sintonian    27 Jun 16 20:04 
The Gurkha's price is rancid. There are afterthoughts in racing, and then there is this. They never at any stage considered this for him.

Sint, that would "appear" to us to be the case, but I'm not so sure.
Two weeks ago APOB made the "Sussex stakes" statement, but TG was 4/1 with Tabor's mob, and freely available at 6/1 elsewhere. I think its simply another illustration that believing what trainers say should come with a health warning these days...

There's loads of time between the Eclipse and Sussex so he may run in both. He had always been toured as a French Derby horse so it's not like the step up in trip is out of the blue.
It really does look a poor renewal with the ground scuppering his main rivals so hard to blame them on this occassion if they have changed plans.

I can't have My Dream Boat and I'm surprised he's so short. The POW turned into a crap race with the Japanese horse running below par and a hard fought narrow beating of Found, who hasn't trained on, doesn't amount to Gp1 form. This should basically be a two horse race between The Gurkha and Time Test. On past form I have The Gurkha marginally ahead by 2lbs at these weights. While I expect The Gurkha to get the extra 2 furlongs it remains to be seen if he'll be able to run exactly to his best mile form. It's not certain how TT will handle the ground but he handled cut well when winning his maiden and now he's more experienced I wouldn't be too concerned unless it came up heavy. He's only had the one start this year and while I don't believe it's a given he will improve for the run it has to be a possibility. As usual it's all about the price, I don't think the Gurkha has as big an advantage over TT as the betting suggests, TT represents some value and I'll be having a few quid on him.

Impossible yes but both times MDB won the early pace wasn't great and neither was the final time. I'll be surprised if he can win another Gp1 but we'll see on Saturday.

Could this be a possibility?

If the weather forecast is way off the mark and the ground improves to good/good to soft by saturday and Deauville, Cougar Mountain and Bravery all run, could The Gurkha be withdrawn then?

tricky affair this with no real stand out colt for the level...a reoccurring theme this season

looking at the horses running you certainly wouldn't say the gurkha was a good thing here but there really isn't much opposition...i struggled to weigh up his french guineas win but i actually thought he ran well in the st james palace with the winner getting first run and moore certainly didn't bottom the colt, in fact i thought he would come forward for the run and will certainly improve for the step up in trip...the more i go through the race the more i actually think he is quite a solid favorite with conditions likely to be ideal and his main danger unlikely to get his

time test is the most solid of the opposition, like my dream boat i have struggled with his form in all honesty and always have since his win in the tercentenary last year, when he was put down as a future grade 1 horse, i never actually thought he was that good but we are sifting through horses who have no right to be considered for a race of this nature...

my problem with him is the horses he has beaten, it just doesn't stack up with me, although you could argue his comeback run giving 5lbs was a career best against the rat, you could also argue though that that rival would prefer a tad more cut in the ground even though his form doesn't say so...anyway he is pretty solid and probably trained for this, his price is civil and i would certainly take him above my dream boat even on G/S i have just never liked him that much...will be interested what price those 2 horses are in a match bet

i have struggled to weigh up my dream boat but just to say he is a pretty solid/tough horse if just a low grade, grade 1 horse, his prince of wales win was solid enough in a poor renewal , he obviously didn't travel that well to france and he certainly wouldn't of been 16/1 for the TPOW without that running in france, as his comeback win was pretty fair considering his penalty, the japanese horse clearly bounced from that big effort but he picked up the decent yardstick filly quite well, although she had no chance to battle because of where he came from...

he is still difficult to fathom though for me, winning his 2 races off of a slow gallop, will a decent pace suit him more? or is he just slow, i just can't put a finger on him but 3/1 here makes limited appeal and kirby really had to ask for everything on the horse in order to win and i'd be surprised if he can back that effort up after just 17 days off, he is tough but i will be interested to see what he is to place lay on the day, although he has his conditions to suit again

the money horse hawkbill is improving nicely and just seems to idle in his races when hitting the front, they still haven't got to the bottom of him, although i thought that race last time was just a fair affair and although this is a weak grade 1 he still looks like he needs to step up considerably and at 6/1 it is tight at that price, he seems to act on any going and his sires horses do seem to improve, i haven't discounted him to get in the money

when will the headgear go on western hymn

at a price i quite liked deauville for this, like time test he isn't getting his ideal conditions, we will see with him he may get better with time

anyway boring but i like the gurkha and think he has plenty in his favour, he might just surprise a few with the step up in trip likely to be a massive bonus and may just give us a quality winner of the race

its hard for me to see why a lot of people are avoiding the obvious . time test , mdb are not top class horses theyre group 2 horses imo i would suggest tg .as you know i think is the best 3yo colt . he has a stamina pedigree ,he will get this easy . theres only one horse that is better in middle distance imo that being postponed .  his season will be a king george , arc , and perhaps a breeders cup turf .  im always happy to listen to the arguments regarding a race and keep an open mind . but i havent heard or seen anything here that gives me trepadation . for me only thing that beats him is tactics . love the opinions and its great to listen to them . im sure im correct on this occasion though . best of luck to ya . i got a little hunch on wimbledon that i expressed to rodrigo de triano that being madison keys will go well at 10-1 i wrote a little of her chances in "tennis" and the more i think about it the more i think she has a much bigger chance than 10-1 . just a caveat of value imo

I'm not a massive fan of Time Test objectively speaking. I think he's a bit jazzed up and overall I think he's a good group 2 horse. But he has won over course and distance, the ground last time was more like good to soft than the good to firm (from memory the time of the race was very good thanks to a good pace set by the favourite ridden by Hanagan) and he won his maiden with cut in the ground. I recall he put up a decent speed figure at Royal Ascot as well (Figgis/Sandown could confirm) and I think he did one good speed figure before that, maybe at Newbury (again Figgis/Sandown confirm?). He is also open to improvement given that last time out was surely a career best. I'm willing to give him an excuse for underperforming at York - Golden Horn did as well, the soft ground up there is horrible and tacky I consider it similar to Haydock but different to a track like Sandown perhaps due to the draining although didn't York invest loads into an drainage facility, any way I digress. The run abroad well maybe he was over the top or didn't travel over well plus the pace was slow so again he I think he's allowed an excuse.


