Horse Antepost
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With many of the market leaders unlikely to run (Postponed, Fascinating Rock, Found etc) I have backed Wings Of Desire @ 16/1.
Very creditable run when an eased down 4th in the Derby, and better ground and 10f on a more conventional stiff track should be perfect for him.
No idea if this is the plan but if I were Gosden I'd rather go here than take on the front 3 at Epsom in the Irish Derby. He ran his Derby winners Benny The Dip and Golden Horn in the Eclipse so clearly likes it.
Depending on how the field shapes up he could go off closer to 5/2 imo.
Very creditable run when an eased down 4th in the Derby, and better ground and 10f on a more conventional stiff track should be perfect for him.
No idea if this is the plan but if I were Gosden I'd rather go here than take on the front 3 at Epsom in the Irish Derby. He ran his Derby winners Benny The Dip and Golden Horn in the Eclipse so clearly likes it.
Depending on how the field shapes up he could go off closer to 5/2 imo.
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Only for a few quid so nothing to shout home about earlier but great minds think alike-
The Gurkha 26 £7.72 £193.00 Ref: 68495820079 Matched: 16:20 15-May-16 The Gurkha 27 £4.00 £104.00 Ref: 68495820079 Matched: 16:20 15-May-16 The Gurkha 28 £0.28 £7.56 Ref: 68495820079 Matched: 16:20 15-May-16 Wings of Desire 34 £6.00 £198.00 Ref: 68319122406 Matched: 20:38 12-May-16 |
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I'd be amazed if he went of anything near 5/2.
I think JG said the Curragh is next. Time Test looks the obvious one to me. He'll run in the POW first but he's likely to go close in that, depending on how good the Japanese horse is. If all is fine after he looks made for the Eclipse. A top price of 7/1 is reasonable as there loads of doubtful runners in the race. |
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Having just seen Zarak finish second in the French Derby from a poor draw he looks a contender IF they want to supplement.
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Had a good think about The Gurkha but just too many questions
-> Highland Reel, Found, any of the Epsom runners who AO'B might want to drop back in trip, Sussex + PJM etc.. coming up The one thing I noticed from his post-Derby talk was he expects the horses who did well would improve. |
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I looked at Time Test Sint. He is probably the best of the English older horses at 10f (assuming Postponed doesn't run) but he's yet to convince me he is a real Group 1 horse (same thoughts apply to Cannock Chase, Intilaaq, Western Hymn etc). Obviously if he wins or goes very close against A Shin Hikari in the POW he will be favourite for the Eclipse. Again I'm assuming the Japanese horse doesn't enter calulations.
Be amazed if any of the French 3 year olds run in it. O'Brien bound to have runner(s) and The Gurkha could be the main one but so hard to predict what he will run. Clearly I may be wrong about WOD running as well and he may go to the Curragh, I was just going by past Gosden form and a hunch in the search for some value.  |
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He is still to convince at G1 level but he's only tried at it twice and you can find excuses for both of those runs. He's not got many miles on the clock either so room for improvement. I thought he did well under his penalty last time out beating Western Hymn who was hard fit from two previous runs and good course form.
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Actually, I can see him being an honourable second to this Japanese thing at Ascot ( I have backed both ante-post for POW, fwiw) and just incase he is, or if he wins, then he'll be favourite for Sandown. 7/1 is fair.
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Took some 10/1 on Time Test on here this morning as it looks like my initial post was probably wrong and WOD will go to the Currgah or maybe have a break and go the Voltigeur/Leger route. Still think a decent 3 year old will have this at their mercy so O'Briens pick will probably be the one.
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yep, TT is just the best of the 4yo's at 10f imo. With rain forecast at Ascot though it could get soft and he goes straight here
 I hope not as i've backed him for both races. |
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The Gurkha is down to run in the St James's Palace Stakes on 14th June, if so, will it go again on 2nd July in the Eclipse against older horses? Maybe not, unless ground or welfare intervenes I think. If The Gurkha does not line up in the Eclipse could Minding come into the equation? Probably, as I believe 10f suits Minding best despite her winning the Epsom Oaks. If so, will it mean Minding missing the Irish Oaks on 16th July? Frustrating for backers but not for bookies.
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I'd fully expect Coolmore to aim one or more of their 3 year old colts at the Eclipse rather than Minding as they are in the market of making stallions.
Could Idaho be routed here rather than take on USAR and Harzand in the Irish Derby - he was in front two out in the Derby? |
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Minding was 4/7 for the Irish Oaks but is now very weak and sharing 'fav' with Even Song (6/4 from 5/1). Unless the well being of the former is in question I think she'd be destined for the Irish Derby or the Eclipse (more likely) with The Gurkha aimed at the Sussex Stakes instead.
