Nothing like finding out everyone has moved on, well almost everyone. Doh! And of course there are those who think only their view matters. But hey - ho.

I am a punter who forms an opinion. Sometimes I am wrong and sometimes right, that's punting for you. You form an opinion based upon your interpretation of the facts. Some may agree and some may not. That's punting for you.

My opinion is that the Eclipse was a farce. Which horse ran to form? If you use Countermeasure as a guide then none did. Except maybe Countermeasure.

The horses that beat him should have beaten him further according to the ratings and those he beat, except Bravery, he shouldn't have beaten. So something has to give. If you therefore write this race off as an unreliable guide then judging Hawkbill on his previous win should he run close in the KG it would, in my opinion, make it a poor race.
On the other hand through My Dreamboat, Found and Postponed Hamkbill could be a good thing. Through Western Hymn and Postponed Hawkbill could be a good thing. If they ran to form.

Did The Gurkha stay? AOB thinks possibly but he is dropping him back to a mile. I don't think he did but then again he may be over rated. Does Time Test stay? He has won over 10f but as everyone knows if you have optimum conditions and are much superior to the opposition 'class'will help you to stay. Something John Gosden said in the RP. Considering Charlton ran him in the Queen Anne instead of the POW perhaps Charlton is not that sure either.

Was the Eclipse truly run? I, and many others, do not think so. If it wasn't truly run then surely it must have been falsely run. The position of the pacemaker at the 2 furlong marker would back that up in my opinion.

What does anyone else think? Which horses in the Eclipse definitely ran to form? Was the race truly run? Getting that opinion correct is where money is made.

Impossible 123 . Did you make a typo with Hawkbill's rating at 132? His official rating is given as 122 in the RP (up 10 lb) which seems right to me. 132 would be a bit rich, I think.

Figgis. Hawkbill reminds me of Daylami and Azamour, somewhat, both seemed best at 10f but managed to win the KG


brigust1 Welcome back although I too am an infrequent visitor. I have my doubts also  about the value of the Eclipse form but I couldn't say that Hawkbill, who has been very progressive, couldn't improve again and he might well reach a level of form that would be good enough to win the KG in an average year. Like Figgis, I'm not convinced that Postponed has improved but lets see what other opposition there is.

Thanks Rease I came over for Ascot and read that RC was preferring the QA to the POW which I was more interested in and so as he wasn't in that I thought he had run in the QA.

Hi Sandown. I could be completely wrong about Hawkbill that's punting for you. If we knew the truth or the future we wouldn't be on this forum I guess.

All true Figgis but I suggest you don't know the answer either. It will only be your opinion and, unlike you, I believe you are entitled to it. And you will see I never picked your opinion apart. Why would anyone do that. It is just an opinion. If you knew everything and were never wrong I guess you wouldn't be on this forum either. But maybe some friendless creatures may still be.

I spend a lot of time out of the country so missed the Eclipse and therefore couldn't offer anything prior to the race but I think you will find this is about the King George not the Eclipse, and the rest of the time I cannot be bothered being abused by the insecure when all I am doing is proffering an opinion. Sometimes I think I will put down my views in the hope that perhaps people do grow up. Then maybe they don't.

At least I am prepared to make my thoughts clear and unambiguous. No sitting on the fence. If I am proved right or wrong then that's punting. It doesn't mean I am anything other than a punter who is prepared to form an opinion and put it forward for others to consider. This is a horse racing forum, isn't it?

You make think it is tiresome Figgis but then, if you do, why did you spend so much time dissecting what I have said in every detail? The two do not go together. It is a forum. It is not only your forum. Do you understand that. Not everyone can match your standards. Now that would be tiresome.

In fairness, should have a go at answering the questions as opposed to just correcting you.

The Eclipse was the fastest race on the card in terms of relative time but it should have been as it was a Group 1 whereas the others were a Group 3, two Listed races and the rest handicaps.

