaggio, Churchill and War Decree), I find it difficult to find a horse that I would class as a Guineas winner.

Next on the list is Blue Point trained by Charlie Appleby. Looked impressive on first 2 starts but failed to give Mehmas 3lb last time. That was over 6f though and may well improve for the step up in trip, I would imagine the Champagne Stakes or Dewhurst would be on the agenda next.

Next is Mehmas. Personally I think he is a similar type to Illuminate. Illuminate and Lumiere were the 2 best 6f horses last season and although fancied by connections to get a mile, they underperformed in the 1000 Guineas.

Douglas Macarthur is clearly well thought of but is not my idea of a Guineas winner.

Hydroxide next on the list, beaten a short head by D'bai on debut who was a 1/5 favourite that day. Probably should have won in all honesty, he could be value but wouldn't touch until seen again.

Anyone spot any value outwith the usual suspects?

Churchill has not looked like a Gp1 horse so far - a listed/Gp3 one perhaps - and War Decree, despite winning his last race, was actually receiving 3lbs from Boynton hence, cannot see him as a Guineas winner either. Only Caravaggio, if he stays the Guineas mile, which connections will no doubt try him over 7f prior.

If Caravaggio does not win a 7f Guineas Trial race my money would be on Blue Point.

O/T

This year 'Coolmore' have two very good fillies ie Minding and Ballydoyle, the former could go on any ground bar firm/fast whilst the other only good/firm ground. As such the ground have turned out in Minding's favour, and the campaign of Ballydoyle has been affected.

Regards Caravaggio, he's won on very soft ground over 6f and won 'two' races in the Coventry Stakes; Caravaggio's ability to go on any ground, settle and travel well, quicken and run on to the finish in every race so far will no doubt have at least encourage connections an attempt at 7f is a must prior to a possible tilt at the Guineas Mile; the opportunities and financial rewards speak for themselves and must be a major considerations for all concerned, and there really is nothing to lose but everything to gain.

I'd be happy if connections make a decision on participation in the 2000G next year or until a such a time one is absolutely necessary. But I'm hopeful his temperament, his proven stamina over a very soft 6f and winning two 'races' in the Coventry really well will earn him an outing over 7f at least - I certainly would if I was the owner.

Exactly Figgis Dewhurst it is and will hose up. Frightening off opposition.

Caravaggio is the best 2yr old colt by a long chalk, and there are many prestigious 6f races for the taking (literally); his connections also have other 2000G fancies eg Churchill, War Decree, etc, and races will need to be found for them to gain 'Gp status/black types' to enhance breeding/stud values. Also, AOB did say Caravaggio would be kept to 6f this year.

In a nutshell, in 2016 Caravaggio will be campaigned to mop up these 6f races whilst his stablemates over 7f or more - their paths will not cross. But come 2017, all things being equal eg trained on, etc, I have little doubt Caravaggio will take in a race over 7f to determine whether a tilt at the 2000G race would be in vain; if winning doing a hand stand it is inconceivable Caravaggio will not line-up against other colts, including his stablemates, in the 2000G in 2017. Until then, there is absolutely no need for a decision to be made just yet, and this is reflected in the betting market.

I agree with james in regard to Caravaggio's unlikely appearance in a 7f trial in the spring. As I said previously (and james just pointed out) it isn't O'Brien's usual MO, they all tend to go straight to the Guineas after the winter break. So my worry is.... Would he head straight to the Guineas in May without EVER having run publicly in a race over 7f? I very much doubt it. So with that in mind, I'm desperate for him to run in the National or Dewhurst this season. That will tell us far more than a schooling session at Ballydolye. I believe that AOB is an absolute genius but even he was completely unaware that Air Force Blue would run a stinker in the Guineas (& no better in 3 subsequent runs) so home work can be a little bit misleading because in the lead up to this year's Guineas AOB reported Air Force Blue to be in fine fettle & ready to run for his life. The market never suggested anything differently as he went off a solid 4-5 jolly. I just think that unless he runs in either of the two major 7f races that we've mentioned, the writing is on the wall as far as his participation in next year's Guineas. What a real shame that would be... and I'm not just talking from my personal selfish point of view. Regardless of whether I'd backed him or not, it would be a real shame if he doesn't make the Guineas :-(

imp123... Maybe we should both call AOB & tell him he MUST run Caravaggio in the Guineas because we are both on!! I'm sure that would tip the scales rather than any possible future stallion value for the horse!! Agree though, regardless of any personal preference, it's a brilliant debate. I've genuinely gained quite a bit of knowledge listening to some of the guys talking about the breeding, USA types, Scat Daddy, his sire Johannesburg, plus all the other past Coolmore runners and their race records & preferences etc. Glad to be a small part of the ongoing debate... Very enjoyable.

Whether Air Force Blue's form was overrated or not, and I always thought it was, it can't possibly argued he's showing the same form this year, he's obviously not the horse he was.

I think there's very little chance Caravaggio would take in a 7f race next year before the Guineas, that isn't the way the yard usually operate and there would be absolutely nothing to be gained as a win over 7f at that stage would still not prove he'd stay the mile. If he's going to run over 7f it will be this season, as a win over a truly run 7f as a 2yo would be a far better indicator. Actually O'Brien still hasn't said he won't run over 7f this year, just that he'd be in no rush to step him up and the Middle Park could be an option. While I'm sure O'Brien's stamina reservations are true, he's always trying to emphasise how much speed his horses have, it's all part of the hard sell.

Minardi was kept to 6f before running in the Guineas, there may have been others but he's the only one I recall off the top of my head. It's possible they could do the same with Caravaggio but I think it's more likely they will try 7f this year if they think he might have any chance of staying.