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Eclipse - Sandown 2nd July
Eclipse - Sandown 2nd July
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*Hawkbill
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Time Test only just beat the pacemaker 2L,that tells me they didn't go fast enough today for the closers.
AOB "always viewed him(Gurkha) as a miler,lorra speed". Roll on Goodwood!We should see the Gurkha at his best,use that kick on an easier track. |
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The Gurkha quickened and went ahead of Hawksbill but the latter outstayed him towards the end. Unlikely ever to see The Gurkha run in a 10f race again; he just ran out of puff in the last 1/2 furlong I think.
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The race looked no better than an ordinary Gp2 race beforehand and still looks that way afterwards. Seems like The Gurkha will be one of those horses where excuses will always be made, he's nowhere near O'Brien's past best milers and I'd again have him as one to oppose in the Sussex but unfortunately it looks another weak affair at the moment.
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I was never a fan of The Gurkha as a "king of the mountains" type,racing on stiff tracks on soft going.It is a speed/turn of foot colt imo,as we saw in France on good going.
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The horses he beat in France though just weren't very good, if First Selection had raced today The Gurkha would've brushed him aside as in France.
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The only elder horse yet to be tested is Postponed, but that will most likely come in the 'Arc' with Harzand, USAR and Minding in the field. Hopefully, AOB will send Idaho to the King George VI & QEII later this month to get a better handle on Postponed.
The Gurkha is no world beater and this race was an afterthought. But no worries, I think his backers today will have a very good chance of a return from The Sussex Stakes. |
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To quicken like that in any French Guineas off a slow pace on top of the ground with the best France has to offer in the race shows what the Gurkha is all about...that turn of foot.
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wd winners
another average grade 1 and the gurkha found little when asked, i wouldn't say he didn't stay but considering hawkbill ran on the heat most of the race and deserves extra credit for that, it was disappointing that the gurkha found so little when moore gave him the office i did respect the winner pre race i just didn't think he won that greater race at ascot, he fools you a tad as he only just does enough but he was nothing if not game here and continues to progress, i see no reason to believe he has to have cut in ground, it will certainly be interesting to see if they lock horns again this season maybe in the irish champion stakes |
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Always looked like being a weak renewal (hence my OP) and with weather not helping that's exactly what we got.
The Gurkha stayed ok just wasn't good enough, which given the big age for weight allowance at this stage of the season is disappointing. Coolmore shoukd have run Minding here instead of the pointless cakewalk she had last week. |
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If sound, The Gurkha will definitely take up his Sussex Stakes engagement at Goodwood to try and wrestle back/redeem his reputation as the Top Miler in Europe by beating Galileo Gold as it'll mean a massive boost to his stallion value and stud fee. And the 'Coolmore' boys will back him as if defeat is out of the question I'm 100% certain.
If Moore messes up (again) it could be 'sayonara' for Moore as a 'retain' jockey for Ballydoyle. |
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The Gurkha, settled,travelled,quickened and battled but not quite as well as Hawkbill.
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I agree with AOB, the ground and distance were more conducive for Hawksbill than The Gurkha but at a mile and good ground The Gurkha will put Hawksbill in his place and so will Galileo Gold.
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Hawkbill over a mile, I don`t think so.
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Time Test fans need not be too disappointed.I thought before the race the only chance he had was to get well prominant,track pacemaker,get first run cause his turn of foot wasn't going to happen today.Leave pacemaker at home,let him make the running on softish going.
My Dream Boat needs the race at this level to suit a Closer,"held up" didn't figure in a winner saturday. The Gurkha on soft going stiff tracks!not for me.All about gears not stamina.I'd like to see him have another try at 10f with track/going to suit.He settles well,York good to firm ideal. Hawkbill had the run of the race imo on a day where horses who liked to race prominantly had an advantage.could be anything but Jury still out for me. |
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Think that was a belting run from Time Test. Going was genuine soft and he's ran into an improving 3yo. The Gurkha is just overrated on the performance of his France win.
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Wonder if they will look at the King George with Time Test if it comes up good to firm, or is it straight to York for the Juddmonte!