I'm not a fan of My Dream Boat. I concur with Figgis in that Prince of Wales was a horrific affair given the Japanese horse ran below form. He normally wins at big prices as well which I don't like when they suddenly go off short in a group 1. I just think he's not top class and although he has won a Group 1 in name, I think he's more of an average group 2 horse who got lucky.


The Ghurka - I always take those big race margins in France with a pinch of salt for two reasons. You can get horses running on much better ground, it can be random like that and more so, the pace of those races is often questionable so he may have just got away with a cheap lead. Also the form of that Group 1 win looks pretty average to me. Whilst Ryan gave him a poor ride at Royal Ascot I actually thought he lacked the tactical speed at the business end of the race which was why the gap closed at the crucial moment. It also has yet to be seen whether he will definitely improve for the step up in trip.


I just don't like/rate Hawksbill. I could be wrong but maybe an Ascot type and I don't think is good enough here.


Western Hymn is actually worth a cover as although Group 1 level this isn't a good race and if the others don't perform/aren't as good as they appear he could surprise.


But overall I think Time Test is the bet. Further, the ground was good to soft early doors this morning and there have only been a few showers aside of a pretty warm muggy day. Tomorrow looks the same and Saturday looks predominantly dry and sunny. I think we could have genuine good ground come the race. I like the inclusion of the pacemaker in this race and I could see Test Test winning this, which is effectively a group 2 renewal in my eyes, be overhyped then do nothing.

Merely my musings. Good luck with your bets.

Teddy Grimthorpe described the ground in the U.S when TT was well beaten as ''horrendous''. He said the turf was patchy everywhere with big divots. If that is the case then it is no surprise a European horse didn't take to it.

swagger you say time test recorded a good time at ascot... in all honesty who didn't record a good time/speed figure that week at ascot?? the ground was rattling, still figgis and sandown will clearly be able to help you in this regard

Raining again at Sandown. Ground will definitely be more on the soft side than good/soft come racing tomorrow.
Can see MDB getting backed this morning.

It looks like we should get a good pace tomorrow. Coolmore have Bravery in the field but I wouldn't be sure how they're going to play him, they could try to set a moderate tempo thinking that the Gurkha's stamina is unproven but he'll have more speed than most at the end. However, after the SJP where there was no great early pace on you'd think they wouldn't want a repeat. Who knows, maybe he's in there to race on his own merits? None of this matters too much as Charlton has a pacemaker in for Time Test. As long as we don't see some of the dumb pacemaking efforts we've seen from the likes of Coolmore (where they go tearing off at a ridiculous pace and sensibly get ignored by the rest) then it should be a true test. This should sort the wheat from the chaff and in my view My Dream Boat is among the chaff, despite having just won a Gp1.

I can see why people have reservations about Time Test, it's true he hasn't put up a proper Gp1 performance yet but his latest run was his best run yet, it was a solid Gp2 performance in a Gp3 race and he might even come on a bit for the run, Charlton's Al Kazeem did in his winning year. The point is that the favourite hasn't yet put up true Gp1 form, that is Gp1 form usually of a standard to win an all age race. As Swagger says the French Guineas was as weak as you could get. Some people think he should've won the SJP and the sectionals point in his favour, maybe he should have but I'm not totally convinced. Whether he should have won or not it could only have been a narrow win and I still maintain that Galileo Gold's Guineas was the worst winning performance for years and I rate the SJP form the same.

Gun to my head, on these weight terms I'd have to side with The Gurkha, he's my highest rated but with only a 2lb advantage and the possibility there could be more to come from TT I'd be more than a tad concerned my brains would end up all over the floor. For me, however, it's not about picking the most likely winner it's about backing them at a price greater than the chance I think they've got. The Gurkha and MDB were both too short and created plenty of value on TT. I see that the market has now got closer to my way of thinking with TT and MDB changing places, but even if I hadn't already backed him I still think TT is the value with The Gurkha too short.

Friday's times for the two 10f races were both 9 seconds slow.Rain around this evening not helping to quicken it up. http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

My Dream Boat 6/1 for me

The Gurkha, even at 11/10 and 1st time against his elders the price is still very skinny, all things considered.

good luck gzp just like having an even 30

i think the prices will be closer together come post time if rain misses

Took a little bit at 6 on here earlier in the week about Time Test - ground a lingering concern but going stick reading before he won Brigadier Gerard in a good time was 7.0 whereas this morning it's 6.7 (so not a great difference, although admittedly it had the whole day to keep drying prior to the Brigadier Gerard in the evening).

It looks like New Bay's pacemaker has been transferred to Charlton for the main purpose of assisting Time Test so I like that level of planning too.

raining again, ffs

going changed to soft after race 1

agree, have n't looked it up but if memory serves me correctly 7f races were slower yesterday.

turned into test...pace collapsed very early in the straight.