According to collateral form for their other races this season and factoring in the weight allowances in those races, My Dreamboat, Western Hymn and Time Test did run pretty much to form - my initial post race reaction was that Time Test was disappointing but on reflection I'd give him another (last!) chance on fast ground because the limited race evidence suggests he's much better for it and his generally level headed trainer is absolutely adamant that he is. My Dreamboat was probably trying to back up quickly enough after the Prince of Wales plus the stable form has dropped off a touch. Western Hymn, well that's probably about as good as he is (perhaps any progress he might have made has been curtailed by the bad attack of colic he had).

I think The Gurkha ran well and was just beaten by an improver who perhaps saw the trip out a little better than him - and maybe was a bit more battle hardened and used to a scrap.

So whilst there are plausible excuses/reasons to suggest My Dreamboat, Time Test and Western Hymn might not have run up to their absolute best, their proximity to each other suggests none of them ran poorly.The pace was adequate. I don't think it was the best renewal of all time but I don't think it was a farce - the winner was/is perhaps a little unfashionable but I can see him continuing to improve and surprise.

you will see I never picked your opinion apart.

Preceded by this

I cannot believe you are considering Hawkbill for the KG

At least I am prepared to make my thoughts clear and unambiguous

Well all I've gathered from your post is Hawkbill should not even be considered for the race. He can't possibly finish in the first four. But IF he does then you're still not wrong, it must be the worst race ever.

I think you will find this is about the King George

Yes it's about the KG. Apart from Hawkbill not being good enough to finish in the first four what is your opinion on the race and the betting? If you're so sure he shouldn't finish in the first four then you must have an opinion on the rest? Following your logic before the race then you can't think it to be the worst race ever or you'd give him a chance? If he does finish in the first four then you've already made your mind up that it must the worst KG ever. That would mean you were wrong about at least four horses you thought were better than him? Personally I'd rather own up that I got one horse wrong rather than be so misguided as to overrate four others but each to their own

^Knit picking.

My opinion is based on this moment in time. If only two run and he is one of them then that is different. At this moment in time I couldn't have Hawkbill on my mind as things stand. If, as appears, likely he will be a short price for a place then I would consider that a good betting possibility.
Why would I think that? Because I think the Eclipse flatters him hugely and his other form is not great. Of course I will wait until the day but if Bf put up prices of less than evens for a place at any time I may well be dipping into the piggy bank. That is what punting is, isn't it? Looking around for opportunities and going for it.

I will give you a more detail view on the KG nearer the time, if I am around this is just an early marker. It may be all I need.

Figgis
I thought that AZAMOUR would be as good at 12f but not so confident about Daylami. He was beaten the year before. But, like you, I backed him on the basis of the paddock - he looked v.well,
and the way he went to post. Happy days.

Sandown, yes you're right he was beaten the year before, I'd forgotten that. I had never backed him in any of his previous wins until that KG. Yes happy days indeed, Godolphin were a force and I'd say unlike those dominating now they were more punter friendly and some nice prices were available to those of us not in the know.

If they run, they have been entered, then I think Wings of Desire and Erupt both have stronger chances. The vibes around WofD suggest he is held in high esteem and has performed well so far with the form franked. Erupt had Countermeasure miles behind last season and it was a pretty strong Gr1 he was 2nd in the other day. That is a starter but I will wait until nearer the time. As I said before there were only 7 and 8 runners the last two seasons and I certainly don't think Hawkbill would have won either of those, irrespective of his rating.

Sandown,

Hawkbill is rated 132 and Wings Of Desire 126 for the Great Voltigeur in the RP, the former having to give the latter 2lbs and Idaho a massive 5lbs. As such there is a fighting chance Hawkbill could run in the King George VII & QE II race - Wings Of Desire carrying 8st 9lbs - where he could be receiving 10lbs from Postponed, I believe.

Impossible123, those are revised ratings adjusted to 10st so it appears the RP have him on 123. The 3yos carry 12lbs less than their elders in the KG.

I thought I said he wouldn't be placed? I think he is another one of those horses who was in the right place at the right time. Nothing in the race could have won it but something had to. Things were wrong for The Gurkha, wrong for Time Test, wrong for My Dreamboat and wrong for Western Hymn. It happens that way sometimes. A race nothing can win but something has to.
It was the same in Big Oranges race the other day. Exosphere couldn't win it having disappointed, The Grey Gatsby couldn't win it running over a straight 12f, Elite Army couldn't win it after being beaten in a handicap and Second Step couldn't beat the winner on last year's form. I didn't back Big Orange but he did have everything going for him that day even though I didn't think, and he probably wasn't, the best horse in the race.