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Either Countermeasure improved 33 lb if we are to believe RPR's , in which case he must be a certainty in his next handicap, or the RPR's for the race are distorted in order to make sense of the race.
Ignore Countermeasure and the revised ratings would appear reasonable. With him in, they are not. In this instance the time ratings make more sense putting Countermeasure on 87 (+6 vs OR) with Hawkbill on 93. Who are we to trust in this instance? |
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I rate that the ground was slower for the latter races and have a reasonable Gp2 standard figure for the race. On time figures I have Hawkbill up 11lbs and The Gurkha down 2lbs on his SJP run. I don't believe it was a slowly run race and reckon Countermeasure ran the race of his life, probably helped by the conditions and forcing tactics and I wouldn't back him to run as well again. For me this is simply a flaw in the way racing is thought of in terms of form ratings. In any other sport it is accepted that players/teams can occasionally perform much better than usual and aren't necessarily expected to repeat it, they are judged more on their average form. Whereas in racing a horse has to be form rated on its best run.
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Countermeasure does put a spanner in the works when trying to rate the race but pacemakers often finishes closer than they should as they are allowed an easy lead and in soft ground, getting past and then away from them is difficult. If Time Test ran to 10lb below his best on good ground, you would probably get a realistic rating for the others. Looking back at Countermeasure, he might easily be a 95 horse on soft as he ran quite well on the AW when allowed to lead and all of his other races were run in France where the pace is often very slow.
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From a time rating standpoint, we have another race over 10f to compare the Eclipse with. One hour after the Eclipse, Gibbs Hill and White Shaheen ran to a s/h just over 3 secs slower than Hawkbill.
The RPR ratings for GH/WS were raised to 88/91 (+9/+8 vs OR's) and +6/+4 vs PB RPR's which on the face of it is not unreasonable. Their official ratings were 79/83. The RP has given these horses TS ratings of 65/68 implying that the race was run at a slower pace than the form ratings would suggest. Using this race as the anchor,and using the TS figures used, I would have expected the TS for the Eclipse winner to be 89 but the actual TS given was 93. Like Figgis said, I might have expected the going to be slower for the later race, not higher as implied by this difference. However, we are only talking about a difference of 4lb which can be explained by other factors such as WFA so I'll let that discrepancy go. Assuming that the time for the later race was NOT slowly run and in fact was fully up to official ratings,then using that as the anchor going allowance for the Eclipse, I would have Hawkbill on 104 which puts Countermeasure on 98 (+17 vs OR).I could not justify the later h/cap race being rated any higher and therefore I cannot rate the Eclipse any higher, on time. To rate the Eclipse on collateral ratings and putting Hawkbill on 123 with Countermeasure on 114, is to my mind stretching things somewhat. In short, there must be a strong wealth warning on these ratings. I cannot accept an explanation for Countermeasures' hugely increased run/rating as one of those things that can happen when a trail blazer can put up a never to be repeated ratings which can therefore be overlooked. To my mind the form of the Eclipse is highly suspect. As for Countermeasure, he may be better than he was previously assessed. He certainly looks like a good horse and on breeding and with his connections, he might be as good as that run suggests. We must remember that there was not a change of going, tactics or a new trip,for this horse. I look forward to seeing him run again. |
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I found it difficult to rate Countermeasure before the race as on a few occasions he'd been employed purely as a pacemaker and it was obvious he hadn't always been given the opportunity to show what he could do. Nevertheless, even though I didn't expect him to run so well I don't see anything so unusual as to make the form suspect. I can think of dozens of races where horses ran way above their average form ( just as I can with competitors in other sports). One of the earliest times I can remember was when Mtoto put up a great time in his first POW, the second horse was Amerigo Vespucci, which might'vs cast a doubt as to how good a performance it was. I don't have the form to hand but I'm sure AV was made fav for some race afterwards but I don't recall him ever running as well again. Mtoto on the other hand went on to show just how good a piece of form it was.
