A great run from Peace Envoy in the Morny yesterday, running on well and making up four lengths in the final furlong and would have got up in another 50 yards. Step up to 7 furlongs looks obvious for his next run.
He is still available at 33/1 for the Guineas and I don't know what this colt has to do to get noticed by the layers.

As I suggested in an earlier post, it's unlikely that Caravaggio would start off over 7f next year.  More likely to go straight to the Guineas.

With doubts expressed by O'Brien about the horse's stamina they may want to test the waters over 7f (a clear indication that they're not sure about a mile), but none of his other Guineas winners had a prep race.

A muscle twitch that happened 10 days ago but he's ok now, but whether he'll make the Middle Park next month is unsure.

I think connections will call it a day for this year even if he's ok to run in the Middle Park just to be absolutely sure for next year as there is nothing to be gained - he's already proven he's the best 2yr colt by a long chalk. Next year's 2000G is the target, if successful over a 7f race prior.

I believe that a horse who wins a 7f race well, at least maintains the same winning distance to the 2nd and gallops all the way to the line - unlike Lady Aurelia in the Prix Morny - the chance of that horse getting/staying over 8f is significantly increased compare to one that has only won well over 6f. This will also allow connections/punters to measure the abilities and potentials of other runners too.

The Middle Park is over 6f (not 7f) - a distance Caravaggio has won twice with ease - hence it is insignificant whether Caravaggio runs this year or not. However, when he's a 3yr old his chance of staying 7f/8f would be greater (naturally) given his maturity and training, I'd have thought.

Anyone have any thoughts on Seven Heavens for the Guineas? He looks a very smart colt to me and a stiff mile should be just right.

I'm not sure if Caravaggio's possible absence from the Middle Park due to his muscle spasm is a good thing or not for those of us hoping to see him line up in the Guineas? If he'd run in the Middle Park it's highly unlikely he'd have been turned out a fortnight later on the Rowley Mile for the Dewhurst. Reading recent comments by AOB it seems that the Coolmore boys regard Churchill as their bona fide Guineas horse at this stage of his & Caravaggio's careers. They have no doubt that Churchill will get 1 mile+ and being by Galileo I'm sure they expect him to get a mile & a half next year. As for Caravaggio, it is significant that the Middle Park, rather than the Dewhurst was his no.1 target. I believe that Churchill's next target is the 7f National Stakes at The Curragh in 11 days time. If we wins well, he'll no doubt head to Newmarket 4 weeks later... BUT.... If he didn't run well (or got beat), is it possible that they could take the bull by the horns & see if Caravaggio is as good as (or better) over 7 furlongs as he is over 6? From a selfish point of view I would love to see him in the Dewhurst. In fact I think it's imperative that he tackles 7f as a two year old if I have any hope of him lining up in the Guineas. As has been mentioned numerous times on here, AOB is highly unlikely to run him in the Craven or Greenham at the start of next season as a prep and I have massive doubts about him going straight to the Guineas without ever tackling 7 furlongs in a proper race. So for me, it's the Dewhurst or bust!!

O'Brien's Minardi and Orpen both went straight to the Guineas (both beaten) without ever tackling a 7f race beforehand. Of O'Brien's other fancied Guineas runners only Giant's Causeway had a 7f prep race. As stamina was obviously in no doubt with that runner it must've been used as an aid to getting him fully fit. Unless Caravaggio is difficult to get fit in the spring it seems highly unlikely Coolmore will waste their time on a 7f prep that proves nothing as far as the mile is concerned. I agree with Sea Pigeon63 that without a run over 7f this season Caravaggio's Guineas prospects diminish.

The 2nd 'fav', Churchill, is running in the 3.45 at the Curragh today against a solid yardstick in Mehmas and Psychedelic Funk, both over 7f 1st time.

Churchill is 6/1 with Laddies (Caravaggio 5/2) but as short as 5/2 Paddies and Betfair.

I managed to get 2 lots of £20 at 6/1. Let's hope he makes the race along with Caravaggio next May.

Figgis

It does not pay to over-analyse a horse or race as it is not necessary and horses are not machines or human beings - they do have a 'clown' onboard that usually directs and/or dictates their fate.

Churchill is maturing, understands the game more and able to interpret what his 'clown' would like him to do given a change in the 'clown's' behaviour or actions.

Churchill is still workmanlike but then he's always been like that, but he gets the job done more effectively and clinically these days to achieve his 'clown's' objective ie getting to the finishing line 1st.

cant see cravaggio going anywhere near the guineas

Figgis

I think you could be in the wrong sport, even the 'bankers/traders' got the vote of Brexit wrong and their fingers burnt - those lazy ones who were still in bed expecting a 'No' note.

I've backed Caravaggio at 8/1 and 10/1 and Churchill at 12/1 as a 'saver' early just in case Caravaggio is proven a non-stayer, and after today with given present info again at 6/1, and happy about it; I'd done the same with Minding especially for the Oaks - what price was Minding on Oaks day? The same with Idaho for the Voltigeur and Leger; there is value out there but one has to find it, and get it right one is in the money big time.

The question of whether a horse trains on or not is not Churchill specific - that is a chance one takes betting antepost. If Churchill makes the 2000G at Newmarket next May he'll be 2/1 with Caravaggio, and odds-on without especially if he comes through his trial successfully. And at the moment he does have a good chance of doing so given what is on show.

If Churchill makes the 2000G at Newmarket next May he'll be 2/1 with Caravaggio, and odds-on without especially if he comes through his trial successfully.

I'd suggest you're following the wrong sport if you think Churchill is likely to be given a trial

Churchill looks like the champion 2yo

Only two outstanding candidates for this race (so far) ie Caravaggio (flashy/scintillating/impressive/stamina?) and Churchill (workmanlike/clinical/stays); the price of 5/2 and 6/1 for either, bookie dependent; both are from the AOB stable. And there does not seem to be anything in France that is making the wave over there.

The time factor of 8 months may seem a long time but we are already into Sept, and post the Leger signalling the beginning of the end of the 2016 flat season with a new one commencing in earnest sometime in January - who'd have believed that? All being well, the prices of these two colts could only go down till their trials, and at 6/1 for either, surely there is value to be had from either unless one is a non-supporter of the colts and/or anti antepost punter. And come Guineas day if both make the race their prices would more likely be between even money and 2/1 (at best) unless a 'star' comes out of the woodwork unexpectedly - two  'bullets' for the price of one is not a bad position to be in, agree?

All being well

if both make the race

unless a 'star' comes out of the woodwork


Already enough reasons why 5/2 can't possibly seen as a value bet.


till their trials

It's long odds on at least one of them won't be having one.

Indeed, Churchill is their Guineas horse, a bonus if Caravaggio lines up too - two bullets are better than one.

a couple of interesting Dewhurst entries yet to make their debuts with entries in maidens this week - Executive Force (Haggas) entered at Yarmouth on Thurs and Newbury on Fri and Crystal Ocean (Stoute) at Newbury on Sat, nicely bred but looks more like a middle distance pedigree.

I see Caravaggio is as short as 5/2 in places which is borderline criminal - I s'pose you could argue that his price props up Churchill's to some extent but 4/1 is hardly generous.