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Using the Irish Oaks market as a guide I think Minding could be scratched from the Irish Oaks (16th July) and replaced by Even Song who'd won convincingly on saturday. If so, I'd expect Minding to turn up here two weeks earlier against the colts because I believe 10f is her optimum distance.
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I think it's highly likely Minding runs in the Eclipse because:
1. Due to last year's Coolmore 3yo colts not being a vintage bunch and their propensity to ship 'em off to stud asap, AOB only has 2 older colts entered in the race in Cougar Mountain and Highland Reel (neither likely to be good enough to win this surely?) 2. Found will surely be going on her long promised break soon? 3. Race likely to come too soon for 3yo colts after Irish Derby (they will want to run at least one of 'em in the Grand Prix De Paris too presumably) 4. Minding could conceivably run in both this and the Irish Oaks - there is a longer break between the two races than there was between the Irish Guineas and the Oaks albeit this is theoretically a tougher race being an all aged G1 over 10f 5. They can wait and see how the Irish Oaks shapes up - if So Mi Dar does n't make it either Even Song or Minding would surely go off odds on. They could run The Gurkha and he could still drop back to 1 mile for the Sussex Stakes but his credentials for the Eclipse don't look as good as Minding's. |
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It's extremely unlikely Coolmore will run Minding in the Eclipse and then the Irish Oaks just two weeks later when there is an able deputy in Even Song - all things being equal - when the stamina of Minding is still not 100% proven in a truly run 12f race despite winning the Epsom Oaks.
There's been no news from Gosden about the well-being of So Mi Dar (SMD) - no news is good news I hope - but if turning up in the Irish Oaks SMD will be a worthy opponent and probably be 'fav' against Even Song or even Minding, should Minding run. |
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I looked at the market yesterday snd theres a lot of non-runner fodder to take out of the top of it. The two I like are TIME TEST & FASCINATING ROCK, and given the odds and chances of a bit of cut then it has to be FASCINATING ROCK for me.
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Found has had a busy time so far especially in her last race hence most likely be rested for an autumn campaign again; Cougar Mountain and Highland Reel could be Coolmore's representatives but they'd no match for the likes of Time Test and Fascinating Rock. And given the kudos of this race in the breeding business Coolmore could decide to divert Minding from the Irish Oaks to here instead as she'll be a major player if so especially when Coolmore already has an outstanding candidate for the Oaks in Even Song, a convincing winner at Ascot last week.
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There's no way So Mi Dar would start favourite if Minding runs impossible - and given the current odds, I'm struggling to see how she starts favourite against Even Song (even though she's already beaten her).
There's also no guarantee that the Irish Oaks will be run at a strong pace - whatever way you slice it, Minding has won a Group 1 at 12f (in a race which everything went wrong for her) whereas So Mi Dar's best effort so far is a Group 3 win over 10f. Don't get me wrong, So Mi Dar has bags of potential and may well give Minding plenty to think about over 12f - but you're talking about a filly with bags of potential versus one who has already won 4 Group 1s. |
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^apologies, getting So Mi Dar mixed up with Swiss Range re. beating Even Song, always struggle with the Gosden fillies for some reason...
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O/T
ReaseHeath, Minding (M) or Even Song (ES), not both, will go to the Irish Oaks - AOB stated this was ES's intention post Ascot race - hence maybe why the market has reacted yesterday; if so, Minding could be Eclipse bound, not King George VI until the 'Arc', her 1st foray over 12f against the colts. I understand Minding has won 4 Gp 1 including the Epsom Oaks over 12f however, I'm still not convinced Minding is a 12f horse - 10f yes - if the race is run at a furious pace like the 'Arc' even though I think she'd end up there given her stablemates - apart from Order Of St George - are not up to it. I agree So Mi Dar (SMD) has yet to prove the potentials she possesses and/or stays 12f despite her beating of the colts and fillies over 10.5f in the soft prior to Epsom nonetheless she did it with ease and was not stopping at the end; SMD may not start 'fav' against Minding but neither will SMD be 5/1 - SMD was 5/2 and ES 8/1 - prior to their withdrawals in the Epsom Oaks. It's is likely SMD could start 'fav' against ES (without Minding) - currently 6/4 - in the Irish equivalent. My money will be on SMD despite backing ES yesterday at 5/1 for big bucks. |
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Minding would be a doubtful runner in the Eclipse if it is rattling quick ground. That aside, it is possible she could run at Sandown so will have a saver against my Time Test bet. Fascinating Rock would be doubtful too if it was proper summer ground.
