impossible123, I've read a lot of forums on a lot of different topics, but I can honestly say that you are the biggest moron I have ever come across.

Does anyone have any opinions on Hugo Palmers' Escobar?

I'v been quite taken by his two runs thus far and 33/1 is tempting me.

Yeah I'll need to borrow a friends account as if I attempted to back it myself I'd get £0.00 with Spoils and 20pew with the other joke firm.

Just curious to know if anyone else sees him as potentially good enough to win a guineas, or otherwise?

Agree with uncle, not really enough to go on, all I can say is it can't yet be said that he's not good enough.

I think apart from his debut Galileo Gold was only beaten on his last start and he had excuses there as it was a slow pace and he finished well, not that I fancied him for the Guineas anyway. Unless you're confident that there are about three runners with a high level of form then you can't really say a runner should not be good enough. We had a Guineas this year with seemingly only one strongly fancied runner and we saw what happened there. No sense in being afraid of one horse and at this stage next year's Guineas candidates don't look any stronger than last year's. If you fancy one at a big price I say go for it.

The romantic in me is drawn towards the unraced entries which remain in the Dewhurst after today's declaration stage.

There are five of them, two of which I mentioned above and Executive Force has now been declared to run at Newbury on Friday.

A third is Act of Valour trained by Michael O'Callaghan for Qatar Racing.

The other two are quite intriguing (to me at least!) - African trained by Aidan O'Brien but owned and bred by Mrs Fitri Hay with no visible Coolmore involvement.

Finally Valcartier, trained by John Gosden for Godolphin, he was bought by John Ferguson at the Arqana Deauville sales as a yearling for the little matter of EUR 950k - it seems unusual that he was sent to Gosden who has run plenty in Godolphin colours but usually after they bought them from his wife or other Gosden owners. I also can't recall Godolphin sending any to Gosden to train at 2yo and then moving them to their own training operation as they have been known to do with Mark Johnston. Unless anybody else knows better?

None of these may turn out to be any good or forward enough, of course - but worth keeping an eye out for if they turn up in maidens in the weeks between now and the Dewhurst.

At 33s, I wouldn't want to put you off Escobar, go-all-in.  He was reportedly still quite 'green' last time at Newbury, and he's probably capable of quite a bit better when upped to Group company. Doubts stem from a couple of bits of evidence: firstly, the Newbury form looks a bit shaky (the runner-up Mr Scaramanga is officially rated 99 but has failed to run up to anything like that rating on his two most recent starts), and secondly his breeding (by first-season sire Famous Name, who famously never managed to win a Gr.1 race in 10 attempts, out of a fairly modestly-bred dam who was beaten in all 14 pattern races she contested, most of them Listed races) doesn't encourage a lot of confidence that he will progress to being a Gr.1 winner.

Looks like it's curtains as far as Caravaggio getting a run over 7 furlongs before the end of the season is concerned. It definitely looks as though Coolmore see Churchill as their bona fide Guineas horse, seeing as Caravaggio has already been taken out of the Dewhurst with 3 weeks still to go until that race. I know I'm speaking from my pocket but it's very disappointing to say the least. I wouldn't be so gloomy if I thought AOB would run Caravaggio in the Greenham or Craven in April, but as we all know, that isn't his style. Figgis pointed out last week that AOB's Minardi & Orpen both went straight to the Guineas having only tackled up to 6 furlongs before Newmarket, but I suspect the Coolmore boys rate Caravaggio significantly higher than those 2 horses & will not want to damage his reputation with a chance throw of the Guineas dice without being sure he has a fighting chance of getting the Rowley Mile, especially if Churchill continues to strenghthen & improve. To pick up on go-all-in's comment about trying to get a reasonable bet on & getting knocked back by these so called "big firms", I share his frustration & I've had the same experience many times myself. However, a complimentary nod to Hills who had the balls to lay me a decent bet prior to the Coventry. I'm fairly new on here so I'm not totally au fait with the etiquette regarding the sharing of wagers & the amounts involved so I'll apologise in advance, but you'll realise why I'm so frustrated that we won't see Caravaggio in the Dewhurst because Hills laid me a Monkey at 25's for the Guineas a week before the Coventry! I've not completely given up hope of seeing him line up at Newmarket next May, but with every passing week the vibes are getting more negative :-( I'll try & stay positive!!

