I think O'Brien's change of plan post the Dundalk gallop about an intended prep race for Caravaggio prior to his 2000 Guineas assault augers well for both Caravaggio and Churchill, in my opinion ie Coolmre is more than hopeful Caravaggio will stay the Guineas distance, and Churchill can win this race on his own, if sound; Caravaggio will only run here in the absence of Churchill otherwise Caravaggio will be France bound, but they will not take each other on.

Caravaggio is presently 8/1 but no doubt be significantly shorter if running here.

Can't see a great deal wrong with his opinion. French race might be an easier race to get the trip. Aidan won't see two fit horses of high ability to win the same guineas. If they both turn up, one is using it as a prep, or has went backwards.

i agree a tad about the prep graeme as he has done it before for his irish guineas horse, not sure he'd pull the same trick here though, who knows but if he is well caravaggio will run here and not in france

If they both run it'll be at Newmarket - the Poulains has much less prestige. CooLmore would dearly love to win the Guineas with an American-bred. Defeat for Caravaggio could be written off as down to stamina.

I'm still not convinced we'll see Caravaggio on the racecourse again.

I can't believe they'll keep Caravaggio to sprints without giving him a go at a mile, it's going to happen sooner or later so might as well be now in the one they want most. In my view it's all about what Caravaggio shows them at home leading up to the race. If he looks as good as last year they'll run him at Newmarket. If they go for the easier option at Deauville I'd take it as a big negative about his current form.

I think it is very, very unlikely Churchill and Caravaggio will both run here eg Air Force Blue did not take on The Gurkha, for commercial reasons; this is Churchill's route, and Caravaggio's too - if the former is absent. Otherwise Caravaggio will be France bound hence still available at 8/1. But no doubt be shorter nearer race day, all being well for both colts, I believe.

Caravaggio

This is how I see it play out in my film.

As a future stallion prospect the main priority set for Caravaggio is the all-important Classic-mile win. Obviously the more prestigious event that takes place on the Rowley Mile is preferred but if the French race looks more suitable to maintain his unbeaten status then the Hippodrome de Deauville-La Touques is where he will go, after all the Poule d’Essai des Poulains has current leading European sires Shamardal and his son Lope de Vega, and Coolmore’s own 2016 miler The Gurkha gracing the past winners roster.

Right now the potential British-based opposition to Ballydoyle at Newmarket with juvenile Group-form is beginning to look sparse, as from what I have read there is a leaning towards France with Racing Post Trophy winner Rivet, South Seas is being targeted at the French Derby, both the Godolphin trainers have sounded lukewarm about their individual more obvious contenders in Thunder Snow and Boynton, and the Richard Hannon G3 Tattersalls Stakes winner Larchment Lad (and recent Godolphin acquisition Barney Roy) has well in excess of a stone to find. The others prominent in the Guineas market and racing press are all promising maiden winners that you would think need to step-up considerably in one of the recognised trials. These include by my reckoning the two Frankel colts, Swiss Storm (another Godolphin purchase) and Eminent who are both in capable hands, the highly-rated Escobar, Roger Varian’s Cape Byron, and the Clarehaven pair Cracksman and Utmost. I found it interesting that John Gosden is aiming Cracksman at the Listed 9f Fielden Stakes at Newmarket in order to ascertain distance requirements and likewise it has occurred to me that Kevin Ryan may go the Feilden route (won with 2000 Guineas runner-up Glory Awaits) with Godolphin-owned G3 Acomb Stakes winner Syphax  for the same reason. And only today Saeed Bin Suroor’s impressive 3yo maiden winner Dream Castle (another for Frankel, this time out of a Dubawi mare that won the Flying Childers Stakes) has been given quotes of 20-1 for the Guineas.
 
A key upcoming event is the clash between Mme C Head-Maarek's G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère winner National Defense and Andre Fabre’s Al Shaqab owned Al Wukair in the G3 Prix Djebel over the straight 7f at Maison-Laffitte Monday week. It is quite possible the outcome could lead to the scenario of not only one but also a dual cross-Channel raid by two genuine contenders (remember Pennekamp won but Zafonic lost his unbeaten record in the Prix Djebel) or to both their absence.

Looking back at Royal Ascot, Caravaggio became worth his weight in gold to Coolmore the second he crossed the line and announced himself as an outstanding contender for the 2000 Guineas and heir apparent to his ill-fated sire Scat Daddy. Although his 2-year-old career was curtailed he did manage to become the first since Fasliyev (1999) to complete the Coventry-Phoenix Stakes double; when you consider nine colts had tried and failed to emulate him, including Henrythenavigator (2007), Power (2011) and War Command (2013), that is some feat and one that will certainly appear on his future stallion profile.

For the record by my count King of Kings (98) is the only Aidan O'Brien past 2000 Guineas winner that went to post unaccompanied and almost all of the others had what appeared at the time a legitimate stablemate as a fellow contender- Rock of Gibraltar/Hawk Wing (02)  Footstepsinthesand/Oratario (05), George Washington/Horatio Nelson (06), Henrythenavigator/Plan (08), Camelot/Power (12), and Gleneagles/Ol' Man River (15).