For me this is a shortcoming of employing strict form ratings. I think people who rate on times are more prepared to acknowledge that runners occasionally do perform well above their average, whereas form ratings compilers often try to make everything fit. |
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Your memory is pretty good Figgis if you can recall a run from 1986 but you are correct. Amerigo Vespucci ran to a TF time figure of 118 against Mtoto and although he didn't win afterwards either in '86 or 87 he did run to a time figure of 112 subsequently in 86. At the end of the year he was rated 112 by TF and 98 at the end of '87.
Generally, you don't see such large increases in PB in one race other than early in a horses life after just one or two runs. AV was also a 5yr old in 86 so I would have raised a question mark at the time. Perhaps I did, I can't remember. I know that I followed Mtoto from his first 3yr old win at Sandown and whilst he got beat at Longchamp he didn't owe me anything. Let's just say that for me the jury is out on the Eclipse form generally and the rating of Countermeasure until such time that he runs again. If he is very short on his next run, I'll watch but I'd be with him if he wasn't very short and is not raised by 10-15lbs or more. |
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Sandown, it was 1987, the reason I remember it clearly is it was because of that performance that I paid my first visit to a racecourse, Sandown Park, purely to back Mtoto to beat Reference Point, who I'd backed ante post for that year's Derby. It was a good early period for me, but there have been many poor patches since just to even things out for any aftertime vigilantes
 . I take it the 118 timefigure was Timeform? Personally I was never a fan of their timefigures, I thought it was a Gp1 time performance at the time, although with more experience behind me now I probably wouldn't be as gung ho about his chances as I was back then.Back to Countermeasure, he had only one run as a 2yo in June and it appears he was expected to win but didn't. Then I guess he had some kind of setback as he didn't reappear until the following year. After two disappointing efforts he was soon employed as a pacemaker where he was given no chance to run on his merits. Apparently he was then gelded at the end of the year and switched to Charlton. His first run for the yard was promising even though it didn't point to him running so well in the Eclipse. I don't think it's unusual at all to see an older horse finally fulfil some of the potential it had early on. Maybe he's now 'turned a corner' and can go on to repeat that form, but in view of his history it wouldn't be any surprise if this turned out to be just a rare good day. Even if he does remain in good form he still hasn't proved he's got what it takes at the business end of a race so unless he gets a perfect setup he might find it difficult to win, even in a lower class. Also I don't think it was an especially good run anyway, it was a Gp1 in name only in my view, the form of the front two is just an ordinary Gp2 level and he was beaten over 4 lengths by them. I suppose some people will wait to see what happens to Countermeasure next time then upgrade or downgrade the Eclipse based on that but I think it's a mistake to revise a race around one beaten horse. |
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I thought it was a Gp1 time performance * from Mtoto that is.
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Mtoto, Reference Point and Tryptych, what an Eclipse? Truly sensational, a race to treasure forever! Sadly, no more races of that kind anymore.
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Countermeasure didn't want to blast off in front just to be ignored by the rest of the field,therefore it was not a race run at a fast pace,Countermeasure get's an easy uncontested easy lead on a track suiting horses racing prominantly.Still did well to hang around for so long though.The time of the race was similar to the 7f and mile races on the card.
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That's handicapping over for Countermeasure as he's been given an OR of 110 up 29 lb. We'll see if its justified.
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Sandown, but while a repeat effort will prove it's justified a lesser effort will not necessarily prove the rating was wrong for that particular performance.
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True enough Figgis, but the horse has no choice now but to compete in Group races now or accept top weights in handicaps. I was hoping to make something from him but that's a forlorn hope these days. Even if I had spotted the potential before the Eclipse it would have done me no good. It's so hard to be ahead of the crowd sometimes. I don't suppose KA will be worried losing a potential handicap winner!
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I have an improved rating for him but at the same time I think it's more likely he won't run as well again. Even if he does hold this form I think it still might be difficult for him in a lower Group race as I think he might always be vulnerable in the latter stages of a race.