I thought I said he wouldn't be placed?

So you did, fair enough, my mistake.

A race nothing can win but something has to.

I agree these races happen from time to time. I don't think that was the case with Hawkbill but it's possible and a reasonable stance to take. However, what is not reasonable is to give a dismissive opinion on a horse's chance in a future race compared to the likely opposition but declare beforehand that if the horse does run better than you predicted then you must've been wrong about all his opponents rather than the horse in question.

That is your opinion Figgis and you are entitled to that although I think you are completely wrong

Wrong about what exactly?

Can't you 2 just pm each other, was a good read

Grow up Figgis ffs. You are acting like spoilt schoolboy. I proffered an opinion about a horse race on a horse racing forum. Woe is me. No wonder these forums are desert islands. I haven't been on this forum for ages yet nothing changes. I spend the best part of 24 hours answering questions about why I think a horse will not win a race ffs.
Of course the questions, if you want to call them that, all come from the same source, so nothing new there.

I came over for a couple of days for Newbury races not to waste my time debating, if you want to call it that, with someone with an infantile attitude.

I PROFFERED MY OPINION ABOUT A HORSE RACE FFS. That's all. I never committed treason or treachery. 

When I see a horse win a race and I think it may be over rated as a result I see that as an opportunity to lay next time because its price may be shorter than it should be. Sometimes I am right and sometimes I am wrong.

When I see a horse meeting in a race and finishing down the field when it should have gone close (Spark Plug in the Royal Hunt Cup comes to mind) then I want to be backing it under similar circumstances next time because it may be a bigger price than it should be.

I thought Hawkbill won the Eclipse by default and therefore may be a shorter price next time than it should be.  That is all ffs.
In less than a couple of weeks I may be better off or I may be worse off. That's punting.

Will I come back on this forum again? It's a great pity imo.

I thought Hawkbill won the Eclipse by default and therefore may be a shorter price next time than it should be

No you didn't, that only came after you were pushed on the subject. You said you couldn't believe Hawkbill was even being consideration for the KG, his form was too awful to be placed, regardless of the price. Yet if he did actually win it must be the worst KG ever. A world of difference.

Hi guys. Just passing through for Newbury races.

I cannot believe you are considering Hawkbill for the KG. His form is awful and surely this would be the worst KG ever if he were even placed. In the Eclipse he beat 2 non stayers who hated the ground and a pacemaker (not by far) who had previously been a distance behind Erupt. The race was falsely run on ground only he managed and from a forward position required to win. His previous form is also dreadful beating Prize Money well beaten since. Occasionally a Group 3 horse will pick up a Group 1 by circumstance alone and my guess is the Eclipse was one of those.

That is what I wrote Figgis pointing out clearly why I think he won by default not your mangled, twisted version. You should be ashamed of yourself Figgis, it does not become you.

What utter rubbish. Why am I wasting my time?

There is no price on here to lay so I cannot comment on his price. I don't know exactly what will be running so neither you nor I know whether the race is of good quality or not. With or without Hawkbill.
I believe if the race is of better than average quality Hawkbill will not win or even be placed. If, however, the race collapses to one of less than average quality things may be different. That is what ante post racing is all about.

You are so interested in disseminating my views you are missing the whole point about ante post racing. There is a lot of calculated guesswork involved.

I have been  drawn into a pointless debate about a view on a horse in a horse race.

I won't change my view and I guess if the horse is supplemented that on the day a lot of the racing press will say exactly what I have said in that the Eclipse was a bit of a farce and unreliable guide to the result of the King George and if he runs I will be laying him. Win and place. So I hope he is supplemented soon because sadly I will not be in the country at the time.

That is all I have to say on the matter. I have wasted far too much time unnecessarily while in the company of good friends and it really isn't worth it.

quite funny all this, you never said what price you were prepared to lay hawkbill at brigust, just so we can dot the I's and cross the T's