From a stallion perspective, to me Churchill does not quite match up to Gleneagles in representing the highly potent Galileo-Storm Cat cross that is free of the Danzig blood; with Gleneagles’s G2-winning dam being a full-sister to triple US champion sire Giant's Causeway, whereas, Caravaggio follows Scat Daddy, Johannesburg, Hennessy, Storm Cat and Storm Bird as the sixth consecutive generation of his sire line to have won a G1 at two, and if Caravaggio proves more than just a top-class juvenile and becomes an American-bred Classic mile winner, as a European-based sire he would become a highly prized vital outcross for Coolmore’s high-achieving mares by Sadler's Wells and all his sons. Moreover, as Scat Daddy has left behind a legacy of versatility reminiscent of Mr. Prospector to whom he was inbred (4 x 2), there is every chance Caravaggio will produce dirt performers as well. His potential is astronomical as a sire.

For me the analogy with Rock of Gibraltar and Hawk Wing is interesting simply because one was not “supposed” to win going by media accounts on the lead up to the race, however, I believe Aidan O'Brien will ably condition Caravaggio to stay a mile and that he takes precedent over Churchill Europe's champion 2-year-old of 2016 on all accounts. I also foresee that this is not another case of a War Front superstar juvenile. Scat Daddy has already produced many good two-year-olds that also stay well as his Chilean progeny have demonstrated by dominating their two-year-old season as well as the big classics on the turf. Fifteen years on from the 2002 Guineas circumstances dictate that we are not about to witness a match between Ballydoyle stable companions and with the aid of more advanced equine exercise physiology (GPS, heart rate, oxygen capacity, lactate testing) data they will not make a mistake with Caravaggio, even coming straight from 6f to a mile.If the English 2000 Guineas were to prevail as the target for Caravaggio, Churchill will have to go elsewhere. By the middle of April the big money indication will come from the Coolmore/Ballydoyle axis.

I reckon both of the O'Brien horses are overhyped and neither have blown me away.

this is still wide-open.

Channel 4 racing headline tweet just after Coventry.

Aidan O'Brien says there's "a big chance" Coventry winner CARAVAGGIO will get a mile in due course

https://twitter.com/Channel4Racing/status/742724186502660096


Aidan O'Brien cannot hide his excitement over the prospects of Caravaggio staying the mile in this interview.

Figgis from what I read at the time, when Caravaggio became doubtful for the Middle Park Stakes in mid-August he scuttled the plan of going to Newmarket and then on to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile over 8.5f. He would have followed his sire-line with Johannesburg a past winner in 2001 and Hennessy, a close second in 1995, the latter stood at Ashford Stud, John Magnier and partners' North American farm. It is only really confirmation bias in our belief in the perquisite run over 7f for any prospective Aidan O'Brien 2000 Guineas winner.
 
http://www.attheraces.com/news/2016/August/28/pulled-muscle-could-derail-middle-park-plans-for-caravaggio

As to whether Caravagggio will get a mile, the memory of the Thunder Snow being totally annihilated a quarter-mile out by Caravaggio at Royal Ascot says to me he can. Then again, at around the same time as Churchill won the National Stakes, Conquest Farenheit, a 2-year-old Scat Daddy colt out of a Holy Bull mare had just missed out winning the Summer Stakes (G2) at Woodbine over a mile, a “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1). The Bill Mott trained winner Good Samaritan went on to come 1 1/2l 3rd, a neck behind the 2nd Lancaster Bomber at Santa Anita. This year he has won the Pasadena Stakes 8F on the turf at Santa Anita (March 18). I posted about this at the time. His trainer Peter Miller said. "This is a serious horse. For him to run that way with fast splits and come away like he did is pretty impressive. It showed he could get two turns and it looked like he had another gear. I think we'll try him next in the American Turf Derby at Churchill Downs (G2, 1 1/16 miles May 6)."

The versatility of his sire Scat Daddy is the key.

A key upcoming event is the clash between Mme C Head-Maarek's G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère winner National Defense and Andre Fabre’s Al Shaqab owned Al Wukair in the G3 Prix Djebel over the straight 7f at Maison-Laffitte Monday week. It is quite possible the outcome could lead to the scenario of not only one but also a dual cross-Channel raid by two genuine contenders (remember Pennekamp won but Zafonic lost his unbeaten record in the Prix Djebel) or to both their absence.

assuming ND wins easily, what iyo's is the chance she will bring him over? 20/1 is crazy if he is coming?

Charlton2005

National Defense is owned by Sun Bloodstock, part of an expanding European venture by the Australian-based Sun Stud (formerly Eliza Park International) that is Hong Kong-owned. If National Defense wins doing cartwheels he could come over but then again he might stay at home for the Poule d’Essai des Poulains. Considering Mme C Head-Maarek's have been ambiguous thus far, 20/1 is on just one side of a coin.