Regarding the winner, if he comes out of the race well then I think Godolphin will be missing a huge opportunity if they skip the King George. Even though it wasn't top Gp1 form in my view if he does stay then a repeat of this form with the big weight allowance would make him the one to beat at Ascot. Postponed's form this year looks vastly overrated to me, yes he's looked good but I still haven't rated him any higher than when winning last year's King George and that was a well below average renewal. I'm not convinced he's a better horse with Varian than Cumani, he has to be worth taking on, the rest look rubbish for a Gp1 field so Godolphin should go for it. |
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Figgis, what's your thinking on Hawkbill's stamina for 12f? It's hard getting sectionals from Sandown but I've used a marker to get an idea. I would say that the pace was all in the final 3.5f i.e. from the turn into the straight, so it wasn't a stiff test at the trip because of that.
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Hawkbill would be a better test in the King George & QE II Stakes for Postponed than Highland Reel - next best in the rating but who was comprehensively beaten in the Sheema Classic but is no better off in the weights; Erupt, post a very good effort behind Silverwave is another that could give Postponed a run, if he runs but the rest are of no consideration, I think - all things being equal. Hence, Postponed is only at best 8/13 with bookies.
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I know very little about making anything more than basic ball park predictions from pedigrees. After some early dabblings in pedigree analysis I decided it wasn't anything I could use effectively enough to justify the time spent and frankly didn't find the subject that interesting. That's not to suggest that others can't do it better and I'll leave that sort of analysis to them.
Regarding the racecourse evidence I admit I don't know one way or the other if Hawkbill is likely to stay. I've always thought a good time win as a 2yo over a mile was a good pointer to middle distance prospects but the piece of evidence for Hawkbill over a mile last year are inconclusive as it wasn't a thorough test. He can race keenly but a faster early pace would help there. It's possible that he could completely bomb out over an extra 2 furlongs but my thinking is that he could have so much in hand here that other than a bomb out he could run a few pounds below here and still win. As has been said before the ability to stay is often relevant to the opposition. Impressive as Postponed has looked I haven't rated his performances this year any better than his KG win last year. That wasn't a great race and I have Hawkbill's Eclipse win just 1lb behind it. However, I don't incorporate wfa allowances into my ratings so on wfa terms Hawkbill comes out with much the better chance, I have him 11lbs ahead on King George weight terms. I've said before that horses can improve at the age of 5, most don't but even the ones that do I'd say it's usually only within about 5lbs, occasionally one will improve more but they're relatively rare. Even giving Postponed the benefit of the doubt that he may have improved I would still consider Hawkbill has a likely 6lbs advantage. It's possible he may not stay a yard further than the 10f 21y the Eclipse was run over this year but with a rare opportunity for Godolphin to grab another Gp1 I'd take a punt. |
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*relative to the opposition
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Hi guys. Just passing through for Newbury races.
I cannot believe you are considering Hawkbill for the KG. His form is awful and surely this would be the worst KG ever if he were even placed. In the Eclipse he beat 2 non stayers who hated the ground and a pacemaker (not by far) who had previously been a distance behind Erupt. The race was falsely run on ground only he managed and from a forward position required to win. His previous form is also dreadful beating Prize Money well beaten since. Occasionally a Group 3 horse will pick up a Group 1 by circumstance alone and my guess is the Eclipse was one of those. |
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There's nowt like a bit of unproductive pessimism just to add to the discussion.
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For unproductive pessimism put fact based opinion. Nothing wrong with that unless this is a closed shop of course?
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surely this would be the worst KG ever if he were even placed
Opinion, no fact. In the Eclipse he beat 2 non stayers Opinion, and as Time Test has proved himself at the trip it's an absurd one. who hated the ground Opinion, again absurd as The Gurkha has proved he handles it. The race was falsely run Opinion. The race was not run at a fast early pace but it's a big stretch to call it falsely run, it was not. I've no problem whatsoever with anyone thinking Hawkbill is a poor bet in the King George based on his price, assuming he runs. However, what he have here is "I cannot believe you are considering Hawkbill for the KG", which implies he has virtually no chance and price is irrelevant. After this we have the 'get out' that "this would be the worst KG ever if he were even placed". So if he does actually achieve what the poster think is unthinkable then it couldn't possibly be that the poster was wrong, the horse was better than he thought, or maybe even has improved. Oh no, it must be the worst KG ever! There's no opinion from the poster beforehand if it is the worst KG ever, no opinions on what should win the race or what is a good bet at the price. In other words just the usual tedious downbeat crap. |