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I am half wondering if they will now give Minding a mid-season break given the recent betting on the Irish Oaks market. They did the same with Found last year after Royal Ascot and Minding could now be aimed towards the Arc. I have just backed her at 8/1 for the Arc as there are no standout 3yo fillies this season, none as good as Minding anyway.
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Deauville being aimed at the Eclipse according to O'Brien.
Minding set to run in the Pretty Polly on Sunday which i find a little surprising. |
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Wings Of Desire is missing the Irish Derby but is going for the Grand Prix de Paris instead.
If the Gurkha, Minding, Fascinating Rock and Found all miss it then it looks very weak - really can't have Deauville. The long range weather forecast is not too bad - today is the only really wet day and late next week looks fine and dry. My Dream Boat actually looks fair vlaue at 12/1 on this seasons form but I've tossed a few quid on The Grey Gatsby at 14/1 - ran OK in the POW on unfavourable ground and that should at least bring him on. |
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yep, looks like I got it completely wrong with Minding.
It will be interesting to see if Jamie Spencer again partners Deauville in the Eclipse due to his connection with Jim and Fitri Hay because that is likely to allow Ryan Moore to ride Time Test. You can see why Coolmore cover all the entries the way this is shaping up - no entries for the Hamdan colts Massaat and Muntazah nor Foundation - they're probably all a bit light on experience but I wonder if there will be any supplementaries? |
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The probability of Minding running this weekend (26th) in the Pretty Polly over 10f is very unexpected and perplexing, to say the least, despite the significant change in the Oaks betting reflecting the unlikely participation of her there. Why the Pretty Polly....Gp 1 status? If so, why not the Eclipse next weekend....same distance, same status? Not conducive to the economics of stallion/breeding business perhaps, if so, great shame and sad for racing.
If Minding does run this weekend it definitely means The Eclipse is out given the proximity of both races; if Minding does not, The Eclipse is still a possibility - similar trip and status - despite the stated running plan for Deauville - because I firmly believe Deauville is not good enough against Time Test (good/firm ground) and/or Fascinating Rock (soft). There could well be a sting in the tail yet from AOB's statement today regards running plans for his horses. |
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Minding has had 3 tough races in the space of a few weeks. I'd say they give her a couple months off, after the Pretty Polly, then aim her at the Irish Champion en route to either the Arc or the English Champion. Agree that 10f is probably her optimum trip.
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It's not that much of surprise if they opt to run in the Pretty Polly tbf. It's against her own sex, she has no travel on a ferry and it supports Irish Racing on their biggest weekend of the year so far.
The current going at Sandown must be Soft? But the race looks like cutting up. It is Time Tests for the taking IF he get his ground. At current price I agree with Uncle that TGG might be the shortener, again provided the ground dries up. Can anyone confirm current going at Sandown? |
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Andrew Cooper @ACooperClerk 1h1 hour ago
Another 9mm @Sandownpark today, making 72mm (almost 3 inches) since June 12. Sprint Course v soft but Round taken it well and Soft in main. |
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Having a saver on Fascinating Rock at 9/1. And TGG with the hope it dries up. Nothing else worth backing at the mo, imo.
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The weather forecast between now and race day is mixed with occasional rain and sunshine. However, the day before and after the race, rain has been forecast with about 20mm by the following monday.
Guess it's hold your bets time once again if the performance of your selection is very much ground dependent. |
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How about US Army Ranger now?
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Well, we certainly got the ''value'' with Time Test at 7/1. Now a top priced 2/1, just need the weather to improve.
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It's only a week after the Irish Derby so would doubt it very much and he looks like a stayer not a speed horse.
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Ten days might be too soon to get over a bad scope. Anyway, I do not see UAR as a 10f horse myself.
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I have laid off my Time Test bet at 9/4 on here..the rain is unrelenting at the moment. Such a shame.
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O'Brien said "His scope just wasn't 100% clean today. It was a routine scope. Obviously it's a big pity.
"He'll have a little rest now and we'll see where we go from there." If they turn him out for next weeks Eclipse then the dirty scope must have been made up. |
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Again the inclement weather could have the final say. Neither Deauville (prefers good/firm ground) nor Highland Reel (not good enough) will win the Eclipse except Minding.
AOB, scratch Minding from the Pretty Polly at the weekend and reroute her here instead, and she'll definitely win for you and 'Coolmore'- it is a certainty! |