SP63 - no offence but given that size of that bet you were mad not to lay off your stake at around 4/1 after he won the Phoenix - you'd still have had a monkey at 20/1 but with no risk to your bank if he didn't run and win.
I know you would have had to tie up £2k or more to cover it but if you are betting in monkeys I'm assuming that isn't a problem.

24 hours later and Spoilsports haven't cut the price, and still won't lay me another penny (on a fresh account too)

Lay a fooking bet or cut the fooking price

Think it's time my mother opened an account , they'll never guess it's me

I hope Caravaggio manages to win a backend race for you anyway and shortens enough that you can trade out.

Gents, sorry for late response. Uncle you are right - 100%. I should definitely have laid off at 4-1 when the opportunity was there after the Phoenix. In fact I'm always banging on to my mates about laying off when you are in a strong position, particularly on golf. In truth I should have done it immediately after the Coventry when it was fresh in everyone's mind and he was being quoted as low as 5-2 in places. But to be honest I was being greedy! At that point in the season, Churchill had only won the Chesham (usually considered a much weaker race than the Coventry) & was readily available at much higher odds than Caravaggio for the Guineas. In my own mind I saw AOB aiming Caravaggio at the National Stakes (possibly) and then the Dewhurst (definitely) judging by the way he reeled in Mehmas at Ascot & then drew away in covinvcing fashion, looking for all the world that 7 furlongs was well within his capabilities even at this early stage of his career. My plan was to watch Caravaggio win the Dewhurst & end the season as Winter favourite at around 7-4/2-1. Then I would have definitely laid off a grand of my potential return to cover my £500 stake. To be perfectly honest, I do not usually bet in this sort of amount. My large wager stemmed from a very lucky run on the golf earlier in the season & from watching Caravaggio win his second start at The Curragh. Purely from a trading point of view I thought that 25-1 was a great price for the Guineas assuming he would win the Coventry & shorten up considerably afterwards. He did exactly what I'd hoped at Ascot, but unfortunately greed got the better of me & I sat tight waiting for his next couple of races. Obviously the news that Coolmore have drawn stumps with him for the season is a massive blow but I guess that's the perils of Ante Post punting!  I really can't see him going for the Guineas if Churchill continues to improve, but you never know so I'll tuck away my voucher & live in hope.

Ha ha! That topic has been discussed in length on here Ranger & I bow to the superior knowledge of others on this subject. My wager at 25's was made because I was certain he'd win the Coventry & shorten up considerably afterwards. I was right on both instances but as I've said, didn't follow through with the sensible option of covering my stake and having a bet to nothing at a net price of 20's by laying him at 4's. Lesson learned I suppose... Don't be greedy! On the subject of his breeding, as has been pointed out on here by a few others with greater knowledge than me, it's not an absolute certainty that Caravaggio will fail to stay a mile. Just more likely that he won't than he will. But with the early death of Scat Daddy there's not as many years & years of stats to go on regarding his progeny as with other sires who have stood the test of time. If Caravaggio had run in the Dewhurst and got beaten fair & square in 3rd or 4th after leading going into the dip I'd have taken it on the chin & accepted that he'd be unlikely to make the Guineas line up. It's the not knowing that is frustrating! I fully respect your view that he "wouldn't get home in a horsebox", that's what these forums are all about, we all have differing opinions. Would be fascinating to find out if you're right... Here's hoping we get the chance.

^with referencecto Escobar

The price of Churchill has harden into as short as 5/2 with some bookies except Laddies (4/1, Caravaggio 7/2 fav) without lifting a foot today as his potential protagonists for this race eg Blue Point, Intelligence Cross, Peace Envoy, Mokarris and Mubtasim all disappointed in the Middle Park Stakes.

Anyone have an update on seven heavens? Where he goes next? TIA

Big Black Cat,

I think 'they' arrived at this figure because of the prevalent form of the other runners eg Blue Point, Thunder Snow, Rivet, etc. Also, the good ground allowed Lancaster Bomber to improve significantly; he was only 14/1 against Churchill the last time they met on soft ground.

By leading on  the stands rail and racing on the golden highway must account for at least 10lb's of his improvement.

According to his trainer immediately post race Criquette-Head said: "He has a huge action and he likes to gallop. He could be a Guineas horse."

I'd think the same otherwise she'd have probably said 'des Pouliches'.