Figgis you inadvertently left out the ending of the sentence which is important in my reasoning- Again I don’t really see the French Classic as less superior from a future stallion prospective in this instance...

In addition, on the choice I already stated:-

As a future stallion prospect the main priority set for Caravaggio is the all-important Classic-mile win. Obviously the more prestigious event that takes place on the Rowley Mile is preferred but if the French race looks more suitable to maintain his unbeaten status then the Hippodrome de Deauville-La Touques is where he will go, after all the Poule d’Essai des Poulains has current leading European sires Shamardal and his son Lope de Vega, and Coolmore’s own 2016 miler The Gurkha gracing the past winners roster.

On the following:-

I cannot imagine why they would want Aidan O’Brien to intimate Caravaggio will be joining Churchill and heading to the English Guineas at this stage of the game.

Why not?

This is alluding to connections inside knowledge regarding the capabilities of the pair.

I said, maybe so, but it doesn't change what I said, that's not how they usually campaign their considered best milers.


Like statistics are there for breaking, trainer’s patterns will change from the norm on occasions over time, and in this situation “45 miles per hour” Caravaggio is unique. This is only anchoring to a cognitive bias that all things will more than likely remain the same.

Nelson Mandela — “everything is impossible until it is done,”

The Bayesian Trap- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R13BD8qKeTg


if the French race looks more suitable to maintain his unbeaten status

But why would it if the horse is still as good as they thought last year? He'll either be a miler or he won't.


I think race suitability is dependent on favourable opposition and ground.


I cannot imagine why they would want Aidan O’Brien to intimate Caravaggio will be joining Churchill and heading to the English Guineas at this stage of the game.

Why not?

This is alluding to connections inside knowledge regarding the capabilities of the pair.


In the case of Caravaggio in reality being preferentially targeted at Newmarket by those in the know with strong connections to the bookmaking industry with access from all over the world: this would affect turnover on a horse you don’t really want to take a bet on, as can be inferred by those bookies offering the poorest price and maintaining it. Between now and the 6th of May is a long time to take cumulative multiple minor bets on the horse that go more or less under the radar. Funnily enough, on a side point, I wouldn’t think people in Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore and Australia would accept bet restrictions on their account in the way we do.

Some statements of intent even ambiguous ones are intimidating for other connections since one can only go to the well in top races in tip top condition so many times depending on the constitution of individual horses. Churchill and Caravaggio are by all accounts at present clear of the rest on reputation.

John Gosden on his entries- “None of them are in the Churchill or Caravaggio bracket at the moment”

To be honest Figgis this is what I see.

Air Force Blue advert;-

European Champion 2YO by WAR FRONT; The first time since 2001 that any two-year-old has won three European Group 1 races; Timeform Rating of 128p; “None of O’Brien’s previous champion two-year-olds has been rated so highly as Air Force Blue who is the best champion of his age group in Europe for nearly 20 years, with the exception of Frankel.” Timeform. What a load of tripe. His juvenile form is Swiss cheese to me.

St Nicholas Abbey:-

Aidan O’Brien is on record saying he made a big mistake training him for the 2000 Guineas.

Caravaggio or Churchill

The performance of the former in the Coventry was as impressive as anything I have ever seen in a two-year-old in recent times, while the latter’s form in the National Stakes over a non-stayer is suspect, as is his Dewhurst form for a number of reasons; improvement on the ground/super highway for 2nd and others under-performing or not staying. I couldn't give a monkey's about Churchill, and with the investment and timing with the Galileo trio, Australia, Gleneagles and The Gurkha I do not think Mr Magnier does either in comparison with Caravaggio as a prospective sire. In some ways Churchill’s prospects as a stallion even if he is successful in his Classic-year is reminiscent of High Chapparal (Racing Post Trophy, Epsom Derby, Irish Derby and Irish Champion Stakes, first to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf twice, successful Sadler’s Wells x Darshaan nick) but going to stud at just the same time as Montjeu’s first-crop three-year-olds were about to hit the scene and Galileo’s yearlings were to appear. I can see him shuttling far distances already.

His juvenile form is Swiss cheese to me.

I'd said all along on here that I thought he was overrated but even if he was he was better than what he showed in the Guineas, he went backwards.

Aidan O’Brien is on record saying he made a big mistake training him for the 2000 Guineas.

Yes, obviously when looking for an excuse after the event.

All this is totally irrelevant, as the only point that matters is connections were very confident beforehand but the confidence proved misplaced. They seem fairly confident in Churchill, but, as Tabor has openly said in interviews, even when confident you never really know. Knowing all that I just don't see how they would swerve the Guineas with Caravaggio if they're as bullish about his current form as they were last year, and that confidence was displayed in the market every time he ran. They might swerve it if they were going to keep him to sprints but not for another mile race.

I hope you're right as he's the only one I'd want to back, but I'd rather they swerve it if he's not in peak form. No matter how good any of us are at reading the form book, or like to think we are, and even though many are actually better at it than those connected with the horses, the fact is those connected have a huge advantage in that they know the current form and well being of their runners, and that often trumps the form book.

Madhu
I think it will take a bolt of lightning to stop him winning on any ground.

Then why are you queuing up at 28 - just take all the 8/1 you can before the bookies realise their mistake.