*  I'm not saying Coolmore are above hoodwinking the betting public

Figgis I think the special edition of Form Factor with Hugh Taylor and James Willoughby on biases; recency bias, availability heuristic, confirmation bias and anchoring could be perfect to use as an explanatory model to all that we are considering. Our ethnocentric view of Scat Daddy's dominant Royal Ascot star juveniles, hearing the words of Wesley Ward alongside Aiden O’Brien statements- “Caravaggio was always considered a very fast horse, and we always thought that Churchill was a Guineas horse." are the reasons I dismissed offhand Caravaggio immediately after the Coventry as a potential 2000 Guineas winner and how the bookmakers have priced up Caravaggio.

I also do not think it odd that Caravaggio's ante-post odds has been around 8/1 throughout the winter until now because the market has been inert and will only come alive in the next few weeks. It is an arbitrary number in the market for the time being and the polarisation of strongly fancied to get the trip/genuine reservations are details that Aiden O’Brien, John Magnier and his trusted associates, and Ryan Moore will set out on the table at Coolmore in next coming days; it is that close as all the conditioning data will be just about complete. The resultant view taken will not be under wraps much longer and the markets will respond.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFF1l5XxT8U&t=86s

Caravaggio is all pace and brilliance. Don't get sucked in by the hype people. his tank would be on empty in the final furlong at Newmarket and the street fighter Churchill (appropriately named) would be just getting into his stride

But even Churchill will look painfully one paced as the huge swiss storm comes "storming" through to win

Madhu, I think they'd still be very happy with that outcome. Caravaggio would have proved his stamina and there is still a long season ahead and plenty of options to avoid running them together again and to try to establish Caravaggio as a champion. If both horses are fit and well the sensible choice has to be to run them both.

What would be the point of running Caravaggio in France? It's been said that they might choose to run there as it's an easier mile, okay but then what? If he wins he'd still have to run over a stiffer mile later. Obviously they could drop him back to sprints afterwards instead but if that's his long term future they might as well train him with that in mind already.

I cannot see them running Caravaggio alone if Churchill is also well. It doesn't matter if they have data to hand nearer the race that tells them Caravaggio has a positive chance of getting the trip (something I'm doubtful of existing anyway), they still won't know for sure. Even if they start to think he has a great chance of staying they still can't be sure of how he'll perform on the day. Remember what happened with Air Force Blue last year. They were very confident of him staying. O'Brien had said he was his best ever 2yo (personally I always said I thought he was overrated but that's beside the point). He was supposed to be primed for the race, heavily supported by the yard and it was all systems go. I can't see them running the risk of one of them bombing out and ending up with nothing when they think they have two with serious chances of winning.

From that I'd infer these two horses will not meet here

Why would you infer that? O'Brien only needed to say Caravaggio runs in the unexpected absence of Churchill if that's what he meant.

I think Air Force Blue did not train on rather than he did not stay the Guineas distance

I never said he lost because he didn't stay. Madhu said that if they have data nearer the time telling them Caravaggio was likely to stay they'd run him. I said they believed Air Force Blue would stay. However, whether he stayed or not didn't matter as he completely bombed out on the day and failed to train on. Despite them thinking he was ready to run the race of his life beforehand and him being backed accordingly.

The main criteria I see evolve around the combination of likely ground conditions and opposition. Although Caravaggio has won on soft, his chances of getting a mile would obviously be markedly improved if it were good ground or better. With just eight days between races the only thing I see complicating Newmarket in this instance is if looks like being bottomless on the Rowley mile but I also believe if the opposition in the Poule d’Essai des Poulains is judged much easier then Deauville would become more suitable option.

I agree with that. That would be the only situation where I wouldn't take it as a negative if Caravaggio is switched to France as it would make perfect sense. The ground rarely comes up like that for the Guineas but it could happen and hopefully that is the only reason O'Brien has mentioned the possible switch. The only other reason that would make sense is the one I'm wary of, if they're not entirely happy with his current form but they have to run him somewhere so choose the seemingly easier option. If they're as confident he's still as good as last year and want to give him the chance of proving it over 1m I just can't see the point in sending him to France.

Caravaggio as a Classic-mile winner going to stud would be as exciting as the aura surrounding Frankel.

Surely the winning the French version wouldn't give him anything like the same reputation as winning at Newmarket, which is another reason why running at Deauville makes little sense apart from the ground turning unfavourable at Newmarket.

Given what happened with Air Force Blue last year and even Johannesburg (both went from hero to zero in the space of a couple of runs at 3, which must have massively affected their stud value compared to if they had been retired at two) I would have thought they would be reluctant to run Carravagio anywhere that might see him beaten. I guess if they go for the New'Mkt Guineas and he flops they can simply say he didn't stay and hope it doesn't damage his stud value too much.

He reminds me a bit of Dilum - another big black horse who was outstanding over 6f (thrashed Dr Devious in the Coventry) in the early part of his 2 year old career but was not so good after.