Have you had every penny you have on him, including remortgaging the house and taking out as many payday loans as you can?
If not then your 'can't be beat' posts have a hollow ring to them.

Please leave that type of comment for I123.

There is no doubt he showed the most latent talent of any juvenile last year but there are clearly valid doubts about him training on and his stamina - let alone the comments about him being aimed at France. If you think those fears are unfounded then the 8/1 will look very juicy come the day.

An impressive win by Al Wukair this afternoon in the Prix Djebel. He lost a few lengths at the start but flew past the other runners to win comfortably (without Gregory Benoist needing to resort to the whip) by a length from National Defense. André Fabre's unbeaten colt will presumably take his chance in the Guineas, and it will take a good one to beat him! The runner-up won't have been 100% wound up for today's race and will likely improve plenty for the run.

Replay of the race available here: http://www.paris-turf.com/actualites/prix-djebel-158600

Al Wukair is not bred to win a guineas imho. An extra 1f, fast pace and stiff finish at Nmkt will be a world away from todays Djebel. Would not personally even back him to come given how Fabre supports the French classics first and foremost.

I rate it as good as Churchill's win in last year's National Stakes, but that's still not top level form for me. Churchill's form was achieved as a 2yo so if he trains on you'd expect a few pounds improvement. The question is whether Al Wukair can improve on what he showed today. In his favour it was his first run of the year so he might improve for fitness and he travelled very well. I'm not so sure he was any better than the bare form on the day though as the others went off quite fast and committed for home early while AW was held up at the back some way off the rest. He got involved in the race late on travelling comfortably but took a while to take the lead. I didn't get the impression he could've quickened past any earlier and reckon that's probably as good as he is. Maybe he can progress again but I'm looking for something a bit more concrete. That said, of the likely runners at this stage Churchill's form looks the one to beat and he doesn't set an exceptionally high standard in my view, so I agree that 10/1 is a fairly generous price, however I see that's been cut already.

Seems like a nice horse. I'd question whether or not he has the constitution for a guineas at this stage. Might be one for the foret.

a decent performance from al wukair and he  he looks as tho he could improve for the extra furlong of the gns ,the 2nd has also run well and should also come on but may not come over to newmarket  ,the obrien pair still the ones to beat but al wukair has shown he has trained on and 8s is probably a fair price now ,as he will probably be shorter come the day .

jm123 11 Apr 17 14:13 Joined: 16 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 10 | Blogger: jm123's blog
Just dont see a son of Dream Ahead winning a guineas ie staying a mile well enough in top company. His dad looked like he should stay a fast and furious guineas down the line when he was running as a 2yo and then had some bubbles popped in a dewhurst before non staying/running below par in the st james palace the next summer. He of course went onto to win July Cups and Forets afterwards which is more where i see Al Wukair in the future personally. Andre Fabre is one trainer i would almost guarantee to put egg on my face but I do see Al Wukair as more of a sprint bred at Top G1 levels and weve seen a few with this kind of breeding in the guineas over the years who dont win the race. Even Kingman was arguably outstayed against his sprint tilted pedigree over the fast and furious stiff finish guineas mile. Its no suprise that Derby types have a generally better record than the July Cup sorts in the guineas imo & im not so sure Al Wukair is really bred to get the Guineas mile well enough to win on the assumption there will be at least 1 other G1 miler or Derby type lurking of which there will be whether its churchill or otherwise. I guess the fabre runner is an ew price where you can be sure to at least get a good run for the money but i do think there will be at least one too good at this trip. Id have Al Wukair pinned as a horse that is going to come between 2nd-5th come the day on what i know and what ive seen yesterday.

10 posts in 7 years so i am inclined to respect your view, but what about his mother?

There is plenty of stamina on the dam's side and a mile will suit him well. You could argue that he won't be good enough to win a guineas but to argue that a lack of stamina will cost him is nonsense in my view.

I would be more concerned about how he will travel through the race. He had to be niggled along early yesterday, but maybe that was just greenness and he will improve for the experience and travel better in the Guineas because he may struggle to pick them up if he doesn't.

Well we agree to disagree then Jack. I think there are valid concerns that the nature of the Newmarket mile is what he is bred for at G1 miler level so i dont think its nonsense at all.

I hope Al Wukair will come between 2nd-5th (I'm on Churchill and Caravaggio at double digit odds) but he was impressive yesterday; I was also on Kingman and I'm hoping for better luck this time.

I like War Decree too because he's improved throughout last season. He has drifted in the betting hopefully he'll be out soon in a trial in Ireland.

Im suggesting he is a sprint-miler on pedigree & that these types are often found out in a Newmarket Guineas where the mile early 3yo season rides more like a 9f race. If he does fail but proves himself later in the year at G1 miles then id argue it probably was due to stamina at Newmarket (ala Kingman) as whilst Al Wukair could have the pedigree to win a St James Palace stakes, Prix Foret etc i think the newmarket test in may is a different beast and challenge altogether. Year after year people underestimate it and i just dont see Al Wukair has the breeding on either side to really relish it despite any visual impressions & trainer talk yesterday. Lets see time will tell.

I expect and hope Churchill does beat him, but if he is beaten in a close finish it won't be because he doesn't truly stay the mile at Newmarket but rather that he was just not good enough.